Intel +12.14%, Meta +11.34%, Marvell +5.38%: the three largest Monday gains in descending order.
Tuesday premarket: nine positive and three negative observations. HOOD -3.08%, MRVL -0.54% and META -0.15% were negative.
Timing matters: HOOD is a 04:31 ET print and PLTR is 04:25 ET. These are premarket observations, not synchronized 07:00 quotes.
New Monday business developments: Intel Googlebook models, Amazon delivery-partner spending and Nvidia infrastructure qualification.
Market-wide
Monday 21 September close
Stocks rose as oil and yields easedAP reported the S&P 500 at 7,764.70 (+1.5%), Nasdaq at 27,122.09 (+2.3%) and Dow at 52,048.83 (+0.7%). The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.95%. Source: AP final close (https://apnews.com/article/3cb34d37f609dde5fb94d695e9665869).
Monday 21 September sector context
AI and semiconductor strengthReuters reported a 4.3% semiconductor-index advance and Brent settling at $100.34. Interpretation: lower oil and yields can ease inflation and valuation pressures, but this is market context rather than proof of a single cause for each stock move. Reuters closing report (https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/wall-street-ends-sharply-higher-as-ai-optimism-reignites-and-treasury-yields-retreat-ce785adbd18bf627).
Tuesday 22 September early global session
A mixed futures backdrop after the rallyAP described mixed US futures and Brent below $100 in its early Tuesday global-market report. That report is contextual, not a live index quote; the per-stock snapshot uses the independently timestamped feed. AP, 22 September (https://apnews.com/article/de8c5f9659e44556e40e661f794b48ad).
Intel announced Core Ultra Series 3-powered Googlebook models from Acer, ASUS and Lenovo on 21 September. Availability begins 5 October in selected markets.
Major Monday move; Googlebook design wins
Monday close $121.78, +12.14% Monday range $114.93-$124.73 Volume 190.31m; feed average 123.75m; 154% of average Tuesday premarket +0.18% at 2026-09-22 07:00 EDT Close 14.45% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThe design wins create a route to processor sales, but announced models are not disclosed unit orders. They do not establish that the entire share-price rise came from this launch or that earlier memory-manufacturing talks have become a signed deal.
Source and event dateIntel, 21 September; availability 5 October (https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/client-computing/googlebook-launches-with-intel-core-ultra-series-3-processors.html)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Meta announced Petal on 21 September: a planned 7,000-km US-France subsea cable with capacity of one petabit per second, expected in service in 2029.
Major Monday move; Petal subsea infrastructure announcement
Monday close $741.25, +11.34% Monday range $679.60-$753.00 Volume 48.57m; feed average 24.14m; 201% of average Tuesday premarket -0.15% at 2026-09-22 06:23 EDT Close 5.66% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThis supports long-term network capacity, but construction spending and eventual utilization determine its economics. It is not near-term revenue guidance or a demonstrated explanation for the stock surge. Analyst price-target changes are deliberately excluded from this brief.
Source and event dateMeta announcement, 21 September; expected service 2029 (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/announcing-petal-meta-petabit-transoceanic-cable/)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Marvell announced its 2nm optical technology demonstrations for AI data-center infrastructure on 21 September. This is Monday product news, already flagged in the previous morning edition.
Major Monday move; Optical demonstrations at ECOC
Monday close $257.38, +5.38% Monday range $244.99-$261.18 Volume 21.38m; feed average 19.22m; 111% of average Tuesday premarket -0.54% at 2026-09-22 07:00 EDT Close 21.98% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersFaster connectivity can support AI infrastructure deployments, but demonstrations are not orders or revised earnings guidance. Repeating the event today does not make it a new Tuesday announcement.
Source and event dateMarvell, 21 September (https://investor.marvell.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1034/marvell-to-showcase-industry-first-2nm-optical-technology-demos-for-ai-data-center-infrastructure-at-ecoc-2026)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Nebius rose in Monday trading. The company newsroom reviewed on 22 September still lists its 8 September Palantir sovereign-AI partnership as the latest press release.
Major Monday move; Rally without a verified fresh contract
Monday close $232.80, +4.14% Monday range $221.30-$237.96 Volume 17.47m; feed average 17.01m; 103% of average Tuesday premarket +0.26% at 2026-09-22 06:23 EDT Close 22.36% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThe partnership is prior context, not a new Monday award. AI-sector strength does not itself establish improved utilization, customer commitments or margins. No new quantified company outlook was verified in the reviewed sources.
Source and event dateNebius newsroom reviewed 22 September; partnership dated 8 September (https://nebius.com/newsroom)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
The US Army announced a $48,094,071 ammunition-management software delivery order on 17 September. The award includes a 12-month base period and up to five optional years. Renewed coverage does not make it a 21 September award.
Major Monday move; Army story retains its September 17 date
Monday close $183.09, +3.07% Monday range $176.76-$183.38 Volume 21.95m; feed average 24.81m; 88% of average Tuesday premarket +0.52% at 2026-09-22 04:25 EDT Close 11.77% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThis is contracted work, but optional periods are not guaranteed revenue. No fresh Monday contract was verified in the reviewed sources. The premarket quote below is from 04:25 ET and is older than the other late-morning feed observations.
Source and event dateUS Army, 17 September (https://www.army.mil/article/295461/u_s_army_awards_contract_to_modernize_ammunition_management)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Nvidia named Tesla among the initial qualified battery energy storage providers in DSX Ready on 21 September.
Major Monday move; Energy storage in Nvidia qualification program
Monday close $375.30, +3.03% Monday range $371.07-$378.36 Volume 36.44m; feed average 36.57m; 100% of average Tuesday premarket +0.77% at 2026-09-22 07:00 EDT Close 24.76% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersQualification may help energy products reach AI-infrastructure buyers. It is not a purchase order, guaranteed deployment or site-level engineering approval. No contract value was disclosed.
Source and event dateNvidia company announcement, 21 September (https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/dsx-ready-ai-factories-power-cooling/)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Robinhood's official account-transfer offer runs from 21 September at 09:00 PT through 16 October. Eligible customers receive a personalized 1%, 2% or 3% match, subject to the offer terms.
Notable Monday move; Transfer promotion begins; early quote retreats
Monday close $123.30, +2.90% Monday range $121.50-$126.41 Volume 28.16m; feed average 25.00m; 113% of average Tuesday premarket -3.08% at 2026-09-22 04:31 EDT Close 19.86% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersPromotions may attract assets but also cost money; offer rates do not measure net inflows. The negative premarket observation is timestamped 04:31 ET, not 07:00 ET, and no verified company event establishes its cause.
Source and event dateRobinhood official terms; offer starts 21 September (https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/2026-Hood-Month-ACAT-Match/)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Nvidia launched DSX Ready on 21 September, initially qualifying battery energy storage and cooling distribution products for its AI-factory reference requirements.
Monday close $227.38, +2.30% Monday range $221.56-$228.50 Volume 109.48m; feed average 111.16m; 98% of average Tuesday premarket +0.05% at 2026-09-22 07:00 EDT Close 3.87% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersA qualification framework can reduce integration friction. It does not itself disclose incremental GPU orders, and qualified components do not replace site-specific engineering.
Source and event dateNvidia company announcement, 21 September (https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/dsx-ready-ai-factories-power-cooling/)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Amazon announced another $1.9 billion for its Delivery Service Partner program on 21 September, alongside safety and AI-assisted delivery initiatives. It says the support helps partners raise national average driver pay to nearly $24 per hour.
Notable Monday move; Delivery-partner investment
Monday close $258.45, +1.87% Monday range $253.60-$259.49 Volume 42.86m; feed average 34.44m; 124% of average Tuesday premarket +0.57% at 2026-09-22 06:38 EDT Close 10.01% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThe spending can support retention and delivery performance, while adding costs. The release does not quantify the net margin effect. These partner-program funds are distinct from the earlier direct-employee and Whole Foods pay announcements.
Source and event dateAmazon, 21 September (https://press.aboutamazon.com/2026/9/amazon-invests-another-1-9-billion-in-the-delivery-service-partner-program-with-new-safety-initiatives-and-ai-powered-technology)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Microsoft announced $1 million of Community-First Grants on 21 September for nonprofit projects in Washington state, initially accepting applications from King County organizations.
Notable Monday move; Community grants, not financial guidance
Monday close $501.61, +1.59% Monday range $491.33-$501.87 Volume 27.87m; feed average 20.52m; 136% of average Tuesday premarket +0.58% at 2026-09-22 06:51 EDT Close 9.41% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThis is a dated philanthropic announcement, not a cloud revenue update. It should not be presented as the cause of Monday's stock advance or a material revision to the company's operating outlook.
Source and event dateMicrosoft, 21 September (https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/09/21/microsoft-launches-1-million-community-first-grants-to-support-nonprofits/)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Google's 21 September Australian announcement describes Googlebook laptops integrating Android-phone features and Gemini. It says devices will reach Australian shelves on 5 October.
Notable Monday move; Googlebook rollout details
Monday close $354.97, +1.55% Monday range $349.10-$357.61 Volume 30.39m; feed average 27.84m; 109% of average Tuesday premarket +0.64% at 2026-09-22 07:00 EDT Close 13.13% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersHardware distribution can extend engagement with Google services and AI subscriptions, but bundled trials are not equivalent to paid conversions. The announcement gives no quantified group-level earnings change.
Source and event dateGoogle, 21 September; Australian retail date 5 October (https://blog.google/intl/en-au/products/devices-services/googlebook-the-laptop-australian-android-phone-owners-have-been-waiting-for/)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Apple's newsroom lists an Apple Music Hall opening in London dated 21 September. Its new iPhone, Watch and AirPods store-arrival event remains dated 18 September.
Minor Monday move; Music venue news; retail launch remains Friday
Monday close $338.98, +0.85% Monday range $333.05-$339.64 Volume 34.96m; feed average 48.71m; 72% of average Tuesday premarket +0.08% at 2026-09-22 06:59 EDT Close 1.62% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThe newsroom items establish events, not device sell-through or subscription growth. No fresh quantified financial outlook was verified in the reviewed sources; store photographs do not prove an earnings beat.
Source and event dateApple, retail event 18 September; linked Music Hall announcement 21 September (https://images.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/the-latest-iphone-apple-watch-and-airpods-lineups-arrive-in-stores-worldwide/)
Price evidenceTwelve Data: completed 21 September session; quotes fetched 07:02-07:04 ET on 22 September. Extended prints have individual timestamps and are not simultaneous.
Read-through
Broad gains, different business implications
Intel ranked first, Meta second and Marvell third by Monday return in this twelve-stock set. The ranking and six moves of at least 3% were calculated from the full preserved data block.
Interpretation: chip design wins and infrastructure qualification can support future sales, while delivery-network investment adds both operating capability and costs. None is an automatic earnings upgrade.
Older Palantir and Nebius partnership or contract coverage retains its original date. Analyst price targets and opinion pieces are excluded, so this brief does not claim to explain every part of Meta's rally.
Nothing material
NBIS · PLTR, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Evidence limits
No fresh Monday contract or quantified company outlook was verified for these names in the reviewed sources. Prior announcements remain dated explicitly. Premarket data is not simultaneous; particularly old same-day prints for PLTR and HOOD are identified rather than presented as live 07:00 prices.
All twelve daily chart series are current through 21 September. Some intraday intervals fell back to cached bars for AMZN, GOOGL, HOOD, INTC, MRVL, MSFT, NBIS and TSLA; those charts may lag and are not live quotes.
Earnings within 14 days
5 OctINTC / GOOGL Googlebook availability in specified markets, according to the 21 September company announcements.
16 OctHOOD scheduled end of the account-transfer promotion, subject to its terms.
Previous days · 34 archived
Mon 21 Sep 2026HOOD, MRVL, META, NBIS, AMZN, NVDA
The 30-second version
Seven of the twelve rose Friday; five fell.
Robinhood +9.12%: largest Friday gain of the twelve.
Meta -2.43%: largest Friday decline of the twelve.
Monday indications: Intel +5.43%, Robinhood +3.49%, Marvell +2.60%. Ten positive observations, Apple negative, and Palantir unavailable.
Fresh Monday: Marvell optical demonstrations. Earlier Intel talks and Nebius price changes keep their original dates.
Market-wide
18 September close
A mixed Friday finishAP final closing report (https://apnews.com/article/da0dbe004b6f83c36e7d1626a9741a92) reported the S&P 500 at 7,650.50 (+0.2%), Nasdaq at 26,522.55 (+0.4%) and Dow at 51,682.64 (-0.2%).
18 September trading context
Expiration can distort volume comparisonsReuters described semiconductor strength and quarterly derivatives expiration. Interpretation: unusually active trading need not represent a durable change in conviction. Reuters, 18 September (https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/wall-st-ends-mixed-as-oil-takes-a-pause-ce785adadc80f123)
21 September, early Asia/Europe hours
Trade talks and oil provide a different Monday backdropAP reported higher US futures after Sunday 20 September talks between Scott Bessent and He Lifeng. That is not evidence of a signed trade agreement. AP, 21 September (https://apnews.com/article/1f1a267bf4556c01513f506914eb6359) Reuters quoted Brent at $101.71, down 2.08%, at 02:13 GMT on 21 September amid hopes for diplomacy in the Iran war. This is a timestamped earlier observation, not a live quote. Reuters, 21 September (https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/oil-hits-over-1-week-low-on-hopes-of-boost-to-diplomacy-in-iran-war-ce785adad08df727)
Reuters reported on 18 September that Robinhood, Coinbase and Strategy rallied as bitcoin rose. Robinhood closed Friday up 9.12%.
Major Friday move; Crypto-linked shares rally
Friday close $119.82, +9.12% Friday range $111.06-$120.57 Volume 39.22m; feed average 24.54m; 160% of average Monday premarket +3.49%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:38 EDT Close 22.12% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersCrypto trading activity can support transaction revenue, but a stock-price jump does not measure customer volumes or earnings. The 17 September tokenization announcement is earlier context, not a new Friday approval of a Robinhood product.
Source and event dateReuters closing report, 18 September (https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/wall-st-ends-mixed-as-oil-takes-a-pause-ce785adadc80f123)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Intel fell 0.18% on Friday 18 September. Earlier context remains the 16 September report of SK Hynix cooperation talks and its 17 September statement that nothing company-specific had been finalized.
Minor Friday move; Early Monday rise; agreement still unverified
Friday close $108.60, -0.18% Friday range $106.40-$110.49 Volume 174.68m; feed average 114.45m; 153% of average Monday premarket +5.43%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:54 EDT Close 23.71% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThe early Monday quote shows a price increase, not proof of a signed agreement. The separate 18 September report about Solidigm considering a US NAND factory must not be relabeled as an Intel order.
Source and event dateBloomberg, 17 September; discussions first reported 16 September (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/sk-hynix-says-exploring-options-after-report-of-intel-tie-up-14031654.html)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Marvell announced its ECOC technology demonstrations on 21 September, including 2nm optical technologies for AI data-center connectivity. The program includes 400G-per-lane optical PAM4 and coherent optical technology demonstrations.
Friday close $244.25, +1.45% Friday range $235.96-$244.44 Volume 23.55m; feed average 19.19m; 123% of average Monday premarket +2.60%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:59 EDT Close 25.96% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThis is a fresh Monday product-technology event. Demonstrations can help customer evaluation but are not purchase orders, shipments or revised revenue guidance. The 17 September GlobalFoundries capacity agreement is a separate, earlier development.
Source and event dateMarvell company announcement, 21 September (https://investor.marvell.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1034/marvell-to-showcase-industry-first-2nm-optical-technology-demos-for-ai-data-center-infrastructure-at-ecoc-2026)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
On 18 September Meta disputed a report about fraudulent advertisements in Poland and described its anti-scam controls. It said verification would be required of all financial-services advertisers targeting Poland.
Notable Friday move; Company responds on fraudulent advertising
Friday close $665.75, -2.43% Friday range $660.80-$690.15 Volume 27.55m; feed average 20.88m; 132% of average Monday premarket +2.44%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:58 EDT Close 15.81% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThese are company statements, not independently established findings about the disputed report. Advertising integrity matters to trust and compliance costs, but this response supplies no quantified earnings revision and does not establish the cause of Friday's decline.
Source and event dateMeta company response, 18 September (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/prostujemy-fakty-o-walce-z-oszukanczymi-reklamami-w-polsce/)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Reuters reported on 17 September that Nebius will raise pay-as-you-go prices for selected Nvidia GPUs by 17%-21% from 1 October. Some CPU-only instances rise 25% and memory offerings about 41%; longer commitments can receive discounts.
Notable Friday move; September 17 pricing remains context
Friday close $223.54, +2.55% Friday range $210.30-$224.65 Volume 21.28m; feed average 16.76m; 127% of average Monday premarket +2.00%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:05 EDT Close 25.45% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThe 17 September pricing announcement is prior context for Friday trading, not a new Friday contract. Higher rental prices could improve revenue per chip if utilization holds, but discounts, hardware mix and costs affect realized margins.
Source and event dateReuters, 17 September; effective 1 October (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-as-demand-for-computing-power-soars-4906125)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
The Register reported on 18 September that former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson had joined Palantir as a UK senior vice president. The appointment comes amid scrutiny of its NHS data-platform work.
Minor Friday move; UK leadership appointment
Friday close $177.64, +0.79% Friday range $172.00-$177.75 Volume 39.23m; feed average 25.40m; 154% of average Friday after-hours +0.14%; Monday premarket unavailable; feed timestamp 2026-09-18 19:59 EDT Close 14.40% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThe hire may help government relationships, but it is not a new contract award or evidence that the existing NHS contract has been cancelled. Friday evening trading must not be mistaken for Monday premarket.
Source and event dateThe Register, 18 September (https://www.theregister.com/public-sector/2026/09/18/former-labour-deputy-tom-watson-joins-palantir-as-330m-nhs-deal-nears-break-point/5297426)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Reuters reported on 18 September that six auto-industry groups representing Tesla and other manufacturers urged President Trump to keep Chinese automakers out of the US market ahead of the expected meeting with Xi Jinping.
Minor Friday move; Industry trade-policy letter
Friday close $364.27, -0.53% Friday range $360.75-$370.90 Volume 51.82m; feed average 39.42m; 131% of average Monday premarket +1.39%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:56 EDT Close 26.98% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThis is a collective industry request, not a Tesla-only announcement or a new enacted restriction. Trade policy affects competition and supply chains, but the letter does not quantify Tesla demand or earnings.
Source and event dateReuters, 18 September (https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/auto-industry-urges-trump-to-keep-chinese-automakers-out-ahead-of-xi-meeting-ce785adadd81f020)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Apple's store-arrival update says iPhone 18 Pro, Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4 and AirPods 5 became available on Friday 18 September. The page carries a 17 September update label, but explicitly dates the retail event to 18 September.
Minor Friday move; New devices become available Friday
Friday close $336.13, -0.26% Friday range $332.53-$338.49 Volume 86.43m; feed average 49.16m; 176% of average Monday premarket -0.23%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:29 EDT Close 2.45% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersAvailability turns the launch into an actual sales opportunity, not proof of demand. Store photographs and marketing descriptions do not establish shipment volumes, a revenue beat or a change in margins.
Source and event dateApple update labeled 17 September; retail event 18 September (https://images.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/the-latest-iphone-apple-watch-and-airpods-lineups-arrive-in-stores-worldwide/)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Amazon's Whole Foods pay-and-benefits announcement was published on 10 September, although fresh press coverage appeared on 18 September. The company plans more than $230 million of investment, with hourly pay changes from 28 September and expanded benefits from 1 January 2027.
Notable Friday move; Whole Foods pay coverage revisits September 10
Friday close $253.71, +1.00% Friday range $251.88-$255.43 Volume 52.15m; feed average 33.21m; 157% of average Monday premarket +0.90%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:06 EDT Close 11.66% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThis is earlier news, not a new Friday spending commitment. Better compensation can support retention while adding costs; the announcement does not quantify the net operating-margin effect.
Source and event dateAmazon company announcement, 10 September; effective dates 28 September and 1 January 2027 (https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/workplace/whole-foods-market-pay-benefits-expansion)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Nvidia rose on Friday 18 September, when Reuters described semiconductor strength supporting the market. Its 16 September benchmark and data-center announcements remain earlier context.
Notable Friday move; Friday chip-sector strength
Friday close $222.27, +1.34% Friday range $218.03-$222.73 Volume 189.68m; feed average 113.69m; 167% of average Monday premarket +0.82%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:45 EDT Close 6.03% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersSector performance provides context but does not identify a unique company-specific cause. No fresh quantified financial outlook was identified in the Nvidia newsroom reviewed for this edition.
Source and event dateNvidia newsroom reviewed 21 September; earlier releases dated 16-17 September (https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Reuters reported after the close on 17 September that newly unredacted court filings contained executive comments publishers say undermine Microsoft and OpenAI's fair-use defense. Microsoft said the testimony was consistent with its defense and did not settle the copyright questions before the court.
Minor Friday move; September 17 copyright report remains context
Friday close $493.78, -0.80% Friday range $491.10-$498.65 Volume 39.54m; feed average 19.54m; 202% of average Monday premarket +0.12%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:50 EDT Close 10.82% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThe report appeared after Thursday's close and was available for Friday trading. These are litigants' arguments, not an infringement judgment or damages award. The underlying filing was not read directly; the detail is attributed to Reuters.
Source and event dateReuters, 17 September, 17:47 ET; filing made public Thursday (https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/openai-microsoft-executives-quotes-on-ai-training-threaten-copyright-defense-news-outlets-argue-4844240)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Google announced additions to its AI & Economy research program on 18 September, including academic advisers and new research leadership studying adoption, productivity and labor-market effects.
Minor Friday move; AI economics research team expands
Friday close $349.54, +0.64% Friday range $348.45-$359.44 Volume 47.53m; feed average 27.11m; 175% of average Monday premarket +1.23%; feed timestamp 2026-09-21 04:23 EDT Close 14.46% below the feed's 52-week high
Why it mattersThis is a dated research investment, not new advertising or cloud revenue guidance. It should not be conflated with the separate ad-tech remedy details disclosed on 16 September.
Source and event dateGoogle company post, 18 September (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/expanding-ai-economy-research-bench/)
Price timingTwelve Data regular session 18 September; extended observations timestamped individually. Early snapshot fetched 04:59-05:00 ET on 21 September.
Read-through
Separate Friday performance from Monday headlines
Robinhood led Friday's gains while Meta had the largest decline in this twelve-stock set. These rankings use the complete preserved daily snapshot.
Interpretation: crypto-sector activity, optical connectivity and trade-policy uncertainty are distinct themes. A technology demonstration is not an order, discussions are not a contract, and a company rebuttal is not an independent finding.
The early Monday feed is not the scheduled 07:00 ET snapshot. Palantir's Friday evening observation is explicitly separated from Monday premarket.
Nothing material
NVDA · MSFT · NBIS · INTC, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Evidence and chart limits
No fresh quantified Friday or Monday company financial announcement was verified for these names in the reviewed sources. Earlier developments are labeled by date, not recycled as new events.
All twelve daily chart series are current through 18 September. Some intraday intervals fell back to cached bars for AAPL, HOOD, INTC, META, MRVL, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR and TSLA. Those intraday charts may lag and must not be read as live prices.
Earnings within 14 days
21 SepMRVL ECOC optical technology demonstrations; not an earnings release.
28 SepAMZN previously announced Whole Foods hourly pay changes take effect.
1 OctNBIS previously reported selected cloud price increases take effect.
12 of the twelve rose Thursday. 4 gained at least 3%.
Intel +7.67%: the largest gain of the twelve.
Robinhood +5.16%, Marvell +4.81%, Nebius +4.12%. These follow Intel in descending Thursday return order.
Fresh Thursday events: Marvell capacity agreement, Nebius price increases, Palantir Army delivery order and Tesla-linked charging expansion.
Timing warning: this run started at 10:55 ET Friday. It reports the completed Thursday close; a reliable per-stock Friday premarket snapshot was not returned.
Market-wide
Thursday 17 September: broad recovery.
Stocks rose as oil and Treasury yields easedReuters reported closing gains of 1.14% for the S&P 500, 1.69% for Nasdaq and 0.62% for the Dow. This is the completed Thursday session, not Friday live trading. Reuters closing report, 17 September (https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-09-17/tech-leads-wall-st-higher-close-oil-eases-treasury-yields-dip)
Friday 18 September: earlier premarket context.
Reuters' 05:19 ET update described higher Nasdaq 100 futures as oil retreatedThat report predates the opening bell. It is background, not a current market quote or a substitute for unavailable individual-stock premarket observations. Reuters, 18 September, 05:19 ET update (https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/nasdaq-futures-lead-wall-st-gains-as-oil-retreat-eases-inflation-worries-4906888)
The Fed decision remains dated 16 September.
The target rate rose a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%Thursday's recovery does not undo Wednesday's hike. Interpretation: lower market yields and oil can support valuations even while the policy rate is higher. Federal Reserve statement, 16 September (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm)
Items · sorted by size
● INTCChart+7.67% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
Thursday 17 September extended Intel's advance after the 16 September Reuters report of talks with SK Hynix about US memory production. Bloomberg reported on 17 September that SK Hynix said no company-specific cooperation or US production arrangement had been finalized.
Major Thursday move · Rally continues; talks are not a signed deal
Thursday close $108.80, +7.67% Thursday range $104.70 to $111.37 Volume 148.93m; prior-20-session mean 91.48m; 163% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 23.57% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersA potential Ohio arrangement could improve infrastructure utilization, but the price move should not be mistaken for contracted revenue. Thursday coverage largely revisits Wednesday's negotiations; no signed agreement was verified.
Source and event dateBloomberg, 17 September; talks first reported 16 September (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/sk-hynix-says-exploring-options-after-report-of-intel-tie-up-14031654.html)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● HOODChart+5.16% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
On 17 September the SEC announced temporary conditional relief for certain tokenized-stock trading venues and liquidity providers. Reuters linked a rally in crypto-related shares, including Robinhood, to the announcement.
Major Thursday move · Tokenization relief supports the sector
Thursday close $109.81, +5.16% Thursday range $106.08 to $110.55 Volume 21.85m; prior-20-session mean 24.15m; 90% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 28.63% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersThe new framework may expand regulated onchain activity, but it is not blanket approval of every Robinhood product or a quantified earnings benefit. This is distinct from the 15 September allegations against two employees, which have not become findings of guilt.
Source and event dateReuters closing report, 17 September (https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-09-17/tech-leads-wall-st-higher-close-oil-eases-treasury-yields-dip)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
RegulatorSEC announcement, 17 September (https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-90-sec-issues-innovation-exemption-facilitate-trading-tokenized-nms-stock-request-comment)
● MRVLChart+4.81% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
GlobalFoundries and Marvell announced an expanded multi-year agreement on 17 September to increase silicon-germanium manufacturing capacity at Burlington, Vermont. The capacity supports optical interconnect products, including pluggable transceivers and near-packaged and co-packaged optics.
Major Thursday move · Optical connectivity capacity agreement
Thursday close $240.76, +4.81% Thursday range $240.00 to $247.89 Volume 20.91m; prior-20-session mean 23.67m; 88% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 27.02% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersSecuring manufacturing capacity reduces a potential supply constraint as AI systems need faster links between processors. The announcement does not disclose a contract value or revise Marvell's revenue outlook; manufacturing availability is not the same as realized customer demand.
Source and event dateGlobalFoundries company release, 17 September (https://gf.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/globalfoundries-and-marvell-expand-collaboration-next-generation)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● NBISChart+4.12% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
Reuters reported on 17 September that Nebius will raise pay-as-you-go prices for selected Nvidia GPUs by 17%-21% from 1 October. Some CPU-only instances rise 25% and memory offerings about 41%; longer commitments can receive discounts.
Major Thursday move · Higher AI cloud list prices from October
Thursday close $217.99, +4.12% Thursday range $209.65 to $232.85 Volume 30.68m; prior-20-session mean 16.39m; 187% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 27.30% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersHigher realized rental prices could improve revenue per deployed chip if utilization holds. List-price changes are not equivalent to the same percentage increase in company revenue: hardware mix, customer discounts, operating costs and occupancy all matter. This is fresh pricing news, not a relabeling of the 8 September Palantir partnership.
Source and event dateReuters, 17 September; effective 1 October (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-as-demand-for-computing-power-soars-4906125)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● PLTRChart+1.09% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
The US Army announced a $48,094,071 firm-fixed-price delivery order to Palantir USG on 17 September for ammunition-management software replacing nine legacy systems. The award has a 12-month base period and up to five optional years.
Notable Thursday move · Army awards ammunition software order
Thursday close $176.24, +1.09% Thursday range $172.61 to $177.88 Volume 23.71m; prior-20-session mean 28.86m; 82% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 15.07% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersThis is a quantified new delivery order, not an open-ended partnership announcement. Implementation supports the defense software pipeline, but optional years are not guaranteed purchases and the award is not immediate recognized revenue.
Source and event dateUS Army, 17 September (https://www.army.mil/article/295461/u_s_army_awards_contract_to_modernize_ammunition_management)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● TSLAChart+2.27% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
Forum Mobility announced four planned California charging depots on 17 September, adding 30 MW of heavy-duty capacity. Tesla will operate public Megacharging at three sites: Ontario and two Oakland locations. Forum also reported reservations for more than 330 Tesla Semis.
Notable Thursday move · Public Semi charging network expands
Thursday close $366.20, +2.27% Thursday range $363.22 to $374.12 Volume 38.83m; prior-20-session mean 39.32m; 99% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 26.59% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersCharging coverage can reduce an adoption barrier for electric trucks and support fleet utilization. The announced capacity is planned rather than fully operational, and reservations should not be counted as delivered trucks or recognized Tesla revenue.
Source and event dateForum Mobility company release, 17 September, 07:00 ET (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/forum-mobility-will-bring-additional-30-mw-of-heavy-duty-ev-truck-charging-online-with-four-new-california-depots-cementing-its-position-as-one-of-the-largest-hd-infrastructure-providers-in-the-us-302881287.html)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● AMZNChart+2.13% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
AWS announced ready-to-use energy and utilities workflows for Amazon Quick on 17 September. Integrations from industry partners aim to connect business data for tasks such as grid planning, asset management and drilling exploration.
Notable Thursday move · AWS adds energy-sector AI workflows
Thursday close $251.19, +2.13% Thursday range $249.24 to $252.73 Volume 30.34m; prior-20-session mean 31.94m; 95% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 12.54% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersIndustry-specific software can deepen enterprise usage of AWS, but this release provides no quantified sales commitment. The 16 September operations-pay increase and Generac generator agreement remain earlier context, not new Thursday announcements.
Source and event dateAWS company release, 17 September (https://press.aboutamazon.com/aws/2026/9/aws-announces-new-energy-industry-workflows-for-amazon-quick)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● MSFTChart+1.52% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
Reuters reported after the close on 17 September that newly unredacted court filings contained executive comments publishers say undermine Microsoft and OpenAI's fair-use defense. Microsoft said the testimony was consistent with its defense and did not settle the copyright questions before the court.
Notable Thursday move · Newly public copyright-case material
Thursday close $497.75, +1.52% Thursday range $493.17 to $501.47 Volume 17.82m; prior-20-session mean 20.18m; 88% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 10.11% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersThis is litigation evidence and opposing parties' argument, not a new infringement judgment or damages award. It adds uncertainty around licensing economics, but the after-close report cannot be presented as the demonstrated cause of Thursday's regular-session gain. The filing was not read directly.
Source and event dateReuters, 17 September, 17:47 ET; filing made public Thursday (https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/openai-microsoft-executives-quotes-on-ai-training-threaten-copyright-defense-news-outlets-argue-4844240)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● GOOGLChart+1.30% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
DOJ's 16 September announcement details ad-tech remedies including interoperability with competing tools, publisher data access, non-discriminatory bidding and monitoring. The detailed opinion was unsealed on 16 September; the earlier decision rejecting a breakup was on 2 September.
Notable Thursday move · Ad-tech remedy details, not a fresh breakup ruling
Thursday close $347.33, +1.30% Thursday range $343.89 to $349.50 Volume 19.20m; prior-20-session mean 23.99m; 80% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 15.00% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersThe operating restrictions may make it easier for publishers to switch providers and can add compliance costs. Avoiding a breakup does not mean there is no business impact. These are Wednesday disclosures discussed on Thursday, not a new 17 September judgment.
Source and event dateDOJ, 16 September; initial ruling, 2 September (https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/department-justice-again-wins-substantial-relief-against-google)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
Earlier rulingAP, 2 September: breakup rejected before detailed opinion (https://apnews.com/article/d294d31fee27c45b14d5ce2196cdd80a)
● AAPLChart+1.38% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
Apple's store-arrival update says iPhone 18 Pro, Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4 and AirPods 5 became available on Friday 18 September. The page carries a 17 September update label, but explicitly dates the retail event to 18 September.
Notable Thursday move · New devices become available Friday
Thursday close $337.00, +1.38% Thursday range $330.18 to $338.34 Volume 36.63m; prior-20-session mean 41.89m; 87% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 2.20% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersAvailability turns the launch into an actual sales opportunity, not proof of demand. Store photographs and marketing descriptions do not establish shipment volumes, a revenue beat or a change in margins.
Source and event dateApple update labeled 17 September; retail event 18 September (https://images.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/the-latest-iphone-apple-watch-and-airpods-lineups-arrive-in-stores-worldwide/)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● NVDAChart+2.54% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
Nvidia participated in Thursday's semiconductor rally. Its company newsroom lists a 17 September GeForce NOW gaming update, while the Vera Rubin MLPerf Inference benchmark preview and flexible-data-center alliance remain dated 16 September.
Notable Thursday move · Chip rebound with prior benchmark context
Thursday close $219.34, +2.54% Thursday range $217.15 to $219.91 Volume 93.96m; prior-20-session mean 129.94m; 72% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 7.27% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersThe prior benchmark release supports the product-performance narrative, but it is not a new Thursday order or revenue revision. Sector strength and easing market yields are context; the reviewed sources do not isolate a single cause for Nvidia's daily return.
Source and event dateNvidia newsroom reviewed 18 September; releases dated 16-17 September (https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
● METAChart+1.34% Thursday close · Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request
The reviewed Meta newsroom still lists the 16 September Threads podcast toolkit and the Meta One launch dated 15 September, updated 16 September. No new quantified 17 September company outlook was identified in those sources.
Notable Thursday move · Gain without a new financial announcement
Thursday close $682.31, +1.34% Thursday range $667.05 to $683.20 Volume 15.89m; prior-20-session mean 18.04m; 88% of that mean Friday premarket unavailable from the historical feed request Close 13.72% below the high over the fetched trailing 52-week window
Why it mattersProduct engagement and subscription conversion remain relevant, but a positive stock session does not establish an earnings upgrade. Earlier launch coverage retains its original event date rather than being counted as fresh Thursday news.
Source and event dateMeta newsroom reviewed 18 September; product events 15-16 September (https://about.fb.com/news/)
Price timingRegular prices are the completed 17 September session. This edition was prepared after the 18 September open, not at the scheduled premarket time. Current intraday quotes are not substituted for premarket.
Read-through
A broad rebound with several concrete company developments
All twelve tracked shares rose Thursday. Intel led the regular-session gains, followed by Robinhood, Marvell and Nebius. That ranking is calculated from the full twelve-stock daily-bar fetch.
Interpretation: easing yields can support valuations, but the company stories differ. Marvell added manufacturing capacity, Nebius raised selected list prices and Palantir won a quantified Army delivery order. None of those should be converted mechanically into an earnings forecast.
Do not confuse the clocks: Microsoft's copyright report appeared after Thursday's close, Apple's retail event is Friday, and the Google remedy details were disclosed Wednesday. This delayed edition does not describe Friday intraday returns.
Nothing material
NVDA · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Data timing and evidence limits
No fresh quantified Thursday financial announcement was identified for NVDA or META in the company newsrooms reviewed. Earlier releases are dated explicitly.
This run began after the US open on 18 September. Twelve Data daily bars were explicitly bounded to 17 September. Historical premarket requests targeted 04:00-09:29:59 ET on 18 September but returned no usable per-ticker bars; premarket and after-hours fields remain null, not zero. Volume averages are calculated from the preceding 20 completed sessions, and 52-week highs from fetched daily highs within the trailing 52-week window. These calculated baselines are not the quote endpoint's rolling-average fields.
Chart freshness: all 12 daily charts include the completed 17 September session. Some intraday intervals use cached data for AMZN, GOOGL, INTC, META, MSFT, NBIS, NVDA and PLTR; they are not a reliable live Friday feed. Check the timestamp shown on the chart.
Earnings within 14 days
18 SepAAPL retail availability of the new devices; an availability milestone, not earnings.
1 OctNBIS selected AI cloud list-price increases take effect, per Reuters.
19 NovMSFT previously announced dividend record and ex-dividend date; payment 10 December. Microsoft announcement, 15 September: https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/09/15/microsoft-announces-quarterly-dividend-increase-7/
Thu 17 Sep 2026HOOD, INTC, MRVL, MSFT, PLTR
The 30-second version
Robinhood -5.46% Wednesday: the largest fall of the twelve.
Intel +4.03% Wednesday: the largest gain of the twelve.
Nebius +11.05% Thursday premarket: the strongest premarket reading in the available snapshot.
Wednesday finished with 8 advancers and 4 decliners. All 10 available Thursday premarket readings were positive.
Palantir and Robinhood have no Thursday premarket print in this fetch. Their extended quotes are Wednesday 19:59 ET after-hours observations.
Market-wide
The FOMC decision is now a completed event: 16 September.
A unanimous quarter-point hike lifted the target to 3.75%-4.00%The 12-0 vote accompanied a statement describing solid activity and elevated inflation. <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm">Federal Reserve statement, 16 September</a>
The projections point to further tightening, not a promise.
The median projected year-end policy rate is 4.1% in both 2026 and 2027That compares with June projections of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. The 2026 PCE inflation projection rose to 3.7%. These are policymakers' conditional projections, not a committed path. <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm">Official projections, 16 September</a>
Wednesday closed lower for the broad US indexes.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, Dow 1.2%, and Nasdaq less than 0.1%AP reported that stocks reversed earlier gains during the press conference. These are closing changes, distinct from larger intraday declines. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/b082e78c9b572b6b0a94b8033a0ee96b">AP closing report, 16 September</a>
Thursday futures recovered ahead of the open.
Reuters reported S&P futures +0.74% and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.96% around its 05:31 ET updateThe recovery followed Wednesday's policy decision and is provisional. It does not reverse the rate increase or confirm the closing direction for Thursday. <a href="https://ca.investing.com/news/economy-news/wall-st-futures-rise-as-fed-rate-hike-lifts-longstanding-overhang-4842958">Reuters, 17 September</a>
The House passed a data-center energy-cost bill on 16 September.
The measure asks state regulators to consider who pays for added power infrastructureAP reported a 417-3 vote. This is House passage, not enacted law or an immediate uniform charge; its relevance is potential infrastructure-cost allocation. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/f073380caa61b720fa424590b5bc7c87">AP, 16 September</a>
Items · sorted by size
● HOODChart-5.46% Wednesday close · +0.61% Wednesday after-hours
Robinhood fell 5.46% Wednesday. The DOJ announcement is dated 15 September: two engineers were charged with allegedly trading cryptocurrency futures using confidential listing information. Wednesday coverage revisited those charges alongside the prior day's stalled crypto legislation.
Major Wednesday move · Fraud allegations and crypto-policy uncertainty
Wednesday close $104.42, -5.46% Session range $101.70 to $111.05, 9.19% low to high Volume 33.49m against 25.26m average, 133% of average Wednesday after-hours +0.61% at $105.06; 2026-09-16 19:59 EDT; no Thursday premarket reading in this snapshot Closed 32.13% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe allegations concern individuals, not a finding that Robinhood committed fraud. DOJ thanked the company for cooperating; the defendants are presumed innocent. Potential damage to trust and compliance costs is distinct from a demonstrated loss of customer assets or revenue.
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● NBISChart+0.96% Wednesday close · +11.05% Thursday premarket
Nebius gained 0.96% Wednesday and indicated an 11.05% rise at 07:03 ET Thursday. No new company release explaining that Thursday jump was identified in the sources reviewed. The newsroom still leads with the Palantir partnership announced on 8 September.
Minor Wednesday move · Large provisional premarket rise
Wednesday close $209.37, +0.96% Session range $208.46 to $220.40, 5.73% low to high Volume 13.36m against 13.65m average, 98% of average Thursday premarket +11.05% at $232.50; 2026-09-17 07:03 EDT Closed 30.18% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe move is a price observation, not evidence of a newly signed contract. AI cloud capacity remains sensitive to financing costs, power availability and customer utilization. The 8 September partnership is prior context and must not be counted again as fresh revenue.
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● INTCChart+4.03% Wednesday close · +2.92% Thursday premarket
Intel rose 4.03% Wednesday after Reuters reported on 16 September that SK Hynix was discussing US memory production with Intel, potentially using part of its Ohio facility. SK Hynix said no decision had been made.
Major Wednesday move · Reported US memory-production talks
Wednesday close $101.05, +4.03% Session range $99.29 to $104.42, 5.17% low to high Volume 119.11m against 96.07m average, 124% of average Thursday premarket +2.92% at $104.00; 2026-09-17 07:01 EDT Closed 29.01% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersA lease or partnership could improve the economics of idle or planned infrastructure. No signed transaction, price or production timetable was disclosed, so the market is valuing a possibility rather than committed earnings.
Source and date<a href="https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/sk-hynix-in-talks-with-intel-about-deal-to-make-memory-chips-in-the-us-for-the-first-time-sources-s-ce785bd2d881f52c">Reuters, 16 September</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● MRVLChart+3.61% Wednesday close · +2.79% Thursday premarket
Marvell rose 3.61% Wednesday during the 15-17 September AI Infra Summit. Its event programme includes inference and connectivity presentations; the underlying summit release was dated 9 September. No fresh financial outlook was identified in the reviewed programme.
Major Wednesday move · Connectivity rebound during the summit
Wednesday close $229.71, +3.61% Session range $224.58 to $233.77, 4.09% low to high Volume 16.27m against 18.13m average, 90% of average Thursday premarket +2.79% at $236.12; 2026-09-17 06:53 EDT Closed 30.37% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersInference infrastructure demand supports the business case for optical links, networking and memory connectivity. A product demonstration is not a booked order, and the share-price recovery alone does not establish a change in expected sales.
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● AMZNChart-0.99% Wednesday close · +1.39% Thursday premarket
On 16 September Amazon announced more than $1.5 billion of investment in higher US operations pay: eligible employees receive a $1 hourly increase, with minimum starting pay of $20 and average pay near $24. The increase takes effect 27 September, according to AP.
Minor Wednesday move · Higher workforce pay and data-center investment
Wednesday close $245.96, -0.99% Session range $244.30 to $249.26, 2.03% low to high Volume 33.32m against 30.03m average, 111% of average Thursday premarket +1.39% at $249.39; 2026-09-17 06:50 EDT Closed 14.36% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersHigher pay raises operating costs before any offset from retention, productivity or sales. Separately, Dow Jones reported a $2.4 billion Generac backup-generator agreement on 16 September, reinforcing the scale of data-center investment. The underlying filing could not be read directly. Neither announcement by itself establishes an earnings revision.
Source and date<a href="https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/workplace/amazon-raises-minimum-starting-pay-adds-grocery-banking-benefits">Amazon announcement, 16 September</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● MSFTChart-1.37% Wednesday close · +0.96% Thursday premarket
Microsoft fell 1.37% Wednesday despite its 15 September announcement of a $0.98 quarterly dividend, up $0.07 or 8%. It is payable 10 December to holders of record on 19 November; the ex-dividend date is also 19 November.
Notable Wednesday move · Dividend increase is dated Tuesday
Wednesday close $490.30, -1.37% Session range $487.23 to $495.97, 1.79% low to high Volume 16.61m against 17.74m average, 94% of average Thursday premarket +0.96% at $495.00; 2026-09-17 06:30 EDT Closed 11.45% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe increase is a concrete capital-return decision, but it is not a Wednesday earnings upgrade. A larger cash distribution does not remove sensitivity to higher discount rates or the capital costs of AI infrastructure.
Source and date<a href="https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/09/15/microsoft-announces-quarterly-dividend-increase-7/">Microsoft, 15 September</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● NVDAChart+0.82% Wednesday close · +1.43% Thursday premarket
Nvidia published its Vera Rubin NVL72 MLPerf Inference v6.1 preview on 16 September, reporting up to 3.7 times the throughput of GB300 NVL72 in the highlighted comparison. This is a company-reported benchmark result, not a customer revenue figure.
Minor Wednesday move · Vera Rubin benchmark preview
Wednesday close $213.90, +0.82% Session range $212.50 to $216.76, 2.00% low to high Volume 96.08m against 114.43m average, 84% of average Thursday premarket +1.43% at $216.95; 2026-09-17 06:59 EDT Closed 9.57% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersBetter inference throughput can strengthen customer economics and demand for new systems. The eventual financial benefit still depends on price, deployment costs, availability and actual utilization; the benchmark maximum is not a universal workload result.
Source and date<a href="https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/vera-rubin-nvl72-mlperf-inference/">Nvidia, 16 September</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● GOOGLChart-0.61% Wednesday close · +1.50% Thursday premarket
On 16 September Google announced expanded agentic-commerce tools, including Merchant Center AI performance insights, a Business Agent beta for YouTube ads, and simpler integration of its Universal Commerce Protocol.
Minor Wednesday move · AI shopping tools expand
Wednesday close $342.87, -0.61% Session range $340.64 to $348.40, 2.28% low to high Volume 18.86m against 24.75m average, 76% of average Thursday premarket +1.50% at $348.00; 2026-09-17 05:55 EDT Closed 16.09% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe products aim to preserve discovery and checkout activity within Google as shopping becomes more conversational. Revenue depends on merchant adoption and conversion; the announcement supplies no quantified incremental advertising earnings.
Source and date<a href="https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/shopping/google-shopping-updates-holiday-shopping/">Google, 16 September</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● METAChart+0.46% Wednesday close · +0.99% Thursday premarket
Meta announced new Threads podcast tools on 16 September, including episode cards, reminders and audience insights. Meta One was introduced on 15 September; an updated article date does not make that subscription launch a second new event.
Minor Wednesday move · Threads adds podcast tools
Wednesday close $673.31, +0.46% Session range $671.91 to $685.31, 1.99% low to high Volume 17.17m against 20.15m average, 85% of average Thursday premarket +0.99% at $680.00; 2026-09-17 07:01 EDT Closed 14.86% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe Threads tools may support engagement and creator retention but include no revenue guidance. For Meta One, the reported 15 million figure combines subscriptions and trials, so it cannot be treated as a paid-subscriber count.
Source and date<a href="https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/threads-expands-podcast-toolkit-for-creators-and-listeners/">Meta, 16 September; Meta One background, 15 September</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● PLTRChart+1.03% Wednesday close · +0.09% Wednesday after-hours
Palantir gained 1.03% Wednesday. The 8 September Nebius partnership remains prior context; no newly quantified 16 September contract or financial outlook was identified in the reviewed sources.
Notable Wednesday move · Software gain without a new quantified contract
Wednesday close $174.34, +1.03% Session range $168.96 to $174.76, 3.44% low to high Volume 20.90m against 26.89m average, 78% of average Wednesday after-hours +0.09% at $174.50; 2026-09-16 19:59 EDT; no Thursday premarket reading in this snapshot Closed 15.99% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe partnership may widen sovereign AI deployment options, but it includes no minimum purchase commitment that can be turned directly into revenue. Wednesday's positive return does not establish a new operating catalyst.
Source and date<a href="https://nebius.com/newsroom/palantir-and-nebius-partner-to-deliver-a-complete-sovereign-ai-stack-to-palantir-customers">Nebius and Palantir, 8 September</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● TSLAChart+0.42% Wednesday close · +1.35% Thursday premarket
Tesla gained 0.42% Wednesday. Reuters' 15 September report on NHTSA questions about Cybercab certification remains relevant, with responses due 30 September. No new financial guidance was identified in the reviewed 16 September reporting.
Minor Wednesday move · Cybercab regulatory deadline remains ahead
Wednesday close $358.08, +0.42% Session range $354.89 to $365.10, 2.88% low to high Volume 32.03m against 40.09m average, 80% of average Thursday premarket +1.35% at $362.90; 2026-09-17 05:37 EDT Closed 28.22% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersHigher borrowing costs can weigh on vehicle affordability, while autonomy valuation depends on deployment and regulatory progress. The earlier information request is not an announced recall or operating ban and should not be relabeled as a new Wednesday action.
Source and date<a href="https://www.marketscreener.com/news/us-agency-orders-tesla-to-answer-questions-on-cybercab-certification-ce785bddde80f524">Reuters, 15 September; underlying filing not read directly</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
● AAPLChart+0.32% Wednesday close · +0.55% Thursday premarket
Apple gained 0.32% Wednesday. Its 16 September newsroom item showcased iPhone 18 Pro photography; it did not supply sales or financial guidance. The previously announced 18 September product availability remains the next near-term milestone.
Minor Wednesday move · Product launch approaches
Wednesday close $332.41, +0.32% Session range $330.70 to $335.48, 1.45% low to high Volume 35.92m against 43.94m average, 82% of average Thursday premarket +0.55% at $334.25; 2026-09-17 06:29 EDT Closed 3.53% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersMarketing ahead of availability is not evidence of actual unit demand. Upgrade conversion, product mix and margins will determine the financial effect of the new devices and the 14 September software rollout.
Source and date<a href="https://images.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/celebrating-what-holds-us-on-iphone-18-pro/">Apple, 16 September; product-availability announcement, 11 September</a>
Evidence limitThe settled session is Wednesday 16 September. Extended-hours prices are provisional, with the observation time shown above. The interpretation is not a forecast.
Read-through
The index decline hid a mixed twelve-stock session.
Eight tracked shares gained and four fell Wednesday. Intel and Marvell gained 4.03% and 3.61%, while Robinhood lost 5.46%. The dataset therefore does not support describing every tracked stock as having fallen after the Fed.
Interpretation: higher interest rates can reduce what investors pay for distant profits and raise financing costs, while company-specific news can still dominate individual shares. Intel's reported talks, Amazon's pay investment and Nvidia's benchmark release should be distinguished from the common monetary-policy backdrop.
Thursday is a new session: the available premarket observations are all positive, but Nebius's 11.05% indication lacks a verified new company catalyst in the reviewed sources. A price surge is not proof of a contract or a durable reversal.
Nothing material
AAPL · PLTR · TSLA · NBIS, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Earlier news retains its original date
The 8 September Palantir-Nebius agreement, 15 September DOJ charges, Microsoft dividend announcement and Tesla information-request report are dated explicitly. Wednesday coverage does not make those events new.
Prices come from the same Twelve Data fetch preserved below: 07:02-07:03 ET on 17 September. Regular prices are for 16 September. Ten extended timestamps fall on Thursday from 05:37 to 07:03 ET; PLTR and HOOD are Wednesday 19:59 ET and are classified as after-hours. No premarket reading is invented for either ticker.
Chart freshness: all twelve daily charts include 16 September. Some intraday intervals for AAPL, HOOD, INTC, META, MRVL, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR and TSLA used cached bars and may lag the quote snapshot.
Earnings within 14 days
17 SepMRVL / INTC final day of the 15-17 September AI Infra Summit
18 SepAAPL previously announced new-product availability; <a href="https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/get-ready-to-experience-iphone-18-pro-the-new-apple-watch-lineup-and-airpods-5/">Apple, 11 September</a>
27 SepAMZN operations pay increase takes effect, per AP
30 SepTSLA response deadline for Cybercab certification questions, per Reuters
19 NovMSFT dividend record and ex-dividend date; payment 10 December
Robinhood -3.39% Tuesday: the largest fall of the twelve.
Marvell +1.32% Tuesday: the largest gain of the twelve.
Intel +3.62% Wednesday premarket: the strongest premarket reading of the twelve.
Palantir -0.71% Wednesday premarket: the weakest premarket reading of the twelve.
Tuesday had 3 advancers and 9 decliners. The Wednesday premarket snapshot had 10 higher and 2 lower readings.
Market-wide
US shares fell Tuesday, 15 September.
Higher oil and Treasury yields weighed on the marketThe S&P 500 lost 0.4%, the Dow 0.6% and Nasdaq 0.8%. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/b1b1bc9f943da62c6a639a8761b4eca3">AP closing report, 15 September</a>
Wednesday futures attempted a recovery.
Oil eased ahead of the Federal Reserve decisionReuters reported on 16 September that lower oil offered relief following a two-day equity slide. The policy decision remains a major risk to both discount rates and spending expectations. <a href="https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/wall-st-futures-edge-higher-in-countdown-to-fed-decision-4903179">Reuters premarket report, 16 September</a>
Items · sorted by size
● HOODChart-3.39% Tuesday close · +0.19% Wednesday premarket
On 15 September, Senate Democrats blocked advancement of cryptocurrency legislation, according to AP. This is a regulatory setback rather than a new Robinhood operating result.
Major Tuesday move · Crypto legislation blocked
Tuesday close $110.45, -3.39% Session range $105.86 to $112.85 Volume 28.63m against a 24.16m average, 118% of average Wednesday premarket +0.19% at $110.66; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:17 EDT Close was 28.21% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersA delayed regulatory framework keeps uncertainty around crypto products and transaction activity. The stock reaction does not itself measure a change in trading revenue.
Source and date<a href="https://apnews.com/article/e3caf262dc138147941787299e5f0a66">AP, 15 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● INTCChart-0.05% Tuesday close · +3.62% Wednesday premarket
Reuters reported on 16 September that SK Hynix is discussing US memory-chip production with Intel. Leasing part of the Ohio facility is one option; SK Hynix said no decision has been made.
Minor Tuesday move · Reported SK Hynix talks
Tuesday close $97.14, -0.05% Session range $96.52 to $100.48 Volume 84.84m against a 91.54m average, 93% of average Wednesday premarket +3.62% at $100.66; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:18 EDT Close was 31.76% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersA lease could help monetize infrastructure and spread fixed costs. These are reported negotiations, with no signed deal, disclosed economics or confirmed production timetable.
Source and date<a href="https://www.marketscreener.com/news/sk-hynix-in-talks-with-intel-about-deal-to-make-memory-chips-in-the-us-for-the-first-time-sources-s-ce785bd2d881f52c">Reuters, 16 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● METAChart+0.70% Tuesday close · +0.96% Wednesday premarket
On 15 September, Meta introduced Meta One and reported 15 million subscriptions and trials combined. Core and Premium plans are listed at $7.99 and $19.99 monthly, with regional variation.
Minor Tuesday move · Meta One subscription launch
Tuesday close $670.24, +0.70% Session range $656.20 to $678.87 Volume 19.49m against a 20.01m average, 97% of average Wednesday premarket +0.96% at $676.65; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:15 EDT Close was 15.25% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersSubscriptions can diversify revenue beyond advertising, but trials are not paying subscribers. Without the paid share, retention and service costs, the announcement cannot support a reliable profit estimate.
Source and date<a href="https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-meta-one-subscription-service-more-features-ai/">Meta, 15 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● TSLAChart-0.67% Tuesday close · +0.34% Wednesday premarket
Reuters reported on 15 September that NHTSA ordered Tesla to answer Cybercab certification questions by 30 September, including how temporary human controls satisfy existing standards.
Minor Tuesday move · Cybercab certification questions
Tuesday close $356.58, -0.67% Session range $354.05 to $362.39 Volume 30.27m against a 40.50m average, 75% of average Wednesday premarket +0.34% at $357.78; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:15 EDT Close was 28.52% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersThe request adds execution uncertainty to autonomous deployment. It is not an announced recall or operating ban; the financial consequence depends on any required design or launch changes.
Source and date<a href="https://www.marketscreener.com/news/us-agency-orders-tesla-to-answer-questions-on-cybercab-certification-ce785bddde80f524">Reuters, 15 September; filing not read directly</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● NBISChart-2.27% Tuesday close · +2.38% Wednesday premarket
The Palantir partnership was announced on 8 September and names Nebius a preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. The newsroom review did not identify a fresh 15 September financial announcement.
Tuesday close $207.37, -2.27% Session range $206.85 to $216.56 Volume 10.42m against a 13.39m average, 78% of average Wednesday premarket +2.38% at $212.30; timestamp 2026-09-16 08:32 EDT Close was 30.84% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersCustomer access can support future infrastructure utilization, but integration and actual consumption determine revenue. The prior agreement should not be counted again as a new order today.
Source and date<a href="https://nebius.com/newsroom/palantir-and-nebius-partner-to-deliver-a-complete-sovereign-ai-stack-to-palantir-customers">Nebius and Palantir, 8 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● AMZNChart-2.02% Tuesday close · +0.14% Wednesday premarket
AWS and Cognition announced a multiyear collaboration on 15 September covering autonomous engineering and enterprise modernization. Devin is available through AWS Marketplace.
Notable Tuesday move · AWS expands enterprise distribution
Tuesday close $248.42, -2.02% Session range $247.22 to $253.27 Volume 36.20m against a 29.86m average, 121% of average Wednesday premarket +0.14% at $248.76; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:11 EDT Close was 13.50% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersThe collaboration could expand cloud consumption and distribution, but the announcement does not disclose contract value or minimum spending. It cannot be converted directly into incremental AWS revenue.
Source and date<a href="https://press.aboutamazon.com/aws/2026/9/cognition-and-aws-sign-multi-year-collaboration-agreement">AWS, 15 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● MSFTChart-1.64% Tuesday close · -0.44% Wednesday premarket
Microsoft said on 15 September that LinkedIn presented arguments in the Fourth Circuit over government data requests and secrecy requirements. No new financial penalty was quantified in that update.
Notable Tuesday move · LinkedIn privacy case
Tuesday close $497.12, -1.64% Session range $495.54 to $505.90 Volume 17.77m against a 18.18m average, 98% of average Wednesday premarket -0.44% at $494.93; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:16 EDT Close was 10.22% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersThe issue concerns customer trust and legal access to data. The available disclosure does not establish a measurable change to Microsoft earnings or cloud demand.
Source and date<a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2026/09/15/protecting-customer-privacy-means-standing-up-for-transparency/">Microsoft, 15 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● MRVLChart+1.32% Tuesday close · +1.92% Wednesday premarket
Marvell is participating in the 15-17 September AI Infra Summit. Its programme lists an AI inference presentation on 16 September; the underlying event announcement was dated 9 September.
Notable Tuesday move · AI infrastructure summit continues
Tuesday close $221.70, +1.32% Session range $220.92 to $227.62 Volume 12.70m against a 18.73m average, 68% of average Wednesday premarket +1.92% at $225.96; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:13 EDT Close was 32.79% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersConnectivity and inference infrastructure remain central to the business. Event demonstrations are not booked revenue, and no revised outlook was identified in the reviewed event material.
Source and date<a href="https://www.marvell.com/company/events/ai-infra-summit-2026.html">Marvell, 15-17 September event programme</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● GOOGLChart-1.26% Tuesday close · +0.19% Wednesday premarket
On 15 September, Google announced Gemini in Workspace integrations with business tools including Asana, Salesforce and HubSpot, with administrator controls.
Tuesday close $344.98, -1.26% Session range $342.70 to $348.07 Volume 21.90m against a 25.20m average, 87% of average Wednesday premarket +0.19% at $345.63; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:04 EDT Close was 15.57% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersBroader workflow access may support enterprise adoption and retention. Google supplied no incremental revenue or margin forecast in this product update.
Source and date<a href="https://workspaceupdates.googleblog.com/2026/09/connect-to-more-tools-with-gemini-in-Google-Workspace.html">Google Workspace, 15 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● NVDAChart+0.57% Tuesday close · +0.77% Wednesday premarket
Nvidia announced CUDA-Q Logical on 14 September to support development of fault-tolerant quantum applications. It is a software ecosystem announcement, not a newly reported Tuesday chip order.
Minor Tuesday move · CUDA-Q platform expanded on Monday
Tuesday close $212.17, +0.57% Session range $211.16 to $213.94 Volume 87.73m against a 115.76m average, 76% of average Wednesday premarket +0.77% at $213.80; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:17 EDT Close was 10.30% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersTools can strengthen the surrounding computing ecosystem, but the release does not quantify near-term revenue. Tuesday price action alone does not establish a change to AI accelerator demand.
Source and date<a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-expands-open-source-cuda-q-platform-for-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing">Nvidia, 14 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● AAPLChart-0.52% Tuesday close · +0.40% Wednesday premarket
Apple released Siri AI and its major software-platform updates on 14 September. The initial Siri AI rollout includes language and regional restrictions. This is earlier product news, not a new Tuesday earnings disclosure.
Minor Tuesday move · Software rollout is dated 14 September
Tuesday close $331.34, -0.52% Session range $328.35 to $331.78 Volume 31.69m against a 45.66m average, 69% of average Wednesday premarket +0.40% at $332.67; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:15 EDT Close was 3.84% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersMore capable software may support device engagement and upgrades. Adoption, paid conversion and delivery costs still determine the eventual financial return.
Source and date<a href="https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/siri-ai-a-profoundly-more-capable-and-personal-assistant-is-here/">Apple, 14 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
● PLTRChart-0.43% Tuesday close · -0.71% Wednesday premarket
Palantir and Nebius announced their sovereign AI partnership on 8 September. It remains relevant background, but it is not a fresh 15 September contract award. No newly quantified Tuesday catalyst was identified in the reviewed sources.
Minor Tuesday move · Sovereign AI partnership remains prior context
Tuesday close $172.56, -0.43% Session range $169.45 to $176.59 Volume 31.20m against a 27.25m average, 114% of average Wednesday premarket -0.71% at $171.34; timestamp 2026-09-16 09:16 EDT Close was 16.85% below the 52-week high
Why it mattersThe integration may widen deployment options for customers with sovereignty requirements. The announcement supplies no minimum purchase commitment to turn directly into a revenue estimate.
Source and date<a href="https://nebius.com/newsroom/palantir-and-nebius-partner-to-deliver-a-complete-sovereign-ai-stack-to-palantir-customers">Nebius and Palantir, 8 September</a>
Price contextTuesday 15 September is the completed session. Wednesday premarket is provisional and may change before the open.
Read-through
Separate confirmed launches, reported negotiations and market prices.
Intel has a fresh, conditional catalyst: reported memory-production discussions are not a signed contract. Meta has a new subscription offering: its headline user figure combines subscriptions and trials. Robinhood faces a legislative setback: Tuesday trading does not directly quantify future transaction revenue.
The complete quote snapshot records 3 positive and 9 negative Tuesday returns. Wednesday premarket records 10 positive and 2 negative returns. Those two observations describe different sessions; the latter is not a forecast of the close.
Nothing material
PLTR · NBIS, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Timing and evidence limits
The Palantir-Nebius agreement is dated 8 September and is retained as background. Company product announcements and event programmes are not treated as earnings guidance.
Quotes were refreshed around 09:17-09:18 ET on 16 September after a delayed publication run. Extended observations range from 08:32 to 09:18 ET. All twelve are Wednesday premarket observations; no prior-evening print is labeled premarket. Regulatory details are attributed to reporting where the underlying filing was not read directly.
Chart freshness: daily charts for all 12 tickers include 15 September. Some intraday intervals for AAPL, HOOD, INTC, META, MRVL, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR and TSLA fell back to cached bars and may lag the quote snapshot.
Earnings within 14 days
16 SepMacro Federal Reserve decision and press conference; <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm">official calendar</a>
15-17 SepMRVL / INTC AI Infra Summit continues
30 SepTSLA deadline to answer NHTSA Cybercab questions, per Reuters
Tue 15 Sep 2026MRVL, INTC, NBIS, PLTR, NVDA, GOOGL, META
The 30-second version
Marvell -7.32% Monday: the largest fall of the twelve.
Palantir +3.64% Monday: the largest gain of the twelve.
Intel +1.89% Tuesday premarket: the strongest premarket reading of the twelve.
Robinhood -2.20% Tuesday premarket: the weakest premarket reading of the twelve.
Monday finished with 6 advancers and 6 decliners. Tuesday premarket had 3 higher and 9 lower readings.
Market-wide
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq composite declined 0.6% on Monday.
AI-linked hardware and infrastructure stocks sold off after weekend safety warningsAP reported that industry leaders called for slower frontier-AI development so safeguards could catch up. Nvidia fell 3.36% in the stored quote snapshot, while Marvell, Intel and Nebius each lost more than 5%. No tracked company cut guidance or disclosed a contract cancellation on Monday.
Brent settled at $105.68 after nearing $110, while the ten-year Treasury briefly reached 5.00% and closed near 4.98%.
Oil and rates reinforced the valuation pressure on long-duration AI investmentAP dated the 5% Treasury breach to 14 September, its first since 2023. The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins 15 September; futures pricing cited by AP assigned a 90% probability to a quarter-point increase on Wednesday.
S&P 500 futures were down 0.6% and Dow futures were down 0.7% in early Tuesday trading.
The risk-off move extended overseas before the US openAP reported on 15 September that European shares fell around 0.8% and Brent traded near $107.93. Nine of the twelve tracked premarket prints were lower, while Intel, Nvidia and Tesla were higher or effectively flat.
Marvell fell 7.32% Monday as investors cut exposure to AI infrastructure after weekend calls to slow frontier-model development.
Major move · AI infrastructure sold off · summit begins today
Monday close $218.82, -7.32% Traded from $213.63 to $224.10, a 4.90% low-to-high range Volume 22.14m shares against a 19.82m average, 112% of normal Tuesday premarket -0.47% at $217.80, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 33.67% below its 52-week high of $329.88 Moved +1.39% from Monday's open Marvell's AI Infra Summit programme runs 15-17 September The 9 September event release listed connectivity, CXL memory and storage demonstrations but changed no financial guidance
Why it mattersMarvell's networking, optical, memory and custom-silicon businesses are direct beneficiaries of rapid AI data-center spending. The industry safety debate therefore pressed on the assumed timing of demand, while the summit offers the next company-specific readout. No order cancellation or guidance revision was announced.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateMarvell summit release dated 9 September; AP and Reuters market reports dated 14 September.
Intel fell 5.59% Monday with the chip group, then rebounded 1.89% in Tuesday premarket trading.
Major move · chip sell-off · premarket rebound
Monday close $97.19, -5.59% Traded from $94.52 to $98.86, a 4.59% low-to-high range Volume 96.24m shares against a 89.56m average, 107% of normal Tuesday premarket +1.89% at $99.03, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 31.72% below its 52-week high of $142.35 Moved +1.43% from Monday's open Intel's latest identified newsroom release remains the 8 September High-NA EUV collaboration with ASML No new Intel revenue, shipment or foundry milestone was published on 14 September
Why it mattersIntel combines server demand with a capital-intensive foundry plan. Slower AI development can challenge expected capacity utilization, while a near-5% Treasury yield raises the cost of waiting for foundry returns. Tuesday's rebound is provisional and is not tied to a fresh operating disclosure.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateIntel newsroom reviewed through 15 September; AP and Reuters market reports dated 14 September.
Nebius fell 5.50% Monday after trading through a 7.58% low-to-high range, then slipped another 1.03% Tuesday premarket.
Major move · AI-cloud repricing · no guidance change
Monday close $212.19, -5.50% Traded from $203.87 to $219.32, a 7.58% low-to-high range Volume 13.68m shares against a 13.40m average, 102% of normal Tuesday premarket -1.03% at $210.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 29.24% below its 52-week high of $299.86 Moved +3.52% from Monday's open Nebius launched its AI Builder Program on 10 September The 8 September Palantir partnership named Nebius a preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner but disclosed no contract value or minimum spend
Why it mattersNebius is a capital-intensive AI cloud, so a slower model-development cadence can reduce expectations for near-term compute consumption. Its latest product and partnership releases did not alter guidance, making the move a broad demand and valuation repricing rather than a response to new company numbers.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateNebius releases dated 8 and 10 September; AP and Reuters market reports dated 14 September.
Palantir rose 3.64% Monday as software names held up better than AI infrastructure, then fell 1.85% Tuesday premarket.
Notable gain · software diverged from infrastructure · premarket reversal
Monday close $173.31, +3.64% Traded from $166.42 to $174.36, a 4.77% low-to-high range Volume 29.11m shares against a 26.72m average, 109% of normal Tuesday premarket -1.85% at $170.10, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 16.49% below its 52-week high of $207.52 Moved +2.13% from Monday's open The latest identified product event remains AIPCon 11 on 10 September The event presented customer deployments and model options but supplied no new company-wide financial outlook
Why it mattersPalantir sells software for deploying and governing AI rather than the underlying chips and data-center equipment. Monday's divergence fits that distinction, but Tuesday's provisional reversal shows the broader risk-off move remains relevant. No fresh contract value or guidance accompanied either move.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and datePalantir company sources reviewed through 15 September; market reports dated 14-15 September.
Nvidia fell 3.36% Monday and was the largest drag on the S&P 500 in AP's account. It then rose 0.66% Tuesday premarket.
Notable move · central AI-demand proxy · modest premarket rebound
Monday close $210.96, -3.36% Traded from $208.93 to $212.77, a 1.84% low-to-high range Volume 131.94m shares against a 119.43m average, 110% of normal Tuesday premarket +0.66% at $212.36, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 10.81% below its 52-week high of $236.54 Moved -0.13% from Monday's open AP reported on 14 September that Nvidia fell as AI-industry leaders called for slower development Nvidia's newsroom showed no company release after its 10 September local-AI update from IFA
Why it mattersNvidia is the clearest listed proxy for frontier-model compute spending, so a proposed slowdown affects the assumed timing of GPU demand even without a change to backlog or guidance. The premarket bounce is a price response, not a new operating update.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateNvidia newsroom reviewed through 15 September; AP market report dated 14 September.
Alphabet rose 3.22% Monday as the market distinguished software platforms from the hardest-hit infrastructure names, then fell 1.38% Tuesday premarket.
Notable gain · platform and software resilience · premarket lower
Monday close $349.39, +3.22% Traded from $342.14 to $349.91, a 2.27% low-to-high range Volume 35.86m shares against a 26.35m average, 136% of normal Tuesday premarket -1.38% at $344.57, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 14.49% below its 52-week high of $408.61 Moved +1.83% from Monday's open The latest identified product items remain the 10 September Gemini Windows app and Morgan State AI-campus collaboration Those announcements disclosed no pricing, seat count or contract value
Why it mattersAlphabet owns both model development and distribution through Search, Cloud and Gemini. Monday's rise suggests investors differentiated that revenue base from hardware exposure, while the Tuesday decline reflects renewed broad pressure. No fresh company-wide financial update was found.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateGoogle company sources reviewed through 15 September; market reports dated 14-15 September.
Meta rose 2.71% Monday despite the AI-safety debate, then traded 0.91% lower Tuesday premarket.
Notable gain · platform dispersion · premarket lower
Monday close $665.60, +2.71% Traded from $649.22 to $668.60, a 2.99% low-to-high range Volume 19.30m shares against a 19.40m average, 99% of normal Tuesday premarket -0.91% at $659.53, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 15.83% below its 52-week high of $790.80 Moved +1.18% from Monday's open The latest Meta newsroom release remains the 8 September Muse launch Meta has not disclosed paid conversion, revenue or inference economics for Muse
Why it mattersMeta combines AI spending with an advertising platform that already monetizes engagement. A slower frontier race could lower competitive capex intensity, but that is an inference rather than a disclosed plan. Tuesday's decline arrived without a new Meta operating release.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateMeta newsroom reviewed through 15 September; AP market reports dated 14-15 September.
Microsoft rose 1.97% Monday, then traded 1.29% lower Tuesday premarket without a new company release.
Minor gain · diversified AI exposure · premarket lower
Monday close $505.41, +1.97% Traded from $495.34 to $509.95, a 2.95% low-to-high range Volume 23.07m shares against a 19.12m average, 121% of normal Tuesday premarket -1.29% at $498.90, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 8.72% below its 52-week high of $553.72 Moved +1.68% from Monday's open The latest identified policy item remains Microsoft's Safe Participation Framework dated 10 September The framework described age-appropriate AI safeguards but attached no financial target
Why it mattersMicrosoft combines direct AI infrastructure exposure with recurring software revenue and a close OpenAI relationship. Monday's gain may reflect that diversification, but the later decline shows sensitivity to yields and AI demand expectations. No new Azure demand, capex or margin figure was published.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateMicrosoft company sources reviewed through 15 September; AP and Reuters market reports dated 14-15 September.
Tesla fell 1.77% Monday after Elon Musk supported the weekend call for slower AI development; its Tuesday premarket print was effectively unchanged.
Minor decline · AI-safety comments · premarket flat
Monday close $358.97, -1.77% Traded from $357.04 to $367.73, a 2.99% low-to-high range Volume 32.40m shares against a 43.64m average, 74% of normal Tuesday premarket +0.01% at $359.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 28.04% below its 52-week high of $498.83 Moved -0.23% from Monday's open The latest identified operating events remain the 3 September Cybercab launch and the 4 September NHTSA investigation Third-quarter deliveries remain due in early October
Why it mattersMusk's agreement is relevant to xAI and to the AI assumptions embedded in Tesla's autonomy narrative, but it was not a Tesla production, delivery or financial update. The settled decline therefore mixes broader growth-stock pressure with uncertainty about development pace.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateAP report on the AI-safety debate dated 14 September; Tesla sources reviewed through 15 September.
Robinhood rose 1.56% Monday, then fell 2.20% Tuesday premarket.
Minor gain · August metrics still the latest operating read · premarket lower
Monday close $114.33, +1.56% Traded from $111.96 to $116.34, a 3.92% low-to-high range Volume 17.02m shares against a 22.93m average, 74% of normal Tuesday premarket -2.20% at $111.81, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 25.69% below its 52-week high of $153.86 Moved +1.84% from Monday's open The 10 September August report showed 28.6m funded customers, $383.7bn of platform assets and $4.0bn of net deposits Options contracts fell 10% and event contracts fell 23% from July, while crypto notional rose 61%
Why it mattersAugust data combined asset and customer growth with mixed transaction activity. Monday's gain and Tuesday's provisional decline supplied price responses but no new monthly metric. The premarket move also sits within a broader risk-off tape before the Fed decision.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateRobinhood August operating-data release dated 10 September; Twelve Data snapshot on 15 September.
Monday close $253.54, -1.26% Traded from $250.74 to $255.95, a 2.08% low-to-high range Volume 34.29m shares against a 30.84m average, 111% of normal Tuesday premarket -0.58% at $252.08, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 11.72% below its 52-week high of $287.20 Moved +0.15% from Monday's open Amazon's 14 September news feed added a Bedrock customer case study and Prime Video on-demand news clips Neither item revised AWS growth, company guidance or capital spending
Why it mattersAWS benefits from sustained AI training and inference demand, so a slower development cadence can reduce expected incremental compute consumption. Higher Treasury yields also raise the hurdle for capital-intensive cloud investment. Monday's company posts supplied no financial counter-signal.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateAmazon company posts dated 14 September; AP and Reuters market reports dated 14-15 September.
Monday close $333.08, +0.24% Traded from $331.34 to $335.50, a 1.26% low-to-high range Volume 39.22m shares against a 46.61m average, 84% of normal Tuesday premarket -0.62% at $331.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 3.33% below its 52-week high of $344.57 Moved -0.51% from Monday's open iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders began on 12 September iPhone 18 Pro, Apple Watch Series 12 and AirPods 5 become available on 18 September; AppleCare One Family began on 14 September
Why it mattersThe product cycle has entered the order window, but Apple has not published demand, unit or margin evidence. The small settled gain and later decline therefore provide market signals rather than a confirmed operating read.
Already priced in?Monday's settled move is complete; Tuesday's premarket print is provisional and can change before the open.
Would flip ifA company-specific disclosure changes the operating evidence, or the Fed and market response reverse the present rates-and-AI setup.
Source and dateApple product-availability update dated 11 September; Twelve Data snapshot on 15 September.
Read-through
Monday split AI infrastructure from software, but Tuesday premarket narrowed that distinction.
The settled session punished the direct infrastructure exposures. Marvell fell 7.32%, Intel lost 5.59%, Nebius declined 5.50% and Nvidia shed 3.36%. AP tied the group move to weekend calls from leading AI executives for a deliberate slowdown in frontier development. No tracked company announced an order cancellation or guidance cut.
Software and platform names were comparatively resilient Monday. Palantir rose 3.64%, Alphabet gained 3.22%, Meta added 2.71% and Microsoft advanced 1.97%. That pattern suggests investors distinguished recurring software and platform revenue from the immediate capital-spending sensitivity of chips, networking and AI cloud capacity.
Tuesday premarket was less selective. Nine tracked shares were lower. Intel and Nvidia rebounded, Tesla was nearly unchanged, and the other nine declined between 0.47% and 2.20%. With the FOMC decision due Wednesday, rates and oil remain capable of overwhelming company-specific signals.
The evidence line stays strict. Monday's prices are settled; Tuesday's readings are provisional. Every extended timestamp in the snapshot falls between 04:01 and 07:04 ET on 15 September, so none was misclassified from the previous evening.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · TSLA · PLTR · MSFT · GOOGL · HOOD · NVDA · INTC · NBIS · MRVL · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Large settled moves were market-wide, not new company guidance
No tracked company published a fresh financial outlook, earnings result or material order cancellation dated 14 September or before the 15 September snapshot. Amazon's 14 September feed added a Bedrock customer case study and Prime Video news-clips feature, while Apple's previously announced AppleCare One Family coverage began that day. Neither supplied a new company-wide financial target.
Older items kept their original dates. The Palantir-Nebius partnership was announced on 8 September; Marvell's summit programme on 9 September; Robinhood's August metrics and the Nebius AI Builder Program on 10 September; Apple's product-availability update on 11 September.
Evidence limits. Prices come from two rate-limited Twelve Data quote batches fetched around 07:03-07:04 ET on 15 September. All twelve extended timestamps are genuine Tuesday premarket observations stamped from 04:01 to 07:04 ET. The regular-session figures are for Monday 14 September.
Earnings within 14 days
15-16 SepMacro FOMC meeting; decision and press conference on 16 September
15-17 SepMRVL product demonstrations and executive sessions at AI Infra Summit
18 SepAAPL iPhone 18 Pro, Apple Watch Series 12 and AirPods 5 availability
by 2 OctGOOGL jointly proposed final judgment in the ad-tech case
6 OctMRVL investor day
16 OctAAPL iPhone Duo pre-orders; availability begins 23 October
Marvell +4.03% Friday: the largest gain of the twelve.
Nebius -7.82% premarket: the weakest premarket reading of the twelve as the AI infrastructure trade repriced after weekend safety warnings.
Meta +1.85% premarket: the largest positive premarket move of the twelve despite the earlier broad sell-off in AI-linked futures.
Friday finished with 9 advancers and 3 decliners. Of 11 current Monday premarket readings, 5 are higher and 6 lower; Robinhood's latest extended print is Friday after-hours.
Market-wide
The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Dow gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq composite climbed 1.0% on Friday.
CPI near expectations and a retreat in oil ended a four-session losing streakBLS reported that August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year; core CPI rose 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively. AP reported that Brent fell nearly 3%, easing the immediate inflation pressure that had driven Thursday's sell-off.
Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.72% at 04:46 ET Monday. Intel and Marvell were each down about 6% and Nvidia was more than 2% lower in Reuters' early snapshot
Weekend calls to slow frontier-AI development hit the infrastructure tradeAnthropic CEO Dario Amodei called on the industry Saturday to give safety measures time to catch up. AP reported that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman committed to one proposed safeguard and Elon Musk agreed with Amodei. The remarks changed expectations for the pace of model development, not any tracked company's reported revenue or guidance.
Brent was up 3.6% near $108.31 and the ten-year Treasury yield was around 4.96% early Monday.
Oil, rates and AI-demand uncertainty are pressing on the same valuation mechanismReuters reported that markets assigned nearly an 89% probability to a Fed rate increase this week. The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins 15 September, with its decision and press conference on 16 September.
Nebius posted the weakest premarket reading of the twelve at -7.82% Monday.
Major move · AI-infrastructure repricing · premarket provisional
Friday close $224.55, -1.56% Traded from $223.64 to $234.95, a 5.06% low-to-high range Volume 11.18m shares against a 13.34m average, 84% of normal Monday premarket -7.82% at $207.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 25.12% below its 52-week high of $299.86 Moved -4.37% from Friday's open Friday's 1.56% fall was the largest settled decline of the twelve The latest company release remains the 8 September Palantir partnership That release named Nebius Palantir's preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner but disclosed no contract value or minimum spend
Why it mattersNebius is building a capital-intensive AI cloud, so any slower model-development cadence can reduce expectations for near-term compute demand while higher oil and Treasury yields lift its financing and valuation hurdle. The move is not tied to a new Nebius contract cancellation or guidance change.
Already priced in?Friday's decline became a much larger provisional premarket move. The scale exceeds any newly disclosed company-specific change because none was found.
Would flip ifThe safety debate produces no slowdown in contracted capacity, or customers delay deployments and reduce utilization.
Source and dateNebius newsroom reviewed through 13 September; AP and Reuters market reports dated 14 September.
Marvell posted the second-weakest premarket reading of the twelve at -7.44% Monday.
Major move · Friday leader reversed by AI warning · premarket provisional
Friday close $236.10, +4.03% Traded from $229.28 to $240.20, a 4.76% low-to-high range Volume 17.27m shares against a 22.50m average, 77% of normal Monday premarket -7.44% at $218.53, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 28.43% below its 52-week high of $329.88 Moved +0.63% from Friday's open Friday's 4.03% rise was the largest settled gain of the twelve The latest company blog was dated 10 September and demonstrated scalable CXL memory infrastructure with Intel Marvell's AI Infra Summit programme runs 15-17 September
Why it mattersThe reversal directly targets Marvell's AI-data-center exposure: slower frontier-model development would challenge the timing of demand for networking, optical and memory infrastructure. There is no new order cancellation or guidance change, and the AI Infra Summit begins Tuesday.
Already priced in?Monday's provisional decline is larger than Friday's settled gain. It reprices expectations before the summit rather than reacting to new company numbers.
Would flip ifThe summit produces customer, shipment or timing evidence that keeps AI infrastructure demand intact, or buyers slow orders.
Source and dateMarvell newsroom reviewed through 13 September; Reuters market report dated 14 September.
Intel posted the third-weakest premarket reading of the twelve at -6.25% Monday.
Major move · Friday rebound reversed · premarket provisional
Friday close $102.94, +2.61% Traded from $101.07 to $104.90, a 3.79% low-to-high range Volume 86.84m shares against a 88.53m average, 98% of normal Monday premarket -6.25% at $96.51, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 27.69% below its 52-week high of $142.35 Moved +0.46% from Friday's open Friday's 2.61% rise was the second-largest settled gain of the twelve Intel's latest newsroom release was the 8 September High-NA EUV collaboration with ASML Monday's move is not a new price-change report or a revision to Intel guidance
Why it mattersIntel's valuation is exposed to both server demand and execution at a capital-intensive foundry. The weekend safety discussion changes the market's assumed pace of AI infrastructure demand, while the near-5% ten-year yield raises the cost of waiting for foundry returns. Intel issued no new weekend operating update.
Already priced in?The provisional premarket decline more than reverses Friday's gain and follows an unusually volatile week.
Would flip ifCustomer commitments and foundry milestones remain on schedule, or a slowdown in AI demand delays capacity utilization.
Source and dateIntel investor-relations newsroom reviewed through 13 September; Reuters market report dated 14 September.
Friday close $218.29, -0.03% Traded from $218.15 to $222.00, a 1.76% low-to-high range Volume 88.80m shares against a 125.72m average, 71% of normal Monday premarket -2.38% at $213.10, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 7.72% below its 52-week high of $236.54 Moved -1.33% from Friday's open Friday's close was effectively flat despite a 1.76% intraday range Nvidia's newsroom showed no company release dated after 10 September
Why it mattersNvidia is the clearest listed proxy for frontier-model compute spending, so calls to slow development affect the assumed timing of GPU demand even without a change to backlog or guidance. The $12.93bn Hugging Face agreement is an older 3 September event, not new weekend news.
Already priced in?The market moved from a flat Friday close to a notable provisional premarket decline without a new Nvidia operating disclosure.
Would flip ifCustomers reaffirm deployment schedules, or coordinated safety limits slow model training and inference demand.
Source and dateNvidia newsroom reviewed through 13 September; Hugging Face announcement dated 3 September; AP and Reuters reports dated 14 September.
Friday close $365.44, +0.52% Traded from $361.60 to $368.66, a 1.95% low-to-high range Volume 30.09m shares against a 43.69m average, 69% of normal Monday premarket -1.57% at $359.72, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 26.74% below its 52-week high of $498.83 Moved +0.34% from Friday's open Tesla's latest identified operating events remain the 3 September Cybercab launch and the 4 September NHTSA investigation Third-quarter deliveries remain due in early October
Why it mattersMusk's agreement is relevant to xAI and to the AI assumptions embedded in Tesla's autonomy narrative, but it was not a Tesla production, delivery or financial update. The premarket decline therefore mixes broader growth-stock pressure with uncertainty about AI development pace.
Already priced in?Monday's provisional decline is larger than Friday's gain, but no Tesla operating metric changed over the weekend.
Would flip ifMusk clarifies that safety pacing will not delay Tesla's autonomy work, or regulators and developers impose material constraints.
Source and dateAP report on the AI-safety debate dated 14 September; Tesla sources reviewed through 13 September.
Amazon gained 1.94% Friday, the third-largest settled gain of the twelve.
Notable Friday gain · broad AI risk · premarket provisional
Friday close $256.78, +1.94% Traded from $253.14 to $257.59, a 1.76% low-to-high range Volume 26.68m shares against a 32.36m average, 82% of normal Monday premarket -0.85% at $254.60, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 10.59% below its 52-week high of $287.20 Moved +1.06% from Friday's open The latest material operating announcements remain the 10 September expansion of Amazon Leo launch capacity and the Whole Foods pay-and-benefits investment No new contract value or financial outlook was attached over the weekend
Why it mattersAWS benefits from sustained AI training and inference demand, so a slower development cadence can reduce the pace of incremental compute consumption. Amazon's 11 September press-center item was a $163,000 community-grant programme, not a material change to AWS, retail or guidance.
Already priced in?Monday's decline gives back less than half of Friday's settled gain.
Would flip ifAWS customers maintain AI capacity commitments, or model-development pacing reduces cloud consumption.
Source and dateAmazon press center reviewed through 13 September; Reuters market report dated 14 September.
Apple gained 1.75% Friday as it issued a product-availability update before iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders opened Saturday, then added 0.51% Monday premarket.
Notable gain · iPhone pre-orders opened · settled close
Friday close $332.27, +1.75% Traded from $326.30 to $336.22, a 3.04% low-to-high range Volume 50.66m shares against a 46.55m average, 109% of normal Monday premarket +0.51% at $333.96, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 3.57% below its 52-week high of $344.57 Moved +1.47% from Friday's open iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders began at 05:00 PT on 12 September iPhone 18 Pro, Apple Watch Series 12 and AirPods 5 become available 18 September Volume was 109% of average, the heaviest volume ratio of the twelve
Why it mattersThe dated update moves the product cycle from announcement to orders. That creates the first direct demand signal for the iPhone 18 Pro lineup, while the 18 September availability date starts the revenue-conversion window. Apple still has not published unit demand or margin evidence.
Already priced in?Friday added to the prior post-event gain and did so on above-average volume. The Monday premarket move is modestly positive.
Would flip ifPre-order availability stays unusually broad, delivery times shorten or channel checks point to weak demand.
Source and dateApple product-availability update dated 11 September; pre-orders began 12 September.
Alphabet gained 1.77% Friday and rose another 1.83% Monday premarket despite the earlier sell-off in AI-linked futures.
Notable gains · positive despite AI warning · premarket provisional
Friday close $338.50, +1.77% Traded from $335.03 to $342.98, a 2.37% low-to-high range Volume 24.68m shares against a 25.30m average, 98% of normal Monday premarket +1.83% at $344.69, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 17.16% below its 52-week high of $408.61 Moved +1.04% from Friday's open The latest identified product items remain the 10 September Gemini Windows app and Morgan State AI-campus collaboration Those announcements did not disclose pricing, seat count or contract value
Why it mattersAlphabet owns both model development and distribution through Search, Cloud and Gemini. The positive later print suggests investors are not treating a slower frontier race as uniformly negative for platforms with existing revenue and distribution, but no new weekend Google financial update supports a quantified change.
Already priced in?The stock is positive in both the settled session and Monday premarket, but the weekend debate supplied no new Google operating metric.
Would flip ifSafety constraints slow Gemini deployment materially, or a measured pace reduces cost without impairing adoption.
Source and dateGoogle company sources reviewed through 13 September; AP market report dated 14 September.
Meta gained 0.57% Friday and rose 1.85% Monday premarket, the largest positive premarket move of the twelve.
Notable premarket gain · platform dispersion · provisional
Friday close $648.03, +0.57% Traded from $646.20 to $664.24, a 2.79% low-to-high range Volume 16.91m shares against a 19.07m average, 89% of normal Monday premarket +1.85% at $660.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 18.05% below its 52-week high of $790.80 Moved -0.84% from Friday's open The latest Meta newsroom release remains the 8 September Muse launch Muse's core service is free and Meta has not disclosed paid conversion or inference economics
Why it mattersThe later positive print separates Meta from the early broad AI sell-off. A slower frontier race could reduce competitive capex intensity, but that is an inference rather than a disclosed plan. Meta published no new weekend adoption, revenue or cost figures for Muse.
Already priced in?Monday's provisional gain is larger than Friday's settled move, but it is not tied to a new Meta release.
Would flip ifMeta confirms lower capex without slowing product delivery, or safety requirements add cost and delay adoption.
Source and dateMeta newsroom reviewed through 13 September; Twelve Data snapshot at 07:43 ET on 14 September.
Palantir gained 0.83% Friday and rose another 1.09% Monday premarket as its software exposure diverged from chip and infrastructure names.
Notable premarket gain · software diverges from chips · provisional
Friday close $167.23, +0.83% Traded from $165.40 to $168.61, a 1.94% low-to-high range Volume 15.38m shares against a 26.32m average, 58% of normal Monday premarket +1.09% at $169.06, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 19.41% below its 52-week high of $207.52 Moved -0.52% from Friday's open The latest product announcements remain dated 10 September AIPCon 11 presented customer deployments and model options but no new company-wide outlook
Why it mattersPalantir sells deployment and operating software rather than compute hardware. The positive print may reflect that difference, while its 10 September AIPCon still supplied no new contract value or guidance. The weekend debate does not change disclosed Palantir economics.
Already priced in?The stock is positive in both observed periods, but the move remains provisional and unsupported by a new filing.
Would flip ifSafety pacing lengthens customer deployments, or demand for governance and controlled AI operating layers increases.
Source and datePalantir announcements reviewed through 13 September; latest material items dated 10 September.
Robinhood fell 0.67% in Friday's full session after publishing August operating data Thursday evening; Twelve Data returned no current Monday premarket observation.
Minor decline · full-session response to August data · settled close
Friday close $112.57, -0.67% Traded from $111.02 to $116.40, a 4.85% low-to-high range Volume 19.66m shares against a 22.84m average, 86% of normal Latest extended print +0.00% at $112.57 at 19:59 ET Friday; no current Monday premarket print was returned Closed 26.84% below its 52-week high of $153.86 Moved -0.69% from Friday's open The August report showed 28.6m funded customers, $384bn of platform assets and $4.0bn of net deposits Options contracts fell 10% and event contracts fell 23% from July, while crypto notional rose 61%
Why it mattersFriday's settled decline is the cleaner response to a report that combined rising customers, assets and deposits with sequentially lower options and event-contract activity. The weekend AI discussion does not provide a direct new operating read-through for Robinhood.
Already priced in?Friday supplied a full regular-session verdict. The 19:59 ET print was unchanged and is not a Monday premarket reading.
Would flip ifSeptember activity reaccelerates with durable deposits, or lower transaction activity persists.
Source and dateRobinhood August operating-data release dated 10 September; Twelve Data extended timestamp 11 September 19:59 ET.
Microsoft gained 0.65% Friday and added 0.58% Monday premarket without a new weekend company release.
Minor gains · safety framework already published · premarket provisional
Friday close $495.63, +0.65% Traded from $492.58 to $498.97, a 1.30% low-to-high range Volume 14.51m shares against a 19.73m average, 74% of normal Monday premarket +0.58% at $498.50, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 10.49% below its 52-week high of $553.72 Moved -0.00% from Friday's open The latest identified policy item remains Microsoft's 10 September Safe Participation Framework The framework described age-appropriate AI safeguards but attached no financial target
Why it mattersMicrosoft combines direct AI infrastructure exposure with recurring software revenue and a close OpenAI relationship. Its positive later print may reflect that diversification, but the weekend discussion introduced no new Azure demand, capex or margin figures.
Already priced in?Both moves are small and positive. There is no new company metric to separate them from broader positioning.
Would flip ifAI safety measures slow Azure consumption, or stronger governance increases enterprise adoption without a material cost penalty.
Source and dateMicrosoft company sources reviewed through 13 September; AP and Reuters reports dated 14 September.
Read-through
Friday's relief rally and Monday's AI reversal are different trades.
Friday rewarded the prior session's hardest-hit growth names after CPI landed close to expectations and oil eased. Marvell gained 4.03%, Intel rose 2.61%, Amazon added 1.94%, Alphabet gained 1.77% and Apple rose 1.75%. Nine of the twelve advanced, while Nebius, Robinhood and Nvidia declined.
Monday's premarket move is concentrated in the AI infrastructure chain. Nebius, Marvell and Intel are down 6.25%-7.82%, and Nvidia is down 2.38%. Reuters linked the early chip sell-off to weekend calls from AI leaders to slow frontier development for safety. No tracked company cut guidance or disclosed a contract cancellation.
The software and platform prints are not uniformly negative. Meta, Alphabet, Palantir, Microsoft and Apple are positive in the later Twelve Data snapshot. That dispersion says investors are distinguishing immediate compute and capital-spending exposure from businesses whose revenue base is broader.
Macro can still overtake the company stories. Brent returned above $108 early Monday, the ten-year yield sat near 4.96%, and the Fed decision is due Wednesday. Higher energy and discount rates both raise the hurdle for long-duration AI investment.
Nothing material
AMZN · TSLA · PLTR · MSFT · GOOGL · HOOD · NVDA · INTC · NBIS · MRVL · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
The weekend catalyst was industry-wide, not a new company filing
Apple issued a product-availability update on 11 September; no comparably material company announcement dated 11-13 September was found for the other tracked names in the company sources reviewed. Monday's large chip and AI-infrastructure moves therefore follow the weekend safety debate and the rise in oil and yields, not a disclosed change to company guidance.
Recycled items were kept in their original dates. Nvidia's $12.93bn agreement to acquire Hugging Face was announced on 3 September; the Palantir-Nebius partnership was dated 8 September; Marvell's latest product and interoperability material was dated 9-10 September; Meta's Muse launch was dated 8 September.
Evidence limits. Prices come from two rate-limited Twelve Data quote batches fetched at 07:42-07:43 ET on 14 September. Eleven extended timestamps are genuine Monday premarket observations from 07:02 to 07:43 ET. Robinhood's timestamp is 19:59 ET on 11 September, so its 0.00% print is recorded as after-hours and Monday premarket is null.
Earnings within 14 days
15-16 SepMacro FOMC meeting; decision and press conference on 16 September
15-17 SepMRVL product demonstrations and executive sessions at AI Infra Summit
18 SepAAPL iPhone 18 Pro, Apple Watch Series 12 and AirPods 5 availability
by 2 OctGOOGL jointly proposed final judgment in the ad-tech case
6 OctMRVL investor day
16 OctAAPL iPhone Duo pre-orders; availability begins 23 October
Apple +3.56%: the largest gain of the twelve and a stronger post-event verdict on iPhone Duo than Wednesday's nearly flat close.
Intel -5.57%: the largest fall of the twelve, reversing part of a two-session surge without a new operating release.
Nebius -5.09%: the second-largest fall of the twelve as higher yields weighed on a capital-intensive AI buildout with no fresh contract economics.
The tape split 3 advancers and 9 decliners. Of 11 current premarket readings, 9 are higher and 2 lower; PLTR's latest extended print is Thursday after-hours, not Friday premarket.
Market-wide
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow lost 0.6% and the Nasdaq composite declined 0.7% on Thursday. QQQ fell 1.06%
Oil extended the inflation shock and produced a fourth straight S&P declineAP reported that Brent rose 6.3%, briefly topped $108 and settled at $107.63 as the Iran war continued to constrain crude flows. Nine of these twelve stocks declined, with Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft the exceptions.
August PPI rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year. The ten-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.95% from 4.83%
Producer inflation turned an oil move into a higher discount rateBLS said final-demand goods prices rose 1.1%, with energy up 4.2% and diesel up 24.1%. AP reported that the implied probability of a rate increase at next week's Fed meeting rose to about 73% from 61% the day before.
August CPI is due today at 08:30 ET. Brent was down 3.3% near $104.09, the ten-year yield was around 4.94% and QQQ was up 0.62% before the release
Premarket is attempting a relief move, but the CPI result has not been observedNine of the 11 available ticker premarket readings were positive. The snapshot is evidence of positioning before CPI, not a reaction to CPI. The 15-16 September FOMC meeting remains the next policy decision.
Apple gained 3.56%, the largest gain of the twelve, in the full session after its iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro event.
Major move · post-event iPhone response · settled close
Close $326.57, +3.56% from $315.34 Traded from $316.51 to $326.74, a 3.23% low-to-high range Volume 69.93m shares against a 44.71m average, 156% of normal Premarket -0.21% at $325.89, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 5.22% below its 52-week high of $344.57 It gained 3.13% from the open while QQQ fell 1.06% Volume reached 156% of normal, the heaviest volume of the twelve iPhone Duo starts at $1,999; pre-orders begin 16 October and availability begins 23 October
Why it mattersThursday supplied the positive follow-through that Wednesday's nearly flat event-day close did not. The $1,999 foldable can lift mix if demand holds, but the delayed order window means the move still precedes evidence on units, component cost and gross margin.
Already priced in?The full-session response is substantial and came on 156% of average volume. The 0.21% premarket decline is small beside Thursday's gain.
Would flip ifOctober pre-orders reveal weak demand, or the folding display and hinge carry enough cost or warranty risk to offset the premium price.
Source and dateApple product announcements dated 9 September; Apple's archive showed no newly dated 10 September product release.
Intel fell 5.57%, the largest fall of the twelve, without a newly dated Thursday company announcement in the sources reviewed.
Major move · reversal without a fresh operating release · settled close
Close $100.32, -5.57% from $106.24 Traded from $99.34 to $103.23, a 3.92% low-to-high range Volume 96.35m shares against a 89.85m average, 107% of normal Premarket +1.19% at $101.51, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 29.53% below its 52-week high of $142.35 It fell 2.08% from the open and finished below $101 The stock had gained 10.90% across Tuesday and Wednesday on a compounded basis Premarket recovered 1.19% to $101.51
Why it mattersThe decline reverses part of a two-session surge that followed an unconfirmed report of another PC-CPU price increase. Intel supplied no Thursday update to confirm volume, timing or demand elasticity. Higher oil, producer inflation and Treasury yields supplied a common valuation headwind for chip shares.
Already priced in?Thursday erased about half of the prior two-session compounded gain. The premarket bounce recovers only part of that decline.
Would flip ifIntel confirms pricing and demand economics, or rejects the report and removes the margin premise behind the earlier rally.
Source and dateIntel newsroom reviewed through 10 September; the reported CPU price change and Intel-ASML update were dated 8 September.
Nebius fell 5.09%, the second-largest fall of the twelve, with no company release dated Thursday after the Palantir partnership and Citi appearance earlier in the week.
Major move · partnership premium unwound · settled close
Close $228.11, -5.09% from $240.35 Traded from $226.03 to $238.33, a 5.44% low-to-high range Volume 13.01m shares against a 13.82m average, 94% of normal Premarket +2.36% at $233.50, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 23.93% below its 52-week high of $299.86 It fell 1.68% from the open across a 5.44% intraday range Premarket recovered 2.36% to $233.50 The 8 September partnership named Nebius as Palantir's preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner for eligible commercial customers
Why it mattersNebius combines rapid demand with a capital-intensive buildout, making a jump in long-term yields especially relevant to its valuation. The Palantir route to market remains strategically positive, but it still has no disclosed contract value, capacity commitment or minimum spend.
Already priced in?The shares have declined in both settled sessions after Tuesday's 7.73% partnership-day gain. Friday premarket recovers less than half of Thursday's fall.
Would flip ifThe partnership converts into contracted capacity and term commitments, or financing and construction costs rise faster than revenue.
Source and datePalantir-Nebius release dated 8 September; Nebius Citi event dated 9 September; no newer Nebius newsroom release was found.
Marvell fell 3.43%, reversing much of Wednesday's 4.26% gain, without a new Thursday press release.
Major move · summit-release reversal · settled close
Close $226.96, -3.43% from $235.01 Traded from $226.15 to $234.49, a 3.69% low-to-high range Volume 16.36m shares against a 24.86m average, 66% of normal Premarket +0.98% at $229.18, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 31.20% below its 52-week high of $329.88 Volume was 66% of normal, the lightest volume of the twelve It closed 31.20% below its 52-week high, the largest gap of the twelve Premarket recovered 0.98% to $229.18 The dated catalyst remains the 9 September AI Infra Summit portfolio announcement
Why it mattersThe prior release described switching, optical, memory and storage products but no new order or guidance. Thursday's reversal on light volume says the initial positioning premium was fragile, while Friday premarket is attempting a partial recovery ahead of next week's summit.
Already priced in?Two settled sessions leave the shares only 0.69% above Tuesday's close on a compounded basis. The market has not sustained Wednesday's product-positioning premium.
Would flip ifThe summit produces customer, volume or timing evidence, or product deployment and interoperability fall short.
Source and dateMarvell company release dated 9 September; Marvell press-release archive reviewed through 10 September.
Nvidia fell 2.37% on the day of its Goldman Sachs conference appearance as chip shares absorbed the rise in oil and Treasury yields.
Notable move · conference day under macro pressure · settled close
Close $218.36, -2.37% from $223.67 Traded from $217.20 to $220.99, a 1.74% low-to-high range Volume 105.48m shares against a 146.70m average, 72% of normal Premarket +0.75% at $220.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 7.69% below its 52-week high of $236.54 It fell 0.98% from the open Premarket recovered 0.75% to $220.00 The previously announced Australian ecosystem target remains up to 2 GW by 2027
Why it mattersNo new guidance or contract value accompanied Thursday's investor event in the materials reviewed. The Australian capacity announcement remains an ecosystem target rather than a booked Nvidia order, so a 12-basis-point rise in the ten-year yield supplied the clearer common pressure on valuation.
Already priced in?The settled decline came on 72% of average volume and is partly retraced premarket. The stock remains 7.69% below its 52-week high.
Would flip ifManagement or partners quantify systems, timing or contracted demand, or the higher-rate environment persists and compresses AI multiples further.
Source and dateNvidia Goldman Sachs event dated 10 September; Australia ecosystem announcement dated 9 September.
Close $165.86, -2.16% from $169.53 Traded from $164.55 to $169.00, a 2.70% low-to-high range Volume 21.28m shares against a 28.85m average, 74% of normal After-hours +0.39% at $166.50 at 19:59 ET; no current Friday premarket print was returned Closed 20.08% below its 52-week high of $207.52 It fell 0.89% from the open The 19:59 ET print was +0.39% after-hours; Twelve Data did not return a current Friday premarket observation Presenting customers included Cisco, Eaton, the FAA, L3Harris, Novartis, Nvidia, Ondas Sentinel, USA TODAY and Zeta Global AIP added Gemini 3.8 Flash and GPT-5.6 models on eligible enrollments, while Pipeline Builder evaluation suites became generally available
Why it mattersAIPCon supplied evidence that customers are deploying Palantir software in operating workflows, and the product updates broaden model choice and validation. The release gave no new contract value or guidance, and the negative close shows that deployment breadth did not overcome a higher discount rate.
Already priced in?The customer and product evidence is public, but investors withheld a financial premium. The only extended print available was Thursday evening, not Friday premarket.
Would flip ifNamed deployments convert into larger disclosed contracts and retention, or conference use cases fail to translate into revenue.
Source and datePalantir AIPCon release and product announcements dated 10 September.
Robinhood fell 1.69% before reporting mixed August operating data after Thursday's close, then traded 0.86% lower Friday premarket.
Notable move · August operating data after the close · mixed
Close $113.33, -1.69% from $115.28 Traded from $111.95 to $116.30, a 3.89% low-to-high range Volume 16.38m shares against a 22.24m average, 74% of normal Premarket -0.86% at $112.35, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 26.34% below its 52-week high of $153.86 Funded customers reached 28.6m, up about 120,000 from July and 1.9m year over year Platform assets reached $384bn, up 8% month over month and 26% year over year August net deposits were $4.0bn, a 14% annualized rate relative to July assets Equity notional rose 1% from July; options contracts fell 10%, event contracts fell 23% and crypto notional rose 61%
Why it mattersCustomer, asset and deposit growth support the asset-gathering story, while the sequential declines in options and event-contract activity reduce the read-through to transaction revenue. The negative premarket response indicates the mix mattered more than the headline asset gain.
Already priced in?The report arrived after the settled decline. Friday's 0.86% premarket fall is the available market response to the full dataset.
Would flip ifSeptember data show renewed options and event activity with durable deposits, or lower activity persists and weakens transaction revenue.
Source and dateRobinhood August operating-data release dated 10 September.
Meta fell 1.42% without a new Thursday newsroom post, giving back part of Wednesday's 6.55% Muse rally.
Notable move · Muse gain partially unwound · settled close
Close $644.38, -1.42% from $653.69 Traded from $642.14 to $663.50, a 3.33% low-to-high range Volume 21.49m shares against a 18.90m average, 114% of normal Premarket +0.51% at $647.65, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 18.52% below its 52-week high of $790.80 It fell 1.43% from the open Volume remained above average at 114% of normal Premarket recovered 0.51% to $647.65 Muse's core service is free, while Meta has not disclosed subscription pricing, adoption targets or inference cost
Why it mattersThe two-day pattern says investors retained part of the value assigned to a consumer agent but reduced the initial enthusiasm. Without pricing or usage economics, the valuation still rests on product optionality rather than a measurable earnings contribution.
Already priced in?Thursday did not erase Wednesday's gain, and premarket is positive. The missing operating metrics remain the limit on the thesis.
Would flip ifMeta discloses strong adoption and paid conversion, or inference, safety and support costs make the service uneconomic.
Source and dateMeta Muse announcement dated 8 September; no Meta newsroom post dated 10 September was found.
Tesla fell 1.16% without a material company announcement dated 10 September in the sources reviewed.
Notable move · no newly dated operating catalyst · settled close
Close $363.56, -1.16% from $367.81 Traded from $357.68 to $369.21, a 3.22% low-to-high range Volume 29.60m shares against a 43.68m average, 68% of normal Premarket +0.12% at $364.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 27.12% below its 52-week high of $498.83 It gained 0.82% from the open but remained below Wednesday's close Premarket was +0.12% at $364.00 The latest identified operating events remain the 3 September Cybercab launch and the 4 September NHTSA investigation
Why it mattersWith no new operating disclosure, Thursday's decline belongs more convincingly to the broad risk-off tape than to a new Tesla-specific fact. The unresolved Cybercab investigation remains the next source of measurable operating information.
Already priced in?The shares are still below the 3 September close and are nearly unchanged premarket.
Would flip ifNHTSA narrows or expands the investigation, or Tesla publishes remedy, utilization or service-availability data.
Next dateThird-quarter deliveries are due in early October; results are scheduled for 21 October.
Alphabet gained 0.59% as Google launched the Gemini app for Windows and Google Public Sector announced an AI-campus collaboration with Morgan State University.
Minor move · Gemini Windows launch and education deployment · settled close
Close $332.60, +0.59% from $330.65 Traded from $327.74 to $333.23, a 1.68% low-to-high range Volume 23.51m shares against a 25.16m average, 93% of normal Premarket +0.43% at $334.04, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 18.60% below its 52-week high of $408.61 It gained 1.33% from the open Premarket added 0.43% to $334.04 The Windows app uses Alt + Space and can connect to Gmail and Drive for multi-step tasks Morgan State will receive GPU compute through Google's Program for Accelerated Research, plus Google SecOps and Mandiant technology
Why it mattersA native Windows app widens Gemini's distribution beyond the browser, while the Morgan State deployment adds a public-sector reference customer across compute, security and training. Neither announcement disclosed price, seat count or contract value, so the close is positive product evidence rather than a revenue estimate.
Already priced in?The stock gained despite a lower QQQ and added another 0.43% premarket, but the releases do not quantify economics.
Would flip ifWindows usage and paid conversion remain low, or education deployments fail to expand into material cloud consumption.
Source and dateGoogle Gemini app post and Google Public Sector release dated 10 September.
Amazon fell 0.20% as it added six Ariane 6 launches for Amazon Leo and committed more than $230m to Whole Foods pay and benefits over the coming year.
Minor move · Leo launch capacity and Whole Foods investment · settled close
Close $251.89, -0.20% from $252.40 Traded from $249.58 to $253.15, a 1.43% low-to-high range Volume 25.44m shares against a 33.28m average, 76% of normal Premarket +0.77% at $253.82, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 12.29% below its 52-week high of $287.20 It gained 0.71% from the open Premarket added 0.77% to $253.82 The Arianespace commitment increases from 18 to 24 launches; the provider has placed 100 Leo satellites in orbit across three missions Whole Foods' plan covers more than 100,000 US team members, with pay changes starting 28 September and Amazon benefits from 1 January 2027
Why it mattersThe additional launches increase the committed cost base but also reduce deployment bottlenecks before Leo's initial service rollout. The Whole Foods programme is a disclosed near-term expense intended to support retention and store execution. Neither release quantified a direct revenue offset.
Already priced in?The regular-session response was almost flat, while premarket is positive. The launch contract value and expected labour savings are undisclosed.
Would flip ifLeo launch execution accelerates paying coverage, or launch and labour costs rise without enough subscriber and grocery productivity gains.
Source and dateAmazon Leo and Whole Foods company announcements dated 10 September.
Microsoft gained 0.16% as it published a Safe Participation Framework for privacy-preserving, age-appropriate AI and online services.
Minor move · youth AI safety framework · settled close
Close $492.44, +0.16% from $491.65 Traded from $486.00 to $494.52, a 1.75% low-to-high range Volume 16.02m shares against a 21.15m average, 76% of normal Premarket +0.20% at $493.44, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 11.07% below its 52-week high of $553.72 It gained 0.84% from the open Premarket added 0.20% to $493.44 The framework covers safety by design, age-differentiated experiences, and education and empowerment Microsoft said Copilot users must sign in and access is restricted for children under 13, or older where local law requires
Why it mattersThe framework can reduce regulatory and trust friction around youth use, but it also commits Microsoft to continuing safeguards, age signals and education work. No customer, revenue or cost figure was attached, which fits the small price response.
Already priced in?The stock was nearly flat at the close and in premarket. The framework is a risk-governance document rather than a financial update.
Would flip ifThe safeguards materially improve adoption and trust, or compliance obligations restrict use and raise cost.
Source and dateMicrosoft On the Issues post dated 10 September.
Read-through
Apple separated from a rate-driven sell-off; Friday premarket is trying to reverse the same pattern.
Apple was the clear company-specific exception. The shares gained 3.56% on 156% of average volume in the full session after the iPhone event. That moved the reaction from Wednesday's indecision toward a positive assessment of the $1,999 Duo, although the October order window means demand and margin evidence are still pending.
The drawdown concentrated in recently strong AI and chip names. Intel and Nebius each fell more than 5%, Marvell lost 3.43%, Nvidia declined 2.37% and Palantir fell 2.16%. Intel, Nebius and Marvell had no newly dated Thursday operating release; Palantir did hold AIPCon 11, but its customer and product evidence came without new contract value or guidance. Higher oil, PPI and the ten-year yield supplied the common mechanism.
Robinhood's after-close report was mixed rather than weak across the board. Assets, funded customers and deposits grew, crypto notional rose from July, and equity notional edged higher. Options and event-contract activity fell sequentially, and the stock is lower premarket. That makes the revenue mix the relevant question.
The premarket recovery is broad but provisional. QQQ is up 0.62%, Brent has retreated from Thursday's peak and nine of 11 observed ticker prints are positive. CPI arrives after this snapshot and can validate or reverse that relief move.
Nothing material
INTC · NBIS · MRVL · META · TSLA, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Five moves lacked a newly dated Thursday operating announcement
No material company announcement dated 10 September was found for Intel, Nebius, Marvell, Meta or Tesla in the company sources reviewed. Intel reversed part of its 8-9 September surge; Nebius and Meta gave back part of earlier partnership and Muse gains; Marvell reversed much of Wednesday's summit-release move; Tesla traded with the risk-off tape.
Fresh Thursday information. Robinhood released August operating data after the close. Palantir held AIPCon 11 and published AIP product updates. Google launched Gemini for Windows and announced a Morgan State AI-campus collaboration. Amazon expanded Leo launch capacity and Whole Foods compensation. Microsoft published its youth AI safety framework. Nvidia appeared at Goldman Sachs without a new guidance release in the materials reviewed.
Evidence limits. Prices come from one Twelve Data quote fetch at 07:03 ET on 11 September. Eleven extended timestamps are genuine Friday premarket observations from 04:36 to 07:01 ET. Palantir's feed timestamp is 19:59 ET on 10 September, so its +0.39% print is recorded as after-hours and Friday premarket is null.
Earnings within 14 days
11 SepMacro August Consumer Price Index, 08:30 ET
15-16 SepMacro FOMC meeting and decision
15-17 SepMRVL product demonstrations and executive sessions at AI Infra Summit
18 SepAAPL Apple Watch Series 12 and AirPods 5 availability
by 2 OctGOOGL jointly proposed final judgment in the ad-tech case
6 OctMRVL investor day
16 OctAAPL iPhone Duo pre-orders; availability begins 23 October
Meta +6.55%: the largest gain of the twelve and the settled reaction to Muse, the personal agent launched late Tuesday.
Marvell +4.26%: the second-largest gain of the twelve as the company set out the connectivity and memory products it will show at next week's AI Infra Summit.
Alphabet -2.28%: the largest fall of the twelve as Google committed a minimum of EUR13bn to Finland infrastructure while higher oil and Treasury yields pressured the wider market.
The tape split 3 advancers and 9 decliners. Thursday premarket splits 4 higher and 8 lower, with QQQ down 0.30% before PPI.
Market-wide
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow lost 0.8% and the Nasdaq composite declined 0.6% on Wednesday. Brent crude jumped 3.4% and moved back above $100
Oil, inflation expectations and bond yields outweighed two large company-specific ralliesAP reported that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Higher energy and freight costs raise near-term inflation expectations, while the ten-year Treasury yield reached 4.85% before ending at 4.84%, up from 4.80%. Nine of these twelve stocks declined even though Meta and Marvell advanced sharply.
The two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.43% from 4.39%. AP put the probability of a September Fed increase at 62%
The discount-rate channel is visible in the breadth, not in every stockA higher short yield raises the required return on future profits and can weigh heavily on long-duration technology shares. The regular-session split and a 0.29% QQQ decline fit that mechanism. Meta's product launch and Marvell's AI narrative were strong enough to run against it.
August PPI is due today at 08:30 ET and CPI follows Friday at 08:30 ET. Brent was $101.52 early Thursday while QQQ was down 0.30% premarket
The next two inflation prints can turn an oil shock into a rate decisionA hot producer-price result would reinforce the rise in yields and the case for tightening at the 15-16 September FOMC meeting. A softer result would separate the current energy shock from broader inflation. The premarket snapshot was taken before the release and should not be read as its verdict.
Meta rose 6.55%, the largest gain of the twelve, in the first full cash session after its late-Tuesday launch of Muse.
Major move · first full-session Muse reaction · settled close
Close $653.69, +6.55% from $613.48 Traded from $638.56 to $657.86, a 3.02% low-to-high range Volume 35.84m shares against a 19.89m average, 180% of normal Premarket +1.42% at $663.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 17.34% below its 52-week high of $790.80 Volume reached 180% of normal, the heaviest volume of the twelve It gained 0.78% from the open and added +1.42% premarket Muse runs in a dedicated Secure VM, works in WhatsApp and can use Stripe Link for purchases The US rollout covers iOS, Android and muse.ai; core use is free with paid plans for more
Why it mattersMuse moves Meta from embedded chatbots toward an agent that can browse, fill forms, book travel and complete purchases. That expands the consumer product surface, but Meta disclosed neither user targets nor subscription pricing, revenue or inference cost. Wednesday's reaction therefore prices an option on adoption rather than a measured earnings contribution.
Already priced in?The first settled reaction is large and came on 180% of average volume. A further 1.42% premarket gain says enthusiasm remains, while the business model is still undisclosed.
Would flip ifAdoption, paid conversion or retention disappoints, or inference, safety and support costs make the service uneconomic.
Source and dateMeta company announcement dated 8 September; AP market coverage dated 9 September.
Marvell gained 4.26%, the second-largest gain of the twelve, as it detailed the connectivity and memory portfolio it will show at AI Infra Summit next week.
Major move · AI-connectivity product positioning · settled close
Close $235.01, +4.26% from $225.41 Traded from $223.60 to $241.88, a 8.18% low-to-high range Volume 20.44m shares against a 24.93m average, 82% of normal Premarket -1.45% at $231.60, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 28.76% below its 52-week high of $329.88 It gained 5.01% from the open across an 8.18% range The portfolio includes a 102 Tbps Ethernet switch and a 256-lane PCIe 6.0 switch Marvell also listed Photonic Fabric, RELIANT telemetry, CXL memory and PCIe 6.0 NVMe storage AI Infra Summit runs 15-17 September in Santa Clara
Why it mattersThe release puts Marvell across switch, optical, memory and storage links that determine accelerator utilization. It names products but no customer, order value or guidance increase. That makes the 4.26% move a strong vote on positioning rather than a response to newly quantified revenue.
Already priced in?The price reaction is substantial despite no new order or guidance. Premarket is 1.45% lower, giving back part of Wednesday's gain.
Would flip ifThe summit produces no customer evidence, or product timing, power and interoperability limits delay revenue.
Source and dateMarvell company release dated 9 September.
Alphabet fell 2.28%, the largest fall of the twelve, as Google announced a minimum of EUR13bn of Finland digital and AI infrastructure investment for 2027-2028.
Notable move · €13bn Finland infrastructure plan · settled close
Close $330.65, -2.28% from $338.36 Traded from $327.90 to $331.85, a 1.20% low-to-high range Volume 33.08m shares against a 24.85m average, 133% of normal Premarket +0.01% at $330.67, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 19.08% below its 52-week high of $408.61 The plan covers Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala across 2027-2028 Volume was 133% of normal Premarket is effectively flat at +0.01%
Why it mattersThe programme expands capacity in four Finnish locations and supports long-run AI supply, but it also adds a large capital commitment before the return is visible. Oil, higher yields and a lower QQQ provide a common negative backdrop, so the close cannot isolate how much of the fall belongs to spending concerns.
Already priced in?Wednesday supplied a settled negative reaction, but the macro sell-off prevents a clean company-only read. The premarket is flat.
Would flip ifGoogle discloses contracted demand or returns that justify the spending, or the programme materially exceeds its current cost and timing.
Source and dateGoogle company announcement dated 9 September.
Amazon fell 1.78%, the second-largest decline of the twelve, despite announcing a Wiwynn server-rack manufacturing expansion in Socorro, Texas.
Notable move · Texas manufacturing expansion and air-crash update · settled close
Close $252.40, -1.78% from $256.97 Traded from $250.65 to $254.69, a 1.61% low-to-high range Volume 33.01m shares against a 32.89m average, 100% of normal Premarket +0.08% at $252.60, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 12.12% below its 52-week high of $287.20 Wiwynn said its investment in the facility exceeds $1.6bn The partners expect nearly 1,000 new jobs by the end of 2027 and more than 2,500 workers next year Amazon's 9 September update said the NTSB investigation continues and that 21 Air operated the flight
Why it mattersDomestic rack production can shorten supply chains for AWS, but the disclosed $1.6bn is Wiwynn's investment and the release gives no Amazon purchase commitment. Retailers also weakened as fuel costs rose, while Amazon updated its response to the 21 Air-operated fatal cargo crash. The close combines all three channels.
Already priced in?The stock closed lower on normal volume and is nearly flat premarket. No standalone financial value for the facility or crash exposure is disclosed.
Would flip ifAmazon discloses material purchase commitments, schedule savings or crash liabilities not visible in the current releases.
Source and dateAmazon company announcements dated 9 September; the board elected Kevin Mandia on 8 September and disclosed it on 9 September.
Close $115.28, -1.76% from $117.34 Traded from $115.09 to $121.42, a 5.50% low-to-high range Volume 18.50m shares against a 21.92m average, 84% of normal Premarket -0.57% at $114.62, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 25.07% below its 52-week high of $153.86 Opened at $120.77 and fell 4.55% to the close Tenev said sports is a wedge that can broaden use into more prediction-market categories August monthly metrics are anticipated today at 16:05 ET
Why it mattersThe conference reiterated prediction markets as a customer-acquisition wedge and part of an active-trader stack, but it did not replace a reported monthly operating dataset. The shares fell 4.55% from the open, so investors did not reward the narrative ahead of August metrics due today.
Already priced in?The market rejected the conference narrative on Wednesday. The quantitative test arrives after today's close.
Would flip ifMonthly customers, deposits or trading activity materially beat or miss the trend implied at the conference.
Source and dateRobinhood investor event and conference transcript dated 9 September; the Crypto.com and OG.com agreement was announced 8 September.
Intel rose 1.69% without a newly dated Wednesday company announcement, extending Tuesday's 9.05% gain on a reported PC-CPU price increase.
Notable move · second-day response to unconfirmed report · settled close
Close $106.24, +1.69% from $104.47 Traded from $102.70 to $106.69, a 3.89% low-to-high range Volume 96.61m shares against a 87.77m average, 110% of normal Premarket -1.32% at $104.84, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 25.37% below its 52-week high of $142.35 It gained 3.45% from its $102.70 open The DigiTimes report is dated 8 September and points to an early-October change
Why it mattersA roughly 10% price increase can support gross margin if demand holds, but the report remains unconfirmed by Intel and does not quantify unit elasticity. Wednesday's smaller gain looks like follow-through rather than new evidence, and the stock is 1.32% lower premarket.
Already priced in?Two settled gains total 10.90% on a compounded basis, while the premarket gives back 1.32%. The company still has not supplied the missing economics.
Would flip ifIntel rejects the report, demand weakens enough to offset price, or confirmed terms differ materially.
Source and dateDigiTimes supply-chain report dated 8 September; no corresponding Intel announcement dated 9 September was found.
Nebius fell 1.45% after Palantir named it the preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner for eligible commercial customers and its CEO spoke at Citi.
Notable move · Palantir partnership and Citi appearance · market rejected
Close $240.35, -1.45% from $243.88 Traded from $240.20 to $250.27, a 4.19% low-to-high range Volume 11.34m shares against a 13.57m average, 84% of normal Premarket -2.64% at $234.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 19.85% below its 52-week high of $299.86 It fell 3.05% from the open The partners said Nebius endpoints will become available inside Palantir's enterprise perimeter after integration The -2.64% move is the weakest premarket reading of the twelve
Why it mattersThe partnership creates a route for Nebius compute and inference inside Palantir's enterprise perimeter, but it discloses no contract value, capacity commitment or minimum spend. Management again described demand above supply. The stock's decline after Tuesday's 7.73% gain says investors did not add another premium for the new detail.
Already priced in?The partnership was public before Wednesday's session, which closed lower; premarket is down a further 2.64%. The market needs contracted economics, not another demand description.
Would flip ifThe partnership converts into disclosed capacity, price and term commitments, or fails to produce customer demand after integration.
Source and datePalantir-Nebius company release dated 8 September; Nebius Citi event and transcript dated 9 September.
Nvidia fell 0.91% as it announced an Australian ecosystem buildout designed to host up to 2 GW of AI infrastructure by 2027.
Minor move · Australian ecosystem capacity announcement · market rejected
Close $223.67, -0.91% from $225.73 Traded from $223.46 to $226.18, a 1.22% low-to-high range Volume 82.74m shares against a 154.12m average, 54% of normal Premarket -0.30% at $223.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 5.44% below its 52-week high of $236.54 Partners named include Firmus, Sharon AI, IREN, Megaport, ResetData, CDC, NEXTDC and AirTrunk The target is up to 2 GW by 2027 The close sits 5.44% below its 52-week high, the smallest gap of the twelve
Why it mattersThe release broadens land, power and shell capacity around Nvidia's DSX platform, but 'up to' 2 GW is an ecosystem target rather than an Nvidia order or recognised revenue. The negative close alongside higher yields suggests the strategic headline did not override macro pressure.
Already priced in?No disclosed system count, purchase schedule or contract value allows a revenue calculation. Premarket is down another 0.30%.
Would flip ifPartners convert the capacity target into orders and energized sites, or power and permitting constraints delay the buildout.
Source and dateNvidia company announcement dated 9 September.
Microsoft fell 0.47% as it agreed with the AFT and UFT on a National AI Safety and Privacy Standard that school districts can add to Microsoft contracts.
Minor move · enforceable school AI standard · settled close
Close $491.65, -0.47% from $493.95 Traded from $489.80 to $494.39, a 0.94% low-to-high range Volume 12.88m shares against a 21.62m average, 60% of normal Premarket -0.03% at $491.50, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 11.21% below its 52-week high of $553.72 The standard says student and educator data will not train AI models, be sold or be repurposed Districts can add the provisions directly to Microsoft customer agreements
Why it mattersThe standard may reduce adoption friction by making privacy protections enforceable, but it also adds contractual obligations and gives districts remedies. The release contains no customer count or revenue impact, so the stock's small decline is not evidence for either side of that trade-off.
Already priced in?The rules are public; adoption and economics are not. Premarket is nearly flat at -0.03%.
Would flip ifDistricts adopt the language widely and accelerate purchases, or compliance and remedy costs outweigh new demand.
Source and dateAFT, UFT and Microsoft joint announcement dated 9 September.
Palantir fell 0.45% in the first full session after naming Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner.
Minor move · Nebius sovereign infrastructure partnership · market rejected
Close $169.53, -0.45% from $170.30 Traded from $168.61 to $171.86, a 1.93% low-to-high range Volume 20.29m shares against a 29.50m average, 69% of normal Premarket -0.31% at $169.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 18.31% below its 52-week high of $207.52 It fell 1.13% from the open The companies said eligible customers will access Nebius cloud and inference endpoints after integration
Why it mattersEmbedding Nebius capacity can widen Palantir's infrastructure choice for customers that need control over compute, data and models. The release gives no contract value or minimum volume, and both stocks fell Wednesday, so the market withheld a financial premium.
Already priced in?The partnership was public before the session and the shares closed lower. Premarket is down another 0.31%.
Would flip ifThe companies disclose customer uptake and contracted economics, or integration fails to produce demand.
Source and datePalantir-Nebius joint announcement dated 8 September.
Apple fell 0.28% after unveiling iPhone Duo, iPhone 18 Pro, Apple Watch Series 12 and AirPods 5 during Wednesday's session.
Minor move · iPhone Duo launch and wider hardware event · settled close
Close $315.34, -0.28% from $316.22 Traded from $309.90 to $319.15, a 2.98% low-to-high range Volume 65.37m shares against a 41.10m average, 159% of normal Premarket +1.16% at $319.01, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 8.48% below its 52-week high of $344.57 Volume reached 159% of normal, the second-heaviest volume of the twelve iPhone Duo starts at $1,999, with pre-orders on 16 October and availability on 23 October The foldable has a 7.6-inch inner display and uses the A20 Pro, N1 wireless chip and C2 modem AirPods 5 start at $129; Apple Watch Series 12 starts at $399
Why it mattersDuo opens a premium foldable category and brings a $1,999 starting price, but its 23 October availability delays the demand read. A nearly flat close on elevated volume means the event changed Apple's product map without producing a decisive same-day valuation move.
Already priced in?The same-day close was nearly flat, while premarket is up 1.16%. Orders will not begin for more than a month, leaving demand and mix unresolved.
Would flip ifPre-orders show stronger or weaker demand than the $1,999 price and delayed launch imply, or component cost changes the margin outcome.
Source and dateApple product announcements dated 9 September.
Tesla closed almost flat, down 0.10%, without a material company announcement dated 9 September in the sources reviewed.
Minor move · no newly dated company catalyst · settled close
Close $367.81, -0.10% from $368.16 Traded from $366.00 to $375.44, a 2.58% low-to-high range Volume 32.49m shares against a 43.58m average, 75% of normal Premarket -0.52% at $365.90, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 26.27% below its 52-week high of $498.83 It moved -0.12% from the open to the close Wednesday's close remained 2.27% below the 3 September close of $376.36
Why it mattersThe latest identified company-specific facts remain the 3 September Cybercab launch and the NHTSA investigation opened on 4 September. A nearly unchanged close and a 0.52% premarket decline do not establish a new operating verdict.
Already priced in?The shares have partially recovered from the investigation-led fall, but remain below the pre-investigation close.
Would flip ifNHTSA narrows or expands the investigation, or Tesla discloses a remedy, timetable or operating impact.
Next dateThird-quarter deliveries are due in early October; results are scheduled for 21 October.
Read-through
Wednesday was a broad macro decline with two exceptions strong enough to overpower it.
Meta had the cleanest event-to-price connection. Muse was announced late Tuesday, leaving Wednesday as the first full cash session to assess it. Meta delivered the largest gain of the twelve. Meta also traded the heaviest volume of the twelve, then added another 1.42% in the premarket snapshot. The market is assigning value to a consumer agent before Meta has disclosed adoption, subscription pricing or compute cost.
Marvell was the second exception. Its 4.26% gain accompanied a company release describing a 102 Tbps Ethernet switch, a 256-lane PCIe 6.0 switch, photonic fabric, telemetry and CXL memory products for next week's AI Infra Summit. That is product positioning, not a new order or guidance change, so the strength of the reaction exceeds the amount of new financial evidence.
The rest of the list mostly followed oil and yields. Alphabet fell 2.28% while committing a minimum of EUR13bn to Finland infrastructure. Amazon fell 1.78% despite a Texas manufacturing expansion. Palantir and Nebius declined after their preferred sovereign-infrastructure partnership, and Nvidia declined despite an Australian ecosystem announcement. Positive strategic headlines did not defeat the higher-rate tape.
Apple was the quiet exception in price, not in news. Its first foldable iPhone starts at $1,999 and will not ship until 23 October. The stock closed down only 0.28% on elevated volume and is 1.16% higher premarket. That says the launch reset the product map without yet settling the demand or margin question.
Nothing material
TSLA · INTC, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Two moves lacked a newly dated Wednesday operating announcement
No material Tesla or Intel company announcement dated 9 September was found in the sources reviewed. Tesla's Cybercab service began on 3 September and NHTSA opened its investigation on 4 September; Wednesday's 0.10% decline is not a new event. Intel's 1.69% advance followed the unconfirmed DigiTimes report dated 8 September that another roughly 10% PC-CPU price increase is planned for early October. Intel had not issued corresponding guidance.
Fresh versus carried forward. Meta's Muse release and the Palantir-Nebius partnership are dated 8 September, but Wednesday was their first full session after publication. Robinhood's Crypto.com and OG.com deal is also dated 8 September; Wednesday's new information came from its 13:50 ET conference appearance. Apple's product releases, Google's Finland investment, Marvell's summit release, Microsoft's school standard, Nvidia's Australia release and Amazon's Texas expansion are dated 9 September.
Evidence limits. Prices and Thursday premarket prints come from one Twelve Data quote fetch. Every extended timestamp was checked and falls on 10 September between 04:43 and 07:02 ET. Company releases describe product capability and planned capacity, not guaranteed revenue. No unsupported dollar effect is assigned to any item.
Earnings within 14 days
10 SepMacro August Producer Price Index, 08:30 ET
10 SepHOOD August monthly metrics anticipated after the close, 16:05 ET
11 SepMacro August Consumer Price Index, 08:30 ET
15-16 SepMacro FOMC meeting and decision
15-17 SepMRVL product demonstrations and executive sessions at AI Infra Summit
18 SepAAPL Apple Watch Series 12 and AirPods 5 availability
by 2 OctGOOGL jointly proposed final judgment in the ad-tech case
6 OctMRVL investor day
16 OctAAPL iPhone Duo pre-orders; availability begins 23 October
Intel +9.05%: a supply-chain report said another roughly 10% PC-CPU price increase is planned for early October. Intel had not announced the change.
Nebius +7.73%: the gain preceded its after-close Goldman Sachs appearance, where management described demand reaching into 2028 and four recent customer wins averaging about $1bn each.
Meta +4.32% premarket: the strongest premarket reading of the twelve followed the late-Tuesday launch of Muse, its general-purpose personal AI agent.
The regular tape split 4 advancers and 8 decliners; QQQ slipped 0.08% as oil and rate concerns outweighed the strongest single-name moves.
Market-wide
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow lost 1.2% and the Nasdaq composite declined 0.3% on Tuesday. Brent settled at $97.92 after touching $99.46
Oil kept the inflation-and-rates channel in control of the index tapeAP tied the session to the Middle East conflict and the risk that dearer energy feeds inflation. Higher expected inflation makes a September Fed increase easier to justify and raises the discount rate applied to long-duration technology profits. Intel, Nebius and Tesla escaped that index pressure; eight names did not.
Brent moved above $100 early Wednesday, while Twelve Data showed QQQ down 0.48% premarket. Reuters put the probability of a September quarter-point Fed increase at 60.4%
The premarket is extending the macro caution rather than Tuesday's single-name ralliesEight names are lower in the premarket snapshot. Amazon's 2.14% fall is the weakest premarket reading of the twelve, while Meta's 4.32% gain is company-specific and runs against QQQ. That split argues against treating either move as the market's sole macro verdict.
August PPI is due Thursday 10 September and CPI Friday 11 September, before the FOMC decision on 16 September.
Inflation data can either validate the oil shock or reduce its rate impactA hotter producer or consumer price print would reinforce the case for tightening; a softer print would weaken it. Those releases are the next common catalyst for all twelve stocks, even where a company event dominates today's card.
Intel rose 9.05%, the largest gain of the twelve, after DigiTimes reported that another roughly 10% increase in PC-CPU prices is planned around 5 October.
Major move · reported pricing action, not company guidance · settled close
Close $104.47, +9.05% from $95.80 Traded from $100.35 to $106.09, a 5.72% low-to-high range Volume 139.49m shares against a 86.19m average, 162% of normal Premarket -1.79% at $102.60, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 26.61% below its 52-week high of $142.35 The +9.05% advance was the largest gain of the twelve It gained 3.61% from its $100.83 open The reported increase is roughly 10% and is said to begin around 5 October
Why it mattersA higher selling price can lift gross margin if unit volume holds. It can also weaken demand or accelerate substitution, and Intel had not announced the reported change, so Tuesday's price move is evidence of investor reaction rather than confirmation of the policy or its earnings effect.
Already priced in?Partly. The stock closed up 9.05% on 162% of average volume, then fell 1.79% premarket. That is a large reaction to an unconfirmed report, not proof that the margin benefit is fully known.
Would flip ifIntel rejects the report, demand weakens enough to offset price, or a confirmed increase comes with materially different timing or scope.
Source and dateDigiTimes supply-chain report dated 8 September; Intel had not issued corresponding guidance in the reviewed company materials.
Nebius gained 7.73% before management's 18:45 ET Goldman Sachs conference appearance; the presentation therefore cannot explain Tuesday's settled advance.
Major move · after-close demand detail · settled close
Close $243.88, +7.73% from $226.39 Traded from $234.32 to $254.74, a 8.71% low-to-high range Volume 26.60m shares against a 13.77m average, 193% of normal Premarket -1.18% at $241.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 18.67% below its 52-week high of $299.86 The +7.73% rise was the second-largest gain of the twelve Volume reached 193% of normal, the heaviest participation of the twelve It gained 3.85% from the open and traded across an 8.71% low-to-high range Management described four recent customer wins averaging about $1bn each
Why it mattersThe after-close comments are relevant to Wednesday rather than the Tuesday tape. Management said demand reaches into the first half of 2028, four recent customer wins average about $1bn each, and Blackwell capacity cleared at prices 15-20% above the prior list. Those claims strengthen the demand picture but do not disclose contract-by-contract margins or cash timing.
Already priced in?Tuesday's 7.73% gain came first. The stock is 1.18% lower premarket after the conference, suggesting the new detail has not produced an immediate second leg.
Would flip ifThe company cannot finance or energise capacity on schedule, or the disclosed bookings carry weaker margins and cash terms than investors infer.
Source and dateNebius investor event schedule and Goldman Sachs conference transcript, 8 September; the appearance began after the US close.
Tesla rose 3.98% without a material company announcement dated 8 September, recovering part of Friday's 5.92% decline.
Major move · no newly dated company catalyst · settled close
Close $368.16, +3.98% from $354.08 Traded from $355.80 to $370.00, a 3.99% low-to-high range Volume 50.85m shares against a 43.27m average, 118% of normal Premarket -1.01% at $364.45, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 26.20% below its 52-week high of $498.83 It gained 3.05% from the $357.27 open Tuesday's close remained 2.18% below Thursday's $376.36 close The last identified company-specific shock remains the NHTSA investigation disclosed on 4 September
Why it mattersA rebound after a sharp investigation-led sell-off can reflect short covering or a lower risk premium, but it does not resolve the NHTSA Cybercab inquiry. Tesla still closed 2.18% below Thursday's level and is 1.01% lower premarket, so the two-session evidence remains mixed.
Already priced in?The rebound recovered about two-thirds of Friday's percentage decline, but the stock remains below its pre-investigation close and is softer premarket.
Would flip ifNHTSA closes or materially narrows the investigation, or Tesla discloses a remedy, timetable or operational impact.
Next dateThird-quarter deliveries are due in early October; third-quarter results are scheduled for 21 October.
Robinhood fell 3.91% even after announcing a multi-year Crypto.com and OG.com agreement for football event contracts and equity stakes in both businesses.
Major move · strategic prediction-markets deal · market rejected
Close $117.34, -3.91% from $122.11 Traded from $117.08 to $125.22, a 6.95% low-to-high range Volume 25.84m shares against a 22.51m average, 115% of normal Premarket +1.07% at $118.60, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 23.74% below its 52-week high of $153.86 Opened at $125.07 and fell 6.18% to the close Robinhood said it will continue routing contracts to Kalshi, ForecastEX and Rothera as well as OG.com The company reported more than 30bn event contracts through the end of August this year
Why it mattersThe agreement broadens supply and gives Robinhood equity exposure, but it does not disclose purchase price, ownership percentage, revenue share or expected earnings. The shares fell 6.18% from the open and closed near the session low, so the market did not reward the announcement on Tuesday.
Already priced in?No clear positive repricing is visible in the settled tape. The stock is 1.07% higher premarket, but remains below Tuesday's open.
Would flip ifRegulatory limits tighten, disclosed economics dilute returns, or contract volume fails to convert into durable revenue.
Source and dateRobinhood company announcement dated 8 September.
Palantir fell 2.31% without a material filing, contract or company announcement dated 8 September in the sources reviewed.
Notable move · no newly dated company catalyst · settled close
Close $170.30, -2.31% from $174.33 Traded from $170.02 to $175.82, a 3.41% low-to-high range Volume 24.44m shares against a 29.91m average, 82% of normal Premarket +0.41% at $170.99, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 17.94% below its 52-week high of $207.52 It fell 1.62% from the open to the close
Why it mattersThe absence of a dated catalyst makes the rate-and-positioning explanation more credible than a new operating fact. The stock recovered 0.41% premarket, but that provisional move is too small to overturn Tuesday's decline.
Already priced in?There is no discrete Tuesday event to price. The close came on 82% of average volume.
Would flip ifA dated filing or contract emerges that was not visible in the reviewed sources.
Next dateThe next confirmed company update was not identified; macro risk centres on PPI, CPI and the FOMC decision.
Nvidia fell 2.01%; after the close, a Form 4 disclosed director Mark Stevens's sale of 1,022,239 shares completed on 3-4 September.
Notable move · director sale disclosed after close · settled close
Close $225.73, -2.01% from $230.36 Traded from $224.85 to $233.71, a 3.94% low-to-high range Volume 118.98m shares against a 157.64m average, 75% of normal Premarket -0.63% at $224.31, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 4.57% below its 52-week high of $236.54 The disclosed sales totalled 1,022,239 shares at an average of about $230.51 Approximate proceeds were $235.6m; retained ownership was about 28.9m shares The close was 4.57% below the 52-week high, the smallest gap of the twelve
Why it mattersThe disclosure date is Tuesday, but the transactions happened earlier and therefore cannot explain the entire settled move. At an average price near $230.51, the sales total about $235.6m; the filing also shows Stevens retained roughly 28.9m shares, so the transaction is material but not an exit.
Already priced in?The transactions preceded the filing, while the shares are another 0.63% lower premarket. The tape cannot separate the filing from macro pressure.
Would flip ifSubsequent filings show a broader disposal programme or, conversely, confirm the sale was isolated and completed.
Source and dateNvidia investor-relations Form 4 index, filed 8 September; transaction dates 3-4 September.
Apple fell 1.17% ahead of today's confirmed 10:00 PT company event; no material operating announcement dated Tuesday was found.
Notable move · launch event ahead, no Tuesday operating update · settled close
Close $316.22, -1.17% from $319.97 Traded from $314.92 to $320.70, a 1.84% low-to-high range Volume 35.03m shares against a 37.10m average, 94% of normal Premarket -0.25% at $315.43, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 8.23% below its 52-week high of $344.57 Apple's official event begins 9 September at 10:00 PT / 13:00 ET / 18:00 London
Why it mattersThe event creates near-term product and guidance risk, but the official notice does not identify the products. Tuesday's decline is therefore a positioning move into a known event rather than a response to confirmed launch details.
Already priced in?The known event date is priced; the products, prices, availability and demand response are not. Premarket is down 0.25%.
Would flip ifThe event reveals materially different pricing, launch timing or product scope from market expectations.
Source and dateApple Developer event notice for 9 September; the invitation confirms time, not product content.
Microsoft fell 1.15% as it announced that Codename MDASH has been deployed to Azure Government for preview by selected US government customers and partners.
Notable move · Azure Government security preview · settled close
Close $493.95, -1.15% from $499.70 Traded from $490.15 to $495.19, a 1.03% low-to-high range Volume 18.68m shares against a 22.27m average, 84% of normal Premarket +0.14% at $494.62, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 10.79% below its 52-week high of $553.72 Microsoft says MDASH combines more than 100 agents The company reported a public CyberGym score of 96.55 and expects a newer MAI model to halve scan cost
Why it mattersThe deployment expands Microsoft's autonomous cybersecurity offer into a regulated customer base. The announcement gives no contract value, adoption count or revenue timetable, and the stock's decline alongside QQQ indicates that the market did not assign an immediate financial uplift.
Already priced in?The product capability is public, but customer conversion and economics are not. Premarket is 0.14% higher.
Would flip ifPreview users do not convert, procurement cycles stretch, or measured security performance fails outside benchmarks.
Source and dateMicrosoft company announcement dated 8 September.
Marvell rose 0.83% without a material company announcement dated 8 September in the sources reviewed.
Minor move · no newly dated company catalyst · settled close
Close $225.41, +0.83% from $223.55 Traded from $222.53 to $231.89, a 4.21% low-to-high range Volume 20.29m shares against a 24.98m average, 81% of normal Premarket -1.25% at $222.60, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 31.67% below its 52-week high of $329.88 It fell 0.69% from the open despite finishing above the prior close
Why it mattersA small advance without fresh operating data is better treated as sector positioning than a change in Marvell's earnings path. The 1.25% premarket decline has already more than offset Tuesday's percentage gain.
Already priced in?There is no discrete Tuesday fact to price, and volume was 81% of average.
Would flip ifA dated customer, product or filing disclosure emerges that changes the operating explanation.
Next dateMarvell investor day is scheduled for 6 October.
Amazon fell 0.60% as AWS and Qualcomm announced a multi-generation collaboration on custom AI-inference silicon and 1.6-terabit optical connectivity.
Minor move · conditional Qualcomm collaboration · settled close
Close $256.97, -0.60% from $258.51 Traded from $254.75 to $257.99, a 1.27% low-to-high range Volume 28.79m shares against a 32.07m average, 90% of normal Premarket -2.14% at $251.46, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 10.53% below its 52-week high of $287.20 Reuters said the arrangement could cover up to $60bn of chips and products; that is a ceiling, not an order The warrants were described as worth roughly $4bn at a Qualcomm share price of $161.26 The -2.14% move is the weakest premarket reading of the twelve
Why it mattersThe partnership can diversify AWS silicon and networking supply, but Reuters described the $60bn figure as a maximum under the arrangement rather than committed spending. Qualcomm warrants vest with purchases, so the economics depend on future product uptake.
Already priced in?Tuesday did not show a positive reaction, and the shares are down 2.14% premarket amid a weaker index and oil above $100.
Would flip ifPurchase commitments become firm on unattractive terms, or the programme fails to improve AWS inference economics and capacity.
Source and dateQualcomm company announcement and Reuters reporting dated 8 September.
Meta fell 0.53% on Tuesday, then rose 4.32% premarket after launching Muse, a general-purpose personal AI agent, late in the session.
Minor settled move · Muse launched late Tuesday · premarket reaction
Close $613.48, -0.53% from $616.77 Traded from $609.74 to $624.80, a 2.47% low-to-high range Volume 18.30m shares against a 17.22m average, 106% of normal Premarket +4.32% at $640.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 22.42% below its 52-week high of $790.80 The +4.32% rise is the strongest premarket reading of the twelve Muse is rolling out in the US on iOS, Android and muse.ai, with free core access and paid plans Meta says Muse can work inside WhatsApp, send email, book travel and use Stripe Link for checkout
Why it mattersMuse gives Meta a direct consumer-agent product with free and paid plans, but no user, price, revenue or cost guidance was disclosed. The premarket rise is the clearest reaction available; it remains provisional and may also include macro and positioning effects.
Already priced in?The settled close preceded a full reaction. Premarket is up 4.32%, but adoption, pricing and compute cost remain undisclosed.
Would flip ifEarly use is weak, paid conversion disappoints, or inference and support costs make the service uneconomic.
Source and dateMeta company announcement dated 8 September.
Alphabet was nearly flat on Tuesday, then fell 1.14% premarket as Google announced a €13bn Finland digital-and-AI infrastructure investment for 2027-2028.
Minor settled move · Finland investment announced Wednesday · premarket
Close $338.36, -0.03% from $338.46 Traded from $333.22 to $339.67, a 1.93% low-to-high range Volume 22.26m shares against a 23.54m average, 95% of normal Premarket -1.14% at $334.50, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 17.19% below its 52-week high of $408.61 Google described the €13bn programme as running across 2027-2028 The plan covers Hamina, Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala and was described by Google as its largest single investment in Europe
Why it mattersThe investment adds capacity and supports long-run AI supply, but it is also a large capital commitment whose returns depend on demand and execution. Because the announcement is dated Wednesday, it cannot explain Tuesday's settled move.
Already priced in?The announcement is fresh and the stock is 1.14% lower premarket. The market has not yet provided a settled reaction.
Would flip ifGoogle discloses returns, customer commitments or a spending path materially different from the headline amount.
Source and dateGoogle company announcement dated 9 September.
Read-through
Tuesday produced three large rebounds, but the fresh disclosures arrived at different times and do not support one common story.
Intel had the clearest same-session narrative. The shares posted the largest gain of the twelve after a report of another roughly 10% PC-CPU price increase. Pricing can help gross margin, but the report is not Intel guidance and says nothing by itself about unit demand.
Nebius's operating detail came after the close. The 7.73% advance cannot have been caused by comments delivered at the 18:45 ET conference appearance. Those comments matter for Wednesday: management described four recent customer wins averaging about $1bn and demand extending into the first half of 2028, while the stock is 1.18% lower premarket.
Tesla's 3.98% rise was a partial retracement, not a newly dated company update. It recovered part of Friday's 5.92% decline but still closed 2.18% below Thursday's level. The NHTSA Cybercab investigation remains the last identified company-specific shock.
Wednesday's premarket has its own company split. Meta's Muse launch is followed by a 4.32% rise, while Amazon is down 2.14% despite a strategic Qualcomm agreement whose purchase ceiling is conditional rather than committed spending. Oil above $100 and a lower QQQ prevent a clean one-catalyst reading.
Nothing material
AAPL · TSLA · PLTR · MRVL, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Four settled moves still lack a newly dated Tuesday operating catalyst
No material company event dated 8 September was found for Apple, Tesla, Palantir or Marvell in the sources reviewed. Apple's confirmed event is today, 9 September at 10:00 PT; the official notice confirms the time, not a product list. Tesla's Tuesday rise followed Friday's NHTSA investigation and recovered only part of that decline. Palantir and Marvell had no newly dated filing, result, contract or company announcement that explains their settled moves.
Event timing matters elsewhere. Nebius management spoke after Tuesday's close. Meta launched Muse late Tuesday. Nvidia's Form 4 was filed Tuesday but reports sales completed on 3-4 September. Alphabet's Finland investment announcement is dated Wednesday morning, so it belongs to premarket rather than Tuesday's close.
Evidence limits. Prices and Wednesday premarket prints come from one Twelve Data quote fetch. Every extended timestamp was checked and falls on 9 September between 04:36 and 07:05 ET. The Intel price change is a supply-chain report rather than company guidance. Amazon's $60bn figure is a maximum under a multi-generation arrangement, not a committed order. No unsupported dollar effect is assigned to any item.
Earnings within 14 days
9 SepAAPL Apple event, 10:00 PT. The official notice confirms the time, not the product list
10 SepMacro August Producer Price Index, 08:30 ET
11 SepMacro August Consumer Price Index, 08:30 ET
16 SepMacro FOMC decision after the 15-16 September meeting
by 2 OctGOOGL jointly proposed final judgment in the ad-tech case
6 OctMRVL investor day
early OctTSLA third-quarter deliveries and reported Intel CPU price change
Friday was a rate-hike repricing. US payrolls rose 162,000 in August against roughly 53,000 expected, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the two-year Treasury yield reached 4.37%. Reuters put the market-implied probability of a September increase at 58.4%, up from 49.4% Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.29%, while QQQ finished 0.18% higher.
Tesla's Cybercab event met the regulator. The NHTSA opened an investigation Friday into the Austin deployment of vehicles without steering wheels, pedals or mirrors. Tesla fell 5.92% on 154% of average volume, turning an event-day rally into a settled regulatory discount.
Today's new facts sit outside Friday's tape. Intel is 4.30% higher premarket after a report of a 10% CPU price increase; Firmus says OpenAI will anchor Malaysian AI factories using Nvidia systems; and an NTSB investigation continues after Sunday's fatal crash involving an Amazon Air-branded jet operated by 21 Air.
Market-wide
US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far above the roughly 53,000 forecast, while unemployment held at 4.1%. AP reported the two-year Treasury yield at 4.37%; Reuters put the probability of a September rate increase at 58.4%
Good economic news became a higher discount rate on FridayA stronger labour market gives the Fed more room to raise rates while inflation remains above target. A higher risk-free yield reduces the present value of profits expected years from now. That pressure was visible in Tesla, Palantir, Microsoft and Apple, although the AI-infrastructure names moved the other way without newly dated operating results.
Brent crude approached $100 on Tuesday after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. AP reported S&P 500 futures down 0.2% and Dow futures down 0.7% in early trading; the Twelve Data QQQ premarket print was nearly flat
Oil is the link between geopolitics and the rate decisionDearer oil raises near-term inflation and makes a Fed increase easier to justify. These companies are not direct oil businesses, so the relevant path is through consumer demand, logistics cost and bond yields. QQQ's flat premarket reading says the technology group is resisting the broader pressure so far, not escaping it.
The next scheduled macro tests are August PPI on Thursday 10 September and CPI on Friday 11 September, before the FOMC decision on 16 September.
The inflation releases can confirm or reverse Friday's jobs verdictFriday established that employment is strong enough for the Fed to tighten. The remaining question is whether prices require it. A softer inflation print would remove part of the rate discount; a hotter print would reinforce it.
Nebius rose 7.48% on Friday without a filing, contract or company announcement dated 4 September.
Major move · sector and positioning, not company · settled close
Close $226.39, +7.48% from $210.63 Opened -0.21%, then moved +7.71% from the open to the close Volume 14.89m shares against a 12.80m average, 116% of normal Premarket +2.48% at $232.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 24.50% below its 52-week high of $299.86 The 7.48% advance was the largest gain of the twelve It opened 0.21% lower, then gained 7.71% from the open Reports tying the move to a new Lone Pine position describe a quarterly holding disclosure, not a transaction completed on Friday
Why it mattersNebius sells compute capacity that has to be financed and built before its contracted revenue arrives. Friday's rise ran against higher Treasury yields, so it cannot be explained cleanly by the rate channel. With no newly dated contract, the safer reading is renewed demand for AI-infrastructure exposure rather than a change in Nebius's cash-flow forecast.
Already priced in?No discrete Friday fact was available to price. The close came on 116% of average volume and the shares are another 2.48% higher premarket, but the absence of a dated company event makes both moves positioning signals rather than evidence about the business.
Would flip ifA company filing shows that Friday's move followed a contract, financing or customer change that was not visible in the available sources.
Next dateThird-quarter results are expected in November; any customer announcement with contracted megawatts and dollar value would arrive sooner.
Marvell rose 7.05% on Friday with no company release dated 4 September; contemporaneous coverage connected the move to the AI-infrastructure bid after Nvidia's Hugging Face agreement.
Major move · sector read-through, not a new company release · settled close
Close $223.55, +7.05% from $208.83 Opened +1.36%, then moved +5.62% from the open to the close Volume 21.15m shares against a 24.83m average, 85% of normal Premarket +0.56% at $224.80, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 32.23% below its 52-week high of $329.88 The 7.05% advance was the second-largest gain of the twelve The acquisition read-through was already known: reports appeared on 26–27 August and Nvidia confirmed terms on 3 September Friday's rise came on 85% of average volume, so participation did not confirm a broad re-rating
Why it mattersMarvell supplies the custom silicon and connectivity that let AI clusters move data. A larger model and deployment ecosystem increases demand for that layer, even when the acquisition belongs to Nvidia. The link is indirect, however, and no Marvell revenue was attached to Friday's move.
Already priced in?This was follow-through to an older sector event, not a reaction to a Friday announcement. The shares opened 1.36% higher and added 5.62% during the session on below-average volume. Premarket is +0.56%.
Would flip ifThe 6 October investor day fails to convert the fiscal 2029 custom-silicon pipeline into customer-backed revenue targets.
Intel rose 4.51% on Friday without a newly dated company announcement, then gained another 4.30% premarket today after DigiTimes reported a planned 10% CPU price increase for early October.
Major move · company report today, settled move lacked a clear catalyst · settled close
Close $95.80, +4.51% from $91.67 Opened +0.85%, then moved +3.62% from the open to the close Volume 97.43m shares against a 81.93m average, 119% of normal Premarket +4.30% at $99.92, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 32.70% below its 52-week high of $142.35 The 4.51% Friday advance was the third-largest gain of the twelve Premarket +4.30% is the strongest premarket of the twelve Intel has the widest gap to its 52-week high of the twelve, closing 32.70% below $142.35 Dow Jones said the reported increase responds to supply-chain costs and strong demand; Intel had not commented when the report was published A separate Intel-ASML production milestone recirculating today is dated 15 July, not 7 September
Why it mattersA 10% list-price increase can lift gross profit quickly if customers accept it, which matters because foundry spending and weak manufacturing utilisation still burden Intel's margin. The trade-off is unit share: higher prices make Qualcomm and MediaTek more competitive in price-sensitive PC and embedded markets. The premarket move is a margin bet based on an unnamed-source report, not confirmed guidance.
Already priced in?Friday's 4.51% rise cannot be attributed to a report published Tuesday. Today's 4.30% premarket move is the first price reaction that can be matched to the price-hike story, and it remains provisional until the open.
Would flip ifIntel denies the reported increase, limits it to a narrow product set, or loses enough units that the margin benefit is offset.
Next dateReported early-October price change, then third-quarter results expected 22 October.
Meta rose 1.00% on Friday with no material filing, contract, result or company announcement dated 4 September.
Minor move · sector, not company · settled close
Close $616.77, +1.00% from $610.68 Opened +0.27%, then moved +0.72% from the open to the close Volume 15.94m shares against a 16.69m average, 96% of normal Premarket -1.02% at $610.48, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 22.01% below its 52-week high of $790.80 The 0.27% opening gap and 0.72% rise from the open show an orderly session rather than a single news repricing Muse Spark 1.3 was released on 2 September and was already reflected in Thursday's move
Why it mattersMeta's valuation is being set by the expected return on AI capital expenditure. Friday added no new evidence about model adoption, advertising revenue or the 2027 spending plan, so the gain reads as residual sector demand rather than a change in estimated earnings.
Already priced in?Nothing newly dated was available to price. The settled move used 96% of average volume. Premarket is -1.02% as oil and rate concerns return.
Would flip ifAn independently verified adoption or revenue figure emerges for Muse Spark before the next results call.
Next dateThird-quarter results are expected in late October.
Nvidia rose 0.84% on Friday; on 8 September, Nvidia-backed Firmus announced OpenAI as an anchor customer for two Malaysian AI factories using Nvidia's Vera Rubin systems.
Minor move · company ecosystem · settled close
Close $230.36, +0.84% from $228.45 Opened +1.16%, then moved -0.32% from the open to the close Volume 134.95m shares against a 159.26m average, 85% of normal Premarket +0.31% at $231.08, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 2.61% below its 52-week high of $236.54 Firmus said its contracted customer portfolio now exceeds 900 MW, with five sites under development over the next 24 months The release did not disclose OpenAI's contract value, the number of Nvidia systems or revenue flowing to Nvidia Nvidia closed with the smallest gap to its 52-week high of the twelve, 2.61% below $236.54
Why it mattersThe Firmus contract is evidence that demand for Rubin systems is broadening into Southeast Asia, but it is not a disclosed Nvidia order. It supports utilisation of Nvidia's platform and software ecosystem without giving enough information to change a revenue estimate.
Already priced in?The settled Friday move predates the Firmus announcement. Premarket +0.31% is the first available read and is too small to show a material re-rating.
Would flip ifFirmus names a deployment schedule or system count that is materially below the capacity implied by its 900 MW portfolio.
Next dateFirmus targets ready-for-service dates over the next 24 months; Nvidia's next quarterly update is expected in November.
An Amazon Air-branded Boeing 767 operated by 21 Air overran a runway in Miami on Sunday 6 September, killing five people on the ground and injuring five others; the NTSB investigation continued Monday.
Minor move · weekend operational event · settled close
Close $258.51, -0.15% from $258.90 Opened +0.07%, then moved -0.22% from the open to the close Volume 30.70m shares against a 32.00m average, 96% of normal Premarket -0.99% at $255.96, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 9.99% below its 52-week high of $287.20 AP reported that the aircraft travelled about 1,300 feet beyond the paved surface Amazon said it would cooperate with the investigation; no financial exposure, service disruption or liability estimate was disclosed The stock had closed 0.15% lower on Friday, before the crash, and is 0.99% lower premarket
Why it mattersThe immediate financial effect cannot be sized because the aircraft was operated by a contractor and the allocation of insurance and liability has not been disclosed. The event matters operationally if the investigation changes Amazon Air procedures or capacity, but a single aircraft does not yet change the earnings power of the retail or AWS businesses.
Already priced in?Friday's close contains none of the crash information because the event occurred Sunday. The -0.99% premarket print includes it, alongside higher oil and weaker index futures, so it is not a clean estimate of the crash alone.
Would flip ifThe NTSB identifies an Amazon-directed operating practice as causal, or Amazon discloses a material network disruption or liability.
Next dateThe NTSB said further confirmed flight-data information could be released Tuesday.
Alphabet fell 1.17% on Friday with no material company announcement dated 4 September.
Notable move · macro, not company · settled close
Close $338.46, -1.17% from $342.48 Opened -0.00%, then moved -1.17% from the open to the close Volume 23.16m shares against a 23.95m average, 97% of normal Premarket -0.73% at $336.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 17.17% below its 52-week high of $408.61 The shares traded ex-dividend for $0.22 on 4 September, equal to about 0.06% of the prior close, so the dividend explains little of the decline The ad-tech ruling was dated 2 September and was already covered in the prior edition
Why it mattersAlphabet's advertising cash flow is current, but its valuation still falls when bond yields rise because investors compare those earnings with a higher risk-free return. With no new company fact, the jobs report and the resulting rate-hike repricing are the direct explanation.
Already priced in?No fresh company news was available to price. Friday volume was 97% of average and premarket is -0.73%.
Would flip ifThe final ad-tech judgment imposes interoperability or auction rules that cut take rates materially.
Next dateJointly proposed final judgment in the ad-tech case is due by about 2 October.
Microsoft fell 2.04% on Friday with no newly dated contract, filing or product announcement.
Notable move · macro, with an older service incident · settled close
Close $499.70, -2.04% from $510.12 Opened -0.02%, then moved -2.02% from the open to the close Volume 18.07m shares against a 22.12m average, 82% of normal Premarket -0.62% at $496.60, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 9.76% below its 52-week high of $553.72 Volume was 82% of average, the lightest relative participation of the twelve Microsoft 365 and Outlook issues discussed in weekend coverage began earlier in the week and were not a new Friday event The Azure reporting change was announced on 2 September and was already reflected in Thursday trading
Why it mattersMicrosoft carries both long-duration AI expectations and a mature subscription base. Higher yields reduce the present value of the AI build-out, while a service incident matters only if it causes persistent churn or credits. No such financial effect was disclosed, leaving rates as the cleaner explanation for Friday.
Already priced in?Participation was the lightest of the twelve at 82% of average volume. That weakens the case for a company-specific repricing. Premarket is -0.62%.
Would flip ifMicrosoft reports material service credits or customer losses from the Microsoft 365 incident.
Next dateFiscal first-quarter 2027 results are expected in late October, the first report with Azure revenue in dollars on the new segment basis.
Robinhood fell 2.09% on Friday after Thursday's 16.57% rise, with no new filing or company announcement dated 4 September.
Notable move · reversal, not a new company event · settled close
Close $122.11, -2.09% from $124.72 Opened -3.40%, then moved +1.36% from the open to the close Volume 23.68m shares against a 22.14m average, 107% of normal Premarket -1.93% at $119.75, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 20.64% below its 52-week high of $153.86 The shares opened 3.40% lower and recovered 1.36% from the open Oura's IPO registration, filed on 3 September, lists Robinhood among the underwriters; the filing predates Friday's session and discloses no Robinhood fee Premarket -1.93% is the weakest premarket of the twelve
Why it mattersUnderwriting moves Robinhood into another capital-markets revenue line, but one IPO fee is unlikely to change group earnings. Friday reads as profit-taking after an unusually large Thursday move rather than a verdict on the Oura role.
Already priced in?The stock recovered part of its opening gap and traded on 107% of average volume. Today's weaker premarket print extends the reversal but remains thin.
Would flip ifRobinhood discloses that underwriting has become a repeatable, material fee business rather than a single mandate.
Next dateOura's IPO timetable and pricing have not yet produced a Robinhood fee disclosure; third-quarter results are expected in early November.
Apple fell 2.51% on Friday ahead of its 9 September event; Apple announced the event on 26 August, so the date itself was not new Friday information.
Notable move · event risk, not a new announcement · settled close
Close $319.97, -2.51% from $328.21 Opened +0.03%, then moved -2.54% from the open to the close Volume 39.55m shares against a 37.06m average, 107% of normal Premarket -0.45% at $318.54, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 7.14% below its 52-week high of $344.57 The stock opened nearly flat, then lost 2.54% from the open Apple's official invitation confirms 10:00 PT on Wednesday but does not confirm which products will appear Premarket is -0.45%
Why it mattersApple's next valuation input is the product and price mix presented Wednesday. Friday's decline raises the hurdle for the event but does not reveal whether unit demand, component cost or margins changed. The official material still confirms a time, not a product list.
Already priced in?Friday's 107% of average volume gives the decline weight, but the move came before any launch details. Rumours about a foldable phone and memory sourcing remain unconfirmed.
Would flip ifWednesday's launch shows pricing or hardware differentiation strong enough to lift expected iPhone revenue and gross margin.
Next date9 September, Apple event at 10:00 PT; fiscal fourth-quarter results expected 29 October.
Palantir fell 4.49% on Friday with no company announcement dated 4 September, reversing part of Thursday's rally on the expanded PwC alliance.
Major move · reversal, not company · settled close
Close $174.33, -4.49% from $182.53 Opened -1.38%, then moved -3.16% from the open to the close Volume 27.90m shares against a 30.98m average, 90% of normal Premarket -0.00% at $174.33, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 15.99% below its 52-week high of $207.52 The stock opened 1.38% lower and then fell a further 3.16% from the open The PwC announcement is dated 3 September and disclosed no contract value or revenue share Premarket is effectively flat at -0.00%
Why it mattersPalantir's multiple depends on growth continuing without delivery costs rising at the same pace. The PwC alliance supports that thesis, but the lack of a disclosed customer or contract value leaves investors with no near-term revenue to model. Friday removed part of the announcement premium as rates moved against long-duration software.
Already priced in?Friday volume was 90% of average, so the reversal did not carry unusually broad participation. The flat premarket print leaves Friday's close as the settled verdict.
Would flip ifPwC and Palantir name a joint customer and disclose a contract value large enough to appear in quarterly revenue.
Next dateThird-quarter results are expected in early November.
Tesla fell 5.92% on Friday after the NHTSA opened an investigation into whether steering-wheel-free Cybercabs deployed in Austin comply with federal safety rules.
Major move · regulatory and company · settled close
Close $354.08, -5.92% from $376.37 Opened -3.80%, then moved -2.21% from the open to the close Volume 64.83m shares against a 42.10m average, 154% of normal Premarket +0.26% at $355.00, a provisional extended-hours print Closed 29.02% below its 52-week high of $498.83 The 5.92% decline was the largest fall of the twelve Volume reached 154% of average, the heaviest relative participation of the twelve The shares opened 3.80% lower and lost another 2.21% from the open AP reported that the vehicles lack steering wheels, pedals and mirrors; Tesla began offering rides after Thursday evening's invitation-only launch Premarket is +0.26%
Why it mattersThe Cybercab value case requires both low hardware cost and permission to carry paying passengers. Removing manual controls lowers the vehicle cost while making federal compliance harder. The investigation therefore goes directly to the probability and timing of robotaxi revenue, rather than to a cosmetic feature of the launch.
Already priced in?Friday was the first settled reaction to Thursday evening's event and the regulator's response. The combination of a gap lower, further selling during the session and heavy volume makes it a firmer verdict than Thursday's pre-event rise. Premarket is slightly positive.
Would flip ifNHTSA confirms the Austin vehicles can operate under an exemption or existing certification without limiting the commercial rollout.
Next dateAny NHTSA action on the Austin service, then third-quarter deliveries in early October and results on 21 October.
Read-through
Friday split the list between a broad rate shock and three AI-infrastructure rallies that did not come with new operating data.
The macro explanation is strong for the decliners. Payrolls beat expectations by more than threefold, the two-year yield rose, and Tesla added a company-specific NHTSA investigation. Palantir, Microsoft, Robinhood and Apple also fell without newly dated operating news.
Nebius, Marvell and Intel require more caution. Their Friday advances ran against the rate move. Nebius had no new contract, Marvell coverage leaned on Nvidia's already dated Hugging Face deal, and Intel's 10% price-hike report arrived Tuesday rather than Friday. Their prices are real; a single Friday business catalyst is not.
Tuesday's extended session contains three fresh reads. Intel's reported price increase supports margin but is unconfirmed. Firmus's OpenAI contract uses Nvidia's platform but gives no Nvidia order value. Amazon's premarket decline includes a fatal contractor-operated cargo crash and the wider oil sell-off, so it cannot isolate the liability investors expect.
Apple is now an event-risk position. Wednesday's presentation is confirmed for 10:00 PT, but the product list remains rumour. Friday's decline sets a lower starting price; it does not lower the revenue hurdle the launch must clear.
Nothing material
AAPL · PLTR · MSFT · GOOGL · HOOD · META · NBIS · MRVL, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what was dated earlier, and what is still unconfirmed
No newly dated Friday company event was found. Apple, Palantir, Microsoft, Alphabet, Robinhood, Meta, Nebius and Marvell had no material filing, result, contract or company announcement dated 4 September in the sources reviewed.
Fresh since Friday. The NTSB investigation concerns the Amazon Air-branded crash on 6 September; AP says the aircraft was operated by 21 Air. Firmus announced its OpenAI partnership on 8 September and said the Malaysian sites will use Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. DigiTimes reported Intel's planned price increase on 8 September; Dow Jones said Intel had not commented. These belong to premarket, not Friday's settled closes.
Excluded as old or recycled. Apple's event was announced on 26 August. Oura's registration statement listing Robinhood among its underwriters was filed on 3 September. The Microsoft Azure disclosure, Palantir-PwC alliance, Google ad-tech ruling, Meta model release and Nvidia confirmation of the Hugging Face agreement were dated 2–3 September and were covered previously. The Intel-ASML High NA EUV production milestone being recirculated this morning is dated 15 July on ASML's own release.
Evidence limits. Friday prices and Tuesday premarket prints come from one Twelve Data quote fetch. All extended timestamps were checked and fall on 8 September between 04:24 and 07:38 ET. The Intel price increase is an unnamed-source report, not company guidance. The Firmus release discloses capacity but no Nvidia system count or contract value. The Amazon investigation has not allocated liability. No unsupported dollar effect is assigned to any of them.
Earnings within 14 days
9 SepAAPL Apple event, 10:00 PT. The official invitation confirms the time, not the product list
10 SepMacro August Producer Price Index, 08:30 ET
11 SepMacro August Consumer Price Index, 08:30 ET
16 SepMacro FOMC decision after the 15–16 September meeting
by 2 OctGOOGL jointly proposed final judgment in the ad-tech case
6 OctMRVL investor day
early OctTSLA third-quarter deliveries and reported Intel CPU price change
All twelve rose, and the reason was the Fed rather than any of them. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he would support holding the policy rate steady if inflation keeps easing toward 2%. Market-implied odds of a September rate hike fell from about 63% to about 50%, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.74% from 4.81% earlier in the week. QQQ rose 1.19%. Oil kept climbing anyway, Brent above $96, so this was the rate channel beating the oil channel, not oil relief.
Robinhood rose 16.57% on no company announcement. Two brokerages published work on its prediction-markets business and the stock gained $17.73 a share on 207% of average volume, the heaviest relative participation of the twelve. The underlying number is not new: event-contract revenue of $156m in the second quarter, reported on 29 July, more than 10x a year earlier and ahead of crypto revenue for the first time.
Three real corporate events, all bunched into Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Nvidia confirmed a $12.9bn agreement to buy Hugging Face. Microsoft said it will publish Azure revenue in dollars every quarter from this autumn, ending a decade of percentages. PwC and Palantir expanded their alliance, and Palantir rose 7.71%. Tesla rose 5.42%before its Cybercab event, which ran after the close; it is down 2.02% premarket.
Market-wide
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he is willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level if there is continued progress toward the 2% inflation goal. Market-implied odds of a September rate hike fell from roughly 63% on Wednesday to roughly 50%. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.74%, from 4.81% earlier in the week, which was its highest since October 2023
The argument this week was about a rate rise, not a cut, and that is why the relief was so broadChair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and the oil spike had left the market pricing a coin-flip chance of the Fed tightening again in September. A rate rise raises the yield on safe money, which is the rate at which profits expected years from now get discounted back. Waller taking a hike off the table by half removes that deduction. It is worth most to the companies whose earnings arrive latest, and least to those earning today, which is exactly the shape of Thursday's ranking: Robinhood, Palantir, Tesla and Nebius at the top, Apple at the bottom.
Initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 206,000 for the week, slightly above the roughly 205,000 economists expected. The August employment report lands this morning at 08:30 ET, with consensus around 53,000 new jobs and unemployment holding at 4.1%
A soft labour market is now good news for these stocks, which is a reversal from earlier in the yearWhen the risk was recession, weak jobs data hurt the companies that sell to consumers and to corporate IT budgets. With the Fed debating a rise, weak jobs data instead argues against tightening. Claims at 206,000 are historically low and describe a market where firms neither hire nor fire much. That is soft enough to support Waller's case and not soft enough to threaten the advertising and consumer spending that Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Apple live on.
Brent crude rose again on Thursday, trading above $96, after the strikes around the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week. QQQ rose 1.19% regardless, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% to 26,584.06
The gauge and the oil price point opposite ways, and the gauge is the one to followOn Tuesday the same oil move knocked ten of the twelve lower, because dearer crude lifts expected inflation and therefore long yields. On Thursday the yield fell anyway, because Waller outweighed the barrel. Oil only ever reached these companies through the bond market, none of them being a large energy buyer. When the bond market stops listening to oil, the oil price stops mattering to them. Watch the 10-year, not Brent.
Robinhood rose 16.57% with no filing, contract or company announcement dated 3 September, after two brokerages published work on its prediction-markets business.
Major move · analyst work, not company · settled close
Close $124.72, up 16.57% from $106.99, the largest gain of the twelve Volume 51.38m shares against a 24.80m average, 207% of normal and the heaviest relative participation of the twelve Opened 6.37% higher and then rose a further 9.60% from there, so most of the day was made after the open rather than at it Deutsche Bank's Brian Bedell argued contracts on companies' own KPIs could become the largest category in the business, and put US company-KPI contract volume above $1 trillion by 2028 Piper Sandler's Patrick Moley kept a $145 target and pointed to the NFL and NCAA football seasons after strong engagement around the 2026 World Cup The company figure underneath is from results dated 29 July: event-contract revenue $156m in the second quarter, more than 10x a year earlier, on a record 13.6bn contracts, and ahead of crypto revenue for the first time Total second-quarter net revenue was $1.31bn, up 32%, so event contracts were about 12% of the company Closed 18.94% below its 52-week high of $153.86
Why it mattersRobinhood has been priced as a geared bet on retail trading volume, and investors pay little per dollar of earnings for revenue that swings with the market. Prediction markets are a different kind of revenue: exchange economics, driven by sporting and political calendars rather than by share prices, so it does not fall when equity volumes fall. Revenue that is uncorrelated and repeatable carries a much higher multiple than revenue that is cyclical. Thursday was investors starting to underwrite a 2028 revenue line that does not exist yet, which is why the move dwarfs anything in the current quarter.
Already priced in?The opposite: it moved far more than the facts did. Settled close, not a premarket read. Nothing about Robinhood changed on Thursday. The $156m quarter was reported on 29 July and the shares fell 1.24% on Tuesday. What the gap and the drift say is which kind of buying this was: a 6.37% gap on the analyst work, then a further 9.60% built through the session, on 207% of average volume. That is momentum joining a re-rating, not a reaction to a fact. Premarket is -1.15%, thin and provisional, and the open will settle whether Thursday holds.
Would flip ifThe CFTC advances its proposal to restrict event contracts. Every dollar of this re-rating assumes the category stays legal at US scale, and that is a regulatory decision rather than a product one. Robinhood has already filed against the proposal.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected in early November, the first quarter to carry a full football season of event-contract volume.
PwC US and Palantir announced on 3 September that they are expanding their strategic alliance, initially across enterprise AI, mergers and acquisitions, and ERP modernisation.
Major move · company · settled close
Close $182.53, up 7.71% from $169.46, the second-largest gain of the twelve Volume 38.01m shares against a 32.29m average, 118% of normal Opened 1.71% higher and then rose 5.91% from there, so the session, not the gap, carried it The centrepiece is an AI-native deals platform PwC and Palantir say executes transactions up to 50% faster and cuts one-time costs by up to 45%. No contract value or revenue-share was disclosed This recovers Wednesday's fall. Palantir closed at $179.92 on Tuesday and $169.46 on Wednesday, a 5.81% drop, so Thursday's close is still 1.45% above where it stood on Tuesday Closed 12.04% below its 52-week high of $207.52
Why it mattersPalantir's constraint has never been demand, it is the cost of delivery: every deployment needs its own engineers, so revenue growth has always dragged headcount and services cost along with it. A Big Four firm doing the implementation work changes the shape of the business, not the size of one contract. It converts Palantir toward selling a platform that someone else installs, which is the difference between a consultancy that scales linearly and software that does not. That is a gross-margin argument and a sales-reach argument at once, and it is the thing that would justify what investors already pay per dollar of Palantir's earnings.
Already priced in?Priced as a reversal rather than as news, which is the tell. Settled close. The stock had fallen 5.81% on Wednesday on a widely circulated bear case, and Thursday's 7.71% only just clears that. Investors bought a partnership with no disclosed dollar value, which means they were buying relief from the Wednesday argument as much as the alliance. Premarket -0.64%, thin and provisional. Note reports differ on the close: some quote $183.03 and 8.01% against this feed's $182.53 and 7.71%, from the same $169.46 prior close.
Would flip ifThe alliance produces no named customer with a contract value by the third-quarter call. Announcements of this shape are cheap to make. Until a jointly delivered deployment shows up in revenue, it is a press release.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected in early November.
Tesla unveiled the production Cybercab at an invitation-only event in Austin on the evening of 3 September, after the market had closed.
Major move · the move came BEFORE the event · settled close
Close $376.36, up 5.42% from $357.01, the third-largest gain of the twelve Volume 62.84m shares against a 41.46m average, 152% of normal The entire 5.42% was made before the event: a 2.49% gap at the open and 2.86% more during the session, all of it in regular trading hours Cybercab is a two-seat robotaxi with no steering wheel, no pedals and no mirrors, at a $25,000 starting price and a stated 418 mile range. Production began at Gigafactory Texas in the first half of 2026 The NHTSA said it is in contact with Tesla and is evaluating the Texas rollout, because federal safety standards normally require controls the Cybercab does not have Tesla did not livestream the event publicly, which drew complaints from retail holders Premarket -2.02%, the weakest premarket of the twelve Closed 24.55% below its 52-week high of $498.83
Why it mattersTesla's share price stopped being a car multiple some time ago. What investors are paying for is the option that a fleet of driverless vehicles earns fare revenue at software margins with no driver to pay. The two numbers that decide whether that option is worth anything are how many cars are actually carrying paying passengers, and whether a regulator lets them. A vehicle with no steering wheel is the cheapest possible robotaxi to build and the hardest one to get approved, so the NHTSA's evaluation is the live variable, not the unveiling.
Already priced in?This is the one to be careful about. The 5.42% happened before the event and is not a reaction to it. It is a bet placed into the event, on top of an 18% rise during August. The event's own verdict is the premarket, and that is -2.02%, the weakest of the twelve, after the NHTSA comment and the absence of a public livestream. Premarket is thin and reverses often, so treat this as provisional. The open settles it.
Would flip ifPaying passengers ride Cybercabs in Austin within a few weeks. A demonstration without deployment is what the sceptics expected; cars carrying fares is the only thing that converts the option into revenue.
Next dateThird-quarter deliveries in early October, then third-quarter results on 21 October. Any NHTSA action on the Texas rollout is the nearer trigger.
Nebius rose 3.20% with no filing, contract or announcement dated 3 September beyond a routine director Form 4 disclosing 5,885 shares after an RSU grant.
Major move · sector, not company · settled close
Close $210.63, up 3.20% from $204.09 Volume 10.64m shares against a 13.33m average, 80% of normal, so this was a small crowd Opened 0.64% lower and rose 3.87% from there, the third-largest recovery from the open of the twelve Closed 29.76% below its 52-week high of $299.86 Its $5.75bn convertible raise, widely recirculated in coverage on 4 September, closed on 24 August and is not new
Why it mattersThis is the rate trade in its purest form. Nebius sells AI compute it has not built yet, funded with convertible debt, against contracts that pay out over years. Almost all of its value sits in cash flows a long way out, so what moves it is not demand for GPUs but the rate at which 2029 cash gets valued today. Waller shaving the odds of a rate rise is worth far more to Nebius than to a company earning its money today, and Thursday's ranking sorted almost exactly that way.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price. Settled close on 80% of average volume, the second-lightest participation of the twelve, which is what a sector move without a company event looks like. Do not read this as anything about Nebius. It is up 1.85% premarket, thin and provisional.
Would flip ifThe August jobs report at 08:30 ET today comes in hot and puts the September hike back on the table. The same leverage that lifted Nebius on Thursday works in reverse and works fastest here.
Next dateThe August employment report today at 08:30 ET, then the FOMC decision on 16 September.
Meta released Muse Spark 1.3, its new AI model, late on Wednesday 2 September, claiming gains in coding and in agentic tasks.
Major move · company · settled close
Close $610.68, up 3.01% from $592.85 Volume 19.69m shares against a 16.47m average, 120% of normal, the third-heaviest relative participation of the twelve Opened 1.96% higher and added 1.02% during the session, so the news was mostly in the gap Benchmark scores put it alongside leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic, on the company's own account. Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang framed it as groundwork for personal AI assistants Closed 22.78% below its 52-week high of $790.80, further below its high than any of the twelve except Marvell, Intel, Nebius and Tesla Its $17.1bn multistate teen-safety settlement, still circulating in coverage, was approved on 26 August and is not new
Why it mattersMeta has spent two years asking investors to fund capital expenditure on AI without showing a model that competes at the frontier, and the share price carries the doubt: it sits further below its high than any of the twelve except Tesla, Nebius, Intel and Marvell. A credible frontier model does not add revenue next quarter. What it changes is whether the capex is an asset or a write-off, and therefore whether investors keep applying a discount to Meta's earnings for money they think is being wasted. That discount, not advertising growth, is the swing factor in the multiple.
Already priced in?Largely priced on Thursday, and the shape says so. Settled close, then a flat after-hours print at -0.01% stamped 16:12 ET. Nearly two-thirds of the move was the opening gap, which is what a Wednesday-evening release should produce. There is no premarket read for Meta this morning: the feed's most recent extended print is from Thursday's close, not this morning.
Would flip ifIndependent evaluations fail to reproduce the benchmark claims. Meta has published strong internal scores before that outside testers could not match, and the credibility of the capex case rests on this one holding up.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected in late October, where the 2027 capital expenditure guide is the number that matters.
Microsoft said on Wednesday 2 September that it will report Azure revenue in dollars every quarter and will cut its operating segments from three to two.
Notable move · company · settled close
Close $510.12, up 2.68% from $496.82, on 107% of average volume Opened 1.07% higher and added 1.59% during the session On the restated basis, Azure revenue was $29.42bn in the June quarter, up 42% year on year, and about 33% of total company revenue The narrower Azure definition excludes GitHub cloud, developer cloud services, Security Copilot, and healthcare and life-sciences cloud Intelligent Cloud and Productivity and Business Processes merge into Agents and Infra; More Personal Computing becomes Devices and Consumer. The change takes effect in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, this autumn Guidance on the new basis: Agents and Infra $75.15bn to $75.75bn, Devices and Consumer $14.7bn to $15.2bn Closed 7.87% below its 52-week high of $553.72, the third-smallest gap to its high of the twelve The $678bn backlog and Azure passing $100bn for the year, both recirculating this week, came with results on 29 July and are not new
Why it mattersFor more than a decade Microsoft gave a growth percentage for Azure and no dollars, so nobody outside could tell how big it actually was or what it earned. That opacity has a price: investors apply a discount when they cannot separate the fast-growing business from the slow one bundled with it. Putting a dollar figure on Azure lets the market value it against AWS and Google Cloud directly, at cloud multiples rather than at a blended Microsoft multiple. Nothing about the business changed on Wednesday. What changed is how much of it investors can see, and visibility is worth a re-rating on its own.
Already priced in?Priced on Thursday, a day after the announcement. Settled close. Microsoft actually fell 0.84% on Wednesday, when the news landed, and rose 2.68% on Thursday once it had been read. A 1.07% gap and 1.59% more intraday is a market working through a disclosure change rather than reacting to a headline. The after-hours print is -0.08% and stamped 17:43 ET Thursday, so there is no premarket read for Microsoft this morning.
Would flip ifThe restated Azure line grows more slowly than the old one implied. A narrower definition can flatter or deflate the growth rate, and the first reported quarter on the new basis is the first chance to check.
Next dateFirst-quarter fiscal 2027 results in late October, the first on the two-segment basis with a dollar Azure figure.
Nvidia confirmed on 3 September that it will acquire Hugging Face, the open-model hosting platform, for about $12.9bn. The definitive agreement is dated 2 September.
Notable move · company · settled close
Close $228.45, up 1.80% from $224.41, on 86% of average volume Deal terms: about $11.9bn payable to Hugging Face stockholders, subject to adjustment, plus an equity retention pool of up to about $1.0bn for employees joining Nvidia Against Hugging Face's $4.5bn valuation at its $235m round in 2023, that is roughly 2.9x in three years Hugging Face hosts about 3m models, 1m applications and 500,000 datasets, used by more than 18m developers Expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to regulatory approval. Jensen Huang said Hugging Face stays open and that Nvidia compute will not be required to build or deploy there Closed 3.42% below its 52-week high of $236.54, the smallest gap to its high of the twelve
Why it mattersNvidia's risk has never been this year's orders, it is that its customers design their way off its chips. Hugging Face is where open models are published and pulled, so whoever runs it sits at the point where a developer picks the hardware their model will run on by default. Buying the distribution layer is a defence of pricing power, not an addition to revenue: $12.9bn is under a fortnight of Nvidia's sales. The commitment to stay hardware-neutral is the price of not driving developers away, and it is also what makes regulatory approval plausible.
Already priced in?Almost entirely, which is why a deal this size moved the stock less than 2%. Settled close on 86% of average volume, below-average participation for a confirmed acquisition. Reports of the talks appeared on 26 and 27 August, so Thursday only added the terms and the certainty. Premarket +1.25%, thin and provisional.
Would flip ifAntitrust review blocks or conditions the deal. A chip monopolist buying the neutral catalogue of models that run on chips is the shape of case regulators take, and the deal does not close until 2027.
Next dateThird-quarter fiscal 2027 results expected in mid-November. Regulatory filings on the acquisition come first.
Intel rose 1.80% with no filing, contract or announcement dated 3 September, on the same semiconductor and rate-relief bid that lifted the group.
Notable move · sector, not company · settled close
Close $91.67, up 1.80% from $90.05, on 98% of average volume Opened 0.78% lower and rose 2.60% from there, so the whole move was made after the open Now 3.55% below the $95 price of its $20bn equity offering, which priced on 10 August, against 6.35% below it on Tuesday Closed 35.60% below its 52-week high of $142.35, the second-widest gap to its high of the twelve
Why it mattersIntel is the one name here where the discount rate barely matters, because almost nothing in the price is a bet on profits far in the future. What sets the price is the August equity offering: buyers at $95 are still underwater, and that unsold stock hangs over the shares until it clears. Every dollar closer to $95 shrinks that overhang, which is why Intel trades on its distance from the offering price rather than on the macro.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price. Settled close, ordinary volume at 98% of average. Read it as sector, not company. Premarket +1.56%, thin and provisional.
Would flip ifA named external foundry customer signs with a dollar value attached. That is still the single thing that would revalue Intel Foundry, and it has not happened.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected 22 October.
Judge Leonie Brinkema ruled on 2 September that Google need not sell its AdX ad exchange, imposing behavioural remedies instead. Google shipped Gemini 3.8 Flash the same day.
Notable move · company, dated Wednesday · settled close
Close $342.48, up 1.59% from $337.12, on 87% of average volume The court rejected divestiture of AdX, rejected open-sourcing the DFP final auction logic, and rejected the contingent divestiture of DFP Remainder Remedies instead require interoperability, including opening real-time bidding on AdX to rival ad servers. Both sides must file a jointly proposed final judgment within 30 days, and the full opinion stays sealed for 14 days for redaction requests Gemini 3.8 Flash is the third Flash release in six weeks, priced unchanged at $0.75 per million input tokens and $3.75 per million output tokens. Both prices double on 1 January 2027 A security variant, Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, is limited to Google's new Fairwind Program for government and critical-infrastructure users Closed 16.18% below its 52-week high of $408.61
Why it mattersAd tech is roughly a tenth of Alphabet's revenue, so a forced sale of AdX would have cost less in earnings than in precedent. What the market has been discounting is the tail risk that a court breaks the company up, and this is the second time in about a year that a judge has declined to. Behavioural remedies leave the business intact and merely constrain how the auction runs. Removing a structural risk does not raise next year's profits by a cent; it raises what investors will pay for those profits, because the range of bad outcomes just narrowed.
Already priced in?Split across two sessions, which understates it. Settled close. The ruling landed on Wednesday, when Alphabet rose only 0.62%, and the larger 1.59% came on Thursday alongside the market. Volume at 87% of average is below normal, so this was not a crowd repricing a legal outcome. That is a modest reaction for a breakup risk being lifted, and it may say the market had already assumed Google would win. Premarket +0.39%, thin and provisional.
Would flip ifThe sealed opinion, or the joint final judgment due within 30 days, contains interoperability requirements that materially cut AdX take rates. The remedies are not yet specified in public.
Next dateJointly proposed final judgment within 30 days, so by about 2 October. Third-quarter results expected late October.
Amazon rose 1.54% with no filing or announcement dated 3 September, while AWS took a partial outage and reported disruption at a Bahrain facility.
Notable move · sector, not company · settled close
Close $258.90, up 1.54% from $254.98, on 83% of average volume, the third-lightest participation of the twelve Opened 0.53% higher and added 1.01% during the session Down Detector user reports pointed to AWS problems in the US during Thursday's session, coinciding with outages at several large AI services. Separately, Iranian strikes were reported to have caused temporary disruption at an AWS facility in Bahrain Neither event drew an Amazon filing or a service-credit disclosure, and neither is sized Closed 9.85% below its 52-week high of $287.20, the smallest gap to its high of the twelve after Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft
Why it mattersThe interesting thing about Thursday is what the market ignored. An AWS outage and a physical strike on a data-centre region are precisely the risks that should trouble a business whose customers pay for availability, and the stock rose anyway. That tells you investors treat regional outages as noise against a cloud business growing revenue at 37%, and that Amazon is currently being traded as a rates-and-capex story rather than an operations one. Microsoft's Azure disclosure matters here too: once Azure is reported in dollars, AWS growth gets compared line against line every quarter.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price, and the outage was not priced at all. Settled close on 83% of average volume. This is a sector move. Premarket +0.62%, thin and provisional.
Would flip ifThe Bahrain disruption proves more than temporary. A cloud region taken offline by military action is a new category of risk for AWS pricing and for where customers agree to put workloads.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected late October. The $220bn 2026 capital expenditure figure set in July is the number to watch.
Marvell rose 1.14% with nothing dated 3 September, after opening lower on Broadcom's results and recovering through the session.
Notable move · sector, and a recovery from Broadcom · settled close
Close $208.83, up 1.14% from $206.48, the second-smallest gain of the twelve Volume 18.71m shares against a 25.26m average, 74% of normal, the lightest relative participation of the twelve Opened 1.15% lower, the worst opening gap of the twelve, then rose 2.31% from there Broadcom fell about 6% on Thursday on soft guidance, despite AI revenue up 221%. Marvell finished higher on the same day Closed 36.70% below its 52-week high of $329.88, the widest gap to its high of the twelve Its second-quarter results, record revenue of $2.739bn up 37%, and the raised fiscal 2027 and 2028 outlook, are dated 27 August and are not new Premarket +2.45%, the strongest premarket of the twelve
Why it mattersBroadcom and Marvell both sell custom AI silicon, so a weak guide from the larger one normally drags the smaller one with it. Thursday broke that link, and the reason is what each guide contains. Broadcom's disappointment was about the pace of its existing programmes; Marvell's own raised outlook, a week old, points at fiscal 2028 and 2029 revenue that has not been booked yet. When the rate on future money falls, the company whose revenue is further out benefits more, and that was enough to offset a bad read-across. Same industry, opposite treatment, and the difference is entirely timing.
Already priced in?Half-priced, and the intraday path is the evidence. Settled close. Marvell opened 1.15% lower on the Broadcom read-across, the worst gap of the twelve, then climbed 2.31% to finish up. That is the market rejecting the comparison over the course of a session. Volume was the lightest of the twelve at 74% of average, so conviction was low. Premarket +2.45% is the strongest of the twelve and is thin and provisional.
Would flip ifThe 6 October investor day fails to size the fiscal 2029 custom-silicon opportunity in dollars. The stock sits further below its high than any of the twelve precisely because that number is still a promise.
Next date6 October, investor day. Third-quarter results expected in early December.
Apple rose 1.00% with no filing or announcement dated 3 September, the smallest gain of the twelve.
Notable move · sector, not company · settled close
Close $328.21, up 1.00% from $324.96, on 98% of average volume Opened flat, within a cent of Tuesday's close, then rose 1.00% during the session Closed 4.75% below its 52-week high of $344.57, the second-smallest gap to its high of the twelve A £2bn UK class action over App Tracking Transparency was reported on 3 September. The claim is not new litigation filed that day and Apple has not filed on it Omdia reported that Apple has dropped plans for two MacBook models. Apple has not confirmed this
Why it mattersApple is the shortest-duration story on this list: its cash arrives now, from products already selling, so a change in the discount rate barely touches it. That is why Thursday's rate news did so little for Apple, and why the same insulation helped it when yields were climbing on Tuesday. What actually moves Apple is the product cycle, and the next reading on that arrives in five days.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price. Settled close, ordinary volume. Apple opened flat when eight of the twelve gapped higher, which is what a stock unaffected by the rate news looks like. Premarket -0.72%, thin and provisional.
Would flip ifThe 9 September launch disappoints. The multiple carries both a product cycle and a leadership premium from the Ternus succession, and a weak reception undercuts both at once.
Next date9 September, launch event, 10:00 PT. Fiscal fourth-quarter results expected 29 October.
Read-through
A rate day dressed as a news day. The events were real; the ranking was set by the bond market.
Read Thursday by duration and it sorts itself. All twelve rose, and the order is almost exactly how far out each company's cash sits. Robinhood, Palantir, Tesla and Nebius, the four longest-dated stories, took the four largest gains. Apple and Marvell, one earning today and one waiting on a fiscal 2029 promise, took the two smallest. Waller did more work than any of the announcements did.
The asymmetry worth keeping is Marvell against Broadcom. Broadcom fell about 6% on soft guidance while its AI revenue grew 221%. Marvell, the obvious read-across, opened 1.15% lower, the worst gap of the twelve, then climbed 2.31% to finish up 1.14%. The market decided within a session that a disappointing guide about programmes already running says nothing about programmes that start in 2028. Whether that holds is the entire question at Marvell's 6 October investor day.
Microsoft's disclosure change reaches Amazon and Alphabet. Once Azure is reported in dollars each quarter, AWS and Google Cloud get measured against a hard number rather than against a growth percentage. That helps whichever of the three is being under-credited and hurts the other two. Amazon's AWS grew 37% in the June quarter against Azure's restated 42%, so the comparison starts unfavourably for Amazon.
Nvidia's purchase is a read-through for everyone who buys chips. Hugging Face is where open models get published and pulled, and Nvidia has promised to keep it hardware-neutral. If that promise holds, nothing changes for Microsoft, Amazon, Meta or Intel. If it erodes, the default path from an open model to a running model runs through Nvidia silicon, and every alternative accelerator gets harder to adopt. That is worth watching more closely than the $12.9bn, which is under a fortnight of Nvidia's sales.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · HOOD · INTC · NBIS · MRVL, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and the gaps in this edition
Nothing material. Six of the twelve had no material filing, contract, result or announcement dated 3 September: Apple, Amazon, Robinhood, Intel, Nebius and Marvell. Robinhood is the striking one, because it moved 16.57% anyway. Nebius's only filing was a director's Form 4 disclosing 5,885 shares after an RSU grant, which is routine vesting and not a signal.
Excluded as old. Marvell's second-quarter results and its raised fiscal 2027 and 2028 outlook are dated 27 August. Nebius's $5.75bn convertible offering priced on 19 August and closed on 24 August. Meta's $17.1bn multistate teen-safety settlement was approved on 26 August. Microsoft's $678bn commercial backlog, up 84%, and Azure passing $100bn for fiscal 2026 came with results on 29 July. Robinhood's $156m event-contract quarter is from results on 29 July. Intel's $20bn equity offering priced on 10 August at $95. Amazon's $220bn 2026 capital expenditure figure is from 30 July. First reports that Nvidia was buying Hugging Face appeared on 26 and 27 August; only the confirmation and the terms are new. All of these recirculated in coverage over the past 24 hours. None of them happened in it.
Dated Wednesday, not Thursday. Three of the items written up here landed on 2 September and were priced on Thursday: the Google ad-tech ruling, Microsoft's segment and Azure disclosure change, and Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 release. Each block says so. Nvidia's definitive agreement is dated 2 September and was confirmed publicly on 3 September.
Not treated as news. Omdia's report that Apple has scrapped two MacBook models is a research-firm claim with no company confirmation. Reports that Nvidia-backed Thinking Machines is in talks at a $40bn valuation are unconfirmed. The £2bn UK App Tracking Transparency class action against Apple surfaced in coverage on 3 September but is not new litigation filed that day.
Earnings. None of the twelve reports within fourteen days. The next scheduled results are Tesla on 21 October and Intel on 22 October.
Gaps in this edition. There is no edition dated 3 September in this archive, so the 2 September session was never written up. That matters here, because several of Thursday's drivers were dated Wednesday and their first-day price effect is not recorded anywhere on this page. The extended-hours feed carried genuine premarket prints for ten of the twelve this morning, stamped between 04:54 and 07:01 ET on 4 September. Microsoft and Meta carry Thursday evening prints instead, stamped 17:43 and 16:12 ET on 3 September, so those two are recorded as after-hours and their premarket is null. Intraday charts for AMZN, GOOGL, META, NBIS, NVDA and PLTR redrew from cache because the intraday fetch was throttled; all twelve daily series are current to 3 September, so nothing on this page silently omits a session. sec.gov is blocked from this environment, so Nvidia's 8-K, Microsoft's 8-K and Nebius's Form 4 are attributed to coverage of them rather than read directly. Reports differ on Palantir's close, quoting $183.03 and 8.01% against this feed's $182.53 and 7.71%; the feed figure is used throughout and both agree on the $169.46 prior close.
Earnings within 14 days
4 SepMacro August employment report, 08:30 ET. Consensus about 53,000 jobs, unemployment 4.1%. The last jobs print before the FOMC
9 SepAAPL launch event, 10:00 PT. Ternus's first as chief executive
11 SepMacro August CPI. The other half of the case Waller made on Thursday
16 SepMacro FOMC decision, meeting 15 to 16 September. The market now splits about evenly on a hike
by 2 OctGOOGL jointly proposed final judgment in the ad-tech case, due within 30 days of the 2 September ruling
6 OctMRVL investor day. Sizing fiscal 2029 custom silicon in dollars is the question
early OctTSLA third-quarter deliveries, and the first read on whether Cybercabs carry paying passengers in Austin
21 OctTSLA third-quarter results
22 OctINTC third-quarter results expected
late OctMSFT first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, the first with Azure reported in dollars on the two-segment basis
29 OctAAPL fiscal fourth-quarter results expected
H1 2027NVDA Hugging Face acquisition expected to close, subject to regulatory approval
Apple changed chief executive and disclosed what it costs. John Ternus took over on Tuesday and Apple filed an amended 8-K the same day: salary $3m, a fiscal 2027 equity award targeted at $55m, and 75% of that equity vesting on Apple's total shareholder return against the rest of the S&P 500. Apple closed +2.61%, the largest gain of the twelve, on the heaviest volume relative to its own average, 132%.
Everything else was priced by oil and bonds. US strikes around the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent up about 4.6% to near $95, and the US 10-year yield rose to roughly 4.79%, a twenty-month high. Ten of the twelve fell. The three largest falls, Palantir -3.47%, Nebius -3.29% and Tesla -3.22%, had no filing or announcement dated 1 September between them.
The shock arrived at the open and then half of it was bought back. Ten of the twelve opened below Monday's close. Apple and Robinhood did not. Meta opened 2.54% below Monday's close and finished 1.08% above it. Premarket now, all twelve are down, Marvell the weakest premarket of the twelve at -3.03%. That is thin and provisional. ADP payrolls at 08:15 ET and the Beige Book are today's tests.
Market-wide
US forces struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets around the Strait of Hormuz, after two oil tankers were hit on Monday night and after reported attempts to mine the strait. Brent rose about 4.6% to roughly $94.65, its highest since late July. WTI rose about 5.2% to $90.22, its first close above $90 in over a month
Oil reaches these twelve through the discount rate, not through their costsNone of these companies is an energy buyer of any size. The channel is the bond market. Dearer crude lifts expected inflation, expected inflation lifts long yields, and a higher long yield cuts the present value of profits expected years from now. That deduction is far larger for a company whose earnings arrive in the 2030s than for one earning today. The ranking shows it. The three that fell hardest are the three longest-dated stories on the list. Nvidia collects its money now, and it lost less than half as much.
The bond move was global, not American. The US 10-year rose about 3 basis points to roughly 4.79%, a twenty-month high, and the 30-year to about 5.33%, the highest since 2002. Japan's 10-year reached 3% for the first time since 1996. The UK 10-year rose 10 basis points to 5.25%, its highest since June 2008. Reports differ on the US 10-year, quoting 4.75% to 4.79%
A worldwide rise in long yields is harder to fade than an American oneWhen only Treasury yields move, the argument is about the Fed and can reverse on a single data print. When Japanese and British long yields move with them, the repricing is about the cost of government borrowing everywhere, and that unwinds slowly. Japan is the part that reaches these stocks: its institutions have long funded purchases of foreign assets, and a 3% yield at home gives them a reason to keep the money there.
QQQ closed at 707.64, down 1.27%, and is 703.85 in premarket, down 0.54%. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,370.89, the S&P 500 at 7,686.14, and the Dow fell 374.09 points to 53,185.90
The gauge understates what happened inside itQQQ fell 1.27% while five of these twelve fell more, three of them by over 3%. The index is diluted by everything in it that is not a long-duration AI story, so a mild index day was a severe one for the names the rate move actually hits. Treat the premarket figure as provisional: volume before the bell is thin, it reverses often, and today has scheduled data that can move it either way.
John Ternus became chief executive on 1 September, and Apple filed an amended Form 8-K that day setting out what he and Tim Cook will be paid.
Major move · company · settled close
Close $325.13, up 2.61%, the largest gain of the twelve on a day only two of the twelve rose Volume 52.43m shares against a 39.77m average, 132% of normal and the heaviest relative participation of the twelve Opened at $316.98, 0.04% above Monday's close, and rose 2.57% from there. Only Apple and Robinhood opened above Monday's close, and only Apple also finished above it Ternus: salary raised to $3m; fiscal 2027 annual equity award targeted at $55m; a prorated fiscal 2026 award targeted at $2.5m. Fiscal 2027 target pay about $58m 75% of the fiscal 2027 equity is performance RSUs vesting on Apple's total shareholder return relative to the rest of the S&P 500. The other 25% vests on time, 12.5% semiannually over four years Cook, now executive chairman: salary $2m from 26 September, fiscal 2027 equity targeted at $45m, split evenly between performance and time-based RSUs. Target pay about $47m Closed 5.64% below its 52-week high of $344.57, the smallest gap to its high of the twelve
Why it mattersA chief executive succession is a risk premium question, not an earnings question. For years the market has held back part of what it would otherwise pay per dollar of Apple's earnings, against the chance the handover goes badly. Tuesday removed the uncertainty about timing and about whether Cook walks away; the filing removed the uncertainty about incentives. Tying three-quarters of the new CEO's equity to beating the S&P 500 on total return, rather than to revenue or unit shipments, points him at the share price directly. Paying Cook $45m of equity on the same measure is the board buying continuity rather than accepting a clean break. Less transition risk, a smaller discount, a higher multiple on unchanged earnings.
Already priced in?Partly, and the shape of the session says which part. Settled close, not a premarket read. The transition date was known for months, so the schedule was priced; the pay structure was not, and it reached the tape during the afternoon. Rising 2.61% while QQQ fell 1.27% is a 3.9 point relative move, which is large for a compensation filing alone. The fuller reading: Apple was the only one of the twelve that opened higher and finished higher, so money rotated into the megacap whose earnings are nearest and whose event risk had just fallen.
Would flip ifThe 9 September launch disappoints. The multiple is now carrying a leadership premium as well as a product cycle, and Ternus is the hardware engineer who built the products. A weak reception to his first launch as CEO undoes both arguments at once.
Next date9 September, Apple launch event, 10:00 PT. Fiscal fourth-quarter results expected 29 October.
Palantir fell the most of the twelve, with no filing, contract or announcement dated 1 September.
Major move · sector, not company · settled close
Close $179.92, down 3.47%, the largest fall of the twelve Volume 24.39m against a 30.80m average, 79% of normal: a heavy fall on light participation Gapped down 1.95% at the open and fell a further 1.55% through the session, one of only four of the twelve to close below its open Closed 13.30% below its 52-week high of $207.52
Why it mattersPalantir is the clearest duration bet on this list. Almost none of what investors pay for sits in current earnings, so the price is a long stream of future profit discounted back, and moving that rate reprices it hard. The light volume matters: this was not investors selling a Palantir view, it was the absence of buyers on a bad macro day. Nothing about the government backlog changed on Tuesday.
Already priced in?There is no news to price. Settled close, and a rates move wearing a ticker. If the 10-year yield falls back, this reverses without anything happening at the company.
Would flip ifA large new government award lands with a dollar value attached. A signed backlog is the one thing that shortens the duration argument.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected 2 November.
Nebius fell 3.29% on the same rate move, with no company announcement dated 1 September.
Major move · sector, not company · settled close
Close $199.54, down 3.29%, below $200 for the first time in the recent range Volume 10.78m against a 19.07m average, 57% of normal, the lightest participation of the twelve Opened 3.48% below Monday's close, further below it than any of the other eleven, and recovered almost none of that Closed 33.46% below its 52-week high of $299.86
Why it mattersNebius builds data centres with borrowed money and rents them out later. That makes it the cleanest casualty of a bond selloff here: the cost of the debt funding the build and the rate applied to future rental income both move against it at once. Oracle fell about 4% on Tuesday for the same reason, and it is a better read-across for Nebius than any chip name.
Already priced in?Settled close on 57% of average volume: a market with no conviction rather than one selling hard.
Would flip ifA named hyperscaler signs multi-year capacity with a disclosed value. That converts speculative build into contracted revenue and takes the financing risk out of the story.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected 10 November.
Tesla gave back the bulk of Monday's 5.51% rise, with no company filing dated 1 September.
Major move · sector and giveback · settled close
Close $356.09, down 3.22%, against Monday's close of $367.95 Volume 36.00m against a 38.51m average, 94% of normal, after Monday's 162% Gapped down 1.93% and fell a further 1.32% through the session: no bid returned at any point Cybercab units listed in the Texas Motor Carrier Credentialing System rose from 7 to 45 by 31 August
Why it mattersMonday's gain was anticipation of Thursday's Cybercab event, not a disclosure, and anticipation is the first thing sold when the macro turns. The drop in volume from 162% to 94% of average confirms it: Monday's buyers did not come back to defend the price. Tesla's valuation above a carmaker's rests on autonomy earning money, and a fleet registered at 45 vehicles is a demonstration, not a business.
Already priced in?Settled close, and the sequence is the answer. Up 5.51% Monday, down 3.22% Tuesday, nothing filed on either day, about 2.1% higher across the two. Thursday decides which was right.
Would flip ifThursday's event names a production volume and a date. Anything short of that leaves Monday's rise as sentiment, and it will keep leaking away.
Amazon fell a second day after Monday's FTC and 22-state complaint over its advertising auctions.
Notable move · second day of the FTC suit · settled close
Close $254.92, down 1.87%, after Monday's -2.50%: down 4.32% across the two sessions Volume 31.42m against a 33.80m average, 93% of normal, down from 134% on Monday The whole fall was the opening gap of 1.90%. Amazon closed 0.04% above its open, so the regular session added nothing The complaint alleges more than $20bn taken from over 1.2m advertisers. Amazon's advertising revenue was $19.8bn in the June quarter
Why it mattersThe intraday flatline is the useful part. Nobody pressed the case further and nobody bought the dip. That is what a legal overhang looks like after day one: the news is priced, the length of the uncertainty is not, and trading stops until something new arrives. Advertising is close to pure margin for Amazon, so any settlement constraining how auction prices are set lands on operating profit rather than on sales.
Already priced in?Largely. Settled close. Amazon fell 1.87% against QQQ's 1.27%, so only about six tenths of a point is Amazon-specific on day two.
Would flip ifAmazon quantifies the exposure, or the FTC seeks structural remedies rather than money. A number turns an open-ended risk into a deduction investors can price.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected 29 October.
Nvidia fell 1.51%, roughly with the index, with no announcement dated 1 September.
Notable move · sector · settled close
Close $217.44, down 1.51%, against QQQ's -1.27% Volume 106.94m against a 145.12m average, 74% of normal Closed 8.07% below its 52-week high, the second-smallest gap to its high of the twelve The $3.5bn MediaTek convertible purchase was confirmed 31 August, about 90% of a $3.9bn issue Alphabet also joined. It closes 8 September
Why it mattersNvidia held up better than the AI names it supplies. Its earnings are collected now, so a higher rate on future money takes less out of its value than out of Palantir or Nebius. The MediaTek bond is priced and a day old, but the structure stands: Nvidia increasingly funds the buyers of its own chips, which makes backlog a weaker independent signal of demand.
Already priced in?Nothing new to price on Tuesday. Settled close, moved with the sector on 74% of average volume.
Would flip ifA financed customer defers or cancels. The circular financing argument stays theoretical until one link in the chain fails to pay.
Next dateMediaTek bond closes 8 September. Third-quarter results expected 18 November.
Alphabet fell 1.28%, in line with the index, with no filing dated 1 September beyond a director's routine Form 4.
Notable move · sector · settled close
Close $335.02, down 1.28%, almost exactly QQQ's -1.27% Director Frances Arnold reported the sale of 82 Class C shares. Reports that a Gemini 3.8 Flash model could ship this week are reporting, not an announcement
Why it mattersAlphabet tracked the tape, which after Monday's 2.09% fall on no news is itself informative. Two sessions of index-following price action say the capex argument that dominated last week has stopped setting the price day to day.
Already priced in?There is nothing to price. Settled close, index move, ordinary volume.
Would flip ifAlphabet raises its capital spending guidance again. That number has moved this stock all year, in both directions.
Microsoft fell 1.24% with no announcement dated 1 September. Two routine Form 4 filings covered scheduled equity vesting.
Notable move · sector · settled close
Close $501.02, down 1.24%, a second consecutive fall after Monday's -1.22% Satya Nadella's Form 4 reported 178,622 shares vesting with a portion withheld for tax; the chief commercial officer vested 29,724 with 18,080 withheld
Why it mattersScheduled vesting is an accounting event, not a signal: shares withheld for tax are surrendered to the company rather than sold, so nothing reaches the tape. The two-day slide is the same rate story, softened because Microsoft collects most of its earnings now.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. Settled close, ordinary volume, no company event.
Would flip ifAzure growth guidance changes. That single growth rate does more to set Microsoft's multiple than any other disclosure the company makes.
Next dateDividend announcement expected in September. First-quarter results expected 28 October.
Robinhood opened higher and then fell all day, with no company filing of its own dated 1 September.
Notable move · sector · settled close
Close $103.51, down 1.24%, on 98% of average volume Opened 0.51% above Monday's close, then fell 1.74% from the open, further from its open than any of the other eleven The Form 144 circulating for 4.1m RVI shares is Robinhood filing as broker for a holder of another company's stock, not a sale of its own
Why it mattersRobinhood's earnings track trading volumes, which rise with volatility, so a fearful tape is not straightforwardly bad for it. A sustained rise in long yields is, because it compresses the multiple paid for a business whose growth depends on retail risk appetite. Opening higher and then being sold all day says which of the two the market was weighting.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price. Settled close. This morning's -1.65% is the third-weakest premarket of the twelve and is provisional.
Would flip ifMonthly operating metrics show funded accounts or crypto volumes accelerating. Those move this stock between quarters.
Next dateMonthly operating data due mid-September. Third-quarter results expected 4 November.
Meta rose 1.08%, one of only two of the twelve to gain, with no filing or announcement dated 1 September.
Notable move · no company event · settled close
Close $578.54, up 1.08%, on 97% of average volume Opened at $557.80, 2.54% below Monday's close, then rose 3.72% from the open: the largest intraday recovery of the twelve Closed 26.84% below its 52-week high of $790.80 The $17.1bn multistate child-safety settlement was announced 26 August; the Instagram Shopping dismissal came 31 August. Neither is news from the past 24 hours
Why it mattersMeta rose because it had already been sold. It sits 26.84% below its high, having taken its legal and AI-spending hits over the past fortnight. On a day the market punished stocks priced for distant profits, a stock already repriced downward has less to give back, and buyers who wanted tech exposure without duration risk had somewhere to go. That is a rotation into cheapness, not a change in the business.
Already priced in?No news to price. Settled close, ordinary volume, and a genuine intraday reversal rather than a gap. Note it is giving some back: Meta is -0.73% premarket.
Would flip ifMeta raises its AI capital spending outlook again. That is what opened the gap to its high in the first place.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected 28 October.
Marvell opened 3.12% below Monday's close, recovered nearly all of it, then fell 3.03% in premarket this morning.
Minor move · sector · but the weakest premarket of the twelve
Close $210.39, down 0.60%, on 73% of average volume Opened 3.12% below Monday's close and rose 2.60% from there, the second-largest intraday recovery of the twelve Premarket -3.03%, the weakest premarket of the twelve, priced at 07:01 ET Closed 36.22% below its 52-week high of $329.88, the second-widest gap to its high of the twelve The Google custom-chip agreement worth up to $120bn through fiscal 2033, and guidance that it contributes materially only from fiscal 2029, both date from results on 27 August
Why it mattersThe Google deal is enormous and the payoff is three years out, which is exactly the asset shape a rising discount rate punishes hardest. That is why Marvell is the weakest premarket of the twelve this morning without any new company information. Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of about $12bn and fiscal 2028 of about $18bn are already on the table. Nothing changed overnight except the price of money.
Already priced in?Provisional, and it contradicts yesterday. Tuesday's settled close was almost flat and buyers took it back off the lows. This morning's -3.03% is a premarket read on thin volume and the open will settle it.
Would flip ifBroadcom's results on 3 September confirm strong custom AI silicon demand. That moves the near-term read on Marvell more than anything Marvell says before its investor day.
Next date3 September, Broadcom results. 6 October, Marvell investor day.
Intel gapped down 2.92% and recovered most of it, closing 0.60% lower, with no announcement dated 1 September.
Minor move · sector · settled close
Close $88.97, down 0.60%, on 85% of average volume Opened at $86.90 and rose 2.38% from there Closed 37.50% below its 52-week high of $142.35, the widest gap to its high of the twelve Still 6.35% below the $95 price of the $20bn equity offering, which priced 10 August Reports that SK Hynix is evaluating Intel Foundry for HBM4E base dies are unconfirmed by either company
Why it mattersA rate move barely touches Intel, because almost nothing in its price is a bet on profits far in the future, and the intraday recovery shows it. What still sets the price is the $95 offering: buyers from three weeks ago are underwater, and that supply overhangs the stock until it clears.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. Settled close, ordinary volume.
Would flip ifSK Hynix confirms a foundry agreement with a dollar value. An external customer with a name is the one thing that would revalue Intel Foundry.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected 22 October.
Read-through
The market did not change its mind about AI. It changed the rate at which it discounts it.
Read the session in two halves and it makes sense. The shock landed at the open: ten of the twelve opened below Monday's close, Nebius furthest below at 3.48%. Then buyers came back for some and not others. Meta rose 3.72% from its open, Marvell 2.60%, Intel 2.38%. Palantir fell a further 1.55% and Tesla 1.32%. The names bought back are the ones already marked down; the names sold further are the ones still priced for distant profits.
The asymmetry worth keeping is Apple against Marvell. Both are stories about the next several years. Apple's answer arrives on 9 September and every year after. Marvell's arrives in fiscal 2029. On a day the rate on future money jumped, Apple opened higher and finished higher, while Marvell had to claw back a 3.12% hole just to finish near flat. Same rate move, opposite treatment, and the only difference is when the cash shows up.
A read-through for the chip names. Nvidia fell 1.51% while Palantir and Nebius fell over 3%. Nvidia sells the shovels and gets paid on delivery; they buy the shovels and get paid later. When money gets dearer, that ordering is what the market trades on, ahead of anything about demand. Broadcom's results tomorrow test the same distinction for Marvell.
Nothing material
GOOGL · MSFT · NVDA · INTC · META · HOOD · PLTR · NBIS · TSLA · MRVL, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and the gaps in this edition
Nothing material. Eleven of the twelve had no filing, contract, result or announcement dated 1 September; only Apple did. Ten had no company event at all in the window, and Amazon's driver was Monday's complaint rather than anything new. Microsoft's and Alphabet's Form 4 filings cover scheduled vesting and a sale of 82 shares respectively; neither is a signal.
Excluded as old. Meta's $17.1bn multistate child-safety settlement was announced 26 August, and the Instagram Shopping dismissal came 31 August. Intel's $20bn equity offering priced 10 August at $95. Marvell's Google agreement and the fiscal 2029 timing came with results on 27 August. Nvidia's $3.5bn MediaTek convertible was confirmed 31 August. Palantir's Karp share sale was 20 August, and its Maven and Army awards are from late August and July. Nebius's $5.75bn convertible was earlier in August. The Amazon FTC complaint was filed 31 August and appears here only as a second-day price effect. All of these recirculated in coverage during the past 24 hours. None of them happened in it.
Not treated as news. Reports that SpaceX might acquire Tesla, and that Google may ship a Gemini 3.8 Flash model this week, are speculation and unconfirmed reporting with no filing or company statement behind them.
Earnings. None of the twelve reports within fourteen days. The next scheduled results are Tesla on 21 October and Intel on 22 October.
Gaps in the data. The extended-hours feed carried a genuine premarket print for all twelve this morning, stamped between 05:12 and 07:01 ET on 2 September, so every extended figure is recorded as premarket and after-hours is null throughout. Palantir's is the oldest at 05:12 and the thinnest. Intraday charts for GOOGL, HOOD, INTC, MRVL, NBIS, PLTR and TSLA redrew from cache because the intraday fetch was throttled; all twelve daily series are current to 1 September, so the charts on this page are not stale. sec.gov is blocked from this environment, so Apple's amended 8-K is attributed to coverage of it, cross-checked across Bloomberg, Fortune and MacRumors, which agree on every figure. Reports differ on the US 10-year yield, quoting between 4.75% and 4.79%; the higher figure is used here and described as a twenty-month high.
Earnings within 14 days
2 SepMacro ADP private payrolls, 08:15 ET. Consensus about 48,000 against 44,000 prior
2 SepMacro EIA crude inventories, and the Fed's Beige Book at 14:00 ET
3 SepTSLA invitation-only Cybercab event, Austin
3 SepMacro Broadcom third-quarter results, the near-term read on custom AI silicon, so it matters for MRVL and NVDA
4 SepMacro August employment report, 08:30 ET. The last jobs print before the FOMC
8 SepNVDA MediaTek convertible bond closes and lists in Singapore
9 SepAAPL launch event, 10:00 PT. Ternus's first as chief executive
16 SepMacro FOMC decision, meeting 15 to 16 September
26 SepAAPL Cook's executive chairman salary of $2m takes effect
6 OctMRVL investor day. Sizing fiscal 2029 custom silicon is the question
21 OctTSLA third-quarter results
22 OctINTC third-quarter results expected
Tue 1 Sep 2026AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, NVDA, MRVL
The 30-second version
The FTC and 22 states sued Amazon on Monday over its advertising auctions. The complaint alleges Amazon secretly inflated prices and took more than $20bn from over 1.2m advertisers. Amazon closed -2.50%, the largest fall of the twelve. But the shares were already down 2.01% before the complaint landed at 14:00 ET, so the market charged about half a point for the lawsuit itself.
Tesla rose 5.51% on nothing the company filed or said. Tesla posted the largest gain of the twelve. Tesla also traded the heaviest volume of the twelve, at 162% of average. The dated catalyst is an invitation-only Cybercab event in Austin on 3 September. That is anticipation, not a disclosure, and premarket has already given back 1.07%.
Overnight the tape turned, and the reason is not on this list. Two oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night as US and Iranian hostilities resumed. Oil and bond yields rose, the US 10-year reached its highest since January 2025, and QQQ is -1.00% premarket. Eleven of these twelve are down before the open. Robinhood is the exception.
Market-wide
Two oil tankers, one Saudi and one South Korean-owned, were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night 31 August, as US and Iranian hostilities resumed. Oil rose and bond yields rose with it. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a level last seen in January 2025
An oil shock reaches these twelve through the bond market, not through the petrol pumpNone of these companies buys much oil. The transmission is the discount rate. Dearer energy raises expected inflation, expected inflation lifts long yields, and a higher long yield shrinks the present value of profits expected years out. That is a bigger deduction for a company earning the bulk of its value in 2032 than for one earning it in 2027. It compounds the Jackson Hole problem from Friday, when the Fed chair said a September increase was live. Rates and oil are now pushing the same way.
QQQ closed at 716.76 on Monday, up 0.05%, and is 709.57 in premarket, down 1.00%. The S&P 500 tracker fell 0.30% on Monday and is -0.46% premarket. Monday was the last session of a month all three main indexes finished higher
The gauge and the news are on different clocks, so read them separatelyMonday's flat QQQ is not evidence of calm. Underneath it Tesla rose 5.51% and Amazon fell 2.50%, which is a rotation cancelling itself out at the index level. The premarket number is the one carrying the macro, and it is provisional: premarket volume is thin and frequently reverses at the open. Do not treat this morning's -1.00% as a decision. The open will settle it.
The Federal Trade Commission and 22 state attorneys general sued Amazon on Monday, alleging it secretly inflated the prices advertisers paid in its own ad auctions.
Notable move · company · the fall preceded the news
Close $259.77, down 2.50%, the largest fall of the twelve Volume 45.42m shares against a 33.91m average, 134% of normal and the third-heaviest volume of the twelve The complaint alleges more than $20bn taken from over 1.2m advertisers, and was filed in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington Three products are named: Sponsored Products, Sponsored Brands and Sponsored Display. The FTC says Amazon began overriding its auction prices in 2018 and added an undisclosed floor it called a soft reserve price in 2019 Regulators say pay-per-click prices rose by as much as 50% during major shopping events. Reports differ on the period, describing it as five years or seven Amazon's advertising revenue was $19.8bn in the June quarter, up 26% on a year earlier, on about $180bn of group revenue. Some reports put that growth at 24% Amazon called the suit misguided and said it strongly disagrees Intraday: Amazon traded near $261 until the 14:00 ET half-hour, then fell to $257.14 on 5.85m shares, roughly six times the volume of the preceding bar
Why it mattersAdvertising is where Amazon's margin comes from, not where its revenue comes from. Retail is a low-margin business and ads are close to pure profit, which is why investors will pay more per dollar of Amazon's earnings than the retail operation alone would justify. The suit does not attack the size of that business, it attacks the mechanism that sets the price of a single ad. If auctions have to run transparently, the take per ad falls, and that lands on operating margin directly rather than showing up as lost sales. The second effect is slower and larger. A regulator now has discovery rights over how Amazon prices its highest-margin product, and what surfaces in that process tends to outlive the case itself.
Already priced in?This is a settled close, and the sequence matters more than the total. From Friday's $266.43, Amazon had already fallen to $261.07 by 13:30 ET, down 2.01% on the AI capex mood rather than on any lawsuit. The complaint moved it to $257.14, down 3.49% at the low, and it recovered into the close at -2.50%. Net, the market paid about half a percentage point for the case and faded a third of the shock the same afternoon. That is what a market pricing a long antitrust fight, not an earnings miss, looks like. Premarket adds -0.87% and is provisional.
Would flip ifThe FTC seeks disgorgement of the full $20bn rather than an injunction and future conduct rules. Damages that size are a one-off cash item and would be priced quite differently from a change to how auctions run.
Next dateAmazon's response is due in the Western District of Washington. Third-quarter results are expected 29 October.
Tesla rose 5.51% on Monday with no filing, contract or company announcement dated 31 August. The move tracked anticipation of an invitation-only Cybercab event in Austin on 3 September.
Major move · no company event
Close $367.95, up 5.51%, the largest gain of the twelve Volume 61.16m shares against a 37.66m average, 162% of normal and the heaviest volume of the twelve Tesla trades 26.24% below its 52-week high of $498.83 The dated items in the past 24 hours were an Autopilot crash report and remarks about SpaceX building gas turbine parts in-house. Neither is a Tesla financial disclosure Premarket -1.07%, returning about a fifth of Monday's gain
Why it mattersThis is a sentiment move and should be read as one. Nothing changed on Monday in what Tesla sells, at what price, or at what cost. What changed is how many investors want to hold the shares into a scheduled demonstration. That distinction is the whole point, because a price that rises on positioning falls back on positioning: it has no earnings figure underneath it to defend the level. The Cybercab matters to Tesla's valuation because the robotaxi case is what justifies paying more for Tesla than for a carmaker. But a case is only worth something once it comes with a production date and a cost per vehicle, and Monday supplied neither.
Already priced in?There is nothing company-specific to price. That is the finding, not a gap in the reporting. A settled close, the largest gain of the twelve, the heaviest volume of the twelve, and no disclosure to attach any of it to. Premarket has already returned 1.07%, which is what a crowded position ahead of a date looks like when the tape turns.
Would flip ifTesla gives a production date and a unit cost for the Cybercab on 3 September. That converts an anticipation trade into a number people can model.
Next date3 September, Cybercab event, Austin. Third-quarter deliveries in the first days of October, results 21 October.
Alphabet fell 2.09% on heavy volume with no filing, contract or company announcement dated 31 August.
Notable move · no company event · sector
Close $339.35, down 2.09% Volume 33.32m shares against a 22.79m average, 146% of normal and the second-heaviest volume of the twelve Alphabet is guided to capital spending of roughly $175bn to $185bn in 2026 The dated item was press reporting that meaningful YouTube creator revenue from newer AI features is not expected in force until 2029. That is coverage, not a company statement Alphabet's £260m UK Play Store settlement, which some outlets ran on Monday, was agreed 27 August and is not news
Why it mattersHeavy volume with no company event is the signature of a sector decision rather than a company one, and the sector here is AI capital spending. Alphabet is the purest case on this list: it is spending at an annual rate close to its own operating profit, and the return arrives on someone else's schedule. When long yields rise, as they did on Monday, the market reprices exactly that gap between spending now and earning later. What moves is not the growth rate but how many years of it investors are willing to underwrite, which is the same thing as what they pay per dollar of earnings.
Already priced in?Settled close, and it moved without an event, which is the flag. On a session when QQQ finished flat at +0.05%, a 2.09% fall on 146% of average volume is a real decision by real size, not drift. The market is weighting the capex bill above the search and cloud results it liked a month ago.
Would flip ifAlphabet caps or defers 2027 capital spending. A spending ceiling is the one thing that resolves the argument in the market's favour without needing the revenue to arrive first.
Next dateThird-quarter results 28 October, where the 2027 capex frame is the number to watch.
Anthropic signed a six-year, $35bn cloud computing deal with Lambda, a provider Nvidia backs, reported on Monday by Bloomberg, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.
Notable move · company · a customer Nvidia helped fund
Close $220.78, up 1.48%, on 86% of average volume The Anthropic and Lambda agreement is $35bn over six years Capacity sits in a Hut 8 data centre in Nueces County, Texas. Nvidia contracted with Hut 8 for that capacity several weeks earlier Anthropic separately committed $45bn over six years to Nscale, also Nvidia-backed, earlier in August Nvidia trades 6.66% below its 52-week high, the narrowest gap to its 52-week high of the twelve Neither Nvidia nor Anthropic is a direct counterparty to the other in this agreement. It was reported by news organisations, not announced by Nvidia
Why it mattersThe figure people should watch is not the $35bn, it is who is standing behind the buyer. Nvidia's growth case rests on demand it does not have to finance. Each deal where an Nvidia-backed provider signs an Nvidia-supplied customer converts an Nvidia investment into Nvidia revenue, which is real cash but a weaker signal about the rest of the market. The practical consequence is to the multiple, not the earnings: investors discount revenue whose collectability depends on the seller's own balance sheet. That is why several outlets called the structure circular, and why a good headline number produced only a 1.48% rise on below-average volume.
Already priced in?Settled close, and the evidence is weak in both directions. A $35bn compute commitment naming Nvidia silicon would normally do more than 1.48%, and it did it on 86% of average volume, which is weak confirmation. The market appears to be discounting the deal for its circularity rather than ignoring it. Premarket -1.27% has already erased Monday's gain, but that is the macro, not the deal.
Would flip ifAnthropic or another large buyer signs comparable capacity with a provider Nvidia has no stake in. That would show the demand standing on its own funding.
Next dateBroadcom's third-quarter results on 3 September are the nearest independent read on AI silicon demand. Nvidia's own results are expected 18 November.
Marvell fell a further 2.29% with no filing or announcement dated 31 August, extending Friday's 10.28% fall after results.
Notable move · no new event · Friday continuing
Close $211.66, down 2.29%, on 80% of average volume Marvell sits 35.84% below its 52-week high of $329.88, the second-widest gap to its 52-week high of the twelve Premarket -2.67%, the weakest premarket print of the twelve The dated coverage repeated Thursday's raise, to about $18bn of fiscal 2028 revenue from $16.5bn, and the timing problem: the larger Google contribution arrives in fiscal 2029
Why it mattersTwo sessions of falling on no new information is how a stock finishes repricing an expectation rather than a business. Friday established that the raise was smaller than what the price already assumed. Monday and this morning are the position adjustment that follows, on below-average volume, which is consistent with sellers working out rather than new sellers arriving. Nothing here changes the fiscal 2028 forecast. It changes who owns the shares at what cost.
Already priced in?Settled close on light volume, extending a settled fall. Two thirds of the damage was done on Friday. Premarket -2.67% is provisional and thin, and this morning it is hard to separate from the general risk-off in the twelve.
Would flip ifMarvell puts a number on fiscal 2029 custom silicon at its 6 October investor day and it clears $10bn.
Next date3 September, Broadcom's results, the nearest comparable read on custom AI silicon. Investor day 6 October.
A South Korean report on Monday said SK Hynix was weighing Intel Foundry for the base dies in its next high-bandwidth memory. SK Hynix denied it the same day.
Minor move · a report and a denial in one session
Close $89.51, up 0.04%, on 71% of average volume The Herald Economy report named HBM4E base dies. SK Hynix said it is not considering Intel Foundry for that work and that parts of the reporting contradict the facts No agreement was announced by either company Intel trades 37.12% below its 52-week high of $142.35, the widest gap to its 52-week high of the twelve Premarket -2.36%, the second-weakest premarket print of the twelve
Why it mattersIntel's foundry case rests entirely on named external customers, because the fabs are already built and the losses are already being taken. A committed customer converts fixed cost into a utilisation rate, which is the single variable that decides whether the foundry ever earns its cost of capital. That is why a rumour like this moves the stock at all. A denial the same day returns the value to zero, and a flat close on light volume says the market priced the round trip correctly.
Already priced in?Settled close, and +0.04% on 71% of average volume is as close to no reaction as this list gets. The market treated report and denial as cancelling. This morning's -2.36% is the macro reaching a high-beta name, not the SK Hynix story, and it is provisional.
Would flip ifEither company confirms a base-die agreement. A named HBM customer is the first external validation Intel Foundry would have at that node.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected 22 October.
Monday was Tim Cook's last day as chief executive. John Ternus takes over today, 1 September, with Cook becoming executive chairman.
Minor move · a scheduled handover, known since April
Close $316.85, down 0.89%, on 102% of average volume The succession was disclosed in April 2026 and reconfirmed 26 August. Today is the effective date, not the announcement Ternus is 50, joined Apple in 2001 and has led hardware engineering since 2021. The board approved the transition unanimously Cook's remit as executive chairman is reported to centre on relationships with the US administration and the Chinese government Separately, Apple accused OpenAI of destroying evidence in its trade-secrets suit, in a filing reported early Tuesday. No damages figure attaches to that motion
Why it mattersA handover disclosed four months ahead carries almost no information on the day it happens, which is the point of announcing it that way. What it does change is where the risk now sits. Apple's China exposure and its tariff position have been managed personally by Cook, and keeping him as executive chairman explicitly for those relationships tells you the board thinks that work does not transfer. The valuation consequence is small and one-directional: the succession risk investors had been discounting since April is now resolved, and nothing new was added.
Already priced in?Fully, and for four months. A 0.89% fall on average volume on the last day of the outgoing chief executive's tenure is the market saying it already knew. Premarket -0.27% is a shallower decline than the other ten that are down before the open, which fits Apple's limited exposure to both the oil shock and the AI capex argument.
Would flip ifTernus changes the capital return policy or the China manufacturing plan at the 9 September event. Either would make the handover a real event after the fact.
Next date9 September, launch event, Steve Jobs Theater. Fourth-quarter results 29 October.
Robinhood rose 0.53% on Monday and is up 2.61% premarket. Robinhood has the strongest premarket print of the twelve. It is the only one of the twelve above water before the open.
Minor move · premarket unexplained
Close $104.81, up 0.53%, on 73% of average volume Premarket +2.61%, stamped 06:35 ET The only dated company item in the past 24 hours is a Form 144 covering 4.1m shares of Robinhood Ventures Fund I, reported early Tuesday. sec.gov is blocked from this environment, so it could not be read directly Robinhood trades 31.88% below its 52-week high of $153.86 Friday's 5.01% fall on the Ninth Circuit prediction-markets ruling has not been recovered
Why it mattersThis is flagged because the move has no explanation this brief can stand behind. A Form 144 is notice of an intended sale, which is mildly negative if anything, and it does not account for a stock rising while eleven others fall. Robinhood is the highest-beta name on this list and its revenue tracks retail risk appetite directly, so a risk-off morning normally takes it down hard rather than up. Going up while oil spikes and yields rise is the opposite of what its business model implies. Until something dated explains it, treat it as thin premarket noise rather than information.
Already priced in?Unknowable, and marked as such. The only evidence is a premarket print on thin volume, which this brief treats as provisional by default. It is contradicted by the macro and unsupported by any release. The open will settle it.
Would flip ifThe Supreme Court takes the prediction-markets question, or Robinhood discloses August trading volumes. Either would give the price something real to attach to.
Next dateMonthly operating data for August, usually published in the second week. Third-quarter results expected 4 November.
A US magistrate judge in San Jose dismissed an antitrust claim over Instagram Shopping on Monday, brought by the London startup Ollywan.
Minor move · a dismissal with no figure attached
Close $572.34, down 0.98%, on 78% of average volume Judge Virginia DeMarchi held the claims were filed too late and did not plausibly show harm to competition, and that antitrust law does not stop Meta enforcing its trademark The dismissal comes with leave to amend, so the case is not finished No damages figure was attached to the claim in the coverage Meta trades 27.63% below its 52-week high of $790.80
Why it mattersA dismissal with leave to amend removes a small tail risk and creates no value, which is why the shares did not move on it. It matters only as a marker in a longer pattern: Meta has now cleared the FTC structural case and this one, and each win reduces the probability investors assign to a forced divestiture. That probability is a discount applied to the whole company, so it is worth more than the size of any individual claim. On Monday it was worth nothing, because the claim was small and the ruling is provisional.
Already priced in?Settled close, on below-average volume, and the shares fell anyway. That is the correct response to a minor procedural win: the market weighted the sector tape above it.
Would flip ifOllywan files an amended complaint that survives, or the FTC's appeal of the Instagram and WhatsApp ruling advances.
Next dateThird-quarter results 28 October.
Read-through
Monday sold the companies that buy AI compute and bought the one that sells it. Overnight, that stopped mattering.
The Monday split was about who pays. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta all fell. Nvidia rose 1.48%. Those are the customers and the supplier of the same construction project, and money moved from the spenders to the one being paid. Alphabet is the clean version. It traded the second-heaviest volume of the twelve. It fell 2.09% with no company release dated 31 August, on renewed argument about capex of roughly $175bn to $185bn this year and when it earns anything back.
The Nvidia item complicates its own good day. Anthropic's $35bn deal is with Lambda, which Nvidia backs, for capacity in a Hut 8 data centre Nvidia had already contracted. Earlier in August Anthropic committed $45bn to Nscale, also Nvidia-backed. Nvidia is increasingly a party to the financing of its own demand. That does not make the revenue fake. It does mean the backlog is worth less as an independent signal, because the customer's ability to pay is partly Nvidia's own balance sheet.
The asymmetry worth keeping. Alphabet fell 2.09% on no company news. Amazon fell 2.50% with a federal lawsuit alleging more than $20bn of overcharging. Nearly the same fall, and only one had an event. Either the market thinks a slow antitrust case is worth about as much as a bad afternoon of sentiment, which is defensible given how long these run, or Alphabet's fall was oversized. Both readings say the same thing: on Monday the AI capital cycle mattered more to these prices than the regulator did.
Nothing material
MSFT · PLTR · NBIS, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and the gaps in this edition
Nothing material.MSFT -1.22% had a multi-hour Outlook and Exchange Online outage on 31 August, traced to an authentication component, with reports starting about 11:30. An outage is an operational event, not a financial disclosure, and no filing followed. Microsoft's September dividend increase is expected, not announced. PLTR +0.05% and NBIS -1.37% had no filing, contract or announcement dated 31 August.
Excluded as old. Palantir's Pentagon coverage recirculated on Monday, but the underlying items are the 4 August memo directing up to $243.9m of no-bid work through March 2027, the Maven program-of-record designation in late August worth up to $2.30bn over five years, and the $10bn ten-year Army agreement from July. None is news. Alphabet's £260m UK Play Store settlement was agreed 27 August. Nvidia's $20bn buyback authorisation came with its late-August results. Anthropic's $45bn Nscale commitment was earlier in August. Marvell's Google warrant was issued 19 August.
Earnings. None of the twelve reports within fourteen days. The next scheduled results are Tesla on 21 October and Intel on 22 October.
Gaps in the data. The extended-hours feed served a genuine premarket print for all twelve this morning, stamped between 04:13 and 07:01 ET. Microsoft's is the oldest at 04:13 and the thinnest. No after-hours figures are recorded, because the feed carries only the current extended session. sec.gov is blocked from this environment, so the FTC complaint, Apple's OpenAI filing and Robinhood's Form 144 are attributed to coverage rather than read directly. The FTC's own press release is also blocked here.
Earnings within 14 days
1 SepAAPL John Ternus becomes chief executive today. Tim Cook becomes executive chairman
3 SepTSLA invitation-only Cybercab event, Austin
3 SepMacro Broadcom third-quarter results, the near-term read on custom AI silicon, so it matters for MRVL and NVDA
4 SepMacro August employment report, 08:30 ET. The last jobs print before the FOMC
9 SepAAPL launch event, Steve Jobs Theater, 10:00 PT
9 SepMacro Treasury's larger long-end buybacks begin, doubling to $4bn
16 SepMacro FOMC decision, meeting 15 to 16 September. An increase is priced near even
6 OctMRVL investor day. Sizing fiscal 2029 custom silicon is the question
21 OctTSLA third-quarter results. Deliveries in the first days of October
22 OctINTC third-quarter results expected
Mon 31 Aug 2026MRVL, HOOD, NVDA, NBIS, AMZN, INTC, TSLA
The 30-second version
Marvell's after-hours fall became a rout. Marvell closed -10.28%, the largest fall of the twelve. Marvell traded 167% of average volume, the heaviest volume of the twelve. Thursday's raise took the fiscal 2028 revenue target to about $18bn from $16.5bn, but the shares had already run about 178% this year, and the Google money does not arrive in force until fiscal 2029.
The Fed chair opened the door to a rate rise, and the list split down the middle. Kevin Warsh told Jackson Hole on Friday that inflation is still too high and that the Fed may have work to do. Futures moved the odds of a September increase from about a third to roughly even. Six of these twelve rose and six fell, and the dividing line was not size or valuation. It was who pays for the AI build.
Robinhood lost 5.01% on a court ruling, the second-largest fall of the twelve. The Ninth Circuit held on Friday that states may regulate prediction markets as gambling, and refused Robinhood's request for relief. A Third Circuit ruling in April said the opposite, so the Supreme Court is likely to settle it.
Market-wide
Fed chair Kevin Warsh told the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday 28 August that inflation remains too high and that the Fed may have work to do on rates. Futures tracked by CME moved the probability of an increase at the 15 to 16 September meeting from about a third to roughly even
A rate rise is now a live case, and it reaches the AI build before it reaches the indexHigher rates do two separate things to this list. They shrink the present value of profits expected years out, which weighs on the richest valuations. They also raise the cost of the debt and convertible paper that funds data centres, which weighs on the companies borrowing to build them. On Friday the second effect dominated. Nebius, which closed a $5.75bn convertible on 24 August, fell 4.26%. Nvidia fell 4.57%. The megacaps that fund capacity from operating cash rose.
QQQ fell 0.65% on Friday, a mild close for a hawkish surprise. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.52% to 26,402.42 and the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76. All three main indexes still finished the week higher
The gauge contradicts the macro read, and the split underneath explains whyA rate-hike warning should hit the richest valuations hardest. It did not. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Meta all rose, and Palantir held. The six that fell were the AI hardware and financing names plus Robinhood, which had its own court ruling. So Friday was a rotation about who funds the build, not a general de-rating of technology. Read a quiet QQQ as two large opposite moves cancelling, not as a calm session.
Items · sorted by size
● MRVLChart-10.28% Friday close, settled · -0.11% after hours
Friday was the market's full verdict on Thursday evening's results. Marvell beat on revenue and earnings and raised both forward years, and the shares fell anyway.
Major move · company · the settled reaction
Close $216.62, down 10.28%, the largest fall of the twelve Volume 48.86m shares against a 29.29m average, 167% of normal and the heaviest volume of the twelve Fiscal 2028 revenue target about $18bn, raised $1.5bn from the $16.5bn set a quarter ago, roughly 50% growth Third-quarter guidance $3.15bn plus or minus 5%, against about $3.03bn expected The Google warrant issued 19 August covers 58.97m shares at $206.58, about $12.2bn, vesting in 240 tranches toward a $120bn ceiling through fiscal 2033 Management has said the larger Google contribution arrives in fiscal 2029, and that revenue covered by the agreement through fiscal 2028 was already inside the old forecast Marvell now sits 34.33% below its 52-week high of $329.88, the second-widest gap to its 52-week high of the twelve
Why it mattersWhat matters is not the raise, it is the distance between the raise and the expectation. Investors had already marked fiscal 2028 up when the Google agreement surfaced in August, so adding $1.5bn confirmed less than the price had assumed. What repriced was the premium, not the business. The second problem is timing. Revenue already under contract through fiscal 2028 sat in the old forecast, and the incremental Google money starts a year later. A year of waiting is a year of discounting, and investors pay less per dollar of earnings for growth that arrives later.
Already priced in?This is a settled close, not a premarket guess, and it is the cleanest read in the edition. Thursday evening's print was -7.64% and the regular session took it to -10.28%, on 167% of average volume. A deeper fall on full liquidity means the overnight reaction understated the damage rather than overshooting it. Friday evening added nothing more, at -0.11%.
Would flip ifMarvell puts a number on fiscal 2029 custom silicon at its 6 October investor day and it clears $10bn. That moves the argument back from timing to size.
Next date6 October, investor day. Third-quarter results follow in early December.
● HOODChart-5.01% Friday close, settled · -0.25% after hours
The Ninth Circuit ruled on Friday that Kalshi's sports event contracts are gambling rather than swaps, and that states may regulate prediction market platforms. It refused Robinhood's request for injunctive relief.
Major move · company · a legal ruling with no dollar figure
Close $104.26, down 5.01%, the second-largest fall of the twelve The court held that the sports event contracts were not swaps because they were sports bets, and that the substance of the product is sports gambling whatever it is called It rejected appeals by Kalshi and Crypto.com against Nevada halting their operations, and denied Robinhood injunctive relief The Third Circuit ruled in April 2026 that event contracts are swaps under CFTC oversight. The split between circuits points to the Supreme Court Robinhood traded on 75% of average volume and sits 32.24% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe ruling attacks the structure of a new revenue line rather than its current size. Under one federal regulator, prediction markets scale nationally at low marginal cost. Under state gambling regimes they need licences one state at a time, and some states can bar them outright. That turns a fast, cheap national rollout into a slow and expensive patchwork, and it caps how large the business can get. Investors have been paying a higher multiple for a third engine beside equities and crypto trading. Friday cut the odds that engine ever runs at full size.
Already priced in?Partly, and the window is clean. The ruling landed during Friday's session and the stock fell 5.01% into a settled close. But that prices a legal risk, not an outcome. No dollar figure exists yet, because Robinhood has never broken out prediction-market revenue, so the market is guessing at the size of what it just marked down. Friday evening's -0.25% adds nothing.
Would flip ifThe Supreme Court takes the case and stays the Ninth Circuit ruling, or Robinhood discloses that prediction markets are immaterial to revenue.
Next dateNo date is set. Watch for a petition to the Supreme Court, and for third-quarter results in late October.
Nvidia fell 4.57% with no filing, contract or company announcement dated 28 August. It had risen 8.74% on Thursday after results.
Major move · sector, not company · giving back Thursday
Close $217.55, down 4.57%, the third-largest fall of the twelve Volume 137% of average, heavy for a session with no company news Thursday's gain was 8.74%. Across the two days Nvidia is up 3.77%, so Friday gave back about 57% of the earnings move Nvidia is 8.03% below its 52-week high The paused revenue-share programme reported by the Wall Street Journal is dated 27 August and is not Friday news
Why it mattersNothing in the business changed on Friday, so read this as positions being trimmed into a hawkish Fed rather than a verdict on the quarter. The useful detail is which stocks the selling found. Nvidia, Marvell, Intel and Nebius fell while the megacaps that buy their chips rose. That pattern prices a slower or costlier build, not weaker demand now. Nvidia's own quarter argued against that and the shares fell regardless, which says the market is pricing the funding rather than the orders.
Already priced in?There is no company news to price. This is a settled close and a sector move, and it reads better against Thursday's 8.74% gain than on its own. Volume at 137% of average says real selling rather than drift. Nvidia's extended print came back stamped 11:00 ET Saturday, which is not a trading time, so there is no usable after-hours read.
Would flip ifNvidia restores the revenue-share financing, or a hyperscaler raises capital spending guidance and shows the build is not rate-constrained.
Next dateBroadcom's results on 3 September are the near-term read on custom AI silicon demand.
● NBISChart-4.26% Friday close, settled · -0.18% after hours
Nebius fell 4.26% with no filing, contract or company announcement dated 28 August.
Major move · sector, not company · the borrower in a hawkish week
Close $209.18, down 4.26% Volume 62% of average, the lightest volume of the twelve The $5.75bn convertible closed 24 August: $3.45bn of 0.50% notes due 2030 and $2.3bn of 4.50% notes due 2034 Nebius sits 30.24% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersNebius sits at the sharp end of a rate move, because it funds data centres with borrowed money rather than with cash from operations. The 2034 notes already carry a 4.50% coupon. A Fed that raises rather than cuts lifts the cost of the next tranche and lowers what buyers will pay for the conversion option, which is how a rented cost of capital turns into an equity problem. Nothing about the business changed on Friday. What changed is the price of the fuel.
Already priced in?Partly, but on thin evidence. This is a settled close, yet Nebius traded 62% of average volume, the lightest volume of the twelve. A large fall on light participation is a few sellers moving an empty book, not a considered repricing. Treat the size of the move as weak information and the direction as the signal.
Would flip ifNebius announces a contract that covers the 2034 coupon out of committed revenue rather than out of future fundraising.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected around 10 November. The FOMC decision on 16 September matters more.
Amazon rose 3.97%, the largest gain of the twelve, with no filing, contract or company announcement dated 28 August.
Major move · no qualifying company event
Close $266.43, up 3.97% from $256.26 on Thursday Volume 147% of average The only item dated 28 August was a broker raising its target price. This brief excludes price targets, and a target change is not a company event Amazon is 7.23% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersA 4% day in a company this size with no announcement is worth naming as such, because the alternative is inventing a cause. The honest read is rotation. Money left the companies that must borrow to build AI capacity and moved into the ones that fund it from operating cash, and Amazon funds its build from operating cash. If borrowing gets dearer, capacity paid for out of the till is worth more relative to capacity paid for with debt. That is a genuine repricing even with nothing announced.
Already priced in?There is nothing company-specific to price. This is a settled close on 147% of average volume, so the buying was real, but it was a rotation rather than a reaction to Amazon news. Amazon's extended print came back stamped 11:00 ET Saturday, which is not a trading time, so there is no usable after-hours read.
Would flip ifAmazon raises capital spending in a way that shifts it from cash-funded to debt-funded building. The rotation that helped it on Friday would then work against it.
Next dateThird-quarter results in late October. No company date falls before then.
Intel fell 2.85% on Friday with the rest of the semiconductor complex. Over the weekend Korea's Herald Economy reported that SK Hynix is weighing Intel Foundry for HBM4E base dies.
Notable move · sector Friday, a weekend report since
Close $89.47, down 2.85%, on 92% of average volume Intel sits 37.15% below its 52-week high, the widest gap to its 52-week high of the twelve The Herald Economy report is dated 30 August. SK Hynix has said parts of the story are inaccurate, without saying which parts No dollar value, wafer volume or start date has been attached to any arrangement SK Hynix uses TSMC's 12nm-class process for HBM4 base dies today. Industry estimates put that die at three to four times the cost of the core memory die
Why it mattersIntel's foundry arm is valued on whether an outside customer of consequence actually commits. The fabs are built and the losses are already being taken, so each new customer lands on a fixed cost base and the margin effect is large. Memory base dies would be a credible fit rather than a stretch, and they are a high-cost part SK Hynix has reason to second-source. But a newspaper report that the supposed customer partly denies is not a commitment. It carries no volume, no price and no date, so it changes the odds and not the forecast.
Already priced in?No, and the windows do not line up. Friday's 2.85% fall was a semiconductor move and it happened before the SK Hynix report existed. The report landed on Sunday, when nothing trades, so Monday's open is the first chance to price it. Intel's extended print came back stamped 11:00 ET Saturday and tells you nothing.
Would flip ifEither company confirms an agreement with a volume or a start date, or SK Hynix issues a full denial rather than a partial one.
Next dateThird-quarter results expected 22 October.
Tesla fell 1.71% with no filing, contract or company announcement dated 28 August.
Notable move · no company event
Close $348.75, down 1.71%, on 96% of average volume Tesla is 30.09% below its 52-week high The dated items in the past 24 hours were commentary on Full Self-Driving safety and robotaxi expansion, which this brief excludes
Why it mattersTesla was the one faller with neither a company event nor a clear link to the AI funding trade. On a day when rate expectations moved, a large purchase usually bought on credit is a straightforward loser: higher rates raise the monthly payment and thin the pool of buyers who qualify. That is a defensible reading, and it is still a reading rather than a fact. Volume slightly below average argues for drift rather than a decision.
Already priced in?There is nothing company-specific to price. This is a settled close on below-average volume, which is weak evidence either way. Tesla's extended print came back stamped 11:00 ET Saturday, which is not a trading time, so there is no usable after-hours read.
Would flip ifTesla changes US prices or financing terms, which would show the rate environment reaching demand rather than only sentiment.
Next dateThird-quarter deliveries in the first days of October. The China door-handle remedy programme begins 25 September.
Read-through
The market bought the companies that fund AI from cash and sold the ones that borrow to build it.
The split was not about valuation. A hawkish Fed is supposed to punish the dearest shares first. Instead Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Meta rose, and Palantir held. Nvidia, Marvell, Intel and Nebius fell. Those two groups are the customers and the suppliers of the same construction project.
The read-through runs one way. If rates rise, the next data centre costs more to finance. The hyperscalers absorb that out of operating cash and keep spending. The chip suppliers and the neoclouds wear the timing risk, because their revenue depends on somebody else's borrowing decision. Nebius is the sharp end: it closed a $5.75bn convertible on 24 August and fell 4.26% on Friday with no news of its own.
The asymmetry worth keeping. Nvidia reported a record quarter on Wednesday and still fell 4.57% on Friday. Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 target by $1.5bn and fell 10.28%. In both cases the results were good and the shares fell, which means the market is not arguing with demand today. It is arguing about who pays for the next three years of it, and at what rate of interest.
Nothing material
AAPL · MSFT · GOOGL · META · PLTR, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and the gaps in this edition
Nothing material.AAPL +1.63%, MSFT +1.68%, GOOGL +1.74%, META +1.21% and PLTR +0.19% had no filing, contract or company announcement dated 28 August. All five rose, which is the rotation described above rather than five separate stories. Apple's chief executive handover to John Ternus takes effect on 1 September and its launch event is 9 September, both confirmed on 26 August and covered here already.
Earnings. None of the twelve reports within fourteen days. The next scheduled result is Intel, expected 22 October.
Excluded as old. Meta's child-safety settlement of up to $16.68bn was agreed 26 August and covered here on 27 and 28 August. Nvidia's paused revenue-share programme was reported 27 August. Nebius's $5.75bn convertible closed 24 August, and its director share sales were filed 18 August for trades dated 14 August. Marvell's Google warrant was issued 19 August. A report that Iran struck an AWS facility in Bahrain recirculated this weekend with a fresh timestamp: the underlying item is dated 3 April 2026 and is not news.
Correction. Friday's edition gave the September FOMC meeting as 17 to 18 September. It is 15 to 16 September, with the decision on Wednesday 16 September.
Gaps in the data. The extended-hours feed served no premarket prices this morning, so every price in this edition is Friday's settled close. Eight tickers carried a genuine after-hours print stamped 19:59 ET Friday. For AMZN, TSLA, NVDA and INTC the feed returned a stamp of 11:00 ET Saturday, which is not a trading time, so those after-hours figures are recorded as null rather than guessed. sec.gov remains blocked from this environment, so filings are attributed to coverage rather than read directly.
Earnings within 14 days
1 SepAAPL John Ternus becomes chief executive, Tim Cook becomes executive chairman
3 SepMacro Broadcom third-quarter results. The near-term read on custom AI silicon, so it matters for MRVL and NVDA
4 SepMacro August employment report, 08:30 ET. The last jobs print before the FOMC
8 SepMacro Canada's matching tariffs on US goods are due to start
9 SepAAPL launch event, Steve Jobs Theater, 10:00 PT
16 SepMacro FOMC decision, meeting 15 to 16 September. An increase is priced near even
25 SepTSLA the China door-handle remedy programme begins
6 OctMRVL investor day. Sizing fiscal 2029 custom silicon is the question
Marvell beat, raised both of its forward years, and fell anyway. Revenue was a record $2.739bn, this quarter is guided to $3.15bn against about $3.03bn expected, and the fiscal 2028 target went up $1.5bn to $18bn. The stock fell 7.64% after hours. The shares had already run about 178% this year, so the forecast rose less than the expectation had.
Nvidia's Thursday session settled what Wednesday's premarket only suggested. It closed +8.74%, the largest gain of the twelve. Volume was 229% of average, the heaviest volume of the twelve. Bloomberg put the market value added at $442bn. Across all listed stocks, only Microsoft's $450bn rise earlier this month has ever exceeded that in a single day.
Two cautions on this edition. The extended-hours feed served no premarket prices this morning, so every extended figure here is Thursday evening's, stamped 19:59 ET. And the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Nvidia has paused the revenue-share financing it offered AI cloud companies. NBIS fell 1.14% after hours on that, the second-largest after-hours fall of the twelve.
Market-wide
Initial jobless claims for the week to 22 August came in at 203,000, down 4,000 and below the roughly 208,000 expected. At Jackson Hole, Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid said the current level of rates is not restraining the economy. That points to holding or raising, not cutting
A tighter labour market argues against cuts, and the tape ignored itFewer people claiming benefit means wages keep rising, and rising wages keep the Fed from cutting. Fast-growing tech is the part of the market most exposed to that. Its value sits in profits expected years out, and a higher discount rate shrinks those fastest. So the gauge should have lagged. It did the opposite: QQQ closed +1.37% against SPY +0.66%, a gap of 0.71pp in tech's favour. This is one day where the gauge contradicts the macro read, and the reason is a single stock. Strip Nvidia out and the index barely moves.
The Jackson Hole symposium opened on 27 August. Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks on Friday 28 August. No policy decision is made there. The next one is the FOMC meeting on 17 to 18 September
The speech, not the symposium, is the eventBorrowing costs are the single macro input that reaches all twelve of these names at once. These twelve are valued on profits well into the future, and several are funding data centres with debt or convertible notes. A chair signalling patience on cuts raises the cost of that funding directly. Nothing in Thursday's tape prices a view on what Warsh will say, so this is a live risk rather than a settled one.
Items · sorted by size
● MRVLChart-1.49% Thursday close · -7.64% after hours
Marvell reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 results after Thursday's close. It beat on revenue and earnings, and raised its outlook for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028.
Major move · company · a beat that was not big enough
Revenue $2.739bn, a record, up 37% against a year earlier and 13% on the quarter. That is $39.0m above the mid-point of the guidance given on 27 May Non-GAAP earnings $0.94 a share against about $0.93 expected. Non-GAAP net income $865.9m Data centre revenue $2.17bn, up 46% against a year earlier. Marvell now expects that segment to grow about 60% in fiscal 2027 Third-quarter guidance $3.15bn plus or minus 5%, against about $3.03bn expected. Earnings guided to $1.10 a share plus or minus $0.05, against about $1.07 expected Fiscal 2027 revenue outlook raised to about $12bn, roughly 45% growth, from about $11.5bn Fiscal 2028 revenue outlook raised to about $18bn, roughly 50% growth, up $1.5bn from the $16.5bn given a quarter ago Management said fiscal 2028 operating costs will grow at about half the rate of revenue. Operating margin should then reach the top of its 38% to 40% long-term range
Why it mattersA raise only pays if it beats the raise already in the price. Marvell's shares had climbed roughly 178% this year, with a further leg after the Google custom-chip agreement surfaced on 19 August. The market had already marked up fiscal 2028 on its own. Adding $1.5bn to that year is real money and still smaller than the mark-up. What fell was the premium, not the business. The open question is now timing rather than size. Custom silicon revenue is contracted, but the quarter it arrives in volume decides which year gets the growth. That is what the 6 October investor day exists to answer.
Already priced in?Split the windows. Marvell fell 1.49% during Thursday's session, the second-largest fall of the twelve, and that happened before the report. It is not a reaction to the numbers. The reaction is the 7.64% after-hours fall, on a print that beat on every line. Volume in the session was 141% of average, the second-heaviest volume of the twelve, so the positioning was already crowded going in.
Would flip ifManagement names the quarter the Google custom-chip volume ramps. A date converts a contract into a forecast, and the fiscal 2028 number stops being an assumption.
Next dateInvestor day, 6 October 2026. Third-quarter results in early December.
● NVDAChart+8.74% Thursday close · -0.79% after hours
Nvidia's shares rose 8.74% on Thursday, the settled reaction to Wednesday's results. They then slipped after hours on a Wall Street Journal report that it has paused a financing programme.
Major move · company · the reaction settled, then a new report
Closed $227.98, +8.74%, the largest gain of the twelve. Bloomberg put the market value added at $442bn. Across all listed stocks, only Microsoft's $450bn rise earlier this month has ever exceeded that in a single day Volume 297.2m shares against a 129.5m average, 229% of normal and the heaviest volume of the twelve The stock now sits 3.62% below its 52-week high, the smallest gap to a 52-week high of the twelve The Journal reported on 27 August that Nvidia stepped back from the revenue-share programme it announced in July. That programme extended credit support to AI cloud firms in exchange for a cut of revenue. Some staff had raised antitrust concerns Nvidia's response: the July model that opens compute access to the AI ecosystem is still in place and continues to evolve on high demand. No dollar figure was attached to the pause After hours the shares gave back 0.79%
Why it mattersWednesday's numbers are yesterday's brief and the price has now finished absorbing them. The new item is the financing pause. That programme was a way to turn customers who could not afford chips into customers who could. Nvidia books the sale; the buyer's balance sheet carries the debt. Withdrawing it pushes demand back onto what buyers can genuinely fund. That is a slower and more selective source of orders than a vendor credit line. It also tells you Nvidia's lawyers think the arrangement looked circular enough to attract regulators.
Already priced in?The session move is settled and it is a full reaction to Wednesday's report, not to Thursday's news. Yesterday's edition quoted +6.48% premarket and called it provisional. The open settled it higher, at +8.74%. The financing report landed after the close, and the 0.79% after-hours give-back is the only price evidence on it. That is a shrug, not a verdict.
Would flip ifAn antitrust authority opens a formal inquiry into the compute-access model rather than Nvidia quietly reshaping it. That turns a paused programme into a legal proceeding.
Next dateThird-quarter results in November. No confirmed date yet.
● PLTRChart+4.75% Thursday close · -0.62% after hours
Palantir rose 4.75% with no company announcement dated 27 August, the second-largest gain of the twelve.
Major move · sector, not company · no event dated 27 August
Closed $185.93, +4.75%, on 131% of average volume The nearest dated company event is 25 August. The Maven Smart System became a formal Pentagon programme of record, with up to $2.30bn of funding over five years. The original 2024 award was up to $480m, lifted to a $1.3bn ceiling in 2025 Palantir has said the programme is tracking toward a $1bn annual revenue run rate. That was reported on 26 August and is not new in the past 24 hours Nothing was filed or announced on 27 August
Why it mattersThis is the AI complex repricing on Nvidia's forecast, and Palantir moves with it. The company-specific thing worth holding on to is older: a programme of record is budgeted rather than competed for each year. Budgeted revenue is worth more per dollar than awarded revenue, because it recurs without a new procurement. Investors pay a higher multiple for the same sales. That change happened on 25 August and is already in the price.
Already priced in?There is no 27 August news to price. Treat the 4.75% as sector beta on a day the AI complex rallied hard, not as a Palantir event.
Would flip ifThe Pentagon publishes an obligated dollar figure against the programme of record rather than a ceiling. A ceiling is permission to spend; an obligation is spending.
Next dateThird-quarter results in early November.
● INTCChart+4.36% Thursday close · -1.08% after hours
Intel rose 4.36% with the semiconductor complex and announced nothing on 27 August.
Major move · sector, not company · no event dated 27 August
Closed $92.09, +4.36%, the third-largest gain of the twelve. Volume was 105% of average Intel sits 35.31% below its 52-week high, the widest gap to a 52-week high of the twelve No filing, contract or guidance change was dated 27 August The Apple foundry story recirculated on 26 August. The talks were first reported in May 2026, and the White House described the arrangement in June. It is not news from the past 24 hours
Why it mattersThe widest gap to a 52-week high on this list is exactly why Intel moves most on sector sentiment. It is the cheapest claim on a semiconductor recovery here, and the cheapest claim rises fastest when the recovery looks more likely. Nvidia's forecast made it look more likely. None of that changes Intel's own capacity, yields or customer list, which are the things that decide whether the foundry business earns anything.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price. The 4.36% is the sector. Note the after-hours give-back of 1.08%, the third-largest after-hours fall of the twelve, which fits a move that came from sentiment rather than from Intel.
Would flip ifApple or another named customer commits volume to 18A in writing, with a dollar figure. That converts foundry from a hope into a backlog.
Next dateThird-quarter results in late October.
● NBISChart+2.13% Thursday close · -1.14% after hours
Nebius rose with the AI infrastructure complex during the session, then fell after hours on the report that Nvidia paused its revenue-share financing.
Closed $218.48, +2.13%, on 70% of average volume, the second-lightest volume of the twelve behind Robinhood After hours -1.14%, the second-largest after-hours fall of the twelve No Nebius announcement was dated 27 August. Its $5.75bn convertible note closed on 24 August and was covered then Nebius sits 27.14% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersNebius is the clearest case on this list of a company that buys Nvidia chips with borrowed money. The programme Nvidia has paused was built for exactly that customer, swapping credit support for a share of future revenue. Take it away and the cost of adding capacity goes up, because the alternative is convertible notes at the market's price rather than the supplier's. Cost of capital is the input that sets how fast Nebius can sign new contracts, so this reaches its growth rate rather than its margins.
Already priced in?Barely. The session close came before the report and is a sector move. The 1.14% after-hours fall is thin evidence on low volume, and the open will settle it.
Would flip ifNebius states it never used the Nvidia programme, or names a replacement facility with a rate attached.
Next dateThird-quarter results in November.
● TSLAChart+2.60% Thursday close · -0.06% after hours
Tesla rose 2.60% with no announcement, filing or contract dated 27 August.
Notable move · sector, not company · no event dated 27 August
Closed $354.81, +2.60%, on 85% of average volume The Nevada Semi factory plan was reported on 25 August. The China door-handle recall of about 2.946 million vehicles was ordered on 24 August. Both were covered here at the time Nothing was dated 27 August
Why it mattersTesla trades as an AI name on days like this, so a broad rally in compute reaches it without any vehicle news. That is worth naming rather than dressing up: nothing changed in deliveries, pricing or margin on Thursday. Tesla sits 28.87% below its 52-week high, so it has room to move on sentiment alone.
Already priced in?No company news exists to price. The 2.60% is sector.
Would flip ifTesla attaches a date and a price to a robotaxi service in a new state, or discloses the cost of the China recall remedy.
Next date25 September, the China door-handle remedy programme begins.
● MSFTChart+1.75% Thursday close · +0.27% after hours
Microsoft rose 1.75% after announcing a long-term collaboration with the Saudi AI firm HUMAIN on 26 August. No financial terms were disclosed.
Notable move · company · a partnership with no figure
Closed $505.06, +1.75%, on 131% of average volume The HUMAIN agreement covers bringing HUMAIN's Arabic ALLAM models into Microsoft's AI ecosystem. It was announced on 26 August, so it falls just outside a strict 24-hour window No contract value, revenue commitment or capacity figure was published Microsoft sits 8.79% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersA partnership without a number cannot be modelled, so it should not move the price much, and it did not. What it does establish is a distribution channel into a state-funded AI programme. That sort of arrangement shows up in Azure's growth rate years out, not in the next quarter. Azure's growth rate is the number Microsoft's price is set on, so the announcement is worth watching for a follow-up with a figure attached.
Already priced in?The 1.75% is mostly the same AI rally that lifted the rest of the list. With no dollar figure, there is nothing specific to price.
Would flip ifMicrosoft or HUMAIN publishes a committed spend or a capacity figure in gigawatts.
Next dateFirst-quarter fiscal 2027 results in late October.
● AMZNChart-1.54% Thursday close · +0.07% after hours
Amazon fell 1.54% on a day the AI complex rallied, with nothing announced or filed on 27 August.
Notable move · sector, not company · the buyer side of the rally
Closed $256.26, -1.54%, the largest fall of the twelve. Volume was 114% of average Amazon and Marvell were the only two of the twelve that fell more than 1% while Nvidia rose The 2 million additional GPU commitment was disclosed on Nvidia's call on 26 August and covered here yesterday. Amazon has still published no dollar figure for it The $220bn 2026 capital spending target dates to the second-quarter call in July, raised from $200bn
Why it mattersAmazon is on the paying side of the number that lifted everyone else. Nvidia's forecast is a revenue line for suppliers and a cost line for the four hyperscalers on this list. Capital spending on that scale reduces free cash flow, the cash left after building and buying. That figure is what Amazon's valuation has always rested on. The market spent Thursday deciding the bill is real and the return on it is still unproven.
Already priced in?This is a settled close and the direction is the information. Falling 1.54% on a day the sector rose is the market pricing a cost, not a company event.
Would flip ifAmazon publishes an AWS backlog figure, meaning revenue already under contract, large enough to cover the capital spending. That turns a bill into an order book.
Next dateThird-quarter results in late October.
● GOOGLChart-0.39% Thursday close · 0.00% after hours
Bloomberg reported on 27 August that the Federal Trade Commission is preparing a possible lawsuit over how YouTube suspends user accounts.
Minor move · company · regulatory, no figure attached
Closed $340.65, -0.39%, on 113% of average volume The FTC has been examining YouTube since 2025. The question is whether users were misled by the stated content policies into signing up, then had posts removed or accounts suspended This is a consumer-protection theory, not an antitrust one. No case has been filed and no penalty figure exists Alphabet also disclosed no new buyback authorisation on 27 August
Why it mattersConsumer-protection cases rarely produce fines that matter to a company this size. What they can produce is a consent order dictating how moderation works, and moderation rules decide how much content is eligible to carry advertising. Advertising inventory is the thing Alphabet sells, so the risk here is to the volume of sellable YouTube views rather than to a one-off payment. It is a slow risk and Thursday's price treats it that way.
Already priced in?Not really priced at all. The Bloomberg report circulated late on 27 August, so the 0.39% session fall largely predates it. The after-hours move was flat. Treat the news as unpriced going into Friday.
Would flip ifThe FTC actually files, and the complaint seeks structural remedies on moderation rather than damages.
Next dateNo hearing or filing date is set. Third-quarter results in late October.
● METAChart-0.87% Thursday close · -0.02% after hours
Meta drifted 0.87% lower with no new announcement, the day after settling the 29-state child-addiction case for up to $16.68bn.
Minor move · company · the settlement, one day on
Closed $571.10, -0.87%, on 91% of average volume, down from 191% on Wednesday Nothing was announced or filed on 27 August Meta sits 27.78% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersVolume falling from nearly twice average to below average in one day is the useful signal. The settlement is now absorbed, and the screen-time limits it imposes will show up in engagement figures rather than in a payment. That means the next quarterly report, not the legal docket, is where the cost becomes visible.
Already priced in?Yes, priced on Wednesday. Thursday's 0.87% is drift on ordinary volume.
Would flip ifMeta quantifies the engagement effect of the screen-time caps in its next results.
Next dateThird-quarter results in late October.
Read-through
Two companies raised their forecasts this week. The market paid for one and charged the other.
The asymmetry, and it is the useful thing today. Nvidia and Marvell both beat, both raised, and both pointed at the same demand. Nvidia closed +8.74%. Marvell fell 7.64% after hours. The difference is not the businesses, it is what each price already assumed. Nvidia forecast 70% growth for fiscal 2028 against an analyst average near 44%, so the forecast beat the expectation by a wide margin. Marvell lifted fiscal 2028 by $1.5bn, to $18bn, into a share price that had already risen about 178% this year on the Google custom-chip agreement. Same direction, opposite result. A raise is only good news measured against the raise already in the price.
The financing pause reaches the smaller buyers, not the large ones. Nvidia's paused revenue-share programme funded AI cloud companies that cannot pay cash. On this list that is NBIS, which fell 1.14% after hours, the second-largest after-hours fall of the twelve. It does not reach AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL or META, who fund their own chips. Watch whether Nvidia's forward numbers depend on the customers who needed the credit.
Supplier up, buyer down, again. The same split as yesterday held through the session. NVDA +8.74%, INTC +4.36% and NBIS +2.13% against AMZN -1.54%, META -0.87% and GOOGL -0.39%. MSFT +1.75% is the exception on the buyer side, and its own partnership news explains part of that. Eight of the twelve rose. Seven of the twelve traded above their average volume.
Nothing material
AAPL · HOOD, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and the gaps in this edition
Nothing material.AAPL +0.36% and HOOD +1.12% had no announcement, filing or contract dated 27 August. Apple's 9 September event and the 1 September chief executive handover to John Ternus were confirmed on 26 August and covered here yesterday. Robinhood's last dated items are its UK crypto authorisation and its closed-end fund plans, both earlier in August. Robinhood traded on 64% of average volume, the lightest volume of the twelve.
Excluded as old. Intel's Apple foundry talks were first reported in May 2026 and recirculated on 26 August. Marvell's Google agreement was signed 29 July and the $12.2bn warrant issued 19 August. Neither the deal nor its $120bn vesting ceiling is news, though it is why Thursday's raise disappointed. Amazon's $220bn capital spending target dates to July. Nebius's $5.75bn convertible closed 24 August. Palantir's Maven programme-of-record status dates to 25 August. Microsoft's HUMAIN collaboration is 26 August and carries no figure.
Gaps, stated plainly. First, and it shapes everything above. The extended-hours feed returned no premarket prices this morning. Every extended figure in this edition is stamped 19:59 ET on 27 August, which is the after-hours close, for all twelve tickers. There is no premarket read in this brief and none is implied. Second, sec.gov is blocked by this environment. It returned HTTP 403 to this repository's own filings fetch overnight, so no 8-K, 13-D/G or Form 4 was read directly. Marvell's release could not be fetched from its own investor site or from Business Wire, both blocked here. Its figures come from three independent reports that agree on every line. Third, the checker was extended this morning to hold after-hours superlatives against an after-hours column. Without it, a claim about Thursday evening would have been tested against Thursday's session. Fourth, charts refreshed cleanly: all twelve daily series are current to 27 August. Six tickers redrew their shorter intraday panels from cache after the fetch was throttled, which affects the zoomed views only, not the daily chart or any figure above.
Earnings within 14 days
28 AugMacro Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole
1 SepAAPL John Ternus becomes chief executive, Tim Cook becomes executive chairman
8 SepMacro Canada's matching tariffs on US goods are due to start
9 SepAAPL launch event, Steve Jobs Theater, 10:00 PT. Foldable iPhone expected
17 SepMacro FOMC decision, 17 to 18 September
25 SepTSLA the China door-handle remedy programme begins
6 OctMRVL investor day. Custom-silicon ramp timing is the question
1 Jan 2027TSLA China's GB 48001-2026 bans fully hidden door handles
Nvidia's quarter was good and its forecast was the event. Revenue was $96.2bn against about $92.2bn expected, and this quarter is guided to $108.0bn against about $104.2bn. Finance chief Colette Kress then said fiscal 2028 revenue will grow 70%, against an average analyst estimate near 44%. NVDA is +6.48% premarket, the largest of the twelve.
Meta settled the 29-state child-addiction case for up to $16.68bn, and gave back most of the relief by the close. It opened +3.58%, touched +4.07%, and closed +1.07% on 191% of average volume, the heaviest of the twelve. The settlement caps teenage screen time, and screen time is the inventory Meta sells.
Amazon committed to 2 million more Nvidia GPUs, and let Nvidia announce it. The disclosure came on Nvidia's call, with no dollar figure. Suppliers rose premarket and buyers fell: NBIS +6.41%, MRVL +4.89%, INTC +2.67%, against AMZN -0.30%, GOOGL -0.38% and MSFT -1.17%.
Market-wide
July PCE landed at 08:30 ET on 26 August. Core PCE, the gauge the Fed watches most, rose 0.2% on the month and 3.3% against a year earlier, both in line. Headline PCE rose 3.7% against about 3.6% expected. Core was unchanged from June, so the hoped-for slip to 3.2% did not arrive. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.65%, from a 20-month high of 4.75% on 21 August
The inflation number changed nobody's mind, which is why the tape did nothingA long bond yield is the rate at which investors discount profits expected years away. A core reading that holds flat leaves that rate exactly where it is. Yields first fell on the monthly figures, then ticked back up on the hotter headline annual rate. The gauge agrees: QQQ closed +0.09% and SPY +0.02%, a gap of 0.07pp, which is no gap at all. Six of the twelve rose and six fell. The session was a waiting room for Nvidia.
Nvidia forecast that the five largest cloud buyers will spend nearly $800bn on capital projects in 2026 and $1.3tn in 2027. Its call also put cloud industry backlog above $2 trillion. Some coverage reported that backlog as Nvidia's own; the call transcript describes it as the industry's, and that wording is used here
A supplier publishing its customers' budgets is an order book, not researchThis is the number that splits the list in two. For MRVL, NBIS and INTC that spending is revenue, and all three are up premarket without announcing anything. For AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL and META, four of the five buyers implied, it is a bill, and all four are down premarket. Rising capex reaches fast-growing tech through free cash flow (cash left after spending), which is what investors have been marking hyperscalers down for since July.
Items · sorted by size
● NVDAChart-1.59% Wednesday close · +6.48% premarket, provisional
Nvidia reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2bn on 26 August after the close, guided this quarter to $108.0bn, and forecast 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028.
Major move · company · the forecast, not the quarter
Revenue $96.22bn, up 106% against a year earlier and 18% on the quarter, against about $92.2bn expected Data Center revenue $89.0bn, up 117% against a year earlier, against about $85.7bn expected. Net income $59.7bn, up 126% Non-GAAP earnings $2.22 a share against $2.09 expected. GAAP $2.46. Gross margin 75.0% on both measures Third-quarter guidance $108.0bn plus or minus 2%, against about $104.2bn expected. Gross margin guided to 74.0% plus or minus 50 basis points Finance chief Colette Kress said fiscal 2028 revenue growth will reach 70%, against an average analyst estimate near 44%. Jensen Huang said supply allows 70% and demand is higher Gross margin should bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter on memory costs. It recovers to 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028 The outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. Less than 1% of Data Center revenue went to China in the quarter
Why it mattersThe 2028 number is what changed, because it moves the argument from one quarter to the shape of two years. Investors had been paying for a decelerating growth rate, and a growth rate is what sets how many years of expansion they will fund. Against that sits a real cost: memory prices take roughly three points off gross margin by the fourth quarter. That is the first time the AI build-out has appeared inside Nvidia's own numbers as an input cost rather than as demand.
Already priced in?The sequence is the whole story. NVDA fell 1.59% in Wednesday's session, before the report. It then fell about 1.3% in the first half hour after the release, and only turned positive once the call started. After-hours closed +4.71% and premarket is +6.48%. So the market paid for the forecast, not for the quarter. Premarket is thin and provisional, and the open will settle it.
Would flip ifThe 70% is recast as a supply ceiling rather than a demand commitment. Huang put supply first and demand above it; if that ordering reverses, the forecast becomes a limit.
Next dateThird-quarter results in November. Before that, MRVL tonight tests the same demand read.
Meta agreed on 26 August to pay up to $16.68bn to settle claims by 29 state attorneys general. They said Facebook and Instagram were built to addict children.
Notable move · company · the day's asymmetry
Up to $16.68bn, agreed mid-trial in federal court in Oakland. The total could reach about $17.1bn if TikTok and YouTube also settle About 70% of the money funds youth online-safety and mental-health programmes, paid to states over ten years California is set to receive $1.5bn to $2.1bn, New York up to $1.15bn Meta must add daily time caps and overnight limits for teenage users, tighten age checks and expand parental controls. It denied wrongdoing Opened $590.44, up 3.58%, touched $593.27, up 4.07%, then closed $576.14, up 1.07% Volume was 191% of average, the heaviest of the twelve by a wide margin. Its intraday range of 5.57% was second only to Palantir's 5.68%
Why it mattersSpread over ten years the payment is close to $1.7bn a year, which Meta covers from a single quarter's cash. So the money is not the constraint. The product terms are. Time caps and overnight limits reduce teenage engagement, and engagement is the inventory Meta sells to advertisers. Clearing a legal overhang raises what investors will pay per dollar of earnings, while capping usage lowers the earnings. Wednesday's tape is those two forces cancelling.
Already priced in?Over-priced at the open, then re-priced by the close, inside one settled session. Three quarters of the peak gain was gone by the bell, on the heaviest volume of the twelve. That is not indifference, it is a crowd changing its mind with size behind it. Premarket -0.35% adds nothing.
Would flip ifThe court approves the settlement without the engagement limits, or Meta quantifies the advertising impact as immaterial at third-quarter results.
Next dateCourt approval, no date set. Third-quarter results, late October.
● AMZNChart-0.30% Wednesday close · -0.30% premarket
Amazon committed to 2 million more Nvidia GPUs for AWS, disclosed on Nvidia's earnings call on 26 August rather than by Amazon itself.
Minor move · company · announced by its supplier
2 million additional accelerators, Blackwell Ultra, Rubin and Rubin Ultra, deployed from this quarter through the second quarter of fiscal 2029, alongside Vera CPUs That roughly triples a commitment that began at more than 1 million GPUs agreed about five months ago, taking the total near 3 million Neither company gave a dollar value. Press estimates put it in the tens of billions at current unit prices Amazon's 2026 capital spending was already tracking near $200bn Closed $260.28, -0.30%, on 67% of average volume. Premarket -0.30%
Why it mattersOne sentence is revenue for Nvidia and cash out of the door for Amazon, which is why only one of the two is up premarket. The question for Amazon is not whether AWS can fill the racks. It is the gap between paying for silicon now and billing for it across years. Free cash flow (cash left after spending) is what shrinks first, and it is the line that has been punishing hyperscalers since July. That Amazon let its supplier make the announcement is itself the tell.
Already priced in?It cannot be. The news landed on a call that started after the close, so Wednesday's -0.30% happened before it. Premarket -0.30% is flat, provisional and thin. The open is the first genuine read.
Would flip ifAmazon puts a dollar figure and a matching contracted-backlog number (revenue already under contract) against it at third-quarter results. A commitment with customer contracts behind it is an investment, not a bet.
Next dateThird-quarter results, late October.
● NBISChart-3.62% Wednesday close · +6.41% premarket, provisional
Nebius rose 6.41% premarket on Nvidia's forecast, after falling 3.62% on Wednesday, the largest decline of the twelve. No company announcement is dated 26 August beyond routine meeting results.
Major move · sector, not company · supplier read-through
Closed $213.93, -3.62%, the largest decline of the twelve, on 37% of average volume, the lightest of the twelve Premarket +6.41%, second only to Nvidia's +6.48% The only Nebius item dated 26 August is confirmation that all resolutions at its 25 August annual general meeting passed. That is routine Its $5.75bn convertible closed on 24 August and its 5GW end-2026 contracted-power target came with second-quarter results. Neither is new The stock is 28.66% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersNebius has no price of its own this morning. It buys the hardware Nvidia has just guided on, so a supplier's demand forecast is the nearest thing it has to guidance of its own. What a 70% growth number does for a neocloud is retire one specific fear. That fear is billions of borrowed money committed to assets bought into a slowing market. That is balance-sheet risk being removed, not a revenue line changing.
Already priced in?The entire move is premarket, and it is provisional. Nebius also traded 37% of average volume on Wednesday, the lightest of the twelve, so that session is a weak vote too. Wednesday's fall landed before the results. Treat nothing here as settled until the open.
Would flip ifNvidia's supply commentary implies neoclouds queue behind the hyperscalers for Rubin. Allocation, not demand, is the constraint that binds Nebius.
Next dateThird-quarter results in November.
● MRVLChart+1.97% Wednesday close · +4.89% premarket, provisional
Marvell rose 4.89% premarket on Nvidia's forecast and reports second-quarter results today after the close.
Major move · read-through · reports tonight
Closed $245.11, +1.97%, on 68% of average volume. Premarket +4.89% Guidance is $2.70bn plus or minus 5%, with non-GAAP earnings of $0.93 plus or minus $0.05 a share Consensus sits near $2.71bn and $0.93, implying about 35% revenue and 39% earnings growth against a year earlier Management has pointed to $3bn of quarterly revenue in the third quarter, one full quarter ahead of its previous plan The Google custom-silicon agreement was signed 29 July and the $12.2bn warrant, vesting toward a $120bn ceiling through fiscal 2033, was issued 18 August. Neither is news from the past 24 hours
Why it mattersConfirming the $3bn quarter is worth more than any beat on the quarter just gone. It pulls the revenue curve forward a period, and that compounds into the fiscal 2028 line. Nvidia's hyperscaler spending forecast is the pot Marvell sells into. So tonight tests something narrower. Does custom silicon built for one buyer take share of that budget, or merely ride it? Taking share is what justifies the multiple.
Already priced in?Partly, and the premarket is not about Marvell. +4.89% is Nvidia's guidance reaching a stock that has not reported yet. Wednesday's +1.97% also came before Nvidia's numbers. Both are provisional and neither is a verdict on tonight.
Would flip ifThird-quarter guidance lands below $3bn. That undoes the pull-forward management has already promised.
Palantir rose 2.76%, the largest gain of the twelve, with no company announcement dated 26 August.
Notable move · no company event · second unexplained session
Closed $177.50, +2.76%, the largest gain of the twelve Its intraday range of 5.68% was the widest of the twelve, running from $168.90 to $178.49 Volume was 91% of average, a shade below normal This reverses Tuesday's 1.80% fall, which this brief flagged as unexplained. Premarket -0.23%
Why it mattersTwo large moves in opposite directions on two consecutive sessions, with no announcement behind either, is positioning rather than information. It swung nearly ten dollars intraday on unremarkable participation. Wide swings with ordinary turnout mean traders disagreeing during the day, not investors revaluing the business. Nothing in the revenue, the backlog or the contract book changed this week, so nothing about what the company is worth has changed either.
Already priced in?There is nothing to price. Wednesday's settled close simply gave Tuesday's fall back. Premarket -0.23% is flat.
Would flip ifPalantir announces a US government award of size comparable to the FAA work it lost in June.
Robinhood fell 3.17% as bitcoin dropped back below $80,000, with no company announcement dated 26 August.
Major move · crypto, not company
Closed $108.54, -3.17%. In cash that returns $3.55 of Tuesday's $8.47 gain, about two fifths of it Bitcoin fell more than 2% and lost the $80,000 mark after touching about $81,000. Ether fell 2% below $2,500 About $600m of crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, split roughly evenly between longs and shorts Volume was 61% of average, below normal. The stock is 29.46% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThis is the coin, not the company. The distinction matters because Robinhood is paid on how much its customers trade, not on what bitcoin is worth. A two-day round trip like this revalues sentiment towards the stock and leaves the revenue line untouched. A crowd feeling better about crypto is the least durable reason to pay more per dollar of earnings. Wednesday showed how fast that reverses.
Already priced in?This is Wednesday's settled close and it is a crypto move. Robinhood's extended-hours quote came back stamped 19:59 ET Wednesday, so there is no premarket read here, only an after-hours -0.12%. The open is the first new information.
Would flip ifAugust operating data shows crypto notional volumes rising with the coin. July's fell 33% on the month while the price climbed.
Alphabet fell 1.43% with no company announcement dated 26 August, on slightly above-average volume.
Notable move · no company event
Closed $342.00, -1.43%, on 101% of average volume, a shade above its own norm Three of the twelve traded above their own average volume on Wednesday: Meta, Nvidia and Alphabet. Alphabet is the one of those three with no announcement dated 26 August Premarket -0.38%. The stock is 16.30% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersAlphabet is one of the four buyers named in the read-through below. It fell on a day its own supplier raised the forecast for what it will spend. That is the capex trade working as it has since July. Money committed to compute is marked down as lost free cash flow first. It is marked up as cloud revenue much later. Volume a shade above normal on a day with no Alphabet news means a steady reweighting rather than a reaction.
Already priced in?Wednesday's close is settled and no news explains it, so read it as the capex trade rather than a company event. Premarket -0.38% continues it mildly and is provisional.
Would flip ifAlphabet shows cloud revenue accelerating faster than capital spending at third-quarter results. That converts the spending from a drag into a return.
Next dateThird-quarter results, late October.
● INTCChart+0.87% Wednesday close · +2.67% premarket, provisional
Intel rose 2.67% premarket on Nvidia's forecast. Its only item dated 26 August was a fireside chat by finance chief David Zinsner at Deutsche Bank's technology conference, with no new figures given.
Notable move · sector, not company
Closed $88.24, +0.87%, on 75% of average volume. Premarket +2.67%, behind Nvidia, Nebius and Marvell The $23.0bn equity raise at $95 a share, upsized from $15bn, priced on 10 August and is not news from the past 24 hours At $88.24 Intel sits 38.01% below its 52-week high, the largest gap of the twelve, and below the price its August buyers paid
Why it mattersIntel is the cheapest way on this list to express a view on total chip demand. That is why a rising tide reaches it without any company news. The gap between the $95 raise price and Wednesday's close is the more useful number: new shareholders are underwater, and that supply overhangs any rally. Nothing about Intel's own foundry economics changed on Wednesday.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price. The premarket move is Nvidia's, borrowed, and it is provisional.
Would flip ifIntel names an external foundry customer with committed wafer volumes. That is the only thing that reprices the business rather than the sector.
Next dateThird-quarter results, late October.
● AAPLChart+1.15% Wednesday close · -1.03% premarket
Apple confirmed on 26 August that its next launch event is 9 September, the first under John Ternus, who becomes chief executive on 1 September.
Minor move · company · a date, not a number
The event is 9 September, 10:00 PT at the Steve Jobs Theater. Reports expect the iPhone 18 Pro, 18 Pro Max and a foldable model No product, price, specification or volume figure was disclosed by Apple Closed $313.45, +1.15%. Premarket -1.03%, the second-weakest of the twelve The stock is 9.03% below its 52-week high, the smallest gap of the twelve
Why it mattersA date is not a number, and this brief treats it as one line rather than an event. What it does set is the date Apple must attach prices and availability to a foldable phone. That is its first genuinely new hardware category in years. Until then there is nothing to model. The smallest gap to a 52-week high on this list means Apple carries the least room for disappointment of the twelve.
Already priced in?There is nothing to price yet. Wednesday's +1.15% is a settled close on a quiet day. Premarket -1.03% is the capex-buyer read described below, not a reaction to the invitation.
Would flip ifApple prices the foldable above expectations on 9 September and names launch volumes. That would turn a date into a forecast.
Next date1 September, Ternus becomes chief executive. 9 September, the event.
Read-through
One earnings call reached six other tickers on this list, and sorted them into sellers and buyers.
The supplier side. Nvidia's fiscal 2028 forecast is a demand signal for everything downstream of it. NBIS +6.41%, MRVL +4.89% and INTC +2.67% premarket, and not one of the three announced anything. Nvidia also estimates its five largest cloud buyers spend nearly $800bn in 2026 and $1.3tn in 2027. Read that as an order book rather than research. It is a seller describing its customers' budgets.
The buyer side. The same forecast is a bill. AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL and META are four of the five buyers implied. All four are lower premarket: AMZN -0.30%, META -0.35%, GOOGL -0.38%, MSFT -1.17%, the weakest of the twelve. Suppliers up and buyers down is the clearest thing on the tape this morning. It is exactly what a raised capex forecast should do to a list like this one.
The asymmetry. Two companies disclosed a large future obligation on the same day and were treated in opposite ways. Amazon's 2 million-GPU commitment carried no dollar figure and was announced by its supplier, on its supplier's call. Meta put an exact $16.68bn on its own liability, in its own settlement. Three quarters of the relief rally vanished by the close, on the heaviest volume of the twelve. Precision cost Meta a day. Vagueness has cost Amazon nothing yet, and that gap is the thing to watch when Amazon reports in October.
Nothing material
MSFT · TSLA, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and the gaps in this edition
Nothing material.MSFT +0.95% and TSLA -1.26% had no company announcement dated 26 August. Microsoft is the weakest of the twelve premarket at -1.17%, which the read-through above explains. Tesla's China door-handle recall of about 2.946 million vehicles was ordered on 24 August and covered here then; nothing has been added since.
Excluded as old. Marvell's Google custom-silicon agreement was signed 29 July and the $12.2bn warrant issued 18 August. So neither the deal nor its $120bn vesting ceiling is news from the past 24 hours. It dominated Wednesday's pre-earnings coverage all the same. Nebius's $5.75bn convertible closed 24 August and its 5GW contracted-power target came with second-quarter results. Intel's $23.0bn equity raise priced 10 August. Palantir's $875m FAA loss still dates to 22 June.
Gaps, stated plainly.sec.gov is blocked by this environment. It returned HTTP 403 to this repository's own filings fetch overnight. No Form 4 or 8-K was read directly this morning. Every figure above comes from company statements and press coverage, cross-checked wherever two sources exist. One figure is genuinely disputed: the call transcript describes cloud industry backlog above $2 trillion, while some coverage reported it as Nvidia's own backlog. The transcript wording is used here. Robinhood's extended-hours quote is stamped 19:59 ET Wednesday, so it has no premarket read, as in the last edition. Charts refreshed cleanly, with all twelve daily series current to 26 August.
Earnings within 14 days
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27 after the close. Guidance $2.70bn plus or minus 5%, EPS $0.93 plus or minus $0.05
28 AugMacro Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole
1 SepAAPL John Ternus becomes chief executive, Tim Cook becomes executive chairman
8 SepMacro Canada's matching tariffs on US goods are due to start
9 SepAAPL launch event, Steve Jobs Theater, 10:00 PT. Foldable iPhone expected
17 SepMacro FOMC decision, 17 to 18 September
25 SepTSLA the China door-handle remedy programme begins
1 Jan 2027TSLA China's GB 48001-2026 bans fully hidden door handles
Wed 26 Aug 2026HOOD, NBIS, MRVL, NVDA, PLTR, META
The 30-second version
Tuesday reversed Monday almost exactly, and the bond market did it. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.625% from 4.71%, and eight of the twelve rose against five on Monday. Chip funds led at about +1.65% against +0.94% for broad technology, the mirror image of Monday. Only PLTR fell more than 0.4%.
NVDA reports tonight, and Tuesday was the market getting out of its own way. It rose 2.19% on the heaviest volume of the twelve, ending a seven-session slide worth 7.5%, its longest since 2022. Guidance was $91.0bn plus or minus 2% and consensus sits near $92bn. July core PCE lands first, at 08:30 ET today.
Two of the loudest stories on the tape yesterday were months old. The $875m FAA contract PLTR is said to have lost was awarded to Air Space Intelligence on 22 June. The INTC and AAPL chip-making talks were reported in May and described by President Trump on 18 June. Neither is news from the past 24 hours.
Market-wide
The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 7 basis points to 4.625%, from 4.71% on Monday. The two-year fell with it. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped more than 3%. The S&P 500 closed +0.32%, the Nasdaq Composite +0.66%, and the Dow added 160 points
One number moved, and it moved everything on this listA long bond yield is the rate at which investors discount profits expected years from now. Monday's edition set out how a rising yield marks distant earnings down hardest. Tuesday ran the same machinery backwards. The gauge agrees rather than contradicts: QQQ closed +0.62% against SPY at +0.32%, a gap of 0.30pp in favour of the growth index. Only Nebius had a company announcement in the window big enough to explain its own price.
July core PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most, is published today at 08:30 ET. Consensus is 3.2% to 3.3% against a year earlier, after 3.3% in June. Monday's edition noted CME's FedWatch putting the odds of a September rate rise near 42%. Tuesday's fall in oil takes one input off the inflation case
This is the number that decides whether Tuesday holdsTuesday's rally was borrowed from a single afternoon in the bond market, not earned by any company on this list. A core reading at or below 3.2% pushes the September hike question further away and lets the discount rate stay lower, which is worth more to PLTR, NBIS and MRVL than to AAPL or MSFT. A reading above 3.3% hands Monday's session straight back. It lands ten hours before Nvidia reports, so today carries both risks in sequence.
Robinhood rose 8.17%, the largest gain of the twelve, as bitcoin cleared $80,000, with no company announcement dated 25 August.
Major move · sector, not company · crypto beta
Closed $112.09, +8.17%, the largest gain of the twelve. That recovers Monday's $4.51 loss and adds $3.96 on top Its intraday range of 8.61% was the widest of the twelve, almost twice the next widest. Volume was 113% of average Bitcoin passed $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, touching $81,257 before easing back to about $78,800 Robinhood's own crypto notional volume was $10.9bn in July, down 33% from June At $112.09 the stock is 27.15% below its 52-week high of $153.86
Why it mattersThe gap between those last two numbers is the whole point. Robinhood is paid on how much its customers trade, not on what bitcoin is worth, and in July those two lines moved in opposite directions. So a session like Tuesday's reprices sentiment towards the stock rather than anything in the revenue line. What that buys is a higher multiple resting on a crowd's mood, which is the least durable reason for investors to pay more per dollar of earnings.
Already priced in?This is Tuesday's settled close, and it is a crypto move, not a company one. The extended-hours quote available to this run was stamped late on Tuesday rather than this morning, so there is no premarket read for Robinhood in this edition. Treat the open as the first new information.
Would flip ifAugust monthly operating data shows crypto notional volumes still falling while the coin rises. That would confirm the stock and the business have come apart.
Next dateMonthly operating data in mid-September. Third-quarter results, late October, no date confirmed.
Nebius said on 25 August it is the first AI cloud to deploy Nvidia's Groq 3 LPX, three days after closing $5.75bn of convertible notes.
Major move · company · hardware first-mover
Closed $221.97, +5.24%, snapping a six-session slide Nvidia said on 24 August that the Groq 3 LPX is in full production. Nebius is putting it into its Token Factory platform Artificial Analysis benchmarked the part at 3,400 output tokens per second for a single user on Gemma 4 31B, the fastest recorded for that model Each rack couples 256 LPU accelerators with 128GB of on-chip memory and 640 TB/s of scale-up bandwidth Volume was 45% of average, the lightest of the twelve, so this was a thin move. The stock is 25.98% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersRented compute is close to a commodity, and a neocloud that cannot differentiate it competes only on price. Being first to scarce new inference silicon is one of the few ways to escape that, because inference is billed per token generated: faster chips turn directly into more revenue from the same rack, floor space and power contract. That is what the $5.75bn raised last week was for, and it converts a financing story into an operating one much sooner than a datacentre build would.
Already priced in?The rise began in Tuesday's premarket and held to the close, so the tape did react. But it came on the lightest volume of the twelve, which is a weak vote. Premarket this morning is -0.89%, giving part of it back. That is provisional and the open will settle it.
Would flip ifNebius names no committed customer or capacity for the deployment. A first-mover claim with nothing contracted behind it is marketing.
Next dateThird-quarter results in November. Before that, Nvidia tonight prices the hardware Nebius has just committed to buy.
Marvell rose 4.84% with the chip sector and on raised broker targets, two days before results, with no company announcement dated 25 August.
Major move · sector plus target raises · not a company event
Closed $240.38, +4.84%, on 82% of average volume, below normal Semiconductor funds rose about 1.65% against about 0.94% for broad technology, so Marvell ran roughly three times its own sector Guidance for tomorrow's quarter is $2.70bn plus or minus 5%, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.93 plus or minus $0.05. Consensus sits near $2.72bn and $0.93, implying about 35% revenue and 39% earnings growth against a year earlier Options price a post-earnings move of about 13.6% in either direction, roughly three times Tuesday's rise The stock is 27.13% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersBroker target changes are not information about the business, and a stock that outruns its own sector threefold on below-average volume is being repositioned rather than revalued. The number that decides Thursday is the quarter after next. Management has already pointed at $3bn of quarterly revenue one quarter earlier than its previous plan, and confirming that pulls the entire revenue curve forward. That is worth more to the multiple than any beat on the quarter just gone.
Already priced in?Barely. Using Tuesday's settled close, a 4.84% rise into an event that options price at 13.6% leaves the bulk of the outcome unpriced in either direction. Premarket is +0.67%, provisional and thin.
Would flip ifThird-quarter guidance lands below $3bn. That undoes the pull-forward management has already promised.
Nvidia rose 2.19% on the heaviest volume of the twelve, ending a seven-session slide, and reports today after the close.
Notable move · positioning before results · product milestone
Closed $213.05, +2.19%, on 118% of average volume, the heaviest of the twelve The seven-session slide it ended was worth 7.5% and was its longest since 2022 Results come today after the close. Guidance was $91.0bn plus or minus 2%, and consensus sits near $92bn, about 1% above the midpoint On 24 August Nvidia said its Groq 3 LPX inference part is in full production, benchmarked at 3,400 output tokens per second on a single model. Nebius named itself the first cloud to take it the next day At $213.05 the stock is 9.93% below its 52-week high, the second-smallest gap of the twelve
Why it mattersThe production milestone matters more to the price than one quarter will. Training silicon sells against how many new models are being built, which is a burst of spending that can stop. Inference silicon sells against how much those models are then used, which recurs and grows with adoption. Investors paying today's multiple are paying for growth that outlasts the build-out, so evidence that the second engine is real and has a paying customer supports the multiple in a way a revenue beat cannot.
Already priced in?No. Tuesday's settled close reversed a seven-day slide rather than anticipating a result, and it happened on a day the whole list rose on falling yields. Premarket is +0.38%, which is provisional and tells you nothing about tonight. Monday's edition noted options pricing a 5.4% move for the day after.
Would flip ifOctober-quarter guidance fails to step up from the July quarter. Growth that flattens is the one outcome this multiple does not allow for.
Palantir fell 1.80%, the largest decline of the twelve, on a day when falling yields lifted every comparable stock and nothing new was announced.
Notable move · no new company event · the day's asymmetry
Closed $172.73, -1.80%, the largest decline of the twelve. The next largest was AMZN at -0.39%, so the drop was more than four times the second-worst The $875m FAA contract behind Tuesday's coverage was awarded to Air Space Intelligence on 22 June, a 12-year deal. Palantir and Thales both lost it then Chief executive Alex Karp's $86.06m Form 4 was disclosed 24 August and covered in yesterday's edition. Nothing new was filed Volume was 78% of average, below normal, and the intraday range was 4.44% The stock is 16.76% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe absence of an explanation is the finding. Every other stock on this list priced on distant profits rose when the discount rate fell, and this one went the other way on no fresh news. When a stock stops responding to the input that has been driving it, the people setting its price have changed, and they are weighing something the tape does not show. That is worth flagging precisely because no headline accounts for it.
Already priced in?It moved opposite, which is the flag. Using Tuesday's settled close, Palantir fell while the yield relief that lifted its peers was in force. Premarket is -1.29%, the weakest premarket of the twelve, which is provisional but points the same way.
Would flip ifPalantir announces a US government award of comparable size to the FAA work it lost in June.
Meta rose 1.97% on a second day of drift after Monday's report that it will launch a paid AI agent platform called Hatch.
Notable move · drift on a Monday report · leads premarket
Closed $570.05, +1.97%, after +1.66% on Monday. Volume was 66% of average, well below normal The Information reported on 24 August that Hatch launches within weeks, with a top tier at $199.99 a month. A WhatsApp agent platform is also being prepared Meta has not confirmed the product, the pricing or the timing Premarket this morning is +1.46%, the largest premarket gain of the twelve At $570.05 the stock is 27.91% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersMeta earns almost everything it earns from advertising, and its AI spending has so far been a cost with no separate revenue line attached. A subscription at $199.99 a month would be the first, and subscription income is valued differently from advertising: it recurs, it is not tied to the ad cycle, and it turns the capital spending from a drag into an investment with a visible return. That is a change in what the spending means, not in this year's numbers.
Already priced in?Partly, and the sequence matters. The report landed Monday and the stock has now risen on two consecutive days, both on below-average volume. Premarket +1.46% extends it, but that is provisional and thin, and Meta has confirmed nothing.
Would flip ifMeta launches Hatch without the paid tier, or prices it far below the reported $199.99. The revenue line is the entire point.
Next dateNo launch date announced. Third-quarter results, late October.
Tesla raised Cybertruck prices by $5,000 on two trims, updating its configurator on the night of 24 August without changing any specification.
Minor move · company · pricing
Dual Motor AWD goes to $74,990 from $69,990, a rise of 7.1%. Premium AWD goes to $84,990 from $79,990, a rise of 6.2% The Cyberbeast is unchanged at $99,990. No specification changed on any trim First-half US Cybertruck sales are estimated at 7,263, after a 45% fall in the first quarter Closed $350.25, +0.37%. Premarket is -0.05% The stock is 29.79% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersRaising price into falling volume is a decision about margin rather than a signal about demand. Tesla is taking more gross profit per truck and accepting fewer trucks. On a product selling in the single-digit thousands, neither choice registers in group revenue. What it does say is that Tesla has stopped treating Cybertruck volume as something worth discounting for, which quietly retires it from the growth case investors were once asked to pay for.
Already priced in?There was no reaction to price. Tuesday's +0.37% is the tape. Note the sequence: Monday's -3.83% came before the configurator changed and was the China door-handle recall plus the sector, not this.
Would flip ifTesla reverses the increase or adds incentives within a quarter. That would make it a test rather than a decision.
Next dateThird-quarter deliveries, early October.
Read-through
One chip in full production reaches three tickers on this list, and one Reuters story reaches three more.
The hardware chain. Nvidia said on 24 August that its Groq 3 LPX inference part is in full production. NBIS said the next day it is the first cloud to deploy it. That is one announcement doing two different jobs: for Nvidia it is evidence that inference silicon is a second revenue engine alongside training; for Nebius it is a way to charge above commodity rates for rented compute. MRVL sits on the other side of the same trade, because custom silicon designed for one buyer competes for the budget that catalogue parts like the LPX are winning. All three report or are priced off results within 48 hours.
The cloud chain. Reuters reported this morning, 26 August, that China's Moonshot AI is in talks with MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL to host its Kimi K3 model on Azure, AWS and Google Cloud. Moonshot is said to be seeking up to a 30% share of the revenue such services generate. Nothing is signed and the talks are unresolved on revenue splits, data access and token auditing. If one is done it would be the first large revenue-sharing pact between a Chinese AI developer and a US cloud, and it would set the rate at which every hyperscaler pays for third-party models. US officials have accused Moonshot of copying Anthropic's work and of acquiring Nvidia chips illegally, so this carries political risk the three buyers will price.
The asymmetry.MRVL rose 4.84% on raised broker targets and NVDA rose 2.19% on a production milestone and its own imminent results. The smaller move belongs to the company with the harder evidence. Marvell ran roughly three times its own sector on below-average volume, which is positioning ahead of Thursday. Nvidia ran on the heaviest volume of the twelve. Volume is the part of that contrast worth keeping.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · MSFT · GOOGL · INTC, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and one gap in this edition
Nothing material.MSFT +0.90%, INTC +0.25%, AAPL -0.14%, GOOGL -0.32% and AMZN -0.39% had no company announcement dated 25 August. Their moves are the yield reversal described above. One routine filing: Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy sold 20,000 shares on 21 August at an average $259.01, about $5.18m, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted in advance. It was disclosed on 25 August and is neutral.
Excluded as old. Three items were prominent on the tape and are not news from the past 24 hours. Palantir's $875m FAA loss dates to the award to Air Space Intelligence on 22 June. The Intel and Apple chip-making talks were reported by the Wall Street Journal in May and described by President Trump on 18 June; neither company has confirmed the scope. Alphabet's $84.75bn equity raise priced on 2 June and its $25bn bond sale came on 6 August. Marvell's Google warrant was 19 August and Nebius's convertible pricing was 19 August, both already covered here.
One gap, stated plainly. Premarket data was available this morning for eleven of the twelve, quoted to about 07:05 ET. Robinhood's extended-hours quote came back stamped late on Tuesday rather than this morning, so it has been left null rather than passed off as a premarket read. Separately, sec.gov remains blocked by this environment, so the Jassy Form 4 and the Groq 3 LPX release are taken from coverage and company statements rather than read from the primary source directly.
Earnings within 14 days
26 AugMacro July core PCE at 08:30 ET. Consensus 3.2% to 3.3% year on year, after 3.3% in June
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27 after the close. Guidance $91.0bn plus or minus 2%, consensus near $92bn
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27 after the close. Guidance $2.70bn plus or minus 5%, EPS $0.93 plus or minus $0.05
28 AugMacro Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole
1 SepAAPL John Ternus becomes chief executive, Tim Cook becomes executive chairman
8 SepMacro Canada's matching tariffs on US goods are due to start
17 SepMacro FOMC decision, 17 to 18 September
25 SepTSLA the China door-handle remedy programme begins
1 Jan 2027TSLA China's GB 48001-2026 bans fully hidden door handles
Tue 25 Aug 2026HOOD, TSLA, NBIS, MRVL, INTC, NVDA, PLTR
The 30-second version
The twelve split five up and seven down, and the line between them was AI hardware.META, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and AAPL rose. The other seven fell. Semiconductor funds dropped about 4% against about 2% for broad technology, so chips sold roughly twice as hard as tech. This was a rotation on rising bond yields, not a set of company events.
Nebius closed a $5.75bn convertible bond sale on 24 August, the day's one hard corporate number. Buyers took their full over-allotment: $450m more of the 2030 notes and $300m more of the 2034s, above the $5.0bn priced on 19 August. A separate swap exchanged $800m of older notes for about 15.8m Class A shares. NBIS fell 3.75%.
The rate market is pricing a September rise, not a cut. CME's FedWatch put the odds of a hike at about 42% this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.71%. July core PCE lands 26 August and Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on 28 August.
Market-wide
September is now a hike question, not a cut question. CME's FedWatch tool put the odds of a rise at about 42% on the morning of 25 August. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.71% and the two-year 4.24%. July core PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most, is published 26 August at 08:30 ET. Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole speech on 28 August
Why a hike risk lands hardest on this listA long bond yield is the rate at which investors discount profits expected years from now. Raise it and distant earnings lose value faster than near ones. Most of what buyers pay for PLTR, NBIS and MRVL is profit that has not arrived. AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL earn most of theirs already. That is the shape Monday took, and the gauge agrees rather than contradicts: QQQ closed -1.00% against SPY at -0.29%, a gap of 0.71pp.
The US launched its Iran sanctions plan and oil fell anyway. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced Operation Economic Outcast on 24 August, after calling it an economic D-Day and saying China would not be exempt. WTI fell about 2.5% to $84.89 and Brent about 2.5% to $92.06. Iran said on 25 August it would retaliate
The move that did not happen is the informationCrude reaches these stocks through inflation, and inflation reaches them through the rate path above. A price spike would have made a September hike more likely. Instead the barrel fell on the day of the toughest sanctions yet announced, which says traders doubt the plan removes much supply from the market. Take one pressure off the inflation case, not the whole case. No revenue line at any of the twelve changed.
Trump said he will put 50% tariffs on Canadian cars, car parts and steel from next year. He announced it on 24 August, after talks collapsed last week and 50% duties took effect on $20bn of Canadian goods. Canada plans matching tariffs from 8 September. Ontario's premier threatened to cut off electricity and critical minerals to the US
Two routes onto this list, one obvious and one notThe obvious route is TSLA, because cross-border parts get dearer, though Tesla assembles in California, Texas and Shanghai rather than Ontario. The route that matters more is the electricity threat. MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN and NBIS are all building data centres whose binding constraint is power, not chips. Ontario exports power into northern border states. A cross-border power fight raises the cost of the scarcest input in the AI build-out.
Robinhood fell 4.17%, the largest decline of the twelve, with no company announcement dated 24 August.
Major move · sector, not company · crypto beta
Closed $103.62, -4.17%, the largest decline of the twelve. In cash terms that hands back $4.51 of Friday's $13.03 gain, about a third of it Bitcoin barely moved, stalling near $77,000 after gaining about 22% last week. The stock fell several times harder than the asset it is meant to track Volume was 108% of average, against 259% on Friday. A far smaller crowd sold than bought At $103.62 the stock sits 32.65% below its 52-week high of $153.86
Why it mattersRobinhood's share price tracks crypto sentiment much more closely than its revenue does. Crypto trading was under 8% of second-quarter revenue and shrinking, while prediction markets brought in more. So a session like Monday's tells you about who owns the stock, not about the business underneath. The lasting cost is to the multiple: the wider the swings, the less investors will pay per dollar of earnings for the same profits.
Already priced in?Using Monday's settled close, this reverses a move that was itself not a reaction to company news. Friday's gain and Monday's loss are one trade in two directions. No premarket data was available to this run, so there is no provisional read to add.
Would flip ifRobinhood discloses August volumes showing crypto revenue growing again. Nothing in the second quarter pointed that way.
Next dateThird-quarter results, late October. No date confirmed yet.
China's regulator published a door-handle recall covering about 4.27m vehicles from eleven carmakers, of which roughly 2.98m are Teslas.
Major move · company · regulatory
Closed $348.95, -3.83%, erasing Friday's +5.14% robotaxi gain and a little more The recall totals about 4.27m vehicles across eleven makers including BAIC, Chery, Dongfeng, Geely, Leapmotor, Xiaomi and Xpeng. It is China's largest ever Tesla's share is about 2.98m Model 3, Model Y, Model S and Model X built between 2018 and 2026, imported and China-made The remedy is a warning label on the manual release plus an over-the-air update that drops the windows automatically. No hardware is replaced
Why it mattersThe cash cost is small, because the fix is a label and a software patch rather than a part. The damage is to the regulatory path. China writes fully hidden door handles out of its rules on 1 January 2027, and a recall on this scale shows the regulator intends to enforce that. Tesla's design language now carries a compliance cost in its second-largest market, and the same rulebook will govern how Beijing treats its autonomy applications.
Already priced in?Partly, and the sequence matters. Tesla filed the recall on 21 August and the stock rose 5.14% that day on the Nevada robotaxi permit. Monday's fall came once the regulator published the full programme, on a day when every high-multiple name fell anyway. The tape alone cannot separate the two.
Would flip ifChina's regulator signals the software remedy satisfies the 2027 rule. That turns a design liability into a closed item.
Next date25 September, when the remedy programme begins.
Nebius closed its convertible bond sale on 24 August at about $5.75bn gross, with the over-allotment taken in full.
Major move · company · debt issuance
$3.45bn of 0.50% notes due 2030 and $2.30bn of 4.50% notes due 2034, $5.75bn in total Buyers exercised their options in full: $450m extra of the 2030s and $300m extra of the 2034s, on top of the $5.0bn priced 19 August A concurrent exchange swapped about $800m of 2029 and 2031 notes for roughly 15.8m Class A shares The revenue base is about $1.4bn, so the raise is roughly four times a year's sales Closed $210.91, -3.75%. Its intraday range of 5.85% was the widest of the twelve. Volume was 54% of average, the lightest volume of the twelve
Why it mattersA neocloud rents out compute it must buy first, so what caps its growth is financing, not demand. Turning $5.75bn of paper into cash lifts that cap for roughly two years of building. The price is paid twice. The 2034 notes cost 4.5% a year in a business that does not yet cover its own capital spending, and the conversion rights plus the 15.8m exchange shares hand today's holders a smaller slice of whatever the build eventually earns.
Already priced in?Using Monday's settled close, not obviously. The closing was expected, since pricing came on 19 August, yet the shares fell 3.75% on the lightest volume of the twelve. Convertible buyers routinely short the stock to hedge, which is the ordinary explanation for weakness at settlement. That is a mechanism, not a verified account of Monday's flow.
Would flip ifNebius announces contracts that put the new capacity under committed demand. The raise is only as good as what it is built against.
Next dateThird-quarter results in November. Before that, Nvidia on 26 August sets the price of what Nebius has to buy.
Marvell fell 3.27% with the semiconductor sector, three days before its results, with no company announcement dated 24 August.
Major move · sector · positioning before results
Closed $229.29, -3.27%, on 78% of average volume Guidance for the quarter reported 27 August is $2.70bn plus or minus 5%, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.93 plus or minus $0.05 Consensus sits at $2.71bn and $0.93, implying 35% revenue growth and 39% earnings growth against a year earlier Management has already pointed to $3bn of quarterly revenue in the following quarter, one quarter earlier than its previous plan The stock is 30.49% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersMarvell is bought for custom AI silicon, chips designed for a single buyer rather than sold from a catalogue. The number that decides Thursday is not this quarter but the next one. Confirming the $3bn guide pulls the whole revenue curve forward a quarter, which is worth more than any beat on the quarter just gone. Failing to confirm it makes the warrant Marvell handed Google look like the price of winning a customer rather than the reward for it.
Already priced in?Monday's fall was the sector, not the company. Chip funds fell about twice as hard as broad technology, and Marvell traded at 78% of average volume. That is investors reducing exposure before an event, not repricing a business.
Would flip ifThird-quarter guidance arrives below $3bn. That undoes the pull-forward management has already promised.
Intel fell 3.12% in the chip selloff and closed well below the $95 that buyers of its recent share sale paid.
Major move · sector plus share overhang
Closed $87.26, -3.12%, against the $95 offering price, a loss of 8.1% for those buyers The sale was 210,526,315 shares at $95, and with the underwriters' 31,578,947-share option taken in full it raised about $23bn. Reports differ on the exact pricing date and Intel's own release was unreachable from here At $87.26 Intel sits 38.70% below its 52-week high, the furthest below of the twelve Volume was 85% of average, below normal
Why it mattersA share sale trading below its issue price stops being fresh capital and becomes a supply problem. Buyers holding a loss sell into any rally, which caps the price until that stock clears. This matters more at Intel than elsewhere, because the foundry build is being paid for by issuing equity. A lower share price means handing over more of the company to fund the same factory.
Already priced in?Monday's move is the sector. Chip funds fell about 4% as a group and Intel sat inside that range on below-average volume. The offering overhang is a standing condition rather than Monday's news.
Would flip ifA named external customer commits volume on the 18A process. That is what turns the raise into a business rather than dilution.
Nvidia fell 2.91% as investors cut exposure two days before results, on the heaviest volume of the twelve.
Major move · positioning before results
Closed $208.48, -2.91%, on 134% of average volume, the heaviest of the twelve Results come 26 August after the close. Guidance was $91.0bn plus or minus 2%, and consensus sits near $92bn, about 1% above that midpoint Options price a 5.4% move in either direction the following day, about $280bn of market value, per Reuters on 25 August That implied move is below the 6.5% priced before May's report and below the 7.4% average of the last twelve quarters
Why it mattersThe revealing number is the one options are not pricing. A smaller expected swing than history says traders now treat Nvidia as a predictable company, and predictability is what lets investors pay for earnings rather than for a story. It cuts both ways. Fewer people are hedged for a genuine surprise, so a real deviation in either direction moves the price further than the 5.4% on the screen suggests.
Already priced in?Monday's fall is positioning before an event, not a verdict on one. It followed weekend reports that Nvidia has told customers of a price rise above 15% on systems shipping in early 2027, which Nvidia has not confirmed.
Would flip ifOctober-quarter guidance fails to step up from the July quarter. Growth that flattens is the one outcome this multiple does not allow for.
A Form 4 filed on 24 August disclosed that chief executive Alex Karp sold about $86.1m of stock on 20 August.
Notable move · insider filing plus rate sensitivity
492,348 Class A shares at $172.19 to $176.37, about $86.06m, sold 20 August and disclosed 24 August A further 90,000 shares, about $15.72m, went under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 12 March 2026 The stock came from vesting restricted units and converted Class B shares, not from an open-market holding Closed $175.89, -2.25%, a shallower fall than any of the other six decliners: NVDA -2.91%, INTC -3.12%, MRVL -3.27%, NBIS -3.75%, TSLA -3.83%, HOOD -4.17%. The stock sits 15.24% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersA sale that follows vesting, part of it under a plan adopted five months earlier, carries little signal on its own. What moved the stock is the multiple it carries. Palantir is priced on profits many years out, which is precisely what a rising discount rate marks down hardest, and Monday was a rising-yield session. The filing supplied a reason to sell; the bond market supplied the motive.
Already priced in?Using Monday's settled close, the fall sits in line with other high-multiple names rather than standing out. Every one of the other six decliners fell further, and none of them had an insider filing. Treating this as an insider-selling event overstates what the tape shows.
Would flip ifKarp sells outside a plan, or the existing 10b5-1 plan is amended. Discretionary selling by a founder-chief executive is a different signal entirely.
Next dateThird-quarter results, early November.
Read-through
The five that rose buy AI hardware. The seven that fell sell it, or are priced like it.
Monday's split was clean enough to be worth stating precisely. META +1.66%, AMZN +1.33%, GOOGL +0.94%, MSFT +0.84% and AAPL +0.32% rose. PLTR, NVDA, INTC, MRVL, NBIS, TSLA and HOOD fell. Not one of the twelve broke the pattern.
The mechanism. Long yields rose and a September rate rise is now live. That marks down profits expected far in the future more than profits already arriving. The five that rose generate large cash flows today. Every one of the seven that fell is valued mostly on what it will earn later, whether through AI capacity not yet built, chips not yet designed in, or a crypto cycle.
The asymmetry worth noticing. The megacaps are the customers in this trade. A cheaper, more cautious market for AI hardware is good for a buyer and bad for a seller, which is the opposite of how these names usually move together. These names usually move together as one AI bet. Monday they did not, and the split is the more informative version.
What resolves it. Nvidia on 26 August. Its October-quarter guide is the clearest read available on whether the buyers keep spending, and it lands on the same day as July core PCE. MRVL reports the day after and NBIS has just borrowed $5.75bn against the same assumption. Three of the seven are waiting on one number.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · MSFT · GOOGL · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and two gaps in this edition
Nothing material.META +1.66%, the largest gain of the twelve, plus AMZN +1.33%, GOOGL +0.94%, MSFT +0.84% and AAPL +0.32% had no company announcement dated 24 August. Their gains are the rotation described above, not company events. Apple's intraday range of 1.09% was the narrowest of the twelve.
Excluded as old. Several items circulated on Monday that are not news from the past 24 hours. Apple's roughly 200 job cuts across the Vision Pro and Siri teams were reported on 20 and 21 August. Amazon's investment of up to $25bn in Anthropic was announced on 20 April and resurfaced as though it were new. Marvell's $12.2bn Google warrant was 19 August. Intel's share sale was priced earlier in August. Microsoft's $678bn commercial backlog and Meta's $60.8bn quarterly revenue both come from results reported in July. Palantir's $1.935bn quarter was reported earlier this month.
Two gaps, stated plainly. Every figure above is a settled Monday close. The quote provider again refused extended-hours data to this account, returning HTTP 403, so there is no premarket column and nothing here should be read as one. The open is the first live information of the day. Separately, sec.gov remains blocked by this environment, so the Form 4 and the convertible note terms are taken from company releases and coverage rather than read from EDGAR directly.
Earnings within 14 days
26 AugMacro July core PCE inflation at 08:30 ET
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27 after the close. Guidance $91.0bn plus or minus 2%, consensus near $92bn
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27 after the close. Guidance $2.70bn plus or minus 5%, EPS $0.93 plus or minus $0.05
28 AugMacro Fed chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole
1 SepAAPL John Ternus becomes chief executive, Tim Cook becomes executive chairman
8 SepMacro Canada's matching tariffs on US goods are due to start
17 SepMacro FOMC decision, 17 to 18 September
25 SepTSLA the China door-handle remedy programme begins
1 Jan 2027TSLA China's GB 48001-2026 bans fully hidden door handles
Mon 24 Aug 2026HOOD, TSLA, MRVL, PLTR, INTC
The 30-second version
Robinhood rose 13.70% to $108.13, the largest gain of the twelve. It traded 259% of average volume, the heaviest of the twelve, and its intraday range of 11.08% was the widest. There was no Robinhood announcement dated 21 August. Bitcoin topped $75,000 for the first time since May and gained 22% on the week, its best in two years.
Tesla rose 5.14% to $362.86 on a robotaxi permit, in the same week China ordered its largest recall ever. Nevada regulators cleared Tesla for up to 5,000 paid robotaxis on 20 August. Tesla filed to recall 2,975,910 vehicles in China on 21 August. The stock rose anyway.
The weekend's real new information was a price rise, not a result. Bloomberg reported on 22 August that Nvidia has told major customers of a price rise. AI server prices go up more than 15% on systems shipping in early 2027. That is a cost line for four other names on this list.
Market-wide
US business activity grew at its fastest pace in 52 months. S&P Global's flash composite PMI for August, published 21 August, rose 1.5pt to 56.0. Services jumped 2.2pt to 56.8, a 20-month high. Manufacturing slipped 0.7pt to 53.2, a five-month low. S&P said the survey points to growth near 3% annualised in the third quarter, against 1.5% in the second
How a growth surprise reaches these stocksFaster growth removes the argument for quicker rate cuts, and that keeps long yields high. For this list the long yield is the discount rate applied to profits expected many years out. That is most of what investors pay for PLTR, NBIS and MRVL. So the honest expectation was that QQQ lags. It did not: QQQ closed +0.35% against SPY at +0.41%, a gap of only 0.06pp, too small to build an argument on. Name the tension rather than resolve it: Friday's tape was led by crypto and autonomy stories, not by rates.
New US sanctions on Iran are due to be announced today. Treasury Secretary Bessent holds a press conference at 18:00 GMT on 24 August, after saying last week he would impose the toughest sanctions in history. Brent fell 1.38% to about $93.09 in Monday trading and WTI 1.62% to about $85.65, after both gained more than 5% last week
Why an oil headline lands on technology stocksOil reaches this list through inflation, not through fuel bills. A sustained crude spike lifts headline inflation, which delays rate cuts, which raises the discount rate on distant profits. That hurts the longest-duration names here far more than the cash-generating ones. It also reaches NVDA, NBIS and MRVL through electricity. Power is a large and rising running cost once the hardware is paid for. Nothing is decided until the announcement lands.
Bitcoin had its best week in two years. It passed $75,000 on 21 August for the first time since May and ended the week up about 22%, near $77,000. The move began after President Trump urged Congress on 19 August to pass the CLARITY Act, which would set the regulatory perimeter for digital assets. Spot bitcoin ETFs took $517m of net inflows in a single day
It reaches exactly one name on this listOf the twelve only HOOD earns fees directly from crypto trading. The rest have no revenue line that moves with the bitcoin price. This is worth stating because Friday's tape looked like a technology rally and was not one. The index gain was small. The two largest movers on this list ran on crypto and on autonomy. Neither is a read on AI demand or on the consumer.
Robinhood rose 13.70% with no company announcement dated 21 August, as bitcoin finished its best week in two years.
Major move · sector, not company · crypto
Closed $108.13, +13.70%, the largest gain of the twelve. Volume was 259% of average, the heaviest of the twelve, and the intraday range of 11.08% was the widest Bitcoin passed $75,000 on 21 August, first time since May, and gained about 22% on the week. Spot bitcoin ETFs took $517m of net inflows in a single day In Q2 2026 Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue was $100m, down 38% year on year, against record total revenue of $1.31bn. Crypto was under 8% of the top line Prediction markets brought in $156m in the same quarter, ahead of both crypto and equities trading At $108.13 the stock is still 29.72% below its 52-week high of $153.86
Why it mattersThe market prices Robinhood as a levered bet on crypto activity, and its own accounts no longer support that. Crypto revenue is shrinking, while prediction markets are now the largest of its three trading lines and are growing. Suppose the business really has re-based onto a revenue stream that does not track the bitcoin price. Then the right response to a crypto rally is a smaller one than this, and the correlation should decay. Investors who keep paying up on bitcoin days are buying a company whose earnings mix moved on without them.
Already priced in?Using Friday's settled close, the move is a full sector repricing done in one session, on the heaviest volume of the twelve. It is not a reaction to company news, because there was none. No premarket data was available to this run, so there is no provisional read to add here.
Would flip ifBitcoin gives the week back. A move built entirely on an asset price, with no revenue announcement attached, unwinds the same way it arrived.
Next dateCongressional action on the CLARITY Act. No vote is scheduled, which is itself the risk.
Tesla rose 5.14% after Nevada cleared it to run paid robotaxis around Las Vegas, and filed China's largest ever recall on the same day.
Major move · regulatory approval · and a record recall
Closed $362.86, +5.14%, the second largest gain of the twelve, on 175% of average volume, the second heaviest Nevada's transport regulator approved three applications unanimously on 20 August. Tesla may deploy up to 5,000 vehicles in Clark County, against 1,000 each for Waymo and Uber. Tesla's own Cybercab chief engineer said publicly he would be satisfied with 2,500 within a year Separately Tesla filed to recall 2,975,910 vehicles in China on 21 August, Model 3, Y, S and X built between 2018 and 2026. The fix, from 25 September, is warning labels plus a software update that lowers the windows after a collision Eight other manufacturers filed alongside it, about 4.3m vehicles in total. China's standard GB 48001-2026 bans fully hidden door handles from 1 January 2027 The stock is 27.26% below its 52-week high of $498.83
Why it mattersA permit converts an autonomy programme from a demonstration into a business with a revenue line. What investors are buying is the count of vehicles Tesla may legally charge fares in. That number sets the ceiling on the whole robotaxi case. The recall runs the other way but costs almost nothing. The remedy is a label and a software push, not a part, so it barely touches cash. What it does touch is the timetable, since the same regulator that ordered it also writes the rules Tesla's China sales must meet from 2027.
Already priced in?Partly, on Friday's settled close. The market clearly weighted the permit over the recall, and the split is defensible on cost. It looks less defensible on the regulatory signal, which is that Beijing is now willing to force a design change across an entire industry.
Would flip ifThe Clark County fleet arrives at a fraction of 5,000. The engineer's own 2,500 remark is the number to hold the company to.
Next date25 September, the China recall remedy begins rolling out.
Nvidia fell 0.98% on Friday, then two reports landed over the weekend, one on prices and one on Perplexity.
Minor move · two weekend reports · results Wednesday
Closed $214.72, -0.98%, on 100% of average volume. At 9.23% below its 52-week high of $236.54 it has the smallest gap to its high of the twelve Bloomberg reported on 22 August that Nvidia has told large customers of a price rise. AI server prices go up more than 15% in many cases, on systems shipping in early 2027, across Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin. Rising memory costs are the stated reason The Information reported on 23 August that Nvidia is in talks to invest in Perplexity. The valuation would top $30bn, over 50% above the roughly $20bn of a year ago. Perplexity's annualised revenue is above $750m, from under $250m at the start of the year Q2 FY27 results land 26 August after the close. Company guidance was $91.0bn plus or minus 2%; consensus sits near $92bn of revenue and $2.06 to $2.08 of EPS Both weekend items are press reports. Neither is an Nvidia disclosure, and the company has confirmed nothing
Why it mattersA price rise passed through to customers protects gross margin, which is the number that has carried Nvidia's multiple all year. The catch is who absorbs it. If buyers pay, Nvidia's margin holds and the cost lands in the capital budgets of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. If buyers push back or delay, the increase becomes an order-timing problem instead. Wednesday's guidance is where that question gets answered, which is why a Friday move of under one percent tells you almost nothing right now.
Already priced in?No, and it cannot be. The price report landed on 22 August, after Friday's close, so Friday's -0.98% is not a reaction to it. Premarket data was unavailable to this run, so the first readable reaction is the open. Reuters reported Nasdaq futures slipping Monday morning ahead of both the sanctions announcement and these results.
Would flip ifWednesday's gross margin guidance shows the memory cost arriving faster than the price rise recovers it. The increase does not reach revenue until early 2027.
Next date26 August, Q2 FY27 after the close. The nearest results date of the twelve.
Marvell fell 5.57%, the largest fall of the twelve, giving back part of a two-day rise with nothing new announced.
Major move · no company news · unwind
Closed $237.04, -5.57%, the largest fall of the twelve. Its intraday range of 8.25% was the second widest, behind Robinhood There was no Marvell announcement dated 21 August. The Google warrant that drove the stock was announced 19 August: up to 58,970,907 shares at $206.58, about $12.2bn if taken in full Across 19 and 20 August the stock gained 16.2%. Friday erased roughly a third of that 21 August was a monthly options expiry, which mechanically adds to the size of moves in heavily traded names Q2 FY27 results are on 27 August. Guidance was $2.70bn at the midpoint, 35% growth, with consensus non-GAAP EPS near $0.93
Why it mattersNothing about the Google arrangement changed on Friday, so nothing about the business changed either. What changed is who owns the stock: a two-day gain of that size attracts sellers who were never holding it for the 2033 vesting schedule. The useful point is what the unwind leaves behind. The close of 20 August already contained the full warrant story. Results on 27 August are now the first hard test of whether custom silicon revenue arrives on the timetable the tranches imply.
Already priced in?The question does not apply, because there was no news to price. This is a positioning move on Friday's settled close, amplified by expiry. Read it as the market taking the warrant premium down a notch, not as a judgement on the deal.
Would flip ifThe 27 August guidance puts custom-silicon revenue ahead of the vesting schedule. The tranches are public now, one per $500m Google buys, so the yardstick is visible to everyone.
Next date27 August, Q2 FY27, one day after Nvidia.
Palantir rose 3.44%, the third largest gain of the twelve, with no company announcement dated 21 August.
Major move · no company news
Closed $179.94, +3.44%, on 116% of average volume No Palantir release, contract award or filing carries the date 21 August. The Q2 report and the raise of full-year guidance to about $8.15bn were early August The stock remains 13.29% below its 52-week high of $207.52
Why it mattersTreat this as the long-duration end of the market moving together on a strong growth print, not as a Palantir event. It is worth watching all the same. A PMI arguing for higher-for-longer rates should have gone the other way for the most expensive name here.
Already priced in?Not applicable. There was no company news on Friday to price.
Would flip ifThe next long-yield move up finds Palantir where the rate logic says it belongs, at the back of this list rather than the front.
Next dateQ3 results, early November. Nothing scheduled inside 14 days.
Intel fell 2.24% with no announcement dated 21 August, still digesting the share sale it priced the week before.
Notable move · follow-through, not fresh news
Closed $90.07, -2.24%, on 80% of average volume, the second lightest of the twelve The equity raise was priced on 18 August: about 210.5m shares at $95, roughly $20bn. Friday's close is 5.2% below that issue price At 36.73% below its 52-week high of $142.35, Intel has the largest gap to its high of the twelve
Why it mattersNew shares sold at $95 set a reference the market can measure against, and trading below it says buyers of that stock are underwater. That matters for the next raise more than this one. A foundry build needs repeat access to equity, and each round is priced off the last.
Already priced in?Largely, on Friday's settled close. The dilution was known on 18 August, and light volume suggests drift rather than new selling.
Would flip ifA named external foundry customer signs with volume attached. Reports of a Microsoft 18A order circulated again this weekend. None of the coverage carries a date inside this window, so it is not treated as news here.
Next dateQ3 results, late October. Nothing scheduled inside 14 days.
Nebius was almost unchanged on the lightest volume of the twelve, ahead of its $5.0bn convertible settling today.
Minor move · the convertible settles today
Closed $219.13, -0.45%, on 65% of average volume, the lightest of the twelve The notes priced on 19 August: $3bn of 0.50% notes due 2030 and $2bn of 4.50% notes due 2034. Net proceeds about $4.94bn. Settlement is expected today, 24 August Alongside it Nebius agreed to exchange $400m of 2.00% notes due 2029 and $400m of 3.00% notes due 2031. The consideration is about 15.8m Class A shares, settling on or about 24 August The damage was done on 19 August, when the stock fell 9.87%. Friday added almost nothing
Why it mattersThe exchange is the part worth noticing. Swapping $800m of older notes for shares converts a repayment obligation into permanent dilution today, rather than at some future conversion price. It shrinks what Nebius owes and enlarges the share count against a revenue base near $1.4bn. The cash cushion improves and the per-share claim on it thins at the same time.
Already priced in?Yes, on 19 August rather than on Friday. Settlement is mechanical and was scheduled when the deal priced.
Would flip ifThe build schedule that the $4.94bn is meant to fund slips. Cash raised against capacity that arrives late is the whole risk in this name.
Next date24 August, today. Settlement of the notes and the exchange.
Read-through
A 15% price rise at Nvidia is a capex line at four other names on this list
Bloomberg's report of 22 August is the weekend's only genuinely new piece of company information. It does not stay inside Nvidia.
What it says. AI server prices rise by more than 15% in many cases, on systems shipping in early 2027, across Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin. Memory cost is the stated cause. The contract manufacturers who assemble these systems have been passing the notice on to their own customers.
Who pays.MSFT, GOOGL, META and AMZN are the buyers. For them this is not a margin issue in 2026, because the systems ship in 2027. It is a question about what a fixed capital budget buys. Either they spend more for the same compute, or they accept less compute for the same spend. The second outcome slows the capacity that their AI revenue forecasts depend on.
Who is squeezed hardest.NBIS. A neocloud rents compute out at market rates and buys its hardware at Nvidia's. A hyperscaler can absorb a 15% input rise inside a business that already earns money elsewhere. Nebius has a revenue base near $1.4bn and $5.0bn of fresh convertible debt settling today. Its capacity plan was drawn up at the old prices.
Where it helps.MRVL, indirectly. Every increase in the price of a full Nvidia system improves the arithmetic for a customer weighing custom silicon instead. That is the arrangement Google signed on 19 August. It is why Marvell's results on 27 August matter more after this report than before it.
None of this is priced. The report landed after Friday's close and there was no premarket data available to this run.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · MSFT · GOOGL · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what did not survive dating, and one gap in this edition
Nothing material.GOOGL +1.22%, META +0.75%, MSFT +0.43%, AMZN -0.57% and AAPL -0.63% had no company announcement dated 21 August. Amazon's range of 1.58% was the narrowest of the twelve. Meta traded 89% of average volume and Microsoft 94%, both below normal.
Six up, six down. The twelve split exactly in half on Friday, which is worth stating because the two largest movers ran on crypto and on an autonomy permit. Neither says anything about AI demand.
Excluded as old. Weekend coverage recycled several items that are not news from the past 24 hours. Anthropic's S-1 exists only as a confidential draft submitted on 1 June. No public prospectus has been filed. The pieces telling Amazon holders what the S-1 reveals describe a document nobody outside the SEC has seen. An article about an Iranian strike on an AWS facility in Bahrain resurfaced this weekend; the event it describes is dated 3 April. Einride's order for 500 Tesla Semis was announced 18 August and Marvell's Google warrant 19 August. Intel's $20bn share sale was 18 August, and Apple's chief executive succession 20 April. Reports of a Microsoft order on Intel's 18A node circulated again without a date inside this window.
Two press reports, flagged as such. The Nvidia price rise and the Perplexity talks are both journalism, not disclosure. They are reported here because both are specific and dated, but Nvidia has confirmed neither.
A gap in this edition, stated plainly. Every figure above is a settled Friday close. There is no premarket data anywhere in this brief, because the quote provider refused extended-hours data to this account (HTTP 403). Past editions carried a premarket column and this one cannot. Nothing here should be read as a premarket move, and the open is the first live information of the week. sec.gov remains blocked from this environment, returning 403 on all twelve tickers this morning. Filing details therefore come from company releases and coverage, not from EDGAR directly.
Earnings within 14 days
24 AugNBIS the $5.0bn convertible notes settle, net proceeds about $4.94bn, plus the $800m note-for-share exchange
24 AugMacro Bessent announces new Iran sanctions at 18:00 GMT
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27 after the close. Guidance was $91.0bn plus or minus 2%, consensus near $92bn
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27. Guidance $2.70bn at the midpoint, 35% growth
1 SepAAPL John Ternus becomes chief executive, Tim Cook becomes executive chairman
25 SepTSLA the China door-handle recall remedy begins
1 Jan 2027TSLA China's GB 48001-2026 bans fully hidden door handles
Fri 21 Aug 2026MRVL, NBIS, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, TSLA
The 30-second version
Marvell was the only one of the twelve to rise. It closed +5.79% at $251.01, on 124% of average volume. This was the second day of the Google warrant, not the first: the news landed 19 August and MRVL closed +9.85% that day. Eleven of the twelve fell.
Nebius priced a $5.0bn convertible bond, and the damage was Wednesday's. The terms use the 19 August close of $223.90 as their reference, and NBIS fell 9.87% that day on 50.4m shares. Thursday added only -1.69%. Premarket it is +3.58%.
Walmart, not a technology company, set the tone. Its US same-store sales rose 2.6%, the slowest in more than six years. The three weakest of the twelve were AMZN -2.16%, AAPL -1.75% and TSLA -1.71%, the three that sell to households.
Market-wide
The Treasury's bond rally faded within a day. On 19 August the Treasury said it would at least double its long-end liquidity buybacks, from $2bn to $4bn per operation, running 9 September to 4 November. Yields fell. On 20 August they went back up: the 10-year +4bp to 4.69%, the 30-year +4bp to 5.24%
How it reaches these stocksA buyback changes who holds the bonds, not how many exist. The market took a day to work that out. For these twelve the long yield is the discount rate applied to profits expected years ahead, and most of what investors pay for NBIS, PLTR and MRVL sits out there. A one-day reprieve that reverses leaves the multiple where it was. Bessent said on 20 August the operations could run past $4bn, which is why this is not finished.
Walmart reported US same-store sales up 2.6% on 20 August, the slowest in over six years. The company said new pharmacy pricing rules cost it about 0.8pp; without them the figure would have been 3.4%. Its CFO said consumers have been more pressured than earlier in the year. Walmart shares fell more than 6%
Why a supermarket number splits this list in twoWalmart is the widest available read on what American households are actually spending. That matters for AMZN's retail half, for AAPL's handset upgrade cycle, for TSLA's large discretionary purchase, and for the advertising budgets that pay META and GOOGL. It does not touch NVDA, MRVL or NBIS, whose buyers are corporate capital budgets, not shoppers. Thursday's ranking followed that split almost exactly.
Weekly jobless claims fell to 206,000 from a revised 212,000. QQQ closed -0.72% against SPY at -0.84%. Index prints for the day differ slightly from these ETF closes, and the figures here are the ETF closes we fetched
What the gauge saysA firm labour market removes the argument for faster rate cuts, which keeps the long yield elevated. On the pure duration story QQQ should have lagged SPY, and it did not. The gap is only 0.12pp, too small to build a case on, but it is worth naming: Thursday was a consumer scare more than a rates scare, and the consumer sits more heavily in the broad index than in the Nasdaq.
Marvell rose 5.79%, the only gain of the twelve, extending Wednesday's move on the Google warrant.
Major move · company event · day two
Closed $251.01, +5.79%, on 124% of average volume. Its intraday range of 7.13% was the second widest of the twelve The warrant, issued 18 August and announced 19 August, lets Google buy up to 58,970,907 Marvell shares at $206.58, about $12.2bn if taken in full. It runs to 18 August 2033 Nearly 1.4m shares vest in year one. The rest vest in tranches, one for every $500m of chips Google buys, reaching full vesting at roughly $120bn of cumulative purchases MRVL closed +9.85% on 19 August, the day the deal became public, so Thursday is the second leg. At $251.01 the strike is already 21.5% in the money, worth about $2.6bn on paper to Google if fully vested
Why it mattersCustom silicon carries one dominant risk: the customer designs you out and the revenue leaves in a single decision. A warrant that vests only as Google buys makes Google an owner of Marvell's upside, so re-sourcing now costs Google something. That lengthens the number of years investors will assume the programme survives, and the assumed life of a revenue stream is most of what sets the multiple. The scope matters too: inference accelerators, storage, network and memory controllers, which is a wider attachment than a single chip socket.
Already priced in?Partly. Using settled closes, MRVL has gained 16.2% across 19 and 20 August combined. Premarket it is a further +1.07%, provisional and thin. The market is paying for the attachment, not yet for the $120bn, which is a fiscal-2033 number and largely unearned.
Would flip ifNext Thursday's guidance shows custom-silicon revenue arriving later than the warrant tranches imply. The vesting schedule is now a public yardstick for Marvell's own numbers.
Next date27 August, Q2 results, one day after Nvidia.
Nebius priced an upsized $5.0bn convertible bond, having launched it a day earlier.
Notable move · company event · reaction was Wednesday
Two tranches: $3bn at 0.50% due 2030 and $2bn at 4.50% due 2034. Upsized from $4.5bn. Net proceeds about $4.94bn, settling 24 August Conversion prices $313.46 and $324.65, premiums of 40% and 45%. Both are struck off the 19 August close of $223.90, which dates the pricing to Wednesday evening The selling was Wednesday. NBIS fell 9.87% on 19 August on 50.4m shares, its heaviest since 12 August. Thursday's -1.69% came on 91% of average volume, with a low of $212.04 and a close of $220.11 The stock is 26.6% below its 52-week high of $299.86. Premarket it is +3.58%, second strongest of the twelve
Why it mattersNebius has signed more capacity than it has built, including the $17.4bn Microsoft contract. Until Wednesday the open question was whether the build would be funded or would need equity sold at whatever price the market allowed. Five billion dollars answers that, and a 0.50% coupon on the larger tranche says lenders are buying the conversion option rather than the yield. The cost is that existing holders now own a claim that shrinks if the shares ever reach $313. Financing risk has been swapped for dilution risk, which is the better of the two trades but is not free.
Already priced in?Yes, and on the correct day. The 9.87% fall on 19 August was the reaction; Thursday's -1.69% is settling. Anyone reading Thursday's close as the verdict on this deal has the wrong session.
Would flip ifContracted revenue converts to delivered revenue on schedule. The conversion prices are 40% above Wednesday's close, so the bonds only dilute if the equity story works.
Next date24 August, notes settle. Q3 results are not expected until 10 November.
Amazon fell 2.16%, the largest fall of the twelve, with no company announcement dated 20 August.
Notable move · no company event · consumer
Closed $260.11 on 85% of average volume, so this was not forced selling Its intraday range was 1.63%, the third narrowest of the twelve. A broad drift, not an event Excluded as old: coverage circulating on 20 August recycled the $2.5bn FTC settlement and the Q2 results reported in July. Neither is news from the past 24 hours
Why it mattersWalmart's signal reaches Amazon through its retail half. Roughly half its revenue is retail, where the market prices a volume assumption rather than a margin one. A slowdown at Walmart lowers that assumed volume across the sector before any Amazon-specific number arrives. The AWS half is untouched by this, which is why the fall was measured in points rather than a repricing.
Already priced in?Using Thursday's settled close, the move is roughly three times QQQ's 0.72%. That is the consumer read being applied, and it looks proportionate. Premarket +0.62%, provisional.
Would flip ifNext week's retail data separates Walmart's problem from the sector's. Walmart blamed 0.8pp on pharmacy pricing rules, which is company-specific and does not reach Amazon.
Apple fell 1.75% as a broker's monthly App Store tracker showed net revenue down year on year.
Notable move · third-party data · consumer
Closed $311.30, -1.75%, on almost exactly average volume (100%). It fell 1.94% from its own opening price, the second largest such reversal of the twelve The App Store figure is a Morgan Stanley estimate from monthly tracking data, published 20 August. It is not an Apple disclosure and Apple has confirmed nothing The stock is 9.66% below its 52-week high of $344.57, one of the three smallest gaps of the twelve
Why it mattersInvestors pay a higher multiple for Apple's Services earnings than for its hardware earnings, because Services is recurring and carries far higher margins. The App Store sits inside Services. If net revenue there is genuinely shrinking year on year, the growth rate attached to Services falls, and so does the multiple applied to the whole company. That is why a third-party estimate can move the stock at all.
Already priced in?Partly, using Thursday's settled close. Treat the read with care: the source is an outside estimate, and Apple's own EU commission cut to 26% from 1 October pushes App Store net revenue the same way for a different reason. Premarket +0.16%, the weakest of the twelve bar Palantir.
Would flip ifApple's next Services disclosure shows growth intact, which would make the tracker a bad proxy rather than an early warning.
Next date1 October, EU commission cut takes effect. 29 October, Q4 results.
● HOODChart-0.70% close · but -5.70% from its own open
Robinhood gave up a 5.8% premarket gain and closed lower, on the widest range and heaviest volume of the twelve.
Minor close · violent reversal · crypto beta
Opened $100.85, high $101.61, low $93.65, closed $95.10. The range was 8.31% of the prior close, the widest of the twelve, on 159% of average volume, also the heaviest It fell 5.70% from its own opening price, by far the largest such reversal of the twelve The driver was crypto, not company news. Bitcoin broke $70,000 for the first time since early June after Trump pushed the CLARITY Act at a White House crypto event on 19 August, with a record $2.7bn of short liquidations Excluded as old: the Robinhood Ventures Fund II (RVII) IPO priced 8m shares at $25 on 13 August. That is a fortnight old and did not move Thursday's tape HOOD is 38.19% below its 52-week high of $153.86, the largest gap of the twelve
Why it mattersRobinhood's earnings are geared to trading activity, and crypto is its most volatile revenue line, so the stock trades as a leveraged claim on retail risk appetite rather than on anything the company announced. The reversal is the useful signal: buyers who paid up on a policy headline were gone by the close. That tells you the market is pricing the CLARITY Act as talk until it is law, and it is a warning about reading premarket moves in this name at all.
Already priced in?This is the day's clearest caution. HOOD is +5.05% premarket this morning, the strongest of the twelve, on the same crypto impulse that reversed yesterday. Yesterday's premarket gain was +5.77% and it ended -0.70%. Provisional, and the open will settle it.
Would flip ifThe CLARITY Act gets a floor vote, or the SEC's 18 August Regulation Crypto Assets proposal is finalised. Either turns sentiment into a revenue channel.
Next dateSEC comment period on the crypto rulemaking. Q3 results not until 4 November, expected.
Alphabet fell 1.17% as the counterparty to Marvell's warrant, having barely moved when the deal broke.
Notable move · counterparty to the Marvell deal
Closed $340.67 on 91% of average volume. Its intraday range was 1.55%, the second narrowest of the twelve Alphabet was described as unmoved on 19 August, the day the warrant was announced, while Broadcom fell about 3%
Why it mattersAlphabet is paying up to $12.2bn of Marvell equity value to widen its TPU supply beyond one vendor. That is worth more to it than the cost: single-supplier dependence on Broadcom was the main execution risk in Google's plan to run AI inference on its own silicon rather than buying Nvidia GPUs. Cheaper inference per query is what turns AI search features from a cost into a margin. The market gave Alphabet no credit on the day, which is the asymmetry below.
Already priced in?No. Alphabet did not move on the announcement and fell with the market on Thursday. Investors are weighting the consumer and advertising read above a supply-chain change whose benefit arrives over years.
Would flip ifGoogle discloses TPU deployment or unit-cost figures at a level that lets the saving be quantified.
Bloomberg reported this morning that Nvidia is in early talks with Korean chip designer Rebellions.
Minor move · report of early talks · no figures
Closed $216.85, -0.33%. Only Meta at -0.04% fell less. Volume ran at 93% of average The Rebellions report is dated 21 August, after Thursday's close, so it is not in Thursday's price. Talks are described as preliminary: partnership, investment or acquisition. No value has been reported and neither company has confirmed anything NVDA is 8.32% below its 52-week high of $236.54, the smallest gap of the twelve Excluded: a widely shared claim of a $500bn Nvidia financing deal could not be verified against any primary source and is not used here
Why it mattersNvidia held up better than almost anything else on the list because its demand comes from corporate capital budgets, which the Walmart number does not touch. The Rebellions talks matter only as direction: Rebellions builds inference chips, the segment where custom silicon is taking share from general-purpose GPUs. Buying into that is a hedge against the same trend the Marvell and Google deal represents.
Already priced in?Nothing to price yet. Premarket +0.44% after the report, which is close to nothing, and provisional.
Would flip ifWednesday's results or guidance show inference demand shifting to customers' own silicon faster than expected.
Next date26 August, Q2 FY27 after the close. Five days out, the nearest results of the twelve.
Tesla fell 1.71% with no company announcement dated 20 August.
Notable move · no company event · consumer
Closed $345.13 on 96% of average volume. Third largest fall of the twelve It is 30.81% below its 52-week high of $498.83
Why it mattersA car is the largest discretionary purchase most households make, so a weakening consumer signal reaches Tesla's delivery assumptions faster than it reaches almost any other name here. Deliveries are the number Tesla's valuation is built on. The absence of company news is the point: this was the sector input, priced.
Already priced in?In line with the consumer read on Thursday's settled close. Premarket +1.12%, provisional.
Would flip ifConsumer data next week reverses, or the robotaxi rollout produces a dated operational number.
Commerce Secretary Lutnick asked a judge to dismiss a challenge to the government's Intel stake.
Minor move · legal filing · capital raise is old
Closed $92.13 on 76% of average volume, the second lightest of the twelve behind Palantir. Apart from Marvell it was the only ticker to close above its own open, by 0.24% The motion to dismiss was reported 20 August. No ruling has been made and no financial terms are at stake in the filing itself Excluded as old: the $15bn stock offering announced 10 August was upsized and priced at $20bn, 210,526,315 shares at $95, on 10-11 August, closing 12 August. Articles recirculating the $15bn figure this week are describing a deal that is ten days old and was superseded
Why it mattersThe litigation decides whether the government's equity stake survives, and that stake is what underwrites Intel's foundry build-out. A dismissal would remove a tail risk rather than add value. Note the stock trades at $92.13, below the $95 the August offering was priced at, so buyers of that issue are underwater.
Already priced in?Neutral. A procedural motion with no ruling is not a repricing event, and volume was the second lightest of the twelve.
Would flip ifThe judge lets the challenge proceed, which would put the stake and the foundry funding back in question.
Next dateNo scheduled hearing date confirmed. 22 October, Q3 results.
Read-through
The asymmetry: two companies promised future shares this week, and only one was rewarded
Marvell and Nebius both agreed this week to hand over equity that does not exist yet. The market treated them as opposites.
Marvell granted a warrant over up to 58,970,907 shares and rose 9.85% on 19 August, then 5.79% on 20 August.
Nebius sold $5.0bn of bonds convertible into stock and fell 9.87% on 19 August, then 1.69% on 20 August.
The difference is what the dilution is attached to. Marvell's shares are issued only as Google actually buys chips, one tranche per $500m, so the shares appear only alongside the revenue that justifies them. It is dilution that pays for itself by construction. Nebius took $4.94bn of cash now against capacity it still has to build, fill and get paid for, and the conversion right exists whether or not that works. Same instrument class, opposite risk.
The read-through to Alphabet. Google is buying a second source for its TPU stack, which lowers its dependence on Broadcom and, over time, its cost per inference. That is a direct substitute for buying Nvidia GPUs. GOOGL fell 1.17% and was reported unmoved on the announcement day, while NVDA fell only 0.33%. The market has priced the supplier gaining a customer and has not yet priced the customer gaining leverage.
Nothing material
MSFT · META · PLTR, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, and what did not survive dating
Nothing material.MSFT -0.65%, META -0.04% and PLTR -0.70% had no company announcement dated 20 August. All three traded below average volume, Palantir at 69%, the lightest of the twelve. Microsoft's range of 0.96% was the narrowest of the twelve. Meta was the flattest close of the twelve at -0.04%.
Routine filings. Form 4s show a Palantir insider sold $2,788,463 of stock (reported 20 August) and a Meta insider $4,379,184 (reported 21 August). Both are ordinary disposals at these companies' scale and neither is a signal.
Excluded as old. Microsoft's Azure passing $100bn of annual revenue, Amazon's $2.5bn FTC settlement, Amazon's Q2 results, Intel's $20bn share sale and Robinhood's RVII IPO all resurfaced in coverage dated this week. Every one of them happened between late July and 13 August. None is news from the past 24 hours.
Could not be verified. A circulating claim that Nvidia secured a $500bn financing deal traces to no primary source and is not reported here. sec.gov is blocked from this environment (HTTP 403 on all twelve tickers this morning), so Form 4 details above come from filing aggregators rather than from EDGAR directly.
One discrepancy, stated plainly. Press reports put the S&P 500 down about 0.33% and the Nasdaq Composite about 0.52% on 20 August. Our fetched ETF closes are SPY -0.84% and QQQ -0.72%. Every figure in this brief uses the fetched ETF and single-stock data, which is internally consistent across quote and daily-bar endpoints.
Earnings within 14 days
24 AugNBIS the $5.0bn convertible notes settle. Net proceeds about $4.94bn
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27 after the close. Five days out and the nearest results date of the twelve
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, one day after Nvidia. First guidance since the Google warrant, and the vesting tranches are now a public yardstick
1 OctAAPL the EU in-app commission falls to 26% from 30%
9 SepMacro the Treasury's enlarged long-end buybacks begin, running to 4 November
Wed 19 Aug 2026MRVL, NBIS, INTC, HOOD, META, NVDA, AAPL
The 30-second version
A bond move, not a technology story, set the session. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.323% on 18 August, its highest since 2007. QQQ closed -1.69% against SPY at -0.68%: the long-duration index lagged the broad one by more than a point. Five of the twelve fell 3% or more and none rose 3%. Three rose and nine fell.
Nebius got the approval it had been waiting for and fell 7.60%. The Vineland planning board passed the Phase 2 site plan 8-1 on the night of 17 August. That clears the campus behind its $17.4bn Microsoft contract. NBIS still closed 7.54% below its own opening price, and its intraday range of 12.08% was the widest of the twelve.
Apple agreed to charge European developers less, and rose 1.45%. On 18 August it cut its EU in-app commission to 26% from 30% and scrapped the Core Technology Fee. That ends the Commission's Digital Markets Act case. That was the largest rise of the twelve on a day when nine fell.
Market-wide
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.323% on 18 August, a 19-year high. US national debt is approaching $40tn, inflation expectations are firm, and the AI industry is now a heavy borrower in its own right
How it reaches these stocksA long bond yield is the price of waiting. Most of what investors pay for NBIS, MRVL, PLTR and NVDA is profit expected several years out. A higher discount rate shrinks a distant profit far more than a near one. That is arithmetic, not sentiment, and it explains why the steepest falls came in the names whose earnings sit furthest out. QQQ closed -1.69% and SPY -0.68%, which fits the read rather than contradicting it.
Oil is feeding the yield. Trump ruled out talks with Iran on 18 August and said the naval blockade stands. Brent was near $91.55 and WTI $84.61 early on 19 August. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February
Why an oil headline lands on a chip stockEnergy is the one input that reaches every price in the economy. A sustained oil shock raises expected inflation, and long bond yields are made of expected inflation. The chain is oil, then yields, then the discount rate, then the multiple investors will pay per dollar of distant earnings. None of these twelve companies buys much crude. All of them are priced off the number at the end of that chain.
The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its August meeting at 14:00 ET today. Overnight, Asian equities fell hard, with South Korea's KOSPI down more than 5%. US futures were softer early: S&P 500 -0.18%, Nasdaq-100 -0.37%
What to watchThe minutes are the only scheduled event today that can move the discount rate directly. Futures are thin before the bell and frequently reverse, so treat the early softness as provisional. Note that per-ticker premarket quotes could not be obtained this morning, so nothing below reads a premarket move for an individual name.
Marvell fell 7.82% with no company announcement, eight days before it reports.
Major move · no company event · sector
Closed $216.00, -7.82%, the largest fall of the twelve. Volume ran at 130% of its average, so the selling was real rather than thin The only filing in the window is routine. A Form 4 filed 18 August shows CEO Matt Murphy sold 7,500 shares on 17 August. The average price was $236.08, or $1.77m in total. It ran under a 10b5-1 plan he adopted on 16 December 2025. He still holds 783,186 shares The stock sits 34.5% below its 52-week high of $329.88. AMD and Intel fell with it on the same day, which is the tell
Why it mattersMarvell sells custom silicon to a handful of very large buyers whose orders are funded, increasingly, with borrowed money. When the cost of that borrowing jumps, the market marks down how many years of order growth it will assume. Marvell's price is almost entirely that assumption. A pre-scheduled sale of 0.9% of the chief executive's holding tells you nothing about demand; the yield does.
Already priced in?There was no news to price. Using Tuesday's settled close, this is a 7.82% move on a sector input. Set against QQQ's 1.69% fall, that is roughly four and a half times the index. That is what a high-multiple supplier does when the discount rate moves.
Would flip ifThe 30-year yield retreats below 5%. Or Marvell's 27 August guidance pulls the custom-silicon revenue outlook nearer than the market now assumes.
Next date27 August, second quarter results, one day after Nvidia.
Nebius won the New Jersey planning approval its Microsoft contract depends on, then fell 7.60%.
Major move · good news · approval 17 August
The Vineland planning board approved the Phase 2 amended site plan by 8-1 on the night of 17 August. It adds 600,000 square feet to the DataOne campus. The board had held the vote up over noise, water use, emissions and LNG storage The campus supplies the five-year Microsoft contract initially valued at $17.4bn when it was agreed last year Closed $248.43 against an open of $268.70, so it gave up 7.54% after the opening bell. High $274.80, low $244.78: an intraday range of 12.08%, the widest of the twelve Volume was 19% below its own average, so this was not capitulation on heavy trade
Why it mattersRemoving a permitting risk should raise the probability that contracted revenue actually arrives, which is normally worth something. It was worth nothing here because the constraint that moved is financing, not planning. Nebius has no mature business throwing off cash to build with, so every gigawatt it adds is funded externally. A 19-year high in long yields raises the cost of every future funding round. That arithmetic overwhelmed a favourable municipal vote on the same morning.
Already priced in?Moved hard in the opposite direction to the news, which is the flag. Using the settled Tuesday close, the market weighted the cost of capital over the removal of an execution risk. The pattern across the day supports that: the fall began at the open and the stock closed near its low.
Would flip ifNebius announces the Vineland capacity is financed on terms already agreed, or long yields fall back. Either turns the approval into revenue rather than into a larger funding requirement.
Next dateNo confirmed results date. Consensus points to early November for third quarter figures.
Intel fell 6.58% on no announcement, back to within touching distance of last week's placement price.
Major move · no company event · sector
Closed $96.685, -6.58%, on volume 11% above average That is only 1.8% above the $95.00 price at which Intel sold 210,526,315 new shares on 11 August. Investors who bought that $20bn placement are close to flat eight days later Nothing Intel-specific is dated 18 August. The placement is from 11 August and the Tesla 14A Terafab win was announced in April, though both recirculated in this week's coverage
Why it mattersIntel's equity now carries a much larger share count, sold on a promise that foundry customers will fill new capacity. That promise is worth less when capital costs rise, because the customers deciding whether to commit are themselves financing long-dated projects. The placement price has become a visible floor. A stock trading near the level management chose to issue at is being tested, not believed.
Already priced in?No news to price. Read this as sector. AMD, Marvell and Intel all fell together while Nvidia fell less. That is the AI chip trade narrowing, not a judgement on Intel.
Would flip ifIntel names a second large external 14A customer with a dollar commitment. That converts the placement from a bet into funded backlog, which is revenue already under contract.
Robinhood fell 4.90% the day a co-founder's routine share sale was filed.
Major move · Form 4 filed 18 August · mostly sector
A Form 4 filed 18 August shows director and co-founder Baiju Bhatt sold 50,317 Class A shares on 14 August. The average price was $96.80, or $4.87m. The plan behind it was adopted on 13 November 2025 He retains 46,848,939 Class B shares. The sale was about 0.1% of his holding, which is not a signal about anything Closed $91.53, near the session low of $91.44, on volume roughly in line with average. It sits 40.5% below its 52-week high of $153.86, the largest gap to a high of the twelve Context from 12 August, outside this window. July crypto notional volumes were $10.9bn, down 62% year on year. Equities ran $333bn, up 59%
Why it mattersSeveral outlets pinned Tuesday's fall on the insider filing. The sizes do not support that: $4.9m of stock cannot move a company worth tens of billions. Robinhood is simply the highest-beta name on this list, a business whose revenue rises and falls with retail risk appetite. When long yields spike and equity indices fall, the market cuts its estimate of how much trading its customers will do. That estimate drives the bulk of the valuation.
Already priced in?The move is larger than the news, so treat the news as the wrong explanation rather than as underpriced. Against Tuesday's settled close, a 4.90% fall on a day QQQ lost 1.69% is the market repricing retail activity, not a director's trading plan.
Would flip ifAugust volume data, due in mid-September, shows crypto notional stabilising month on month. The year-on-year comparison is already known and priced; the sequential number is not.
Next dateMid-September, August operating data. Third quarter results expected early November.
Opening statements began in the youth safety trial in federal court in Oakland.
Major move · trial opened 18 August
The consolidated action brought by 29 state attorneys general opened on 18 August. Coverage puts the trial at four to six weeks, with Mark Zuckerberg expected to testify Meta has told the court the states seek as much as $1.4tn. Lawyers for the states have said $200bn is the more realistic figure. Both come from filings and hearings reported by press, not from a company release Closed $543.67, -4.45%, on volume at 182% of its average, the heaviest volume against its own average of the twelve It sits 31.3% below its 52-week high of $790.80
Why it mattersA damages range this wide is not really a number, it is a measure of how little anyone can price. What changed on Tuesday is that the range starts narrowing: testimony and rulings replace speculation over the next month. Investors discount a legal overhang by assuming a settlement, and every week of evidence moves that assumption. The operational risk is the larger one. A remedy that forces design changes to teen accounts touches engagement, and advertising revenue is sold against engagement.
Already priced in?Partly, and the volume says the repricing is active. The trial date was known. So the 4.45% fall on Tuesday's settled close responds to the opening statements. Volume was the heaviest against its own average of the twelve. Note Meta also fell 3.54% on Monday, before the trial opened.
Would flip ifThe judge narrows the claims or excludes the internal research the states are building on. That would cut the plausible damages range sharply and quickly.
Next dateDaily through late September. Zuckerberg is expected to testify at some point during it.
Nvidia fell 2.34% with nothing new from the company, a week before results.
Notable move · no company event · results in 7 days
Closed $219.74, -2.34%, on volume slightly below average. It sits 7.10% below its 52-week high, the smallest gap to a high of the twelve It fell less than Marvell, Intel and AMD on the same day, which is the AI trade concentrating rather than unwinding The $21bn SpaceX stake disclosed in its 13F is dated 14 August, and the $105bn Ohio backstop 17 August. Neither belongs in this window
Why it mattersNvidia is now the position investors keep while cutting exposure to everything around it. That is why its discount to its high stayed the smallest of the twelve. That relative strength raises the bar for next week. Expectations embedded in a stock near its high are harder to beat than those in one already marked down.
Already priced in?Moved roughly in line with a rates-driven session, so largely. On Tuesday's settled close it lost about 1.4 times QQQ's fall, against Marvell's 4.6 times.
Would flip ifThe 26 August guidance shows data centre revenue growth decelerating, which would remove the reason for the concentration.
Next date26 August, second quarter FY27 results after the close, seven days out and the nearest of the twelve.
Apple rewrote its EU App Store terms and ended the European Commission's Digital Markets Act case.
Notable move · regulatory settlement 18 August
From 1 October, EU in-app purchase commission falls to 26% from 30%. Apps using an outside payment processor pay 20%, or 10% for small businesses. Purchases through external web links pay 15%, or 10% for small developers The Core Technology Fee is replaced by a 5% Core Technology Commission on digital transactions in apps distributed outside the App Store. Developers may now show Apple's payment system alongside alternatives rather than choosing one The Commission welcomed the changes and said it will monitor implementation. Separately, a German commitment decision dated 13 August gives Apple four months to make its tracking consent prompts neutral across almost all of the EU Closed $310.03, +1.45%, the largest rise of the twelve. Volume ran 14% above its own average
Why it mattersApple gave up revenue and bought certainty, and the market paid for the trade. Services carries much higher margins than hardware, and is why investors accept a premium multiple. So the risk that mattered was never the four points of commission. It was open-ended fines, and a regulator able to redesign the business by decree. Converting that into a known, capped tax makes the Services earnings stream forecastable again. A forecastable stream is worth more per dollar than a contested one.
Already priced in?Partly. A 1.45% gain on Tuesday's settled close, in a session where nine of the twelve fell, is a real reaction rather than a drift. But the fee cut hits revenue from 1 October, while the removal of legal risk is immediate. The two effects will separate over the next two quarters.
Would flip ifThe Commission reopens the case over implementation. Or a large developer routes payments outside the App Store at scale, and the 5% commission fails to hold European Services revenue.
Next date1 October, the new terms take effect. Fourth quarter results 29 October.
Alphabet is in the market with its first Australian dollar bond, expected to price today.
Minor move · bond sale in progress
Up to A$5bn across three, five, ten and twenty year maturities, with ANZ, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and TD Securities as joint lead managers. That would exceed Apple's A$2.25bn deal, the previous record for a corporate bond in Australia Context, from second quarter results in late July. Free cash flow (cash left after spending) was -$5.9bn. That was Alphabet's first negative quarter since its 2004 listing. Capital spending doubled year on year to $44.9bn, against operating cash flow of $39.1bn. Full-year capex guidance is $195bn to $205bn Closed $344.20, +0.06%, effectively unchanged. Final pricing was not confirmed at the time of writing
Why it mattersThis is the day's macro story written as a transaction. Alphabet is borrowing because its own cash no longer covers what it is building. It is doing so into the highest long-term yields in nineteen years. Diversifying into a new currency sensibly widens the buyer base. But the timing shows the buildout is now paced by credit markets, not by operating cash flow.
Already priced in?The stock did not move, which is fair for a funding transaction that changes no forecast. Watch the spread rather than the share price: it is the direct read on what the market charges these companies to build.
Would flip ifThe deal prices well inside guidance and upsizes, showing credit investors will still fund AI capex cheaply. That would ease the pressure on every name on this list.
Next datePricing expected today, 19 August. Third quarter results 28 October.
The Information reported that Tesla has told staff the Cybercab goes on public roads in Austin this month.
Minor move · media report, not confirmed
Employees would ride first, with the vehicles joining the existing Austin robotaxi fleet of roughly 186 Model Ys days later. The Cybercab has no steering wheel or pedals Tesla has not confirmed a date. A rider contest closes 23 August with winners named 25 August, which is the only company-dated marker Closed $336.87, -0.72%, on below-average volume. It sits 32.5% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersA driverless vehicle without controls is the first fleet Tesla could operate at a genuinely different cost per mile, because the driver is the cost. Until a regulator lets it carry paying passengers at scale, though, it changes no revenue line. A press report of an internal plan is not a data event, and the near-flat close says the market treated it that way.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. The 0.72% fall on Tuesday's settled close is smaller than QQQ's and is a non-reaction.
Would flip ifTesla confirms paying public rides with a permit, or the launch slips past August with no explanation.
Next date25 August, contest winners. Third quarter results 21 October.
Read-through
The asymmetry: the market paid for cash today and marked down capacity in 2028
Two companies resolved a real uncertainty on the same day and were treated in opposite ways.
Apple settled with a regulator and gave up money. Its EU commission falls to 26% from 30% on 1 October. The stock rose 1.45%, the largest rise of the twelve.
Nebius cleared the last planning obstacle in front of a $17.4bn contract and gave up nothing. It fell 7.60%.
The difference is not the quality of the news, it is when the cash arrives. Apple's concession lowers near-term revenue and removes an open-ended liability today. Nebius's approval unlocks capacity that produces revenue years out, and years-out revenue is exactly what a 5.32% 30-year yield discounts hardest. On a day when the long bond made a 19-year high, the market paid for certainty it could bank. It marked down everything that still has to be financed.
The read-through runs the length of the list.GOOGL is borrowing up to A$5bn in Australia because its own cash flow turned negative in the second quarter. That same cost of credit sets what MSFT, AMZN and META pay to build. That in turn sets the orders NVDA, MRVL and INTC book. Suppliers move first, and on the thinnest evidence. That is why MRVL fell roughly four and a half times QQQ, with no company event at all.
Nothing material
AMZN · PLTR · MSFT, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What was quiet, what was excluded as old, and what could not be checked
Nothing material.AMZN -0.71%, PLTR -0.59% and MSFT +0.27% had no company announcement dated 18 August. All three traded below their own average volume. Microsoft was one of only three of the twelve to close higher, without any news to explain it.
Excluded as old. Intel's $20bn share sale priced at $95 on 11 August and closed 12 August. Tesla's selection of Intel's 14A process for the Terafab project was announced in April. Amazon's $11.57bn agreement to buy Globalstar dates from 14 April. Nvidia's $21bn SpaceX position came in a 13F filed 14 August, and its $105bn Ohio backstop was 17 August, covered in yesterday's edition. Robinhood's July operating data was published 12 August. Apple's German tracking-consent decision is dated 13 August. All of these recirculated in the past 24 hours as though they were new.
Could not be checked. sec.gov is blocked from this environment, so the Marvell and Robinhood Form 4s could not be read directly and are attributed to the coverage. Alphabet's bond size is a bookrunner report rather than a company statement, and final pricing was not available when this was written. Meta's damages figures come from filings and hearings reported by press. Reports of the trial's expected length differ, from four to six weeks upward.
A note on price windows. Every percentage in this edition is Tuesday's settled close unless stated. Per-ticker premarket quotes were unavailable this morning: the data plan in use refuses extended-hours prices, and no figure was substituted. The only pre-open evidence here is index futures, which were modestly lower and are provisional. Nothing below the index level should be read as a premarket reaction.
Earnings within 14 days
19 AugMacro Federal Reserve minutes of the August meeting, 14:00 ET. GOOGL expected pricing of its first Australian dollar bond
23 AugTSLA robotaxi rider contest closes, winners 25 August. The only company-dated marker for the Cybercab rollout
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27 after the close, seven days out and the nearest results date of the twelve
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, one day after Nvidia and eight days out
dailyMETA youth safety trial, Oakland, running four to six weeks from 18 August
Tue 18 Aug 2026META, NBIS, MSFT, MRVL
The 30-second version
Nvidia agreed to guarantee up to $105bn of an Ohio AI campus, and the stock did not move. The release landed on 17 August. SB Energy will build, own and operate the PORTS-Pike site in Pike County; OpenAI leases it for 20 years from 2028. Nvidia backstops the first 4.25GW and holds an option on 3.75GW more. It also invests $1.5bn in SB Energy. NVDA closed -0.07%, effectively unchanged, and sits 4.87% below its 52-week high, the smallest gap to a high of the twelve.
Meta fell 3.54%, the largest fall of the twelve, the day before its trial opened. Opening arguments in the consolidated action by 29 state attorneys general begin today in federal court in Oakland. Meta has told the court the states seek as much as $1.4tn; lawyers for the states have said $200bn is more likely. Volume ran at 124% of average, the heaviest against its own average of the twelve.
Four of the twelve moved 3% or more, and none of the four moved on its own news.MRVL +5.54%, META -3.54%, NBIS -3.18%, MSFT -3.04%. Three rose and nine fell. Only AMZN, META and MRVL traded above their average volume, so conviction was thin. QQQ finished -0.16%.
Market-wide
The US data on 17 August was strong, and the market fell anyway. At 08:30 ET the New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index came in at 20.6 against 12 expected. That is its best reading in more than four years, up from 15.6 in July. At 10:00 ET the NAHB housing market index printed 35 against 33 expected, up from 34
How it reaches these stocksGood growth data cuts both ways for this list. Stronger manufacturing and housing support demand, but they also remove the argument for a rate cut. Most of what investors pay for NVDA, NBIS, PLTR and MRVL is profit expected years from now. A higher discount rate shrinks a distant profit more than a near one. That is why a good print can sink the longest-dated names. The S&P 500 closed -0.52% at 7,745.06, the Nasdaq Composite -0.32% at 26,644.91.
QQQ finished -0.16%, better than the S&P 500 at -0.52%. That contradicts the simple read. If a hawkish rate signal were driving the day, the long-duration tech index should have lagged, not led
What the gauge is actually sayingThe damage was concentrated, not broad. Three of the twelve here fell 3% or more while the index barely moved. That is a rotation inside technology, not a sell-off of it. Money left the AI capital-spending complex and stayed in the market. Read Monday as a repricing of who pays for the AI buildout, not as a verdict on growth.
Morgan Stanley published a note on hyperscaler creditworthiness on 17 August. It expects combined capital spending at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta to rise 57% in 2027 against 2026. It has again cut its 2027 free cash flow (cash left after spending) forecasts for them
Why an analyst note moved real moneyThis is commentary, not company news, and it still set the tone for the session. The argument is about timing, not returns. The cash goes out to build now and the revenue arrives later, so borrowing fills the gap. The bank puts total AI infrastructure spending at $3.2tn by 2028, with roughly $1.75tn raised in credit markets. That reframes MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL and META as borrowers rather than cash machines.
The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its last meeting on Wednesday 19 August. There was no Fed speaker, tariff ruling or geopolitical event in the past 24 hours that reached these twelve stocks
What to watchThe minutes are the only scheduled macro event this week with the power to move the discount rate applied to these names. Premarket this morning is soft and provisional. QQQ is -1.08% and ten of the twelve are lower, on thin volume that often reverses at the bell.
Nvidia agreed to guarantee up to $105bn behind an Ohio data centre that OpenAI will lease for 20 years.
Minor move · major news · press release 17 August
Nvidia's combined payment obligations under the agreements cannot exceed $105bn. It secures land, power and building shell for an initial 4.25GW of IT load. An option on a further 3.75GW would take the campus to 8GW SB Energy, a SoftBank subsidiary, will build, own and operate the site. OpenAI's lease runs 20 years and begins in phases in 2028. Nvidia invests $1.5bn in SB Energy This is a residual-value guarantee, not rent and not cash. Nvidia pays only if OpenAI defaults, SB Energy fails to re-let the site, then fails to sell it. Only the shortfall is Nvidia's On 14 August the Wall Street Journal reported the backstop had been cut to under $120bn from $250bn discussed earlier. The signed figure came in below the leaked one Huang put the OpenAI opportunity at $600bn of potential revenue by 2030, and said the arrangement is not circular financing. That is a company estimate, not a contract Closed $225.01, -0.07%, on volume 26% below average. Sits 4.87% below its 52-week high of 236.54, the smallest gap to a high of the twelve
Why it mattersNvidia is changing what kind of company it is. Selling chips converts inventory into cash within a quarter. Underwriting the residual value of buildings puts a contingent liability on the balance sheet for two decades, tied to one customer's solvency. Nothing is expensed today, so earnings are untouched. But their quality changes. Some future chip revenue now exists only because Nvidia absorbed a downside a lender would otherwise have priced. Investors set Nvidia's multiple on how durable its demand is. Demand that requires the seller to guarantee the buyer's landlord is less durable than demand that does not.
Already priced in?Largely, and the pre-leak is why. The release landed on 17 August and the stock closed -0.07%, which is no reaction at all. The Journal's 14 August report had already set expectations at under $120bn, so the signed $105bn was a mild relief against $250bn. Premarket is -1.84% and provisional. The open will settle it.
Would flip ifNvidia guarantees the second 3.75GW tranche as well, or strikes a similar backstop with another customer. One deal is a financing bridge for a scarce site. A pattern is vendor financing, and vendor financing has historically preceded the end of a capital-spending cycle rather than extended it.
Next date26 August, second quarter FY27 results after the close. Watch the contingent-liability disclosure in the 10-Q as much as the revenue line.
Meta fell 3.54%, the largest fall of the twelve, the day before opening arguments in a 29-state trial over youth safety.
Major move · trial opens today · 29 state attorneys general
Opening arguments begin 18 August in federal court in Oakland, before Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers. The consolidated action was brought in 2023 and is expected to run seven weeks Meta has told the court the states seek as much as $1.4tn, a figure it calls vastly disproportionate. Lawyers for the states have told the judge $200bn is more likely The claims run under the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act and state consumer-protection statutes. Mark Zuckerberg and Adam Mosseri may be called; no testimony schedule is set Closed $568.97, -3.54%, on volume 124% of average, the heaviest against its own average of the twelve. Sits 28.05% below its 52-week high of 790.80 Reports differ on the damages figures. Both come from filings and hearings rather than a company release, and sec.gov is blocked from this environment
Why it mattersA cash penalty, even a large one, is the smaller risk here. The states also seek changes to how the products work. Meta's advertising revenue rests on engagement, and engagement rests on the exact features under challenge: infinite scroll, push notifications, recommendation ranking. An order to change those is a permanent cut to the growth rate, not a one-off charge. That is why the market pays attention to a trial date rather than waiting for a verdict. Seven weeks of testimony from Meta's own executives also sets the evidentiary base for every private suit that follows.
Already priced in?Partly. The -3.54% is a settled close, on the heaviest volume against average of the twelve. That is real positioning ahead of a known date, not drift. But a seven-week trial cannot be priced on day one. Premarket is -0.74% and provisional.
Would flip ifJudge Gonzalez Rogers narrows the case early, or the states signal they will settle for money rather than product changes. A cash-only outcome Meta can pay from a quarter of free cash flow is a very different security from an injunction on ranking.
Next dateOpening arguments today, 18 August. Trial runs roughly seven weeks. Third quarter results are due 28 October.
Nebius fell 3.18% during the session, then won planning approval for its New Jersey data centre after the close.
Major move · the approval came after the close · 17 August
The Vineland planning board voted to approve Phase 2 on the night of 17 August, after public comment ran past 23:00. Phase 2 adds 600,000 square feet to a project targeting 2.6m square feet Vineland issued two stop-construction orders earlier this month, both for missing permits: 6 August on LNG tank work, 10 August on Bloom Energy fuel cells The site is a 300MW campus. Nebius signed a 10-year agreement with Bloom Energy in May worth up to $2.6bn in service fees, after opposition to the original gas engines Its Microsoft master services agreement, announced in May, is valued at $2.6bn, inside a wider relationship reported above $17bn Closed $268.85, -3.18%, on volume 28% below average. Its intraday range was 6.33% of the closing price, the widest of the twelve
Why it mattersNebius sells contracted compute capacity, so its value is the delivery schedule, not the contracts. A signed agreement that cannot be powered on time is deferred revenue at best and a broken contract at worst. Permits are therefore the binding constraint on the whole model. The stop-work orders put the delivery date at risk; the Phase 2 vote removes that specific risk from the near term. That converts a contested planning application into a construction timetable, which is what a customer like Microsoft is actually buying.
Already priced in?No, and the sequence matters. The -3.18% is a settled close from the session, and the planning vote happened that night, after the market shut. Monday's fall was not a reaction to the approval. Premarket is -0.56%, which is thin and provisional, and does not yet look like a relief move.
Would flip ifVineland lifts the two outstanding stop-construction orders, or issues a third. The Phase 2 approval covers the site design. It does not by itself resolve the unpermitted fuel-cell and LNG work already flagged.
Next dateNo confirmed results date. Third quarter results are estimated for 10 November. Watch Vineland's construction office rather than the calendar.
Microsoft fell 3.04% with no company announcement dated 17 August, on a Morgan Stanley note about hyperscaler credit.
Major move · no company news · analyst credit note
Morgan Stanley expects combined capital spending at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta to rise 57% in 2027 against 2026. It has again cut its 2027 free cash flow forecasts for them The bank puts total AI infrastructure spending at $3.2tn by 2028, with about $1.75tn needing to be raised in credit markets Microsoft carries roughly $129bn of debt against about $77bn of cash. It is expected to generate about $67bn of free cash flow this year after capital spending Closed $480.35, -3.04%, one of four on this list that moved 3% or more, on volume 6% below average. Sits 13.25% below its 52-week high of 553.72 One widely syndicated report put Microsoft below $380 on the day. That is wrong: the closing price was $480.35. Figures here come from the quote data in this edition's snapshot
Why it mattersNothing about Microsoft's business changed on Monday. What changed is the lens. For three years investors valued these companies on how much they could spend; the note asks instead how they will fund it. That switches the relevant number from revenue growth to the gap between capital spending and operating cash flow. A company that must borrow to build is valued more like a utility than like software. Utilities trade at a fraction of the multiple. Microsoft carries more cash and free cash flow against its debt than the other three. That is precisely why a 3% fall on someone else's spreadsheet is worth noting.
Already priced in?The close is settled, but read it as a sector repricing, not a Microsoft event. Below-average volume argues against conviction. Premarket is +0.55%, one of only two of the twelve higher this morning, which looks like a partial reversal. It is thin and provisional.
Would flip ifMicrosoft funds its next capital-spending step from operating cash flow rather than new debt, or guides capital spending down. Either breaks the borrower framing that did the damage.
Next date19 August, Federal Reserve minutes, which move the cost of the borrowing at issue. First quarter FY27 results are estimated for 28 October.
Marvell rose 5.54%, the largest move of the twelve, on an AI networking rally with no company announcement.
Major move · no company news · sector and an analyst report
The move was sector-wide. Credo rose about 8% and Ciena joined, after a Mizuho report on next-generation AI connectivity demand. Marvell traded as high as +7.5% intraday before closing +5.54% The only Marvell filing in the window was a Form 4: CFO Justin Scarpulla surrendered shares worth about $1.77m to cover tax on vesting RSUs. That is administrative, not a sale decision Management has guided optical interconnect revenue to grow above 70% year on year in fiscal 2027, against 20%-plus for custom AI silicon. That guidance is from the last results, not new Closed $234.33, +5.54%, on volume 103% of average. Sits 28.97% below its 52-week high of 329.88 Premarket this morning is -5.48%, the weakest premarket move of the twelve, an 11.0 point swing against Monday's gain
Why it mattersInterconnect is the part of Marvell's business the market has been slowest to credit. Custom AI chips are won and lost on single customer designs, so that revenue is lumpy and concentrated. Optical interconnect sells into every cluster regardless of whose accelerator is inside, which makes it a broader and more repeatable revenue base. A re-rating toward interconnect therefore raises the multiple, not just the forecast. The problem is that nothing happened on Monday to confirm it, which is why the whole move is unwinding before the bell.
Already priced in?This was the pricing, and it is already reversing. Monday's +5.54% came from a third-party report, not from Marvell. Premarket is -5.48%, giving back essentially all of it. Premarket is thin and provisional, but a full round trip on no company news says the Monday move had no anchor.
Would flip ifThe 27 August results confirm interconnect running above the guided 70% growth. That would turn an analyst thesis into a reported number and make the move durable.
Next date27 August, second quarter FY27 results, one day after Nvidia.
Intel rose 0.97% with no company announcement in the window, then fell 4.15% in premarket.
Minor move · no company news dated 17 August
Closed $103.49, +0.97%, on volume 21% below average. Sits 27.30% below its 52-week high of 142.35 The $20bn share offering priced at $95 on 11 August. CEO Lip-Bu Tan's 105,263-share purchase at $95 was dated 11 August and filed 14 August. Both are outside this window and are not news Premarket is -4.15%, the second weakest premarket move of the twelve. No company announcement explains it. Chip weakness is broad, and Sandisk is down about 5.8% on the same tape
Why it mattersIntel now trades on foundry customer wins rather than on its own product cycle, and no such win was announced. Read this morning's fall as the semiconductor complex, not as Intel. Its earnings are thin relative to its capital base, so it takes sector moves with more leverage in both directions.
Already priced in?Monday's +0.97% is settled and reflects no news. This morning's -4.15% is premarket only, thin, and provisional. The open will settle it.
Would flip ifIntel names an external foundry customer with committed volume. That is the only disclosure that changes the equity story.
Alphabet is marketing its first Australian dollar bond, with pricing expected on Wednesday.
Minor move · debt issuance in progress · 17-18 August
Reports put the deal at up to A$5bn, with A$4bn to A$5bn potentially priced on 19 August. Maturities of 3, 5, 10 and 20 years. ANZ, Deutsche Bank, RBC and TD are joint leads The AFR reports that would be the largest corporate bond sale in Australia, passing Apple's $2.25bn in 2015. Kangaroo issuance is at a record A$60bn this year, up about 40% on 2025 Closed $344.00, -0.55%, on volume 28% below average. Sits 15.81% below its 52-week high of 408.61. Size was not confirmed by Alphabet, and reports differ
Why it mattersThis is the Morgan Stanley thesis showing up as an actual transaction. Alphabet holds ample cash, so borrowing in a new currency is about widening the funding base before it is needed, not about covering a shortfall. Doing it in Australian dollars at record scale shows how much debt the AI buildout expects to raise. Issuers are reaching past the dollar market to find it.
Already priced in?Not a factor. The -0.55% close is ordinary drift on light volume. Debt sales by an AA-rated issuer do not move equity unless the size surprises.
Would flip ifThe book prices well above A$5bn, or at a spread that suggests investors are demanding more to fund AI capital spending.
Next date19 August, expected pricing. Third quarter results 28 October.
Apple settled a German antitrust investigation and was sued by a shareholder over AI training data.
Minor move · German regulator settlement · 17 August
Germany's Bundeskartellamt made Apple's commitments on App Tracking Transparency legally binding. Apple has four months from service to implement, and a trustee monitors compliance for seven years A shareholder derivative suit filed 14 August in the Northern District of California alleges directors knowingly allowed copyrighted material to be used in AI training. Derivative suits run on the company's behalf and rarely produce a cash cost to shareholders Closed $305.59, -0.11%, on volume 23% below average. Sits 11.31% below its 52-week high of 344.57. Premarket is +0.73%, the best of the twelve this morning and provisional
Why it mattersThe German settlement removes a live enforcement risk at a small operating cost. Apple must change how it asks for advertising consent and stop treating its own services more favourably. That trims the effectiveness of its advertising business, which is a rounding error against iPhone. The value is in what it ends: a binding settlement is cheaper than an adverse ruling other regulators could then cite.
Already priced in?Yes. The -0.11% close is effectively no reaction. Neither item is large enough to matter to earnings.
Would flip ifThe European Commission uses the German remedy as the template for a broader ATT order covering the single market.
The Information reported that Tesla has told staff it will start a public Cybercab rollout in Austin this month.
Minor move · press report, not a company statement · 17 August
The report, dated 17 August, says rides go to employees on public roads first. Cybercabs join the Austin robotaxi service a few days later. Cybercab has no steering wheel or pedals Tesla has published nothing. There is no filing, no fleet size, no date and no pricing. Every figure would be an inference Closed $339.30, -0.87%, on volume 18% below average. Sits 31.98% below its 52-week high of 498.83
Why it mattersRemoving the steering wheel is what changes the economics, because it removes the driver from the cost base. Until Cybercabs carry paying members of the public, the robotaxi business is a demonstration, and Tesla is valued as a carmaker with an option attached. A rollout date starts the clock on whether that option converts. A press report of an internal plan does not.
Already priced in?Not applicable. Tesla fell 0.87% on the day the report ran, so the market did not treat it as material. Premarket is -1.27% and provisional.
Would flip ifTesla confirms a public launch date, or a regulator publishes a permit. Either turns a report into a fact with a timetable.
Next date21 October, third quarter results.
Read-through
One question ran through the whole session: who carries the financing risk of the AI buildout
Monday's three main stories were the same story told from three positions in the same chain.
Nvidia moved to the bottom of the stack. Guaranteeing up to $105bn of residual value on buildings is what a lender does, not what a chip vendor does. Nvidia took that risk to make the site financeable. A financed site becomes an order for its chips.
Morgan Stanley pointed at the top of the stack. Its note argues Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta must raise roughly $1.75tn in credit markets by 2028. Operating cash flow arrives after the spending does. MSFT fell 3.04% on that argument alone. GOOGL is meanwhile in the market with its first Australian dollar bond, up to A$5bn. That is the same argument as a transaction rather than a forecast.
NBIS is the pure version of the trade. It has no other business to fund the buildout, so a municipal planning vote in New Jersey is a genuine equity event for it. That is why its intraday range was 6.33%, the widest of the twelve.
The read-through to MRVL is the honest one: there wasn't a company event. It rose 5.54% on a third-party report about connectivity demand and is giving all of it back premarket. When capital-spending sentiment moves, the suppliers move first and on the least evidence.
Nothing material
AMZN · PLTR · HOOD, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
The asymmetry, what was excluded as old, and what could not be checked
The asymmetry of the session. Nvidia took on a contingent obligation of up to $105bn and closed -0.07%, barely moving. Microsoft announced nothing at all and fell 3.04%. The difference is not logic, it is expectation. Nvidia's number had leaked on 14 August at under $120bn against $250bn discussed earlier, so the signed figure arrived as relief. Microsoft's re-rating arrived unannounced, from a bank's spreadsheet. Markets price the gap between news and expectation, not the size of the news.
Excluded as old. Intel's $20bn offering priced at $95 on 11 August, and CEO Lip-Bu Tan's $10m purchase was dated 11 August and filed 14 August. Neither is news in this window, despite heavy weekend coverage. The Vineland stop-construction orders date from 6 and 10 August. Nebius's Bloom Energy and Microsoft agreements are both from May. Berkshire's Alphabet purchase and the other 13Fs were 14 August and were covered in yesterday's edition. Meta's capital spending guidance of $130bn to $145bn and its 31% operating margin come from second quarter results reported in late July. They are not from this window, though they recirculated in Monday's trial coverage.
Could not be checked. sec.gov is blocked from this environment, so Nvidia's 8-K and the Marvell Form 4 could not be read directly and are attributed to the coverage. Alphabet's bond size is a bookrunner report, not a company statement, and reports differ between A$4bn and A$5bn. Meta's damages figures come from filings and hearings reported by press. One widely syndicated article put Microsoft below $380 on Monday, which is simply wrong: it closed $480.35.
Nothing material.AMZN -0.51%, PLTR -0.86% and HOOD +0.72% had no company announcement dated 17 August. Amazon traded above its average volume, the only one of the three to do so, but on no news.
A note on the premarket. Ten of the twelve are lower as this is written, with QQQ at -1.08%. Only AAPL and MSFT are higher. Premarket volume is thin and reverses often. Nothing here should be read as the market having decided anything before the bell.
Charts. All twelve daily series are current to 17 August. Some intraday series redrew from cache, which does not affect the daily charts.
19 AugMacro Federal Reserve minutes. GOOGL expected pricing of its first Australian dollar bond
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27 after the close, eight days out and the nearest results date of the twelve
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, one day after Nvidia and nine days out
no dateTSLA Cybercab Austin rollout, reported as this month, unconfirmed by the company
Mon 17 Aug 2026NBIS, HOOD, PLTR, INTC
The 30-second version
Berkshire nearly doubled its Alphabet position. Its quarterly 13F, filed after Friday's close, shows 48.1m shares added in the second quarter, an 83% increase. That takes the holding to roughly 106m Class A and C shares, worth about $36.6bn at Friday's close. Alphabet is now Berkshire's third largest holding. Berkshire was a net buyer of $19.8bn of equities, ending 14 straight quarters of net selling. GOOGL closed -0.13% on Friday, hours before the filing landed.
Nvidia disclosed a $21bn SpaceX stake for the first time. The same 14 August 13F shows 122.8m SpaceX Class A shares, and 214.8m Intel shares worth about $30bn at 30 June. Nvidia paid $23.28 a share for that Intel block, roughly $5bn. Share count was unchanged on the quarter: the gain is Intel's price, not fresh buying.
Friday was a macro session, not a company one. July retail sales fell 0.6% on the month against +0.1% expected. Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 51.0 from 55.2. Nine of the twelve fell. Ten of the twelve traded below their average volume, so conviction behind the move was thin.
Market-wide
July retail sales landed at 08:30 ET on 14 August and were weak. Sales fell 0.6% on the month against +0.1% expected. Stripping out cars and petrol, they fell 0.2% against +0.3% expected. At 10:00 ET the University of Michigan's preliminary August consumer sentiment index fell 4.2 points to 51.0, from 55.2 in July
How it reaches these stocksThis print splits the list in two. For the companies that sell to households directly, weaker spending is a revenue cut you can trace: fewer phones, smaller baskets, fewer cars. AAPL, AMZN and TSLA sit on that side. For the AI infrastructure names the effect runs the other way and arrives through interest rates. A soft consumer makes a rate cut more likely, and a lower rate raises what investors will pay today for profits arriving years out. That is most of what NBIS, PLTR and NVDA are priced on. The two effects partly cancel, which is why an ugly print produced a flat index.
QQQ closed 731.07, -0.14%, and sits 2.35% below its 52-week high of 748.65
Does the gauge agreeIt agrees, and the breadth is the tell. Six of the twelve beat the index and nine still fell. That is what a soft macro day looks like when nobody has a company reason to trade. Volume confirms it. Only TSLA, at 41% above average, and NBIS, at 2% above, traded more than usual. PLTR fell 2.78% on volume 62% below its average, the lightest participation of the twelve. A fall on thin volume is a fall nobody defended, not a verdict.
Semiconductors are bid this morning, before the open.MRVL is +2.92% premarket, the largest premarket gain of the twelve, with NBIS +2.28% and INTC +2.13% behind it. QQQ futures point to +0.56%. Memory and storage names outside this list are leading
Read this provisionallyNone of these three has published anything this morning. Premarket volume is thin and reverses often, so treat the whole move as unsettled until the open. What it looks like is a sector bid in memory and storage spreading into the wider chip complex, not three separate company stories. If it holds through the first hour it is a sector day. If it fades by 10:00 ET it was a handful of orders in an empty book.
The week ahead is a consumer week. Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe's all report. The Empire State index and the NAHB housing index come today
Why it matters hereFriday's retail sales number is a government estimate. The big-box results are the same question answered by the firms themselves, with actual baskets. If they confirm the slowdown, the consumer-facing names on this list carry it into their own quarters. If they contradict it, Friday's print gets marked down as noise and the rate-cut trade that supported the AI names loses some of its support.
Items · sorted by size
▲ GOOGLChart-0.13% · Friday close, before the filing
Berkshire Hathaway's 13F, filed after Friday's close, shows it added 48.1m Alphabet shares in the second quarter. Alphabet separately hired banks on Monday for its first Australian dollar bond.
Minor move · 13F filed after the close · 14 August
Berkshire added 48.1m shares, an 83% increase, taking the holding to roughly 106m Class A and C shares Worth about $36.6bn at Friday's close, now Berkshire's third largest equity position, behind Apple About 60% of the shares added came from a $10bn private placement Alphabet sold Berkshire directly, announced in early June. The rest, roughly $7bn, was bought in the open market Berkshire was a net buyer of $19.8bn of equities in the quarter, ending 14 consecutive quarters of net selling. Portfolio $299.3bn across 29 positions On 17 August Alphabet mandated ANZ, Deutsche Bank, RBC and TD for an inaugural Australian dollar bond. Maturities of 3, 5, 10 and 20 years. No size was given in the bookrunner message Closed $345.90, -0.13%, on volume 36% below average. Sits 15.35% below its 52-week high of 408.61
Why it mattersBerkshire buys businesses it expects to still exist and still earn in twenty years, and it is famously reluctant to pay for technology. A position that size says Alphabet's earnings are durable rather than cyclical. That is the exact question the AI spending boom has opened up about every large advertiser. That reframes the capital budget. Money spent on data centres reads as investment if the franchise is safe, and as a defensive cost if it is not. The bond mandate makes the same point from the other side. Alphabet is funding its buildout with debt rather than cash flow. That preserves the cash but adds fixed charges it has to earn back.
Already priced in?No. The filing landed after Friday's close, so Friday's -0.13% was not a reaction to it. Premarket is the only read and it is provisional on thin volume. The open will settle it.
Would flip ifThe next 13F, in November, shows Berkshire selling back down. A stake built partly through a placement the company arranged is not the same signal as one bought in the market. A quick reversal would say the placement was the whole story.
Next date28 October, third quarter results. The next 13F is mid-November.
● NVDAChart-0.06% · Friday close, before the filing
Nvidia's 13F, filed on 14 August, disclosed a $21bn SpaceX holding for the first time and confirmed it still owns 214.8m Intel shares.
Minor move · 13F filed after the close · 14 August
122.8m SpaceX Class A shares worth about $21bn at 30 June, a first-time disclosure and now the second largest position The stake came from a $10bn investment in xAI in January, converted when SpaceX acquired xAI in February at a reported $1.25tn valuation. Reports differ on that valuation and it is not from a filing 214.8m Intel shares worth roughly $30bn, about 44% of the disclosed portfolio. Bought at $23.28 a share, roughly $5bn Share count in Intel was unchanged on the quarter. The rise in value is Intel's share price, not new buying Total disclosed equity portfolio about $63.4bn. Closed $225.16, -0.06%, the narrowest gap to a 52-week high of the twelve at 4.81%
Why it mattersA 13F does not change Nvidia's chip business, but it changes what the share price is measuring. Most of the disclosed equity book sits in two companies that are themselves large Nvidia customers. So a slice of Nvidia's balance sheet now moves with its own end demand rather than against it. That removes diversification precisely where an investor would look for it. Quarterly marks on these stakes will also swing reported earnings in ways the chip business did not cause. Investors pay a lower multiple for profits they cannot forecast.
Already priced in?Not from Friday. The filing came after the close, and -0.06% is as close to unchanged as any close on the list, with Marvell at -0.07% beside it. Volume was 34% below average. Any premarket reaction is provisional and small relative to what results on 26 August will do.
Would flip ifNvidia discloses on 26 August that it is marking these stakes through the income statement at scale. That converts a disclosure into an earnings-quality problem investors have to price every quarter.
Next date26 August, Q2 FY27 results after the close, with written CFO commentary posted the same afternoon.
Nebius rose 8.88%, the largest gain of the twelve, still repricing its 12 August results rather than anything announced on Friday.
Major move · no company event dated Friday · results were 12 August
Second quarter revenue $582.3m, up 454% on the year. Annualised run-rate revenue $3bn Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $236m, a 41% margin, a first at this scale Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed at $3bn to $3.4bn revenue, a 40% EBITDA margin, and capital spending of $20bn to $25bn Contracted power target raised to 5GW by year-end. Backlog, meaning revenue already under contract, above $40bn: more than ten years of revenue at the current run rate Four contracts signed in the quarter each above $1bn total value. Closed $277.68, +8.88%, on volume 2% above average. Sits 7.40% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersThe number that sets Nebius's price is not revenue, it is contracted power. Compute revenue is capped by the megawatts you can energise, so gigawatts under contract is the ceiling on every future year of sales. Raising that target to 5GW lifts the ceiling, which is why the stock moves on a power figure rather than an earnings figure. The risk sits in the same place. Capital spending of $20bn to $25bn against $3bn of revenue means the backlog has to convert on schedule. Every quarter of delay is interest paid on plant that is not yet earning.
Already priced in?Friday's close is settled, and the market has now had three sessions to price a Wednesday report, so the easy part is done. Volume only 2% above average suggests momentum rather than fresh buying. There is no company event to price, which is itself the flag: an 8.88% move on no news is a crowded position, not a valuation.
Would flip ifA customer prepayment is renegotiated or a contract slips. The backlog is the whole case. It is concentrated in four counterparties, at least one a private AI lab with no published accounts.
Next dateThird quarter results, expected around 10 November, unconfirmed.
Robinhood fell 3.83%, the largest fall of the twelve, with no company announcement dated Friday.
Major move · no company news · sector and giveback
Closed $95.56, -3.83%, giving back most of Thursday's +4.70% but still above Wednesday's $94.91 Volume 14.0m against a 15.3m average, 8% below normal. There was no unusual participation behind the fall Sits 37.89% below its 52-week high of 153.86, the widest gap to a high of the twelve The July operating data that drove Thursday's gain was published on 12 August. Nothing has been published since
Why it mattersRobinhood earns on retail trading activity, so it is the most direct read on household risk appetite of anything on this list. A retail sales miss and a four-point drop in sentiment land harder here than at a company selling to enterprises. The same squeezed household is both the customer and the trader. The move is not a judgement on Thursday's operating numbers. It is the market repricing how much discretionary money reaches a brokerage account over the next few quarters.
Already priced in?The close is settled, but read it as a macro reaction, not a company one. Thursday's +4.70% came from the July metrics and Friday's -3.83% came from the consumer data. Both are real, and they are about different things.
Would flip ifThe big-box retailers report solid numbers this week. That would take the consumer-weakness read off the table, and the stock most exposed to it recovers most.
Next dateEarly September, August operating metrics, on the monthly cadence the company has confirmed.
▲ AMZNChart-0.94% · Friday close, before the filing
Thiel Macro's 13F, filed 14 August, shows Amazon as the largest position in a portfolio rebuilt from nothing after two quarters of zero disclosed holdings.
Minor move · 13F disclosure · 14 August
$118m in Amazon, 28% of a $418.7m disclosed portfolio, the fund's largest single holding The fund reported zero holdings for the two prior quarters. This is a rebuild, not an addition Roughly 72% of the rest went to power and energy: American Electric Power, CMS Energy, DTE Energy, FirstEnergy, Vista Energy and the nuclear developer X-Energy Closed $262.65, -0.94%, on volume 36% below average. Sits 8.55% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersTake the size seriously and the signal loosely. $118m is not a flow that moves a company of Amazon's size, and nobody should buy Amazon because Peter Thiel did. What is worth reading is the shape of the portfolio around it. A manager puts almost three quarters of a book into utilities and nuclear, then makes his largest single bet a cloud provider. That is one view expressed twice. The binding constraint on AI is electricity, and whoever owns the generation or the data centres consuming it collects the scarcity rent. Amazon here is a power position wearing a retail name.
Already priced in?Friday's -0.94% came before the filing and reflected the retail sales miss, which hits Amazon's shopping business directly. The 13F is unpriced. Premarket is the first read and it is provisional.
Would flip ifAWS capacity growth slows in the third quarter. The power thesis only pays if Amazon can energise data centres faster than demand grows. A capacity-constrained quarter turns scarcity from an asset into a cap on revenue.
Next date29 October, third quarter results, estimated.
Palantir fell 2.78% with no company announcement dated Friday, on the thinnest volume of the twelve.
Notable move · no company news · lightest volume of the twelve
Closed $174.04, -2.78%, after rising 4.66% on Thursday Volume 24.0m against a 63.1m average, 62% below normal and the lightest participation of the twelve Sits 16.13% below its 52-week high of 207.52 Second quarter results were reported on 3 August. Nothing company-specific has been published since
Why it mattersPalantir carries one of the highest multiples on this list, which means most of its value sits in profits assumed to arrive many years out. Those distant profits react hardest to the rate used to discount them, so high-multiple names swing further on macro prints in both directions. The volume matters as much as the price here. A fall on 62% below-average volume is a handful of sellers meeting an empty book on a summer Friday, not a change of view.
Already priced in?The close is settled, but on this volume it should be read as noise rather than repricing. Nothing about the business changed on Friday.
Would flip ifThe big-box retailers confirm a consumer slowdown and the rate-cut expectation strengthens. High-multiple names would recover fastest for the same reason they fell.
Next date2 November, third quarter results, estimated.
Intel fell 1.97% on no news dated Friday. Its $20bn share offering was priced on 11 August and closed on 12 August, though it ran heavily in weekend coverage.
Notable move · the offering is old news · priced 11 August
The offering: 210,526,315 shares at $95, upsized from $15bn, with an order book of about $100bn. Net proceeds about $19.7bn. Priced 11 August, closed 12 August Closed $102.50, -1.97%, below the $95 issue price only by the margin the stock has held since. Volume 95.1m against a 110.1m average Sits 27.99% below its 52-week high of 142.35 The only new Intel datapoint in this window sits in someone else's filing. Nvidia still held 214.8m shares at 30 June, bought for about $5bn
Why it mattersA share sale this size resets the arithmetic behind every per-share figure. Adding 210.5m shares divides future foundry profits among more owners. The same business is worth less per share even as it becomes better funded. The drift lower since pricing is the ordinary mechanics of that. Investors who bought the placement at $95 to flip it are still selling. Anyone who wanted stock got it at a discount, not in the market. Nothing about the company changed on Friday.
Already priced in?Yes, and priced a week ago. Friday's fall is post-offering supply, not a reaction. Anyone reading weekend coverage of the offering as fresh news is reading a 11 August event.
Would flip ifIntel names a committed external foundry customer with a dollar value attached. The capital raise answers whether Intel can build the plants; it says nothing about who will fill them.
The US Commerce Secretary said publicly that the administration opposes Apple buying memory chips from Chinese suppliers, reported 14 and 15 August.
Minor move · regulatory pressure, no dollar figure · 14-15 August
Apple has been testing memory from CXMT for products sold in China, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Apple has not confirmed this CXMT sits on the 1260H Chinese Military Company list and on an updated Pentagon list. No formal restriction on Apple has been issued Senators raised the same objection on 29 July. Only the Commerce Secretary's remarks are new Closed $305.93, +0.22%, one of only three gains among the twelve. Volume 40% below average. Sits 11.21% below its 52-week high
Why it mattersMemory is in genuine shortage because AI servers are consuming it. Shortage means Apple's component costs rise unless it can widen its supplier list. Closing off Chinese suppliers narrows that list to Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron at exactly the moment they have pricing power. The cost lands in gross margin, one of the lines Apple's valuation turns on. Investors treat that margin as proof its pricing power is intact. No dollar figure exists yet, which is why the market has largely ignored it.
Already priced in?No, and reasonably so. +0.22% is not a reaction to anything. This is political pressure without a rule attached, and there is nothing to price until a restriction or a supply contract exists.
Would flip ifCommerce issues an actual restriction, or Apple signs a long-term memory contract at a disclosed price. Either turns a warning into a number in the cost line.
Next date29 October, fourth quarter results, estimated, where memory costs would first show in gross margin guidance.
Read-through
What the 13Fs actually said, and the trap in reading them
Three of Friday's filings point the same way. Berkshire bought Alphabet. Thiel Macro put 28% of a rebuilt portfolio into Amazon and roughly 72% into electricity and nuclear names. Nvidia's largest disclosed equity holding is a chip fabricator. None of these is a bet on a model or an app. All three are bets on the layer underneath: compute, power and the plants that make the silicon.
The trap is the date. A 13F reports holdings as of 30 June, published six weeks later. It says what a manager owned a quarter ago, not what they own now. Nvidia's Intel stake shows the gap. It was worth about $30bn on 30 June, and materially less by mid-August after Intel's $20bn share sale on 11 August diluted the count. Treat these as a map of a quarter that has already ended.
One live read-through does survive. Nvidia holds 214.8m Intel shares it paid about $5bn for. That is a live link between two names on this list. A swing in INTC moves an asset on NVDA's balance sheet, and Nvidia reports on 26 August.
Nothing material
TSLA · MSFT · META · MRVL, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not news, what could not be checked, and one asymmetry
Nothing on this list announced company news dated Friday 14 August. Every item in this edition is either a 13F filed after Friday's close, a weekend report, or a Monday morning item. Friday's session was traded on the retail sales and sentiment data alone.
Excluded as old. Intel's $20bn share offering was priced on 11 August at $95 and closed on 12 August. It ran heavily in weekend coverage and is not news from this window. Nebius reported second quarter results on 12 August, not Friday. Berkshire's exit from Amazon was a first quarter trade, disclosed in May. Senators' warnings to Apple over Chinese memory chips date from 29 July: only the Commerce Secretary's remarks are new.
Could not be checked. sec.gov is blocked from this environment, so every 13F figure here comes from press coverage of the filings rather than the filings themselves. One report put Alphabet's Australian bond at $3.6bn; the Reuters account of the bookrunner message gives no size, so no size is stated above. One outlet described Berkshire's Alphabet stake as tripled and another Nvidia's Intel position as halved. Neither matches the share counts, and both are excluded.
The asymmetry.GOOGL and META run the same business model and are spending similarly on AI. Berkshire bought one of them. Meta closed -0.86% and sits 25.92% below its 52-week high, against Alphabet's 15.35%. The market charges Meta for the same capital spending it is now forgiving at Alphabet. Alphabet owns the cloud and the chips it spends on. Meta rents them.
MRVL published nothing and closed -0.07% on Friday, but is +2.92% premarket, the largest premarket gain of the twelve. That is the memory and storage bid described above, not a Marvell event, and it is provisional until the open. MSFT closed -0.30% and shows the weakest premarket of the twelve at -0.69%. It is one of three lower in both windows, with PLTR and META. Three were higher in both: AAPL, TSLA and NBIS.
TSLA rose 0.68% on volume 41% above average, the heaviest of the twelve, with no dated company event. Weekend speculation about a SpaceX combination is not a filing and is excluded.
Earnings within 14 days
17 AugMacro Empire State index and NAHB housing index, today
18-21 AugConsumer Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe's report, the live test of Friday's retail sales print
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27 after the close, nine days out and the nearest results date of the twelve
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, one day after Nvidia and ten days out
early SepHOOD August operating metrics, monthly, company-confirmed cadence
Robinhood rose 4.70% to $99.37, the largest gain of the twelve. July operating data, published after Wednesday's close, showed event contracts of 6.1bn, up 20x on the year. Options contracts were 324m, up 66%. Crypto notional volume was $10.9bn, down 62% on the year and 33% on the month. Thursday was the first full session to price it.
A soft producer price print lifted ten of the twelve. July PPI was flat on the month against +0.2% expected, and the annual rate fell to 4.7% from 5.5%. Only AMZN -0.80% and NBIS -1.60% fell. Six beat QQQ's +1.16%. This was a macro day, not a company day.
Apple lost its Supreme Court stay after Thursday's close, and the market has not priced it. Justice Kagan denied the pause at 17:00 ET. The district court can now proceed to set what Apple may charge on purchases made outside the App Store. AAPL closed +1.00% before the order landed. Premarket -0.09%.
Market-wide
July producer prices landed at 08:30 ET on 13 August and came in soft. The index was flat on the month against +0.2% expected. The annual rate fell to 4.7% from 5.5%, its lowest since March. Core producer prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 0.2%. Initial jobless claims were 209,000 and continuing claims 1,777,000
How it reaches these stocksProducer prices are what firms receive rather than what shoppers pay, so they lead consumer prices by a few months. A flat month says the oil spike sitting in headline inflation has not yet worked into the pipeline. That takes a rate rise off the table and puts a cut back on it. These twelve are priced on profits arriving years out. The rate used to discount those profits therefore matters more to them than to the market overall. That is why a macro print moved them further than the index.
QQQ closed 732.07, +1.16%, and sits 2.21% below its 52-week high of 748.65
Does the gauge agreeIt agrees, and the contrast with Wednesday is the useful part. On Wednesday QQQ rose while seven of these twelve fell, carried by its largest members. On Thursday ten of the twelve rose and six beat the index. Breadth like that is the signature of a macro print rather than a company event. When one company drives a day, the index and its members disagree. When a rate expectation moves, they line up.
Robinhood rose 4.70% as Thursday's session priced the July operating data it published after Wednesday's close.
Major move · July operating data priced a day late · 13 August
Event contracts traded 6.1bn in July, up 20x on the year and down 5% on the month Options contracts traded 324m, up 66% on the year and 2% on the month Crypto notional volume $10.9bn, down 62% on the year and 33% on the month. The Robinhood app's own share of that was $4.3bn, down 74% on the year Funded customers 28.5m, up 1.77m on the year. Total platform assets $355bn, up 19% on the year and down 4% on the month. Net deposits $5.6bn Closed $99.37, +4.70%, the largest gain of the twelve. Volume 16.1m against a 16.2m average, almost exactly in line
Why it mattersRobinhood is swapping one revenue line for another, and the two are not worth the same multiple. Crypto trading arrives in bursts tied to a cycle nobody at the company controls, so investors discount it heavily. Event contracts and options are habitual, and habitual order flow can be forecast. Trading a shrinking cyclical line for a growing recurring one raises the quality of the earnings, not just the level. Quality is what sets the multiple.
Already priced in?Now it is. The data landed after Wednesday's close, so Wednesday's +0.56% was not a reaction to it. Thursday was the first full session with the numbers and 4.70% is a real response. The last extended-hours print was +0.23%, from Thursday evening rather than this morning, so there is no fresh premarket read.
Would flip ifAugust metrics show event contracts falling again on the month. July was already down 5% from June. A second monthly decline turns a growth line into a fad and takes the multiple back down with it.
Next dateEarly September, August operating metrics, on a monthly cadence the company has confirmed.
Palantir rose 4.66% with nothing announced, reversing Wednesday's move out of AI software.
Major move · no company news · sector reversal
No dated company event on 13 August. Q2 results were 3 August and the Pentagon sole-source memo was dated 4 August. Neither is new Closed $179.01, +4.66%, the second largest gain of the twelve That reversed Wednesday's 2.23% fall and then some, with no company event on either day Volume 36.3m against a 63.6m average, 43% below it. That was the lightest participation of the twelve Premarket -0.84%, the weakest premarket of the twelve, provisional
Why it mattersThis is the sector, and it is worth naming plainly. Palantir earns nowhere near enough today to justify its price, so almost all of that price is profit assumed to arrive years from now. Move the rate those future profits are discounted at and the whole valuation moves, without a single thing changing inside the business. Thursday's producer price print moved that rate. The below-average volume says the same thing: a rise this size on the lightest turnover of the twelve is repricing, not accumulation.
Already priced in?There is nothing company-specific to price. The move is macro, and the premarket giving back 0.84% is consistent with that: rate-driven moves do not stick the way news-driven ones do. Provisional, and the open will settle it.
Would flip ifThe August jobs or CPI print comes in hot. The same mechanism that lifted Palantir on Thursday works identically in reverse, and faster.
Next dateQ3 results, early November. Nothing scheduled before then.
Sweden's IF Metall called off a 1,021-day strike against Tesla, and the stock rose 3.80%.
Major move · Swedish strike called off · 13 August
IF Metall announced on 13 August that it will suspend industrial action from 19 August. Roughly 80 union members were bought out rather than covered by an agreement The dispute began in October 2023 and is the longest strike in Swedish history Closed $339.96, +3.80%, the third largest gain of the twelve. Volume 33.3m against a 31.2m average, one of only three of the twelve above its own average Tesla sits 31.85% below its 52-week high of $498.83, the third widest gap of the twelve The $16.8bn Terafab commitment with SpaceX was announced 6 August and is not news in this window
Why it mattersEighty people is nothing against Tesla's payroll, so read this as precedent rather than cost. What ended was a three-year test of whether a company can operate at scale in a collective-bargaining country without ever signing an agreement. Tesla passed it by paying people to leave. Other European unions were using Sweden as the template, and that template just failed. It changes the expected cost of scaling sales and service across Europe, which is a multi-year revenue question, not a this-quarter margin one.
Already priced in?Only partly, and be careful here. An 80-person settlement cannot be worth 3.80% of Tesla. The bulk of the move is the producer price print, because rate expectations reach Tesla's end customer directly, through the car loan. Premarket +0.60%, provisional.
Would flip ifSympathy actions from Swedish dockworkers, postal and electrical unions continue anyway. The strike's real bite was always the blockades on registration plates and deliveries, not the eighty mechanics.
Next date19 August, when the industrial action formally lapses. Then Q3 deliveries in early October.
Intel rose 3.58% to $104.56 with nothing announced, as the shares it sold this week kept finding buyers.
Major move · no company news · offering still being absorbed
Closed $104.56, +3.58%. That is 10.06% above the $95 offer price, up from 6.3% above it on Wednesday Volume 112.0m against a 111.0m average, one of only three of the twelve to trade above its own average The $20bn offering closed on 12 August and raised roughly $19.7bn net. There was no new company announcement on 13 August Premarket +1.97%, the largest premarket gain of the twelve, provisional
Why it mattersA company that sells $20bn of new stock normally trades below its offer price for weeks. Everyone who wanted the shares now has them, and the marginal buyer has gone. Intel is doing the opposite two days out, and on above-average volume. That says the buyers were long-term holders rather than traders flipping an allocation. It matters beyond the price. It lowers the cost of the next raise, and a foundry build of this size will need more than one.
Already priced in?The offering itself is priced. What is not priced is whether the money produces a foundry customer. Nothing on Thursday spoke to that. The premarket gain is the largest of the twelve but is thin and provisional.
Would flip ifA named external customer fails to appear for the 18A process by the autumn. The equity raise buys roughly a year of capital spending, not a customer list.
Next dateQ3 results in late October, the first to show the cash on the balance sheet and the share count that came with it.
Meta signed a national partnership with North America's Building Trades Unions covering AI data centre construction.
Major move · national labour agreement for data centre construction · 12 August
Announced 12 August. It is Meta's first formal national agreement with organised labour It folds the unions' apprenticeship network into Meta's America's Workforce Academy, a $115m first-year programme launched in June 2026 with non-union contractors. The combined programme now covers both labour markets at once Training is aimed at high-voltage systems, cooling, fire suppression and secure fibre, the trades that gate a data centre opening Closed $594.97, +2.78%. Volume 10.9m against a 16.1m average, 32% below it Meta guided to $135bn of 2026 capital spending at its Q2 results. This agreement concerns who builds that, not how much it costs
Why it mattersThe binding constraint on Meta's buildout is not money, it is electricians. A data centre earns nothing until it is energised, so every month of schedule slip is a month of depreciation against no revenue. Securing a trained pipeline converts an open-ended schedule risk into a known cost line. On a $135bn annual programme, pulling openings forward by even a quarter matters. It changes when the return on that spending shows up in the numbers investors watch.
Already priced in?Partly. The 2.78% came on volume 32% below average, so this was not a crowd reacting to a labour agreement. Most of the day was the macro print. Premarket -0.12%, effectively flat and provisional.
Would flip ifMeta trims its capital spending guidance. A workforce pipeline is only worth something if the campuses it staffs are still being built.
Next date24 August, when Manus deletes user data as its separation from Meta completes.
▲ AAPLChart+1.00% · Thursday close, before the order
Justice Kagan denied Apple's request to pause the App Store commission proceedings, after Thursday's close.
Notable move · Supreme Court denied Apple's stay, after the close · 13 August
Kagan granted a one-day administrative stay on 12 August, then denied the longer stay on 13 August at 17:00 ET, after the close The district court may now proceed to decide what Apple can charge on purchases made outside the App Store. Apple's 27% commission on those purchases is what the contempt finding was about The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the underlying contempt appeal. This order decides timing only Closed $305.26, +1.00%, before the order landed. Premarket -0.09%, effectively flat Volume 38.5m against a 56.8m average, 32% below it
Why it mattersServices is the part of Apple that investors pay the highest multiple for, because it recurs and carries software margins. The link-out commission sits inside that line, and a judge rather than Apple will now set its rate. A rate set by a court is one Apple cannot raise later, so the line stops compounding at Apple's discretion. That caps something investors had been extrapolating, which matters more to the multiple than to this year's revenue.
Already priced in?No, and this is the clearest unpriced item on the list. The order came after the close, so Thursday's +1.00% is not a reaction to it. Premarket -0.09% says the market is treating a procedural denial as procedural. The open will settle it.
Would flip ifThe Supreme Court rules for Apple on the contempt appeal it has agreed to hear. Thursday's order decided the timetable, not the merits.
Next dateThe district court's rate proceeding resumes. No date has been set publicly.
Marvell rose 2.35% with nothing announced, thirteen days before its results.
Notable move · no company news · semiconductor rally
No dated company event on 13 August. The AI memory product launch was 12 August and is not new Closed $222.18, +2.35%. Volume 18.6m against a 21.5m average, 14% below it Marvell sits 32.65% below its 52-week high of $329.88, the second widest gap of the twelve Premarket +1.58%, provisional
Why it mattersMarvell sells custom silicon to a handful of very large customers, so its value tracks their capital budgets rather than any end market. Applied Materials reported after Thursday's close that orders for leading-edge logic and advanced packaging are accelerating. That is the equipment which makes exactly what Marvell designs, and it is the earliest evidence in the chain that the volumes are still coming.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price. The move is the semiconductor complex plus the macro print. Premarket +1.58%, thin and provisional.
Would flip ifA hyperscaler brings a custom chip programme in-house. Marvell's revenue is concentrated enough that one lost design changes the growth rate.
Next date27 August, Q2 FY27, exactly thirteen days out and one day after Nvidia.
Nebius fell 1.60%, the largest fall of the twelve, giving back part of Wednesday's 34.14% rise.
Notable move · no company news · giving back Wednesday
No dated company event on 13 August. Coverage recirculated the Reflection AI compute contract, which was announced 14 July, and the Meta infrastructure agreement, announced 16 March. Neither is new Closed $255.04, -1.60%. Traded as high as $275.96 and as low as $247.38, a range of 11.6% in one session Volume 36.0m against a 27.9m average, 1.29x, the heaviest participation relative to its own average of the twelve Premarket +1.94%, provisional
Why it mattersA stock that rises 34% in a day has no settled price the morning after. The eleven per cent range is the market arguing with itself. The question is what a 454% growth rate is worth once the spending needed to produce it reaches $20-25bn a year. Nothing inside the business changed on Thursday. What is unresolved is how much of that growth is bought rather than earned, and buyers and sellers put the answer eleven per cent apart.
Already priced in?Unsettled rather than priced. A 1.60% give-back after 34.14% is noise on the heaviest relative volume here. Premarket +1.94%, provisional and not a verdict.
Would flip ifNebius announces how it will fund the raised $20-25bn capital plan. Debt, equity or customer prepayments are three very different answers for existing holders.
Next dateQ3 results in November. No scheduled event before then.
Amazon fell 0.80% with nothing dated announced, one of only two of the twelve to fall.
Minor move · no company news · one of only two fallers
No dated company event on 13 August. The New Jersey antitrust suit was filed 4 August and the Bezos Rule 10b5-1 filing was 6 August. Neither is new Closed $265.13, -0.80%. Volume 30.4m against a 52.7m average, 42% below it Amazon sits 7.68% below its 52-week high of $287.20, the second smallest gap of the twelve
Why it mattersFalling on a day when a soft inflation print lifted ten of the twelve is the notable part, not the size. Amazon carries the largest consumer business here, so a print that cuts rate expectations should help it more than most. It did not. On volume 42% below average, that is more likely drift than a decision.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. Premarket +0.14%, provisional.
Would flip ifAWS capacity commitments are updated. The cloud line, not retail, sets Amazon's multiple now.
Microsoft rose 0.90% with nothing announced, below QQQ's 1.16%.
Minor move · no company news · lagged the index
No dated company event on 13 August Closed $496.88, +0.90%. Volume 22.6m against a 38.3m average, 41% below it Premarket -0.18%, provisional
Why it mattersMicrosoft is the clearest example of the day's split. It funds AI capacity out of profits it already earns. So a lower discount rate helps it less than it helps a company whose profits are entirely in the future. That is why it trailed the index while Palantir and Tesla beat it.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. The move is macro and partial.
Alphabet rose 0.82% with nothing announced on the day.
Minor move · no company news · lagged the index
No dated company event on 13 August. The $25bn senior notes offering closed 10 August and is not new Closed $346.36, +0.82%. Volume 17.6m against a 30.4m average, 42% below it Premarket +0.13%, provisional
Why it mattersSame mechanism as Microsoft. Alphabet's profits are earned now rather than assumed later. A move in rate expectations therefore does less to its valuation than to the speculative end of this list.
Nvidia rose 0.54% with nothing announced, less than half QQQ's move.
Minor move · no company news · twelve days to results
No dated company event on 13 August. Commerce testimony calling H200 shipments to China trivial was given 14 July and is not new Closed $225.30, +0.54%. Volume 93.6m against a 120.1m average, 22% below it Nvidia sits 4.75% below its 52-week high of $236.54, the smallest gap of the twelve Premarket +0.47%, provisional
Why it mattersNvidia barely moved on a day that lifted almost everything else, and the reason is the calendar. Twelve days before results, positions get set rather than changed. It also sits nearer its 52-week high than any of the other eleven. That leaves it less room to absorb a disappointment.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific to price. The near-flat close on below-average volume is a stock waiting.
Would flip ifApplied Materials' margin guidance proves to be an industry signal rather than a company one. See the read-through below.
Next date26 August, Q2 FY27, twelve days out and the nearest results date of the twelve.
Read-through
The machines say volume, the margin says price
Applied Materials reported after Thursday's close and it is the most useful thing that happened all day for the three chip names here. It sells the equipment that makes the chips, so its order book is the earliest read on whether the AI buildout is still accelerating. Revenue was $9.115bn, up 25% on the year and 15% on the quarter, a record. It guided Q4 revenue to $10.25bn, another 12% step up. Orders for memory, leading-edge logic and advanced packaging accelerated. That is precisely the mix NVDA and MRVL depend on, and the capacity INTC's foundry case rests on.
And the stock fell. Applied Materials closed -2.48% on Thursday, before its own report, then fell a further 5.15% in extended trade after it, on margin guidance. That is the asymmetry worth carrying into 26 August. Nebius beat and rose 34.14% on Wednesday because nobody had priced its growth. Applied Materials beat, guided up, and fell, because everybody had. The volumes in this chain are not in doubt. What is in doubt is what anyone gets paid for them. Nvidia reports into exactly that question, while sitting closer to its high than any other name here.
Nothing material
PLTR · INTC · MRVL · NBIS · AMZN · MSFT · GOOGL · NVDA, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not news, what is missing, and what could not be checked
Only two of the twelve carried an event dated 13 August: Tesla and Apple. Meta's labour agreement and Robinhood's operating data are both dated 12 August, and Thursday was the reaction session for the latter. The other eight moved on the producer price print, not on anything they announced. PLTR +4.66% and INTC +3.58% were both major moves with no company event behind them.
Several items surfaced in Thursday's coverage that are not from this window and are excluded. Nebius's $1bn-plus Reflection AI compute contract was announced 14 July. Its Meta infrastructure agreement, worth up to $27bn, was announced 16 March. Tesla and SpaceX committed $16.8bn to the Terafab plant on 6 August. Commerce Department testimony describing H200 shipments to China as trivial was given on 14 July. Coverage of a Terafab groundbreaking appeared on 13 August. The ceremony date could not be established from an accessible source, so it is left out rather than dated by guess.
Press figures for Thursday's closes were wrong often enough to be worth noting. Coverage variously put PLTR at +3.14%, MRVL at +5.36% and META at +1.67%. The settled closes from this morning's own fetch are +4.66%, +2.35% and +2.78%. Every figure in this edition comes from that fetch, not from coverage. Robinhood's primary release, Nebius's newsroom and the SEC are all on hosts the environment proxy blocks. The July operating metrics are therefore taken from consistent reporting of that release, not the release itself.
One price note. HOOD's last extended-hours print is timestamped Thursday evening rather than Friday morning, so its +0.23% is after-hours and not a premarket read. Every other premarket figure here is timestamped this morning.
Earnings within 14 days
19 AugTSLA IF Metall's industrial action formally lapses in Sweden
24 AugMETA Manus deletes user data as its separation from Meta completes
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27, twelve days out and the nearest results date of the twelve
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, one day after Nvidia and thirteen days out
early SepHOOD August operating metrics, monthly, company-confirmed cadence
Nebius rose 34.14% to $259.20, the largest move of the twelve, after Q2 results. Revenue was $582.3m, up 454% on the year and 46% on the quarter. Annual recurring revenue (the last month's revenue times twelve) reached $3.0bn. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation turned positive at $236.2m, against a $21.0m loss a year earlier. It raised 2026 capital spending to $20-25bn from $16-20bn. Premarket -3.60%, provisional.
The day sorted the AI trade into hardware and everything else. Only four of the twelve beat QQQ, and all four sell or rent compute: NVDA +3.03%, INTC +3.32%, NBIS +34.14%, MRVL +2.25%. Every one of the seven that fell is a software, platform or consumer name. MSFT -2.26% and META -3.38% led that side with no hard company news of their own.
Intel's $20bn share sale closed on Wednesday and the stock rose 3.32% to $100.95. That is 6.3% above the $95 offer price, up from 2.9% above it on Tuesday. Intel was one of only two of the twelve to trade above its own average volume.
Market-wide
July CPI landed in line at 08:30 ET on 12 August. Headline consumer prices rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year, matching consensus. Core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month and 2.5% on the year
How it reaches these stocksThe gap between headline and core is the story. Headline carries the oil spike from the closed Strait of Hormuz; core says that spike has not yet spread into wages and rents. Rate expectations are set on core. These twelve are valued on profits arriving years out, so the rate used to discount those profits matters more to them than to the market overall. An in-line core reading removes a reason to sell and adds no reason to buy. That is roughly what the tape did.
QQQ closed 723.70, +0.73%, and sits 3.33% below its 52-week high of 748.65
Does the gauge agreeIt disagrees with the list, and the disagreement is the useful part. QQQ rose, yet seven of these twelve fell and only five rose. An index weighted by company size can be carried by its largest members while most of its holdings sink. Nvidia, one of the index's largest constituents, rose 3.03%. Read the index here as a statement about chipmakers, not about technology.
Nebius reported second-quarter results before Wednesday's open and raised its 2026 capital spending plan.
Major move · Q2 results and raised capex · 12 August
Revenue $582.3m, against $105.1m a year earlier. That is +454% on the year and +46% on the quarter Annual recurring revenue, the last month's revenue multiplied by twelve, reached $3.0bn at the end of June: +598% on the year, +56% on the quarter Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) was +$236.2m, against a -$21.0m loss a year earlier. Group margin 41%, up from 32% in Q1. The core business margin was 49.7%, up from 45% Net loss $190.4m. Adjusted loss 12 cents a share. Purchases of property, equipment and intangibles exceeded $5.6bn in the quarter alone Guidance: 2026 revenue reaffirmed at $3.0-3.4bn. Year-end annual recurring revenue target held at $7-9bn. Capital spending raised to $20-25bn from $16-20bn. Contracted power target raised to 5 GW Volume 62.4m against a 28.4m average, 119.3% above it, the heaviest participation of the twelve. The day's range was 20.05% low to high, the widest of the twelve
Why it mattersThe margin swing is what changed. A business that loses money on every unit gets bigger by losing more; this one now earns roughly half its core revenue before depreciation. That converts the capex number from a warning into a multiplier, because each dollar of spending now has a demonstrated return attached. Raising spending while holding the revenue and run-rate targets is the awkward part: more money is buying the same forecast. The 5 GW power target is the number to watch, since contracted electricity is the real constraint on how much of that $25bn can be turned into anything at all.
Already priced in?Largely, and then some. The +34.14% is Wednesday's settled close and it is the largest move of the twelve. Premarket this morning is -3.60%, giving part of it back on thin volume. Treat that as provisional: the open settles it. Note the stock still sits 13.56% below its 52-week high of $299.86, so this was a recovery, not a new peak.
Would flip ifThe year-end run-rate target of $7-9bn is not raised at the next report. Spending was raised and the target was not, so the two now have to meet.
Next dateQ3 results, November, no company-confirmed date. Nvidia's 26 August results are the nearer read on the same demand.
A German non-profit filed a criminal complaint over Meta's smart glasses, and Meta fell the most of the twelve.
Major move · criminal complaint in Germany · 11-12 August
HateAid, a German non-profit, filed a criminal complaint with Frankfurt's centralised internet crime prosecution office. Reports date the filing to 11 August, with coverage on 12 August It argues the glasses' covert recording breaches Germany's Telecommunications, Digital Services and Data Protection Act, and that selling them is therefore a criminal offence It names Meta's management, units of EssilorLuxottica including Ray-Ban, and the retailers Fielmann, Apollo-Optik, Mister Spex and MediaMarkt No dollar amount is attached. No regulator has acted, and a complaint is a request to prosecute, not a charge Separately, Manus said on 11 August it will operate independently, completing a separation China ordered in April 2026 when it blocked Meta's $2bn purchase. That is an old event reaching its administrative end, not new news Volume 15.8m against a 19.2m average, 17.6% below it
Why it mattersThe complaint threatens a product line, not the advertising business that pays for everything. What makes it worth a line is where it lands: Germany is the test case for whether always-on cameras can be sold in Europe at all, and the hardware push is the main argument for Meta earning a return on its AI spending. Take European hardware away and the capital expenditure has to justify itself entirely through advertising. That is a harder sell, because the same investors have just watched free cash flow shrink while spending rose.
Already priced in?No, and the size of the fall does not match the news. A complaint from a non-profit does not remove 3.38% of Meta's value. The falls were broad across software and platform names on Wednesday, and this is mostly that rotation. Meta traded on 17.6% below-average volume, which is not what a company-specific shock looks like. Premarket +0.54%, provisional.
Would flip ifGerman prosecutors decline to open a case, or Meta agrees a recording indicator that satisfies them. Either would take Europe off the table as a risk.
Next date24 August, Manus deletes user data. No date is set for a prosecutorial decision.
Intel's $20bn share offering closed on Wednesday and the stock rose above its own offer price.
Major move · $20bn share sale closed · 12 August
The offering closed 12 August: 210,526,315 shares at $95, for net proceeds of about $19.7bn Underwriters hold a 30-day option on about $3bn more, which would take the deal to $23bn The stock closed $100.95, +3.32%. That is 6.3% above the $95 offer, up from 2.9% above it on Tuesday Volume 161.6m against a 113.7m average, 42.1% above it. Intel and Nebius were the only two of the twelve to trade above their own average volume Intel remains 29.08% below its 52-week high of $142.35
Why it mattersA deal this size is judged in the fortnight after it prices, not on the day. Buyers who took $20bn of paper need somewhere to sell it, and a stock that holds above the offer means they are not forced to. Intel now has a year of factory spending funded without touching its credit rating, which is the constraint that shapes every decision it makes about building capacity ahead of orders. The rising premium to the offer price is the market saying the dilution is absorbed and the question has moved on to what the money buys.
Already priced in?The dilution is. Monday's -4.06% was the market taking the new shares; Wednesday's +3.32% is a separate move on the deal completing cleanly. The premium to the offer widening from 2.9% to 6.3% over two sessions is the signal. Premarket +0.64%, provisional.
Would flip ifThe stock breaks back below $95. The offer price is now a public floor, and a deal trading through it makes the next raise harder.
Next dateThe underwriters' 30-day option runs to roughly 9 September. Q3 results late October, no company-confirmed date.
Nvidia rose 3.03% with nothing announced, on Nebius's results and an in-line inflation print.
Major move · no company news · sector rotation
No company announcement on 12 August. The $500bn financing coalition with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR was announced 10 August and is not new Closed $224.09, +3.03%, recovering the 2.86% it lost on the day that coalition was announced Volume 106.4m against a 123.4m average, 13.7% below it. A rise on below-average volume is not conviction buying Nvidia sits 5.26% below its 52-week high of $236.54, the smallest gap of the twelve
Why it mattersNebius raising its spending plan by roughly $5bn is, to a first approximation, an order Nvidia has not yet booked. That is the mechanism here: customer capital expenditure is supplier revenue, and Wednesday supplied a fresh datapoint on the customer side. The below-average volume matters though. It says the move came from a shortage of sellers rather than a rush of buyers, which is how prices drift up into an earnings date rather than how they re-rate.
Already priced in?There is nothing company-specific to price. This is the read-through from Nebius plus an in-line CPI, and Nvidia's weight in QQQ is why the index rose while seven of these twelve fell. Premarket +0.09%, effectively flat and provisional.
Would flip ifA hyperscaler trims capital spending guidance. The whole chain here runs on customer budgets that are set, not signed.
Next date26 August, Q2 FY27 results. Nine sessions out, the nearest results date of the twelve, with Marvell the day after next.
Microsoft fell 2.26% with nothing announced, as money moved from AI software into AI hardware.
Notable move · no company news · sector rotation
No company announcement on 12 August. Coverage tied the fall to a Barron's report that a second Maia chip could arrive as early as September. Microsoft has not confirmed that timeline Closed $492.43, -2.26%, the second-largest fall of the twelve, behind Meta Volume 27.3m against a 46.8m average, 41.8% below it For context, from results already reported: June-quarter revenue $90.01bn, up 18%, Azure and other cloud services up 43%. Capital spending $41bn in the quarter against free cash flow of $19.6bn, itself down 23% on the year
Why it mattersNothing in the business changed on Wednesday. What changed is what investors will pay for a dollar of it. Microsoft spends roughly two dollars on data centres for every dollar of cash its operations throw off, and that ratio only reads as an investment while the returns look near. On a day when the market rewarded the companies selling the hardware, the companies buying it were charged for the same transaction. That is a re-rating, not a downgrade of the business.
Already priced in?There is no news to price. Read the -2.26% as the cost side of the same trade that paid Nvidia and Marvell. The 41.8% below-average volume says few people acted on conviction. Premarket -0.01%, flat, and the last print was early, so treat it as provisional.
Would flip ifMicrosoft confirms Maia silicon on a real schedule. Its own chip turns some of that $41bn from a payment to Nvidia into an asset it owns.
Next dateQ1 FY27 results, late October, no company-confirmed date.
Marvell launched a set of AI memory products, opened up 6.2% and gave most of it back by the close.
Notable move · AI memory product launch and India investment · 12 August
New products announced 12 August: the Bravera SC6 PCIe 6.0 SSD controller, Structera X CXL memory expansion and Photonic Fabric optical shared memory. All target memory bandwidth limits in AI inference Separately, a $250m investment over three years in India, expanding the Bangalore and Hyderabad sites and roughly doubling headcount there No revenue figure, no customer and no order value was attached to any of it The move: opened $225.41, +6.2%, hit $226.88, closed $217.08, +2.25%. Intraday coverage quoting 5% and 14% was describing the morning, not the close Volume 20.2m against a 22.2m average, 8.9% below it. Marvell is 34.19% below its 52-week high of $329.88
Why it mattersMemory bandwidth, not raw processing, is what limits how many users one AI chip can serve at once. Products that widen it sell into the same budgets as the accelerators themselves, which is why this counts as revenue exposure rather than a technology announcement. The give-back is the honest part of the story. Launches with no customer and no dollar value attached price like optionality, and optionality gets marked down through the session once the headline traders have gone. The $250m in India is a cost, and a small one against what Marvell spends on engineering.
Already priced in?The market priced it, then repriced it inside one session. Opening +6.2% and closing +2.25% means roughly two-thirds of the enthusiasm went. Read the close, not the open. Premarket +0.29%, provisional.
Would flip ifA named hyperscaler commits to Photonic Fabric with a volume. A launch becomes revenue only when someone signs for it.
Next date27 August, Q2 FY27 results, two sessions after Nvidia.
Palantir fell 2.23% with nothing announced, on the same move out of AI software.
Notable move · no company news · sector rotation
No company announcement on 12 August. Q2 results, with revenue up 93% and full-year guidance raised to $8.154bn, were reported in early August and are already in the price Closed $171.04, -2.23%, after a 39.8% gain in the week to 7 August Volume 35.0m against a 62.8m average, 44.2% below it The valuation cited against it: roughly 54 times annualised quarterly sales
Why it mattersA stock that has run 40% in a week has no cushion, so it gives ground first when the money moves. That is most of what happened. The wider point is that Palantir sits on the buying side of the hardware trade too: it rents compute to deliver its software, and the market on Wednesday was paying for the renting-out, not the renting-in. At 54 times sales, small changes in what investors will pay per dollar of revenue move the price far more than anything in the quarter does.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. The move is rotation and profit-taking after a 39.8% week, on 44.2% below-average volume. Premarket +0.21%, provisional.
Would flip ifA large US government contract with a stated value lands. Palantir re-rates on booked backlog, not on sentiment.
Next dateQ3 results, early November, no company-confirmed date.
Amazon fell 1.83% with nothing announced, on the lightest participation of the twelve.
Notable move · no company news · sector rotation
No company announcement on 12 August. The Zoox clearance from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration was reported in early August and is outside the window Closed $267.28, -1.83% Volume 29.4m against a 59.8m average, 50.8% below it, the lightest participation of the twelve Amazon sits 6.94% below its 52-week high of $287.20, the second-smallest gap of the twelve From results already reported: June-quarter revenue $200.61bn, AWS up 37% to $42.2bn, its fastest in eighteen quarters
Why it mattersHalf the usual volume moving a stock this size means very few people were involved in the decision. Amazon belongs on the buying side of Wednesday's split, spending on the same hardware Nvidia sells, but AWS, advertising and retail already generate the cash that funds the build. Spending that arrives with its own funding attached is read differently from spending that does not, which is the likeliest reason it fell less than Microsoft and Meta.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. On 50.8% below-average volume this is drift, not a verdict. Premarket +0.34%, provisional.
Would flip ifAWS growth is guided below the 37% just reported. That number, not retail, sets the price.
Next dateQ3 results, late October, no company-confirmed date.
Tesla fell 1.59% with nothing announced, despite an inflation print that should have helped it.
Notable move · no company news · sector rotation
No company announcement on 12 August Closed $327.51, -1.59% Volume 27.7m against a 31.6m average, 12.3% below it Tesla sits 34.34% below its 52-week high of $498.83 From results already reported: June-quarter revenue $28.24bn, up 25.5%, but operating margin of 1.4% and free cash flow of -$1.09bn as capital spending rose 141.8%
Why it mattersTesla is the name here where interest rates reach the end customer most directly, because most buyers finance the car. An in-line inflation print should therefore have helped it more than it helped the group, and it did not. That says the market is weighting the 1.4% operating margin over the rate path. When a company earns roughly a penny of operating profit per dollar of sales, financing costs for buyers are a second-order problem.
Already priced in?It moved opposite to the macro read, which is the flag. A cooling inflation print is a direct positive for a company whose customers borrow, and the stock still fell. The market is looking at margins instead. Premarket -0.28%, provisional.
Would flip ifOperating margin recovers above the mid single digits. Everything else here is a story until that number moves.
Next dateQ3 deliveries, first days of October. Q3 results, late October.
Justice Kagan paused the App Store commission proceedings for one day, a day after the district court refused to.
Minor move · Supreme Court stay in the Epic case · 12 August
11 August: Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers denied Apple's motion to stay the proceedings in full while the Supreme Court reviews a civil contempt finding 12 August: Justice Elena Kagan administratively stayed those proceedings until 5pm ET on 13 August, giving the court time to weigh a longer stay Without it, Apple would have had to file its evidence on the commission rate it wants to charge by Wednesday afternoon At issue is the commission Apple may charge on purchases that start in an app and complete on an outside website. No rate has been set Closed $302.25, -0.87%, on volume 35.5% below its average
Why it mattersThe linked-out commission is the last toll Apple collects on purchases it no longer processes, and the court, not Apple, will set the rate. Services carry far higher margins than hardware, so the difference between a rate near 27% and one near zero changes the mix of Apple's profits rather than just its revenue. A one-day administrative stay decides none of that. It is procedural, and the market treated it that way.
Already priced in?The -0.87% is smaller than the group's average fall and is not a reaction to either ruling. Both cut the same way for the business and the stock barely moved, which is the market saying the rate itself is what matters, not the calendar. Premarket +0.38%, provisional.
Would flip ifThe Supreme Court extends the stay through its review. That would leave Apple collecting the current commission for months longer.
Next dateToday, 13 August, 5pm ET, the administrative stay expires.
▲ HOODChart+0.56% · Wednesday close, before the release
Robinhood published July operating data after Wednesday's close, showing a sharp monthly slowdown against strong annual growth.
Minor move · July operating metrics, released after the close · 12 August
Released 12 August after the close, so Wednesday's +0.56% happened before it and is not a reaction Funded customers 28.5m, up about 80,000 on June and 1.77m on the year Total platform assets $355bn, -4% on the month, +19% on the year. Net deposits $5.6bn in July Equity trading volumes $333bn, -15% on the month, +59% on the year. Average daily volume -19% on the month, +56% on the year Crypto volumes $10.9bn, -33% on the month and -62% on the year. Margin balances $20.7bn, -4% on the month, +82% on the year Cash and deposit balances $19.5bn, +4% on the month, +34% on the year
Why it mattersRobinhood is paid two ways: a cut of trading activity, and interest on customer cash and margin loans. Those two engines moved in opposite directions in July: trading cooled sharply while the interest-bearing balances grew. That mix is the more durable one, because interest income does not need customers to keep trading. The crypto collapse is the real concern, down 62% on the year, because crypto carries the fattest margin per dollar traded of anything on the platform.
Already priced in?Not at all, and the window matters. The +0.56% close came before the release. Robinhood printed no premarket trade by 07:00 ET, so there is no read yet. The open is the first pricing of these numbers. Robinhood sits 38.31% below its 52-week high of $153.86, the largest gap of the twelve.
Would flip ifAugust crypto volumes stabilise. The annual decline, not the monthly one, is what is compressing the revenue mix.
Next dateAugust operating metrics, early September, monthly cadence.
Alphabet held its Made by Google event and the stock finished almost exactly flat.
Minor move · Made by Google hardware event · 12 August
Held 12 August. Announced the Pixel 11 series, the Pixel Watch 5 and a Bluetooth tracker competing with Apple's AirTag No unit forecast, no revenue target and no pricing detail that changes the financial picture was published Closed $343.54, -0.08%, the flattest close of the twelve. Volume was 24.3% below its average This follows Tuesday's -3.84%, which came two days after the company closed a $25bn bond sale
Why it mattersAlphabet's hardware is a rounding error against search and cloud, so a device launch cannot move the valuation on its own. The flat close is worth noting for a different reason: on a day the market sorted companies into sellers and buyers of AI hardware, Alphabet was neither penalised as a buyer nor rewarded as a seller. It designs its own accelerators, so it partly escapes the trade that hit Microsoft and Meta.
Already priced in?There was nothing to price. A -0.08% close on below-average volume after a product event means the market read it as a product event. Premarket +0.37%, provisional.
Would flip ifThe French antitrust complaint over AI Overviews, filed 11 August by about 300 newspapers, turns into a formal investigation.
Next dateQ3 results, late October, no company-confirmed date.
Read-through
The same money, counted twice
Nebius told investors it will spend $20-25bn this year, raised from $16-20bn, and its shares rose 34.14%. Almost all of that money buys chips and the power to run them. So the same sentence that is a cost line for Nebius is a revenue line for Nvidia and Marvell, and a capacity line for Intel's foundry case. That is the cleanest reason the four compute names were the only four to beat QQQ on Wednesday. It also explains the other side of the split. Microsoft and Meta are spending on the same hardware, and for them the spending is only a cost until the revenue shows up. Investors on Wednesday paid for the seller of the shovels and charged the buyer. Both trades cannot be right for long: either the buyers earn a return on this hardware, in which case the spending continues, or they do not, in which case the sellers' order books are the next thing to go. Nothing on Wednesday settled which.
Nothing material
MSFT · NVDA · TSLA · AMZN · PLTR, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not news, what is missing, and what could not be checked
Seven of the twelve carried a dated event in the window: Nebius, Intel, Robinhood, Meta, Apple, Alphabet and Marvell. Five did not. MSFT -2.26%, NVDA +3.03%, TSLA -1.59%, AMZN -1.83% and PLTR -2.23% all moved on rotation, not on anything they announced. Coverage tied Microsoft's fall to a Barron's report that a second Maia chip could arrive in September. Microsoft has not confirmed that timeline, so it is press sourcing, not company guidance, and it is not treated here as an event.
Two figures could not be verified against a primary source. Nebius's press release and SEC Form 6-K are both on hosts the environment proxy blocks, so its Q2 figures are taken from coverage of that release rather than the release itself. Press reports of Nebius's close differ: one put it at $247.05 while also calling the move 34%, which is not consistent with Tuesday's $193.23 close. The $259.20 used throughout is from this morning's own fetch and is consistent with +34.14%. Marvell's intraday coverage quoted gains of 5% and 14%; the settled close was +2.25%, after opening +6.2%. Intraday quotes are not closes and are not used here.
Alphabet's $0.22 dividend, ex-date 4 September, appears in coverage without a declaration date that could be pinned to this window. It is left out rather than dated by guess.
Earnings within 14 days
13 Aug, 17:00 ETAAPL Justice Kagan's administrative stay of the App Store commission proceedings expires. The Supreme Court decides whether to extend it
24 AugMETA Manus deletes user data as its separation from Meta completes
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27. Nine sessions out, the nearest results date of the twelve
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, two sessions after Nvidia and exactly 14 days out
early SepHOOD August operating metrics, monthly, company-confirmed cadence
Wed 12 Aug 2026GOOGL, NBIS, AMZN, MRVL, AAPL
The 30-second version
Intel sold $20bn of new stock, its first public share sale since it listed in 1971. It announced a $15bn offering on Monday and fell 4.06% that day. It then upsized and priced 210,526,315 shares at $95, and closed Tuesday at $97.71, 2.9% above the offer. Intel was the only one of the twelve to trade above its own average volume, at 45.1% above it.
Alphabet fell 3.84%, the largest fall of the twelve, two days after closing a $25bn bond sale. The notes run to 2066 and cost up to 6.500%. On the same day, about 300 French newspapers filed an antitrust complaint over AI Overviews. Alphabet rose 0.91% when the bond sale closed, so Tuesday is not a reaction to the debt alone.
Nebius indicates +10.23% premarket on another company's results. CoreWeave reported after Tuesday's close with contracted backlog of $129.2bn as of 11 August, up about $25bn in under six weeks. Nebius reports its own Q2 before today's open. The premarket move is thin, provisional and borrowed.
Market-wide
The Strait of Hormuz stayed shut. Iran said the United States must meet several demands before it reopens. Brent crude rose 3% to $86.05 and US West Texas Intermediate rose 3.1% to $80.62. The energy sector ETF XLE rose 4.6%, the technology sector ETF XLK fell 1.1%
How it reaches these stocksOil is not a cost line for any of these twelve. It reaches them through inflation. Last Friday's rally here was a bet that a weak jobs market forces the Federal Reserve to cut. A cut lowers the rate used to value profits arriving years from now. That is worth more to fast-growing tech than to the market overall, because more of its value sits in distant years. A closed shipping lane pushing crude up threatens exactly that bet: it puts inflation back into the arithmetic the Fed is doing.
QQQ closed 718.45, -0.34%, and sits 4.03% below its 52-week high of 748.65. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.67% to 26,428.19, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 7,753.11 and the Dow fell 0.1% to 53,975.98
Does the gauge agreeIt agrees, but only just, and the composition matters more than the level. Five of the twelve rose and seven fell, yet eight of the twelve beat QQQ. That is an index dragged down by a few large falls rather than a broad retreat. Participation was almost absent. Eleven of the twelve traded below their own average volume, and the one exception was Intel, inflated by its own share sale. A market this quiet has not decided anything.
July CPI lands today, 12 August, at 08:30 ET. Consensus is 3.4% year on year, down from 3.5% in June, and +0.1% on the month after -0.4% in June. Core is expected at +0.1% on the month and 2.5% year on year, down from 2.6%
What today still has to clearRead the timing carefully. July's gasoline prices fell early in the month, when the conflict looked like ending, so this report largely predates the crude move now underway. A soft number today would therefore be describing a world that has already changed. That is the trap here. It can permit the rate cut these stocks are priced for while crude quietly removes the permission again.
Intel sold $20bn of new stock at $95 a share, upsized from the $15bn offering it announced the day before.
Minor move · $20bn equity raise · 10-11 August
Announced Monday 10 August as a $15bn underwritten public offering. It was upsized and priced at $20bn: 210,526,315 shares at $95, for net proceeds of about $19.7bn. Underwriters hold a 30-day option on a further 31,578,947 shares. Reports date the pricing release to 10 or 11 August; the offering closes today Bloomberg reports this is Intel's first public share sale since it listed in 1971. The institutional order book is reported at about $100bn against a $20bn deal The share price around it: Intel fell 4.06% on Monday, from $101.65 to $97.52, on the $15bn announcement. Tuesday it closed $97.71, +0.19%, having traded as low as $95.35, and finished 2.9% above the $95 offer price Volume 163.6M against a 112.8M average, 45.1% above it. Intel was the only one of the twelve to trade above its own average volume on Tuesday Dilution: coverage puts it between roughly 4% and 5%, depending on the share count used, rising to about 5.6% if the underwriters' option is exercised. Stated use of proceeds is general corporate purposes, which may include capital expenditure and working capital
Why it mattersEquity is the most expensive money a company can raise. It is never repaid, and every future dollar of profit is split more ways forever. Choosing it over debt shows what Intel is protecting: its investment-grade rating and its room to borrow later. A fab programme this size needs both. What the cash actually buys is capacity built before customers have signed for it, which is the bet Intel's foundry case has always rested on. The order book is the part worth keeping. Roughly $100bn of demand at $95 is a lot of investors pricing in foundry customers Intel has not yet named.
Already priced in?The dilution is, the rest is not. Monday's -4.06% is the market taking the new shares. Tuesday's close 2.9% above the offer says the buyers who took the paper are not underwater. That is the first test any deal this size must pass. Premarket +1.73%, provisional.
Would flip ifThe stock breaks back below $95. The offer price is now a public floor, and a deal that trades through it makes the next raise harder.
Next dateToday, 12 August, the offering closes. Q3 results late October, no company-confirmed date.
Alphabet fell 3.84%, the largest fall of the twelve, on the day French publishers filed against it and two days after its bond sale closed.
Major move · $25bn notes closed 10 Aug · French complaint 11 Aug
Closed $343.80, -3.84%, from $357.52. That is the largest fall of the twelve. It ranged $343.39 to $356.81, a 3.91% range, the second widest of the twelve after Nebius Volume 28.7M against a 31.8M average, 9.9% light. That is the second heaviest of the twelve relative to its own average, behind Intel 10 August: Alphabet closed a $25bn senior notes offering, maturities from 2028 to 2066. Coupons run from 4.500% on the 2028s to 6.500% on $2.5bn due 2066. The long end includes $4.5bn of 6.375% notes due 2056 11 August: APIG, representing about 300 French daily newspapers, filed a complaint with France's Autorité de la concurrence over AI Overviews. It says referral traffic to member sites has fallen 33% to 38%, and argues this breaches commitments Google gave in 2022 Context, not news: the late-July Q2 report put quarterly capital spending at $44.9bn, about double a year earlier, and 2026 capex guidance at $195bn to $205bn. Free cash flow (cash left after spending) was -$5.855bn, the first negative quarter Filings not read: sec.gov is blocked by this environment's proxy, so the notes terms are attributed to coverage, not to the 8-K itself. Premarket +0.58%, provisional
Why it mattersA 6.500% coupon on forty-year money is Alphabet agreeing to rent capital it used to generate. For most of its life it funded everything from operating cash, with enough left to buy back stock. Capital spending was a choice it could dial down in a bad year. Twenty-five billion of bonds converts that choice into a fixed obligation that does not care how advertising revenue is doing. The French complaint pushes on the other end of the same problem. AI Overviews is the product all that spending is buying. A regulator forcing payment for the content it summarises raises the cost of running it, on top of building it.
Already priced in?Partly, and the sequence rules out the obvious explanation. The window is Tuesday's close, settled. Alphabet rose 0.91% on Monday, the day the bond sale actually closed, so the debt is not what Tuesday sold. Premarket +0.58% takes back about a sixth of it, thin and provisional.
Would flip ifThe Autorité declines to open a case, or Alphabet settles on the payment template France applied to Meta in July.
Next dateQ3 results, late October. No date set for the French authority's decision.
▲ NBISChart+4.95% Tuesday close, then +10.23% premarket
Nebius rose 4.95%, the largest gain of the twelve, then jumped in premarket on CoreWeave's results, hours before its own.
Major move · peer results 11 Aug · own results today
Closed $193.23, +4.95%, the largest gain of the twelve. It ranged $187.31 to $195.60, a 4.43% range, the widest of the twelve. Volume ran 23.8% light CoreWeave reported after Tuesday's close. Q2 revenue $2.575bn, up 112% year on year, against about $2.56bn expected. Adjusted EBITDA $1.5bn, from $753m a year earlier Its backlog (revenue already under contract) was $104.2bn at quarter end and $129.2bn as of 11 August, about $25bn added in under six weeks. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $12.4bn to $13.2bn, capital spending to $35bn to $39bn The warning in the same report: net loss widened to $626m from $290m, on net interest expense of $640m, up from $267m Nebius premarket $213.00, +10.23% at 07:00 ET, the largest premarket move of the twelve by a wide margin Nebius reports Q2 before today's open, call at 08:00 ET. Consensus revenue is about $570m to $580m. Q1 2026 was $399m, up 684% year on year. Full-year guidance is $3.0bn to $3.4bn revenue and $7bn to $9bn annualised run rate by year end. The release had not appeared as of 07:15 ET
Why it mattersCoreWeave is the closest listed comparison to Nebius, so its backlog is a read that Nebius holders get for free. Twenty-five billion of new commitments in six weeks says demand is arriving faster than the capacity. That single assumption holds up every valuation in this corner of the market. The interest line is the counterweight, and it is in the same report. Net interest of $640m in one quarter, more than double a year ago, is what it costs to finance data centres with borrowed money. Nebius is running the same trade, so the number that decides today is not revenue. It is what Nebius is paying for the capital standing behind it.
Already priced in?No, and this read is provisional twice over. Tuesday's +4.95% close came before CoreWeave reported, so it is not a reaction to it. The +10.23% premarket is a reaction to a different company's results, on thin volume, ahead of Nebius's own numbers. Two events settle it today: the release, then the open.
Would flip ifNebius's own run rate falls short of the pace implied by $7bn to $9bn by year end, or its interest cost has risen like CoreWeave's.
Next dateToday, 12 August, Q2 before the open, call 08:00 ET, company-confirmed.
Nvidia finished Tuesday unchanged, two days after lining up more than $500bn of outside money to finance AI data centres.
Minor move · $500bn financing coalition · 10 August
Closed $217.50, -0.02%, effectively unchanged, on volume 24.6% light. It sits 8.05% below its 52-week high Monday 10 August: six firms signed memoranda of understanding to mobilise more than $500bn for AI data centres, using GPUs as collateral. They are Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR. Jensen Huang said Nvidia could backstop up to $125bn, a quarter of the target These are memoranda, not funded commitments. Each firm judges individual deals and its own participation The reaction: Nvidia fell 2.86% on Monday, the day it was announced, then closed flat on Tuesday. Premarket +0.92%, provisional
Why it mattersThe objection to Nvidia's earlier arrangements was circularity. The company selling the chips also underwrote its customers' ability to keep buying them, so revenue and credit risk sat on one balance sheet. Handing the funding to six outside firms breaks part of that loop, because someone independent now decides whether a borrower is good. What it does not break is the collateral. These loans are secured on GPUs. If AI demand cools, the security loses value at the same moment the borrower loses the means to pay. That is one risk wearing two hats, and it is why a number this large did not move the stock up.
Already priced in?Read Monday, not Tuesday. Nvidia fell 2.86% on the day it announced $500bn, which is not a market treating the number as free money. Tuesday's flat close on light volume adds nothing either way.
Would flip ifA memorandum converts into a funded, priced facility with a named borrower and a stated rate.
Amazon fell 2.09% with nothing announced, giving back part of the run that carried it through $3trn.
Notable move · no company news
Closed $272.27, -2.09%, on volume 51.7% below average, the second lightest of the twelve after Microsoft It sits 5.20% below its 52-week high of $287.20, the smallest such gap of the twelve No company announcement in the window. Coverage attributes the fall to profit taking after the post-earnings run through a $3trn market value. Premarket +0.27%, provisional
Why it mattersThis is a sector move, and the sector is the one Alphabet defined on the same day. Every hyperscaler is now judged on one question: how much cash it is burying in data centres, and what comes back. Amazon carries the smallest discount to its own high of the twelve. That is another way of saying it has the least room to absorb a rethink.
Already priced in?Nothing to price in, there was no event. The window is Tuesday's close, settled.
Marvell rose 1.80% with nothing announced, recovering part of Monday's fall.
Notable move · no company news · peer read
Closed $212.31, +1.80%, on volume 46.4% below average. On Monday it fell 4.65%. No other ticker of the twelve fell further that day: Intel fell 4.06% and Nvidia 2.86% It sits 35.64% below its 52-week high, the second largest gap of the twelve after Robinhood Premarket +3.43%, the second largest of the twelve after Nebius, provisional Not news: the AI memory and storage launch at FMS 2026 was 4 August and drove a 12.80% gain that day. Coverage recirculated it on 11 August as though it were fresh
Why it mattersMarvell's premarket move is CoreWeave's backlog arriving by proxy. It sells the connective parts inside AI data centres. What sets its market is how much capacity gets built, not how many chips Nvidia designs. Twenty-five billion of new CoreWeave commitments in six weeks is that number moving, and Marvell has no news of its own to compete with it.
Apple fell 1.09%, a second consecutive down day, with nothing announced by the company.
Notable move · second down day · no company news
Closed $304.91, -1.09%, after -1.62% on Monday. Volume ran 44.5% light Monday's fall followed a broker downgrade citing supply checks that an all-glass iPhone planned for 2027 had been cancelled. This brief excludes broker actions, and Apple has confirmed nothing either way. It is recorded here only because it dates Monday's move Premarket -0.14%. Only three of the twelve indicate lower, and Apple is one of them. Provisional
Why it mattersThe memory cost problem is now the frame every Apple item gets read through. Memory prices roughly doubling has to land somewhere: on the margin, on the retail price, or on unit sales. A higher-priced phone was the obvious place to put it. If that phone does not exist, the bill lands on gross margin instead, and gross margin is the number Apple's entire valuation is built on.
Already priced in?Two days of falling on light volume is a stock being marked down quietly rather than sold. The window is Tuesday's close, settled. Nothing from Apple has landed to confirm or deny the reason.
Next date1 September, John Ternus becomes CEO. September quarter results, late October.
US regulators published a Tesla recall of 20,349 vehicles for headlights that are too bright, and the stock rose anyway.
Minor move · NHTSA recall · 11 August
Closed $332.81, +0.58%, on volume 29.2% light. Premarket +0.29%, provisional NHTSA published the recall on 11 August, number 26V507: 18,735 pre-refresh Model Y and 1,614 Model 3, 20,349 in total. Low beams can be bright enough to impair oncoming drivers. Tesla filed the recall report on 4 August. Owner letters are due 15 September. The remedy is not yet determined Not news: the report that Tesla is weighing a separation of its China business dates to 31 July and recirculated on 11 August. The $16.8bn Terafab commitment with SpaceX was 6 August
Why it mattersTwenty thousand cars is a rounding error against a quarter of deliveries, and a beam pattern is fixable in software. The cost is not the repair. Much of the value investors put on Tesla sits in robotaxis, which require a regulator willing to approve software that makes driving decisions. Every recall filed against a system the car controls automatically goes into the file that regulator reads.
Next date15 September, owner notification letters. Q3 deliveries, early October.
A Pentagon memo directing up to $243.9m of no-bid purchases from Palantir became public, and the stock did not move.
Minor move · Pentagon memo surfaced 11 Aug, dated 4 Aug
Closed $174.94, -0.17%, on volume 32.3% light. Premarket -1.68%, the weakest of the twelve, provisional The memo is dated 4 August and became public on 11 August. It directs Defense Department components to buy up to $243.9m of Palantir services through 31 March 2027 without competitive bidding It is not a signed contract. Coverage says it is unclear whether the purchase has been finalised, and sec.gov is blocked from this environment, so no filing was read against it Not news: Q2 results were 3 August, and the 29.45% jump that followed was 4 August
Why it mattersThe money is not the point: $243.9m is small against Palantir's revenue. Sole-sourcing is the point. Palantir's government business is valued on an assumption that once the software is embedded in a workflow, nobody bids against the renewal. A deputy secretary putting that in writing is direct evidence for the assumption, which is worth considerably more than the contract it authorises.
Already priced in?It moved nothing. The window is Tuesday's close, settled, and Palantir finished flat on light volume. The market is treating a memo without a signed contract as not yet news, which is defensible.
Meta rose 0.71% on a day it released an open-weight version of its top AI model, with no financial figures attached.
Minor move · no financial event
Closed $599.12, +0.71%, on volume 38.0% light. It sits 24.76% below its 52-week high Coverage reports Meta released Muse Glimmer, an open-weight version of its Muse Spark 1.2 model, alongside an essay from Mark Zuckerberg. No dollar figures were attached, so this brief records it without one and attributes it to coverage Premarket +0.69%, provisional
Why it mattersPublishing model weights is a pricing decision, not a research one. Giving away something competitors charge for removes the margin from that layer of the industry and pushes the money to whoever owns the distribution instead. Meta owns distribution and does not sell model access, so it gives up little and takes a revenue line off rivals who do. Whether that is worth the training cost is the open question, and this release does not answer it.
Microsoft slipped 0.44% with nothing announced, on the lightest volume of the twelve.
Minor move · no company news
Closed $503.81, -0.44%, on volume 52.9% below average, the lightest of the twelve. Premarket -0.86%, provisional
Why it mattersMicrosoft is the only large cloud name here that neither borrowed nor sold shares this week. Alphabet raised $25bn of debt and Intel sold $20bn of stock. Both fund the same kind of build-out Microsoft pays for out of operating cash. That difference costs nothing today and is the whole argument for owning it if capital gets more expensive.
Next dateQ1 FY27 results, late October. No company-confirmed date yet.
Robinhood was flat, down 0.15%, with nothing announced the day before its July metrics.
Minor move · no company news · metrics today
Closed $94.38, -0.15%, on volume 36.7% light. It sits 38.66% below its 52-week high of $153.86, the largest gap to its own high of the twelve Premarket +0.56%, provisional. July monthly metrics are due today at 16:05 ET
Why it mattersRobinhood earns when customers trade, so its revenue tracks how willing retail investors feel about risk rather than any contracted book. Oil rising on a closed shipping lane suppresses that willingness without touching the business at all. Today's metrics are the first hard measurement of whether it survived July.
Next dateToday, 12 August, 16:05 ET, July monthly metrics, company-confirmed.
Read-through
Three ways to pay for a data centre, all three marked down on arrival
Inside 48 hours, three companies on this list solved the same problem three different ways, and the market charged each of them for it. Alphabet closed a $25bn bond sale on 10 August, paying up to 6.500% for money it need not repay until 2066. It fell 3.84% the next day. Intel sold $20bn of new stock at $95, fell 4.06% on the announcement, then closed 2.9% above its own offer price. Nvidia arranged for six outside firms to mobilise more than $500bn against GPU collateral, and fell 2.86% on the day it said so. Debt, equity and other people's money: all three were marked down on arrival. That is the same verdict returned three times. The market has stopped reading AI capital raising as evidence of demand and started reading it as a bill. Now the asymmetry, because only one of the three recovered. Intel fell on Monday and closed above its offer price on Tuesday. It did so on volume 45.1% above its own average, the only one of the twelve above average at all. Alphabet did not recover: it fell hardest two days after the money landed. The difference is what the money buys. Intel is selling equity to build capacity it can lease to anyone. Roughly $100bn of orders at $95 is a large bet on customers it has not named. Alphabet is borrowing to build capacity for itself, at the exact moment its own free cash flow has turned negative for the first time. One raise widens the seller's options. The other narrows the borrower's. A separate read-through lands this morning. CoreWeave reported after Tuesday's close with contracted backlog of $129.2bn as of 11 August, up about $25bn in under six weeks. Nebius indicates +10.23% premarket on it and Marvell +3.43%, the two largest premarket moves of the twelve. Both are borrowed: neither company reported anything. Nebius reports its own numbers before today's open, which is where the borrowing stops.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · MSFT · MRVL · META · HOOD · NBIS, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not news, what is missing, and what could not be checked
Four of the twelve carried a dated event in the window: Intel, Alphabet, Tesla and Palantir. Nvidia's $500bn financing coalition was announced on 10 August, just outside a strict 24-hour window. It is included because no edition was published on 11 August. There is no edition for 11 August: that run did not fire, so Monday's session was never written up. Monday's closes are used here to date Tuesday's moves. Monday's own moves ran from Marvell -4.65%, Intel -4.06% and Nvidia -2.86% at one end to Palantir +1.87% at the other, with QQQ -0.30%. Several items looked new on 11 August and are not. Excluded on date: the report that Tesla is weighing a separation of its China business (31 July); Marvell's FMS 2026 launch (4 August); Palantir's Q2 (3 August) and the Pentagon memo covering it (4 August); Alphabet's capex guidance and negative free cash flow (late-July Q2); Tesla's Terafab commitment (6 August). Broker rating and target changes on Apple, Nebius and Alphabet are excluded as commentary. The Apple downgrade is named only because it dates Monday's fall. sec.gov and Yahoo Finance are blocked by this environment's proxy, so no filing was read against the document itself. Intel's offering terms, Alphabet's notes and the Palantir memo are all attributed to coverage. Nebius's own Q2 release had not appeared by 07:15 ET, so nothing is written here about its results. All prices, volumes and 52-week highs come from the Twelve Data API rather than press coverage. Press figures disagreed in places: one outlet put Meta's Tuesday close at $599.64 against the exchange $599.12.
Earnings within 14 days
12 Aug, 08:30 ETJuly CPI. Consensus 3.4% year on year, +0.1% on the month
12 Aug, pre-openNBIS Q2, before the open, call 08:00 ET, company-confirmed
12 AugINTC $20bn share offering closes
12 Aug, 16:05 ETHOOD July monthly metrics, company-confirmed
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27, 10 sessions out. The only one of the twelve inside 14 days
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, after the close. 11 sessions out, just past 14 calendar days
Mon 10 Aug 2026PLTR, TSLA, MRVL, HOOD, NVDA, INTC
The 30-second version
The US economy shed jobs in July and these stocks rose on it. Payrolls fell 23,000 against the 83,000 to 95,000 gain expected, and May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. Ten of these twelve rose. A weakening labour market means cheaper money sooner, and cheaper money is worth more to this list than a strong economy is.
Palantir rose 10.32% to $172.01, the largest gain of the twelve, and no company event explains it. It traded 29.1% above its own average volume, the heaviest participation of the twelve. That took it past its post-earnings peak of $162.66, so this is no longer a recovery.
Meta was ordered to pay $567M and the stock still rose. A New Mexico court issued the largest child-safety penalty against the company on 7 August, taking its total liability in that state to $942M. Meta closed +0.37% against QQQ's +1.17%. The fine is affordable. The legal theory behind it may not be.
Market-wide
July payrolls fell 23,000, the first decline of this cycle, against consensus of 83,000 to 95,000. The BLS cut the prior two months by a combined 103,000: May down 66,000 to 129,000, June down 37,000 to 57,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.639%
How it reaches these stocksRead the unemployment rate carefully. It fell while jobs were being lost, because the share of adults working or looking for work dropped to 61.4%, the lowest in over five years. People left the workforce rather than found jobs. What matters here is the yield: it is the rate used to discount profits arriving years from now, and lowering it raises the present value of distant earnings most. That is the whole of this list.
QQQ closed 723.03, +1.17%, and sits 3.42% below its 52-week high of 748.65. The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to a record 7,757.64 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.3% to 26,690.62
Does the gauge agreeIt agrees. Six of the twelve beat QQQ and only two fell. But the participation undercuts the conviction: ten of the twelve traded below their own average volume, and the two exceptions were Palantir and Tesla. A rate-cut rally that most holders sat out is a repricing by a few buyers, not a change of mind by many.
July CPI lands Wednesday 12 August at 08:30 ET. It arrives the same morning as Nebius results, and hours before Robinhood's July metrics
What this rally still has to clearFriday's move assumed the Federal Reserve reads a shrinking workforce as a reason to cut. Hot inflation removes that option and leaves only the weak economy, which is the bad half of the trade on its own. Wednesday is the single date that can undo everything below.
Palantir rose 10.32% to $172.01 with nothing announced, on the heaviest participation of the twelve.
Major move · no company news · Friday's session
Closed $172.01, +10.32%, from $155.92. That is the largest gain of the twelve and the only double-digit move Volume 77.4M against a 59.9M average, 29.1% above it. That is the heaviest volume of the twelve, and one of only two above average This clears the post-earnings peak. The 3 August quarter drove a 29.45% jump on 4 August to $162.66, then two down days. Friday closed 5.7% above that peak No company announcement. Coverage attributes it to a broker raising its target to $255, which this brief excludes, plus short covering
Why it mattersAlmost none of Palantir's value sits in profits it earns this year. The price rests on investors extrapolating roughly 90% revenue growth years into the future, so the rate used to discount that far-off cash decides the stock more than any quarter does. A jobs report that lowers that rate therefore moves Palantir further than it moves anything else here. The heavy volume matters because it separates a real repricing from drift: buyers showed up at the higher price.
Already priced in?Not priced in, this is the pricing. The window is Friday's close, settled. Premarket today is -1.17%, giving back roughly a tenth. Thin and provisional: the open settles it.
Would flip ifWednesday's CPI runs hot. The entire move rests on a rate cut the inflation data has not yet permitted.
Next date12 August CPI. Q3 results early November.
Tesla rose 2.83% in its first full session after committing, with SpaceX, to a $16.8B chip factory in Texas.
Notable move · $16.8B commitment dated 6 August
Closed $328.58, +2.83%. Volume 39.4M against a 36.4M average, 8.3% above it, one of only two above average Terafab, announced Thursday 6 August around midday ET: an initial $16.8B from Tesla and SpaceX jointly, a 100M square foot site in Grimes County, Texas, at least 3,000 jobs. Coverage cites a longer build-out of $55B to $119B It is to make logic and memory chips for Optimus, Cybercab and SpaceX data centres. The Tesla and SpaceX split of the $16.8B has not been disclosed Correction: Friday's edition recorded Tesla as having nothing announced on Thursday. Terafab was announced during Thursday's session, which closed -0.63%
Why it mattersTesla currently buys the chips its robots and vehicles depend on, at prices set by a market in shortage. Owning the fab converts a purchase into an asset, which trades a cost it cannot control for capital it must now fund. The catch is what that does to the accounts. Money spent on a factory is money not returned to shareholders, and a car company that becomes a chipmaker has to be valued on two sets of margins instead of one.
Already priced in?Only partly, and slowly. The news landed inside Thursday's session and Tesla fell that day. Friday's gain is a delayed reaction tangled up with the jobs rally, so the two cannot be separated cleanly. Premarket today +1.04%, provisional.
Would flip ifThe disclosed split shows Tesla funding most of the $16.8B while SpaceX takes most of the capacity.
Next dateQ3 deliveries, early October. No date set for the funding split.
▼ METAChart+0.37% · Friday close, settled, and it lagged
A New Mexico court ordered Meta to pay $567M over child-safety failures and mandated platform reforms.
Minor move · $567M penalty · 7 August
Ruling dated 7 August. The $567M penalty follows $375M in jury damages awarded in March, taking total liability in that state to $942M The judge found the company a public nuisance and ordered reforms across Facebook, Instagram and Meta's AI chatbots Closed $592.10, +0.37%, against QQQ's +1.17%. Volume ran 42.1% light. Premarket +0.45%, provisional Filings not read: sec.gov is unreachable from this environment, so the detail above is attributed to coverage, not to a document
Why it mattersThe money is close to irrelevant: $942M is a rounding error against Meta's earnings. The public nuisance finding is not. That is the legal theory that broke the tobacco and opioid industries, because it lets a state sue over harm caused by a product working exactly as designed. If other states copy it, what is at stake is the engagement model that generates the advertising revenue, not the fine. The ordered reforms are the early version of that cost.
Already priced in?Barely, and that is the interesting part. The window is Friday's close, settled. Meta rose on a day when almost everything rose, but trailed the index by 0.8 points. The market docked it a little and moved on, which prices the fine and ignores the precedent.
Would flip ifA second state files on the same nuisance theory. One ruling is a cost, a pattern is a business model problem.
Next dateQ3 results, late October. No appeal date confirmed.
▼ AAPLChart+0.29% Friday close, then -1.27% premarket
The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Apple is testing memory chips from China's CXMT to ease a shortage.
Minor move · Sunday report · premarket only
Report dated Sunday 9 August. Apple held early talks with CXMT about supplying components for iPhones and MacBooks, aimed at devices sold in China CXMT cannot solve it: coverage says its capacity is maxed out this year. The Pentagon lists the company as having ties to China's military The cost backdrop: DRAM prices rose up to 89% in Q2 2026, Gartner sees combined DRAM and SSD prices up 130% by year end, and forecasts global smartphone shipments down 8.4% in 2026 Friday close $313.33, +0.29%, on volume 46.1% below average, the lightest of the twelve. Premarket -1.27%, the weakest premarket of the twelve Today is the ex-dividend date for the $0.27 dividend declared 30 July. That is about 0.09% of the price, so it explains almost none of the premarket fall
Why it mattersMemory is one of the most expensive bought-in parts of a phone, and Apple's gross margin is the number the whole valuation is built on. A doubling in memory cost has to land somewhere: on the margin, on the retail price, or on unit sales. Shopping for a supplier the Pentagon has flagged, whose capacity is already full, is what a company with no good options looks like. It also puts a number on the vaguest line in Apple's guidance, the supply constraints it cited for a September quarter growing 9% to 11% after 16% in the June quarter.
Already priced in?No. Friday's close predates the report entirely, so it is not a reaction to it. The only evidence is premarket, it is provisional, and the open will settle it.
Would flip ifApple confirms memory supply locked at fixed prices through the iPhone cycle.
Next date1 September, John Ternus becomes CEO. September quarter results, late October.
Marvell rose 3.89% with nothing new announced, still working through its 4 August product launch.
Major move · no fresh news · Friday's session
Closed $218.72, +3.89%, after ranging $205.52 to $221.87. Volume ran 18.8% light The launch was 4 August at FMS 2026, not Friday: the Bravera SC6 PCIe 6.0 SSD controller, sampling Q4 2026, plus Structera X memory expansion and Photonic Fabric. That day the stock rose 12.80% Premarket +1.50%, provisional
Why it mattersMarvell sells the parts that let data centres shift AI memory off high-bandwidth chips onto cheaper storage. The same shortage that raises Apple's costs is what creates that demand, so the memory squeeze reads as a bill for one and an order book for the other.
Robinhood rose 2.84% with nothing announced, moving with the rate-cut trade.
Notable move · no company news · rate trade
Closed $93.29, +2.84%, on volume 25.5% light. Still 39.37% below its 52-week high of $153.86, the largest gap to its own high of the twelve Premarket +1.40%, provisional
Why it mattersRobinhood makes money when customers trade, so its revenue tracks how willing retail investors feel about risk rather than any contracted book. Cheaper money raises that willingness directly, which is why it moves on a jobs number that says nothing about Robinhood.
Next date12 August, 16:05 ET, July monthly metrics, company-confirmed.
Nvidia rose 2.27% with no dated company event in the window.
Notable move · no company news · Friday's session
Closed $223.96, +2.27%, on volume 21.6% light. It sits 5.32% below its 52-week high Premarket +0.46%, provisional
Why it mattersRead Terafab as a distant threat, not a near one. Tesla and SpaceX building their own fab removes two future buyers from Nvidia's queue, but nothing ships from an empty Texas field for years. Meanwhile the memory shortage that fab is meant to fix exists because Nvidia's systems are consuming the supply.
Intel rose 1.84% with nothing company-specific announced.
Notable move · no company news · sector
Closed $101.65, +1.84%, after ranging $98.03 to $103.66, on volume 33.4% light. Premarket -0.36%, provisional Not news: the US government's 9.9% stake at $20.47 a share dates to August 2025, and the Fortinet foundry win to 21 July. Both recirculated in weekend coverage
Why it mattersTerafab is the read-through that matters. Intel's case for its foundry rests on American customers needing an American fab, and two of the most visible candidates just decided to build their own instead. That is a small dent in a large argument, and it is years from showing up in revenue.
Would flip ifA named external foundry customer is disclosed with a dollar value.
Next dateQ3 results, late October. No company-confirmed date yet.
Nebius fell 1.01%, the largest fall of the twelve, with nothing announced two days before results.
Minor move · no company news · two days out
Closed $187.97, -1.01%, after ranging $180.63 to $197.42, a 9.29% high-to-low range on volume 15.9% light Not news: the $1B Reflection AI compute agreement running to 2029 was announced 14 July and recirculated in Friday coverage Premarket -0.52%, provisional
Why it mattersFalling on a day built for long-duration assets is the tell. Nebius bills the bulk of its contracted capacity from 2027, so a lower discount rate should have lifted it further than anything here. It did not, which says the market is waiting for Wednesday rather than repricing the rate.
Would flip ifWednesday's report puts a dated backlog figure against the capacity already funded.
Next date12 August, Q2 results before the open, company-confirmed.
Alphabet fell 0.96%, a third session of drift from the 5 August DeepMind departures, with nothing new landing.
Minor move · third day · no new event
Closed $354.30, -0.96%, on volume 39.7% light, after -4.03% Wednesday and -1.29% Thursday The event was 5 August: chief scientist Jeff Dean and senior researchers Sanjay Ghemawat, Oriol Vinyals and Quoc Le left to found Discovery Loop, which Alphabet funds. Demis Hassabis became chief scientist, Koray Kavukcuoglu took DeepMind and Gemini Premarket +0.74%, provisional
Why it mattersFalling while everything else rallied is the point. Three sessions of decline on light volume, against an index up 1.17%, is a stock being quietly marked down rather than dumped. The market is charging Alphabet for uncertainty about who now decides its AI direction.
Would flip ifFurther senior departures are confirmed, or Discovery Loop recruits from DeepMind.
Closed $274.48, +0.82%, on volume 45.9% light. It sits 4.43% below its 52-week high, the smallest such gap of the twelve. Premarket +0.31%, provisional
Why it mattersClosest to its own high and barely traded. Amazon keeps behaving like the position on this list nobody feels a need to argue about.
Microsoft was unchanged, up 0.03%, stalling just under $500.
Minor move · no company news
Closed $499.99, +0.03%, on volume 41.7% light, after Thursday's +2.54%. Premarket +0.04%, provisional
Why it mattersThe nine-day re-rating of the 29 July Azure quarter has stopped. Microsoft sat out a rally that lifted almost everything else, which suggests the repricing is finished and the next move needs new information.
Next dateQ1 FY27 results, late October. No company-confirmed date yet.
Read-through
The memory shortage is a bill for one company on this list and an order book for another
Two items three days apart describe the same physical fact from opposite ends. On 4 August Marvell launched hardware whose purpose is to move AI memory off expensive chips onto cheaper storage, and rose 12.80%. On Sunday 9 August the Wall Street Journal reported Apple in early talks with a Chinese supplier the Pentagon has flagged, because it cannot get enough memory. DRAM prices rose up to 89% in the second quarter. That shortage exists because AI data centres are absorbing the supply, which is Nvidia's demand doing it. So one shortage sets Marvell's addressable market, raises Apple's cost of goods, and is a symptom of Nvidia's success. Apple indicates -1.27% premarket, the weakest of the twelve, while Marvell indicates +1.50%. Provisional, but pointing the right way. Now the asymmetry worth sitting with. Meta was ordered to pay $567M on Friday and rose 0.37%. Palantir announced nothing at all and rose 10.32%. The market treated a real cash penalty as smaller than a change in the interest rate used to value profits nobody has earned yet, and on the arithmetic it was right: $942M against Meta's earnings is nothing, while a lower discount rate compounds through every year of Palantir's forecast. The risk is that this arithmetic only holds while the rate keeps falling. Wednesday's CPI is the test, and Palantir has far more riding on it than Meta does.
Nothing material
AMZN · PLTR · MSFT · GOOGL · HOOD · NVDA · INTC · NBIS · MRVL, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not news, and what could not be checked
Three of the twelve carried a dated event: Meta, Apple and Tesla. The other nine announced nothing qualifying in the window, so their moves are the jobs report, the sector, or a continuation. Several items in weekend coverage look new and are not, and were excluded on date: Nebius's $1B Reflection AI compute deal was announced 14 July, not Friday, despite several sites carrying it as fresh on 7 August. Marvell's AI memory launch was 4 August at FMS 2026. Palantir's Q2 was 3 August, its 29.45% jump 4 August. The US government's Intel stake dates to August 2025 and the Fortinet foundry win to 21 July. Alphabet's DeepMind departures were 5 August. Apple's $0.27 dividend was declared 30 July; only its ex-date falls today. Broker target changes on Palantir, Robinhood and Apple are excluded as commentary. sec.gov is blocked by this environment's proxy, so no filing was read against the document itself, including the Tesla Form S-8 registering 303,960,630 shares under the 2018 CEO award, which is dated to coverage only and is not treated as news here. All prices and volumes come from the Twelve Data API, not from press coverage: press reports of Friday's moves disagreed with the exchange data in several places.
Earnings within 14 days
12 Aug, 08:30 ETJuly CPI. The number Friday's rally is borrowing against
12 AugNBIS Q2, before the open, company-confirmed. The only one of the twelve reporting within 14 days
12 Aug, 16:05 ETHOOD July monthly metrics, company-confirmed
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27. Outside the 14-day window
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, after the close. Outside the 14-day window
Fri 7 Aug 2026NBIS, MSFT, HOOD, PLTR, GOOGL, INTC
The 30-second version
Nebius lost an eighth of its value and no company event explains it. NBIS closed $189.88, -13.29%, after opening $205.84 and touching $215.51. That is a 13.87% high-to-low range, the widest of the twelve. No filing, no guidance, no contract. Its results are still five days away.
Twelve of the twelve traded on below-average volume. Not one exception. Nebius came closest at 4.9% under its average, and Amazon ran 55.3% light. A tape where nothing trades heavy is positioning, not conviction, and it tells you how little to read into Thursday.
Microsoft rose 2.54%, the largest gain of the twelve. It was the only gain above 1%, and nothing was announced. This is the 29 July Azure quarter still being repriced, eight days on.
Market-wide
Oil and yields did the work, not the companies. The Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.1%. Brent traded near $80.34 and WTI near $75.93 as Strait of Hormuz shipping risk persisted. The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 4 basis points to 4.664%, and the 30-year rose more than 3 to 5.208%
How it reaches these stocksA long-dated yield is the rate used to discount profits arriving years from now. Raise it and the companies whose value sits furthest in the future lose the most, mechanically, before anyone revises a forecast. That is most of this list, and it explains why Nebius and not Apple took the worst of it.
QQQ closed 714.65, -0.37%, and sits 4.54% below its 52-week high of 748.65. QQQ volume ran 36% under its average
Does the gauge agreeIt agrees, faintly, then undercuts itself. A 0.37% fall is not a repricing of growth, and the index traded light while all twelve of these names traded lighter still. The yield story is real but small. Anyone reading Thursday as a verdict on AI capex is reading a volume vacuum.
The July employment report lands today at 08:30 ET, after this brief and before the bell. Consensus is roughly 83,000 to 100,000 payrolls with unemployment near 4.2%. June was 57,000
What today still has to clearThis is the one number that can move the discount rate that hurt these stocks yesterday. A soft print revives rate-cut expectations, which lowers that rate and helps long-duration growth most. A hot print does the reverse. Nothing in this brief survives contact with it, so treat every premarket figure above as provisional.
Nebius fell 13.29% with no announcement, no filing and no guidance change in the window.
Major move · no company news · Thursday's session
Closed $189.88, -13.29%, from $218.99. Opened $205.84, peaked $215.51, bottomed $189.17 The 13.87% high-to-low range was the widest of the twelve, and the fall the largest of the twelve Volume 25.7M against a 27.0M average: heavy for this list, still 4.9% under its own average Nothing was announced. Coverage cites capex plans of $20B to $25B and neocloud sentiment, neither a dated event from this window
Why it mattersNebius sells compute it has not finished building, paid for with money already committed. That makes the stock a bet on timing rather than on demand: much of the capacity being funded now does not bill a customer until 2027. What moved was the rate at which investors discount that wait, not anything Nebius did. Which is why the fall needed no news, and can reverse just as fast.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. The window is Thursday's close, settled, and no company event landed in it. Premarket today is $197.00, +3.75%, the largest premarket gain of the twelve, which recovers under 30% of Thursday's fall. Thin and provisional: the open settles it.
Would flip ifThe 12 August report shows contracted revenue converting on schedule. A dated backlog figure answers the timing question that sentiment cannot.
Next date12 August, Q2 results before the open, company-confirmed.
Microsoft rose 2.54% with nothing announced, extending the response to its 29 July quarter.
Notable move · no fresh news · Thursday's session
Closed $499.86, +2.54%, from $487.46. That is the largest gain of the twelve, and the only one above 1%. Volume ran 33% light The underlying quarter is 29 July: Azure growth 43% against about 40% expected, guided to 45%; capex $41B against about $42B anticipated Premarket $497.40, -0.49%, giving a fifth of it back. Provisional
Why it mattersAzure's growth rate is the number that sets Microsoft's price, and an acceleration takes weeks to work through, not one session. Each analyst who raises the growth rate they assume holds also lengthens how many years they project it, and that is what lifts the price paid per dollar of earnings. Spending also came in under what was feared, so faster growth is not being bought with worse cash flow.
Already priced in?Being priced in, still. The window is Thursday's close, settled. A stock climbing eight days after a print is not reacting to the print, it is being re-rated. The light volume says this is a slow institutional move rather than a crowd.
Would flip ifAzure's guided 45% is missed next quarter. The re-rating rests entirely on that number holding.
Next dateQ1 FY27 results, late October. No company-confirmed date yet.
Robinhood fell 2.25% with nothing announced, the second-largest fall of the twelve.
Notable move · no company news · Thursday's session
Closed $90.71, -2.25%, the second-largest fall of the twelve. Volume ran 44% light Now 41.04% below its 52-week high of $153.86, the largest gap to its own high of the twelve. The Q2 beat was late July, not this window. Premarket +0.20%, provisional
Why it mattersRobinhood earns from customer trading activity, so its revenue moves with retail risk appetite rather than a contracted book. That leaves it exposed to exactly what Thursday's tape lacked, which is people trading.
Would flip ifJuly monthly metrics show trading volumes holding. That is the direct evidence the price move is guessing at.
Next dateJuly monthly metrics, expected mid-August. Not company-confirmed at time of writing.
▼ PLTRChart-2.60% Wed, then -1.58% Thu close, settled
Palantir fell 1.58%, a second day of giving back its post-earnings jump, with nothing new announced.
Notable move · no fresh news · Thursday's session
Closed $155.92, -1.58%, on volume 29% light, a second session of giving back the 3 August jump That report beat at EPS $0.41 against $0.33 expected, and the stock rose 29% on it. Premarket +1.11%, provisional
Why it mattersA stock that jumps 29% on a beat has moved further than the earnings alone justify, and the days after are when that closes. What is being repriced is not the quarter but how many future quarters investors will extrapolate from it.
Already priced in?The 3 August report is priced. Thursday is the fade, not a reaction. The window is Thursday's close, settled.
Alphabet fell a further 1.29%, extending Wednesday's 4.03% fall on the DeepMind departures. No new event landed.
Notable move · Wednesday's news, second day
Closed $357.75, -1.29%, after Wednesday's -4.03%, about -5.3% over two days Volume 27% below average, against Wednesday's 21% above it. Premarket +0.04%, provisional
Why it mattersThe volume shift is the whole story of the second day. Wednesday's fall came on heavy trading, which is institutions repricing the research bench. Thursday's came on light trading, which is drift after the sellers are done.
Already priced in?Mostly. The window is Thursday's close, settled. The collapse in volume between the two days is the evidence.
Would flip ifFurther senior departures are confirmed. The market priced a bounded loss, not an exodus.
Intel fell 1.24% in a chip-sector session, with nothing company-specific announced.
Notable move · no company news · sector
Closed $99.81, -1.24%, after ranging $95.60 to $103.38, a 7.79% swing on volume 39% light. Premarket +0.85%, provisional
Why it mattersAn 8% intraday range resolving to a 1% fall means buyers and sellers disagreed all day and neither won. For Intel that disagreement is structural: the foundry business consumes cash now against customer wins not yet announced. Only disclosure settles it.
Would flip ifA named external foundry customer is disclosed with a dollar value.
Next dateQ3 results, late October. No company-confirmed date yet.
Why it mattersWorth noting only that Tesla trades 35.94% below its own high, behind Robinhood, Nebius and Marvell on that measure, so it has room to recover and no recent evidence that it will.
Apple rose 0.45% with nothing announced in the window.
Minor move · no company news
Closed $312.41, +0.45%, on volume 30% light. The $0.27 dividend was declared with the 30 July results, ex-date 10 August: not a change and not new. Premarket -0.13%, provisional
Why it mattersApple is one of three of the twelve that rose, and it did so while long yields climbed. Profits that arrive now are worth more when the discount rate rises, and Apple's arrive now.
Marvell closed almost flat after an 8.42% intraday swing, the second widest of the twelve.
Minor move · no company news · sector
Ranged $201.74 to $219.46, closing $210.54, -0.23%, an 8.42% swing on volume 32% light. Premarket $216.40, +2.78%, provisional
Why it mattersA stock that falls hard and recovers inside the session has found buyers at the lower price, which matters more than the flat close suggests. Nothing about the business changed.
Closed $589.90, +0.19%, on volume 40% light, 25.92% below its 52-week high. Premarket -0.46%, provisional
Why it mattersFlat is the news after a 9% earnings fall in late July. A stock that stops falling has finished repricing the miss, and further moves need fresh information.
Amazon fell 0.14% on the lightest volume of the twelve.
Minor move · no company news
Closed $272.26, -0.14%, on volume 55.3% below average, the lightest of the twelve, and sits 5.20% below its own high, the smallest such gap of the twelve. Premarket +0.71%, provisional
Why it mattersThe Zoox robotaxi exemption was granted between 30 July and 4 August, so it is not from this window. Amazon closest to its own high on the least trading is a stock nobody is arguing about.
Nvidia was flat, down 0.10%, with no dated company event in the window.
Minor move · no company news
Closed $218.99, -0.10%. Not news: the $5B Safe Superintelligence investment was announced 27 July and recirculated in Thursday coverage. Premarket +0.19%, provisional
Why it mattersWednesday's 3.43% gain on the SpaceX commitment settled and held. Holding a gain matters more than making one, because it says the repricing was accepted rather than traded against.
Next date26 August, Q2 FY27 results.
Read-through
A day with no news is still a measurement, and the volume is what it measured
Take the two ends of Thursday together. Nebius fell 13.29% and Microsoft rose 2.54%, and neither company announced anything. Microsoft's move traces to a dated disclosure nine days old: Azure at 43% against about 40% expected, capex $41B under the $42B feared. Nebius traces to nothing dated at all. Both stocks are priced on AI compute demand. One has revenue arriving against that demand today, one has capacity arriving in 2027, and on a day when the 10-year yield rose to 4.664% the market paid for the first and charged for the second. Rising long yields do not hit AI names evenly. They sort them by when the cash shows up. Now the correction to all of it. Twelve of the twelve traded on below-average volume, Amazon 55.3% light and even Nebius, the day's only violent mover, 4.9% under its own average. There was no capitulation anywhere on this list. A 13% fall on below-average volume is not a verdict, it is an absence of buyers, and those two look identical on a chart and behave nothing alike afterwards. Nebius indicating +3.75% premarket, the largest premarket gain of the twelve, is consistent with reading Thursday as an absence of buyers. Provisional until the bell.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · TSLA · PLTR · MSFT · GOOGL · HOOD · NVDA · INTC · NBIS · MRVL · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not today's news
None of the twelve announced anything in the past 24 hours. That covers earnings, guidance, SEC filings, M&A, spin-offs, debt or equity issuance, buybacks, dividend changes, dollar-value contracts and regulatory or legal action. Every move above is either the sector, the discount rate, or a continuation of an older event. Several items in Thursday and Friday coverage look new and are not, and were excluded on date: Nvidia's $5B investment in Safe Superintelligence was announced 27 July. Amazon's Zoox exemption from NHTSA for steering-wheel-free robotaxis, capped at 2,500 vehicles a year, was granted between 30 July and 4 August, with sources differing on the exact date. Palantir's Q2 was 3 August. Microsoft's Azure quarter was 29 July. Apple's results and its $0.27 dividend declaration were 30 July. Alphabet's DeepMind departures were Wednesday 5 August and are covered above as a second-day move. Robinhood's Q2 was late July. Marvell's weakness is the chip sector, not the company. Note that sec.gov is unreachable from this run, so no filing was read against the document itself. All prices and volumes here come from the Twelve Data API, not from press coverage.
Earnings within 14 days
today, 08:30 ETJuly employment report, after this brief and before the bell. Consensus roughly 83,000 to 100,000 payrolls, unemployment near 4.2%, against June's 57,000. The one number that can reset everything above
12 AugNBIS Q2, before the open, company-confirmed. The only one of the twelve reporting within 14 days
mid-AugHOOD July monthly metrics, expected but not company-confirmed
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27. Outside the 14-day window
27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, after the close. Outside the 14-day window
Alphabet lost four researchers and 4% of its value, and it was up before the news. GOOGL opened at $382.94, reached $384.47, then fell to $356.82 and closed $362.43, -4.03%. That is a 7.2% peak-to-trough swing on the announcement, on volume 21% above average.
Nvidia's premarket read was too cautious, and the close proved it. Yesterday's brief quoted +2.01% premarket and called it provisional. NVDA closed $219.22, +3.43%, on volume 16% above average. The SpaceX exclusivity is now priced, not pending.
Nine of the twelve traded on below-average volume. Only GOOGL, NVDA and PLTR beat their averages. The rest ran 25 to 42% light. Wednesday was a rotation on thin participation, not a verdict on these companies.
Market-wide
The tape split in two. The Dow closed at a record 54,349.12, +0.49%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.83% to 26,363.44, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to 7,723.55, off its own record. Crude stayed under pressure: Iranian and Omani negotiators have a draft deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, awaiting final Iranian approval
How it reaches these stocksCheaper energy lowers input costs for the industrial economy and does almost nothing to software margins. So a Hormuz thaw lifts the Dow's constituents directly and reaches this list only through risk appetite. On Wednesday that channel closed. Money moved from things valued on profits years out to things valued on profits now. Fast-growing tech loses that trade by construction, because more of its value sits further into the future.
QQQ closed 717.30, -0.90%, against SPY -0.20%. QQQ is now 4.19% below its 52-week high of 748.65, having been 3.3% below it a day earlier. QQQ volume ran 34% under its average
Does the gauge agreeIt agrees on direction and warns on conviction. A 0.7 point gap to the broad market is a genuine rotation signal. But the volume behind it was light across the index and light in nine of these twelve names. Thin selling reverses more easily than heavy selling. Treat Wednesday as positioning, and wait for volume to confirm it.
Premarket QQQ 712.13, -0.72%, while SPY indicates +0.16%. The split is widening. Hardware leads down again: NBIS -3.80%, MRVL -2.38%, INTC -2.14%, PLTR -2.16%. Reports have Micron off about 3.4% and SK hynix about 6.1%. All provisional on thin volume
What today still has to clearNo dated company event explains the overnight fall in memory and chip names, so read it as the sector, not as news. Weekly jobless claims land at 08:30 ET, after this brief and before the bell. That is the one scheduled number that can reset the rotation, because a soft labour print revives rate-cut hopes and those help long-duration growth most.
Google restructured DeepMind's leadership and confirmed the departure of four of its most senior AI researchers.
Major move · hard news · during Wednesday's session
Demis Hassabis steps back from DeepMind CEO to become chair of Google DeepMind and chief scientist of Alphabet. Koray Kavukcuoglu becomes SVP of Google DeepMind, reporting to Sundar Pichai, owning Gemini models, frontier research and the Gemini app Chief scientist Jeff Dean leaves after 27 years, with senior fellow Sanjay Ghemawat, Oriol Vinyals and Quoc Le. They found Discovery Loop, a public benefit corporation. Google is a founding investor and its cloud partner GOOGL closed $362.43, -4.03%. It opened $382.94, +1.40%, and peaked at $384.47 before the news, then bottomed at $356.82 Volume 46.3M against a 38.4M average, +21%. The largest one-day fall of the twelve The stock now sits 11.30% below its 52-week high of $408.61 No dollar figure was attached to any of this. It is a personnel and structure event, not a financial disclosure
Why it mattersAlphabet's valuation carries a premium for owning the research bench, not merely the compute to run it. Frontier model quality still depends on a very small number of people, and the market prices that concentration explicitly. Nothing here touches this quarter's revenue or margins. What it moves is confidence in Gemini's roadmap two and three years out. That is the horizon the multiple is built on. Note the honest offset: Google funds Discovery Loop and hosts it, so it retains a claim on the output. The market weighted the exit over the option.
Already priced in?Yes, and quickly. The window is Wednesday's session, settled, not premarket. Watch the sequence: the stock was up 1.4% at the open and rose further before the announcement. The 7.2% peak-to-trough fall that followed is the reaction, and above-average volume says real money moved. Premarket today is $364.22, +0.49%, a small bounce and provisional.
Would flip ifThe next Gemini release ships on time and holds its benchmark lead. That would prove the bench argument wrong and make Wednesday look like an overreaction to headcount.
Next dateQ3 results, late October. No company-confirmed date yet.
Nvidia rose 3.43%, completing the market's response to Tuesday night's SpaceX exclusivity commitment. No new company news landed in this window.
Major move · Tuesday's news, settled Wednesday
Closed $219.22, +3.43%, from $211.94. Yesterday's brief quoted the premarket at +2.01% and marked it provisional. The open confirmed it and added more Volume 156.4M against a 135.0M average, +16%. One of only three of the twelve to trade above average Now 7.32% below its 52-week high of $236.54, the smallest gap on this list after Amazon Premarket today $218.95, -0.12%, flat. The move is finished Not news: the reported $250B Nvidia backstop for OpenAI's Ohio data centre was a WSJ story from 27 July. It resurfaced in Wednesday coverage. It is not from this window
Why it mattersAn exclusivity commitment and a purchase order look similar on the day and behave very differently in a valuation. An order fills one quarter. A single-supplier commitment across a customer's whole build-out converts repeat business into something closer to contracted revenue. That extends the period investors will assume the demand lasts, and the assumed duration is what sets the multiple. The volume matters as much as the price here. A thin premarket drift can reverse; a 16% above-average session says institutions repriced the name rather than traders nudging it.
Already priced in?Yes. The window is Wednesday's close, settled. The premarket read was the provisional signal and the session settled it upward, which is the less common outcome.
Would flip ifSpaceX's own shares keep falling on its capex. A customer punished for spending eventually spends less.
Next date26 August, Q2 FY27 results, the first test of the SpaceX commitment.
▼ MRVLChart-3.46% Wed close, then -2.38% premarket · provisional
Marvell fell 3.46% with nothing announced, giving back part of Tuesday's product-launch rally.
Major move · no company news · sector
Closed $211.02, -3.46%, after rising 12.80% Tuesday close to close, on its FMS 2026 storage and memory launch. Intraday range $210.29 to $222.38 Volume 16.4M against a 24.1M average, -32%. The selling was light Wednesday erased $7.57 of Tuesday's $24.81 gain, 31% of it. Premarket at $206.00 takes the giveback past half Still 36.03% below its 52-week high of $329.88, the second-largest gap here after Robinhood Premarket $206.00, -2.38%, provisional
Why it mattersTuesday's announcement carried products and no revenue. A launch with no order behind it prices in on the day, then decays. Nothing in it changes the backlog, meaning revenue already under contract. One session plus the premarket has erased more than half the gain, all on below-average volume. That is decay, not reassessment. The real number arrives on 27 August.
Already priced in?Not applicable, there is no news to price. Flagged because the size of the move invites a company explanation that does not exist. The driver is the AI hardware complex unwinding, and premarket extends it.
Would flip ifA named customer attaches a dollar value to the Bravera SC6 or Structera line before results.
Next date~27 August, Q2 FY27 results, expected but not company-confirmed.
▼ NBISChart-2.99% Wed close, then -3.80% premarket · provisional
Nebius fell 2.99% with nothing announced, and premarket extends the fall.
Notable move · no company news · sector
Closed $218.99, -2.99%, on volume 15.1M against a 25.9M average, -41.6%, the second-lightest participation of the twelve behind Tesla at -42.3% Now 26.97% below its 52-week high of $299.86 Premarket $210.66, -3.80%, the weakest of the twelve, provisional Not news: the Reflection AI contract worth over $1B through 2029 dates to 14 July, and Nvidia's 9.3% stake disclosure is also older. Neither is from this window
Why it mattersNebius is the highest-beta way to own AI build-out on this list, so it takes the sector's moves amplified in both directions. Nothing about the business changed in two sessions. What changed is the price the market will pay for unproven AI capacity, and next Wednesday replaces that guess with figures.
Already priced in?No news to price. Flagged: a 6.7% fall across two windows on some of the lightest volume here is thin selling, which reverses easily.
Would flip if12 August revenue confirms the contracted pipeline is converting to cash.
Next date12 August, Q2 before the open. The only one of the twelve reporting within 14 days.
▼ PLTRChart-2.60% Wed close, then -2.16% premarket · provisional
Palantir fell 2.60%, a second-day giveback after Tuesday's 29.45% earnings surge.
Notable move · no new news · giveback
Closed $158.43, -2.60%, from $162.66. Volume 61.3M against a 52.9M average, +16% Tuesday's surge added $37.01, from $125.65 to $162.66. Wednesday gave back $4.23 of it, 11% of the gain. Still 23.66% below its 52-week high of $207.52 Premarket $155.00, -2.16%, provisional
Why it mattersA 29% single-day repricing almost always leaks back as the fast money leaves. Handing back roughly a ninth of it by the close is mild, and above-average volume says buyers are meeting sellers. Premarket takes the giveback closer to a fifth, which is worth watching rather than acting on. The Q2 numbers themselves have not been challenged.
Already priced in?The earnings are priced. Wednesday is profit-taking on the same information.
Closed $321.55, -1.77%, on volume 27.5M against a 47.6M average, -42% Still 35.54% below its 52-week high of $498.83. Premarket $321.12, -0.13%, flat
Why it mattersTesla is the one name here with no AI hardware to sell, so this week's enthusiasm passed it by. Its discount to the high is among the widest on the list, and none of it closed. It is being traded as a car company again while the rest are traded on compute.
Next dateQ3 deliveries, early October.
▼ AMZNChart-1.72% Wed close, then +0.90% premarket · provisional
Amazon fell a second day after Bezos's Form 144, with nothing new filed or announced.
Notable · no new news · second down day
Closed $272.65, -1.72%, on volume 42.4M against a 64.1M average, -34% Down 4.0% across two sessions since the Form 144 covering 15 million shares, about $4.07B. Filed 3 August under a 10b5-1 plan adopted 14 November 2025 Only 5.07% below its 52-week high of $287.20, the smallest gap of the twelve. Premarket $275.10, +0.90% Not news: Berkshire's exit from Amazon completed in Q1 2026 and was disclosed in May. Wednesday coverage revisited it
Why it mattersA pre-scheduled insider sale removes no cash from the business and changes no forecast. It works purely on supply: 15 million shares must find buyers. That pressure is mechanical and finite, which is why the premarket bid is worth more attention than the two red sessions.
Already priced in?Largely. The filing is four days old and the premarket has turned up. Provisional until the open.
Closed $487.46, -1.09%, on volume 30.5M against a 48.4M average, -37% 11.97% below its 52-week high of $553.72. Premarket $484.97, -0.51%
Why it mattersMicrosoft is the cleanest read on whether the rotation is anti-AI or anti-duration. It fell less than the Nasdaq on very light volume, which points to indifference rather than selling.
Closed $92.80, -0.76%, on volume 13.0M against a 21.0M average, -38% 39.69% below its 52-week high of $153.86, the largest gap of the twelve No premarket trades had printed at 07:00 ET. The last extended quote was $92.55 from Wednesday evening
Why it mattersRobinhood earns on trading activity, so a market that rotates rather than retreats keeps its volumes intact. The gap to its high reflects last quarter's numbers, not this week's tape.
Next date13 August, Robinhood Ventures Fund II lists on the NYSE as RVII at $25, about $200M.
▲ AAPLChart+0.52% Wed close, then +1.00% premarket · provisional
Apple rose 0.52%, one of three gainers, with nothing announced.
Minor · no company news
Closed $311.00, +0.52%, on volume 44.3M against a 64.1M average, -31% 9.74% below its 52-week high of $344.57. Premarket $314.10, +1.00%, the strongest of the twelve Dividend of $0.27 goes ex on 10 August, previously declared and unchanged Not news: the PlasmaSolve acquisition was disclosed by the European Commission on 3 August and completed in April. No price was given
Why it mattersApple buys memory rather than selling it, so the same chip weakness that is hitting this list premarket lands on Apple as relief. Its September guidance named memory inflation as a headwind. If those prices are turning, the cost line eases and gross margin recovers, and margin is where Apple's earnings power sits.
Already priced in?The premarket gain is provisional and the read is a hypothesis, not a disclosure. The open will settle whether the memory link is what buyers are acting on.
Next date10 August, dividend ex-date. Q4 FY26 results late October.
▲ INTCChart+0.20% Wed close, then -2.14% premarket · provisional
Intel closed up 0.20% after a wide swing, with nothing announced, and premarket reverses it.
Minor · no company news
Closed $101.06, +0.20%, having ranged from $97.90 to $102.83, a 5.0% swing Volume 84.2M against a 131.6M average, -36%. 29.01% below its 52-week high of $142.35 Premarket $98.90, -2.14%, provisional
Why it mattersA 5% intraday range that closes flat means the two sides finished level, and Intel's premarket fall puts it back with the chip complex. This is sector positioning, not a company development.
Meta closed up 0.14% after a 3.5% intraday round trip, with nothing announced.
Minor · no company news
Closed $588.77, +0.14%. It opened $600.53, peaked at $601.00, then fell to $580.12 Volume 14.8M against a 19.8M average, -25%. 26.06% below its 52-week high of $796.25 Premarket $592.10, +0.57%, from an early quote, provisional
Why it mattersMeta spends heavily on AI and sells none of the hardware. It gains nothing when the market pays up for suppliers, and loses nothing when it stops. Its 26% hole reflects late July's earnings, and no session this week has touched it.
Next dateQ3 results, late October.
Read-through
Four people cost as much as an earnings miss, and the volume says who believed it
Start with the asymmetry, because it is the most useful thing on the page. In late July Meta fell more than 9% on an EPS miss, $6.18 against about $7.22 expected. It guided Q3 revenue to $61–64B against $63.15B consensus. On Wednesday Alphabet fell 4.03% because four researchers resigned. One event was a measurable shortfall in money. The other attached no dollar figure to anything. The market priced the second at nearly half the first, and that tells you what it thinks a frontier AI franchise actually is. It is not the capex, which anyone can raise, and not the data, which Alphabet is not losing. It is a thin layer of people who can build the next model. When that layer looks mobile, investors shorten the number of years they will project. Every year removed comes straight out of the multiple. The offset is real and the market ignored it. Google funds Discovery Loop and hosts it, so it keeps a call on whatever the four build. Now the volume, which is the second read-through and cuts the other way. Only three of the twelve traded above their average: GOOGL +21%, NVDA +16%, PLTR +16%. Those three had something to trade on. The other nine ran 25 to 42% light, and QQQ itself was 34% under. So the Dow's record and the Nasdaq's 0.83% fall describe a rotation executed by very few people. Thin moves reverse more easily than heavy ones, and today's open is where that gets tested. Third, the memory link, which points in two directions at once. Premarket has NBIS -3.80%, MRVL -2.38% and INTC -2.14%, with Micron reported near -3.4% and SK hynix near -6.1%. No dated company event explains any of it, so call it the sector and leave the cause open. But note who is going the other way: AAPL is +1.00%, the best of the twelve. Apple buys memory and named its rising cost as a drag on September guidance. The chip complex and Apple are trading the same fact from opposite sides of the invoice, and that is worth more than either move alone.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · TSLA · PLTR · MSFT · HOOD · INTC · NBIS · MRVL · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not today's news
One of the twelve had a company-specific event in the window: GOOGL. Nvidia's +3.43% is Wednesday's settled reaction to Tuesday night's SpaceX call, already covered here yesterday, not a fresh event. Everything else moved without a company cause. Several stories in Wednesday and Thursday coverage are older than this window and were excluded. Nvidia's reported $250B OpenAI backstop is a WSJ report from 27 July. Berkshire's exit from Amazon completed in Q1 2026. Bezos's $4.07B Form 144 was filed 3 August. Apple's PlasmaSolve purchase was disclosed 3 August and completed in April. Nebius's $1B Reflection AI contract dates to 14 July. Marvell's FMS product launch was 4 August. Apple's and Amazon's guidance, Microsoft's Azure figures and Meta's quarter are all from late July. Across the twelve, nothing was announced in the past 24 hours. That covers earnings, M&A, buybacks, dividend changes, debt and equity issuance, dollar-value contracts and regulatory action. Note that sec.gov was unreachable from this run, so no filing could be checked against the document itself. All prices and volumes here come from a market data API, not from press coverage.
Earnings within 14 days
12 AugNBIS Q2, before the open, company-confirmed. The only one of the twelve reporting within 14 days
13 AugHOOD: Robinhood Ventures Fund II lists on the NYSE as RVII at $25, about $200M. Dated, but not an earnings event
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27, the first test of the SpaceX commitment. Outside the 14-day window
~27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, expected but not company-confirmed. Outside the 14-day window
today, 08:30 ETWeekly initial jobless claims, after this brief and before the bell. The one scheduled number that can reset the rotation
Nvidia was handed a multi-year customer, not an order. On SpaceX's first public earnings call, Musk said its AI data centres will be built exclusively with Nvidia chips. SpaceX spent $15.8B on AI compute in Q2 against $7.7B in Q1, and targets over 2 GW by end-2026 rising toward 10 GW by end-2027.
Palantir's verdict is now settled, and it is bigger than the premarket said. PLTR closed $162.66, +29.45%, its largest day since 4 February 2025. It opened +15.5% and gained another 12% through the session. Premarket -0.65%: the reaction is finished.
Bezos filed to sell $4.07B of Amazon and the $3T milestone lasted one day. A Form 144 covering 15 million shares landed Tuesday. AMZN closed -2.32%, the worst on the list, on an index that rose 3.40%.
Market-wide
The driver was oil, and it came from Washington. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is "in talks with the Iranians" over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and flagged relief across energy, fertilisers, refined products and industrial gases. Crude fell again. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,736.52, +1.79%, and the Dow added 907 points to 54,085.88
How it reaches these stocksCheaper energy is an input cost story for the industrial economy and barely touches software margins directly. It reaches this list through risk appetite instead. A credible de-escalation removes a tail risk that had been sitting on the discount rate, and anything valued on profits years out gains most when that risk premium comes off. That is why the tech index moved almost twice the broad market.
QQQ closed 723.85, +3.40%, against SPY +1.80%. A gap of 1.6 points in one session. QQQ is now only 3.3% below its 52-week high of 748.65, the smallest gap since the July drawdown began
Does the gauge agreeIt agrees, and it overstates. The index gain did not come from the megacaps: Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet each added around 1%, Meta and Amazon fell. It came from the second tier, chips and Palantir. Do not read Tuesday as Big Tech recovering. Read it as the market paying up for the parts of AI that sell into the build-out.
Premarket QQQ 724.45, +0.08%, essentially flat, while SPY indicates +0.39%. The reversal sits in chips: AMD -8.58%, INTC -2.59%, MRVL -1.53%, NBIS -2.65%. All provisional, thin volume
Where the macro read breaksThe Hormuz story is still positive this morning, yet the tech gauge is flat. That contradiction is company news, not macro: AMD reported after the close and fell. Tuesday's chip rally was built on sentiment about AI demand, and one set of margins was enough to unwind a fifth of it before the bell. The open will settle whether it holds.
Items · sorted by size
▲ NVDAChart+2.56% Tue close, then +2.01% premarket · provisional
On SpaceX's first earnings call as a public company, Elon Musk said SpaceX will build its AI data centres exclusively with Nvidia chips.
Notable move · major news · after Tuesday's close
SpaceX Q2 capex (spending on buildings, equipment and technology) $18.37B against $18.58B forecast, of which $15.8B went to AI compute, versus $7.7B in Q1 Musk guided to over 2 GW of compute by end-2026 and "closer to 10 GW" by end-2027. He also floated 15 GW with a 20 GW stretch. Accounts of the call differ, so treat 10 GW as the firm figure Musk said SpaceX expects "a very significant percent" of Nvidia's GPU supply next year. No dollar value and no contract term were disclosed SpaceX revenue $7.8B vs $6.81B consensus, +92% y/y from $4.1B. Adjusted EBITDA $3.5B vs $2.0B expected. SPCX fell about 11% premarket Separately this morning, Nvidia server assembler Hon Hai reported July sales +54.2% y/y NVDA closed $211.94, +2.56%; 10.4% below its 52-week high of $236.54
Why it mattersNvidia's demand this quarter has not been in doubt for two years. The open question is how many years of it investors should pay for, and exclusivity is the rare piece of evidence that speaks to duration rather than to volume. Locking one buyer to a single supplier through a five-fold capacity build converts a repeat order into something closer to contracted revenue, which is what lengthens the runway the multiple rests on. The second-order point is sharper: this is demand taken from somebody, and it was announced on the same evening a rival's margins disappointed.
Already priced in?No. Tuesday's +2.56% close happened before the call and is not a reaction to it. The premarket +2.01% at $216.20 is the reaction and is provisional. It is rising while AMD falls 8.6%, which suggests the market is reading this as share moving between suppliers rather than sector enthusiasm.
Would flip ifSpaceX's own shares keep falling on the capex. SPCX is down about 11% premarket. A customer punished for spending is a customer that eventually spends less.
The market finished pricing Monday's Q2 report. Palantir closed up 29.45%, its largest single day since February 2025.
Major · Tuesday close · settled reaction to Monday's Q2
Close $162.66 from $125.65, +29.45%. Opened $145.15 (+15.5%) and added roughly another 12% through the session. Intraday high $164.52 Coverage quotes anything from 20% to 30% because the pieces were written at different hours. The close-to-close figure is +29.45% Largest one-day gain since 4 February 2025 (+23.9%). Still 21.6% below its 52-week high of $207.52 Premarket $161.60, -0.65%
Why it mattersAn opening gap can be short covering. A stock that gaps 15% and then adds another 12% over six hours is being bought by people who had the whole day to read the filing. That distinction decides whether a re-rating sticks, because it tells you the higher multiple has holders behind it rather than closed positions. The practical consequence is that this level is now the base from which November gets judged, and the guidance raise has to keep being beaten from here.
Already priced in?Yes, and Tuesday's close is settled, not provisional. The premarket -0.65% says the reaction is done. Yesterday's brief could only quote the premarket +16%; the session doubled it.
Would flip ifThe 149% US commercial growth turns out to rest on a handful of very large deals rather than broad adoption.
Marvell unveiled AI memory and storage products at the FMS 2026 conference. No customer and no dollar value were attached.
Major · Tuesday close · product news, no dollar value
Close $218.59 from $193.78, +12.80%. Reports quote 10% to 13%; the close-to-close figure is 12.80% Products: Bravera SC6 PCIe 6.0 SSD controller, said to double the prior SC5; Structera X memory expansion; Photonic Fabric for shared memory across racks Still 33.7% below its 52-week high of $329.88. Premarket $215.25, -1.53%
Why it mattersA product preview with no customer and no price should not be worth $20B of market value. What moved the stock is where these products sit. Memory, not logic, is the binding constraint in AI inference right now, and it is the same shortage lifting Apple's component costs. Selling into a bottleneck changes which side of a shortage a company stands on, and the market repriced that position rather than any revenue. None of this touches the income statement for at least a year.
Already priced in?Overdone, most likely. Flag it. The close is settled but a 12.8% move on an unpriced preview is positioning, and the premarket -1.53% has begun handing it back.
Would flip ifThe August results show current custom silicon revenue slipping while these products remain unshipped.
Next dateQ2 FY27 results, expected around 27 August, not company-confirmed.
Intel rose 10.8% with no company announcement, the second largest move on the list.
Major · Tuesday close · sector, not company
Close $100.86 from $91.00, +10.84%. Reports quote 8.5% to 10% because several were filed intraday Chips rallied as a block: AMD +7.00%, Broadcom up around 6%. July had taken Intel down roughly 24% Its Fortinet foundry deal was 21–22 July and carried no disclosed dollar value. Nothing has been announced since Still 29.1% below its 52-week high of $142.35. Premarket $98.25, -2.59%
Why it mattersSay it plainly: there was no Intel news. This was a sector rally plus short positions being closed after a heavy July. A stock that rises on other companies' results has not changed its own ability to earn, and the premarket give-back is the evidence. Watch the direction of the give-back too: Intel is falling this morning on AMD's margins, which is the market treating it as a chip proxy rather than as a foundry rebuild.
Already priced in?There is nothing company-specific to price. Flag it: a double-digit move with no event is positioning, and positioning unwinds faster than facts.
Jeff Bezos filed a Form 144 disclosing the sale of 15 million Amazon shares, worth about $4.07 billion.
Notable · Tuesday close · SEC filing
15,000,000 shares, aggregate market value about $4.07B at Monday's close. Sold Monday through Morgan Stanley Executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 14 November 2025, which permits up to 15 million shares through 26 February 2027. The plan predates this price by nine months Close $277.42, -2.32%. The $3 trillion market value reached Monday lasted one session Only 3.4% below its 52-week high of $287.20, the smallest gap on this list. Premarket $280.00, +0.93%
Why it mattersThe plan was adopted long before the run, so this is not a founder judging his shares expensive, and reading it as a signal is the most common way to misread a filing. What it does do is add real supply at the moment a stock has risen 15% in four sessions with no new figures behind it. Amazon's vulnerability on Tuesday was not information, it was that the marginal buyer had already bought. A $4B seller is the first to discover that.
Already priced in?Yes. The close is settled and the fall was the reaction. Premarket +0.93% suggests holders have accepted the mechanical read, though that is provisional.
Would flip ifA further filing extends selling beyond the 15 million shares this plan covers.
Nebius rose 6.2% with no company announcement, a second straight session driven by the sector.
Major · Tuesday close · sector, not company
Close $225.74, +6.19%. Up 18.6% across two sessions with nothing company-specific in either Intraday range was wide, roughly $215 to $229. Still 24.7% below its 52-week high of $299.86 Premarket $219.75, -2.65%. Q2 results confirmed for 12 August, before the open
Why it mattersTwo sessions, no news, up almost a fifth. This is the AI infrastructure trade repricing, and Nebius is the highest-beta way to hold it. The consequence lands on 12 August: the stock has moved ahead of the numbers, so the numbers now have to justify a level the market set on sentiment. That raises the downside if contracted revenue converts to cash more slowly than the build consumes it.
Already priced in?Nothing company-specific exists to price. Flag it, and note the premarket is already reversing.
Tesla's Shanghai plant reported July wholesale sales of 93,579 vehicles, its ninth straight month of annual growth.
Notable · Tuesday close · monthly volume data
93,579 units, +37.85% y/y. Highest July on record and the best month since December 2025's 97,171 Year to date 561,528 units, +29.88% on the same period of 2025 The mix is the catch: Q2 exports from Shanghai were 128,394 against 126,157 domestic deliveries, the first quarter exports have exceeded home sales China deliveries fell 2.05% y/y in Q2, a fifth straight quarterly decline. China is now 26.28% of global volume, under 30% for the first time since Q4 2020 Close $327.35, +1.64%; 34.4% below its 52-week high of $498.83. Premarket $324.00, -1.02%
Why it mattersThe growth is real but it is leaving through the export door, not the Chinese one. That changes the risk attached to the number rather than its size: export volume depends on tariffs, shipping and foreign demand, all decided outside Tesla, while domestic volume depends on the product. A plant at record output serving foreign markets is a manufacturing win and a demand warning in the same figure. Investors set Tesla's price on volume growth, so which door it comes through decides how durable that growth looks.
Already priced in?Only partly. The +1.64% close is settled but arrived on a +3.40% index day, so Tesla underperformed while holding good headline numbers. The market is weighting the domestic decline. Premarket -1.02% is provisional and probably the Musk-complex read from SpaceX's capex.
Would flip ifAugust export volumes fall while domestic deliveries stay negative, removing the one leg still growing.
Robinhood rose 3.5%, almost exactly in line with the index, with nothing announced in the window.
Major move · Tuesday close · no company news in the window
Close $93.51, +3.51%, against QQQ +3.40%. Still 39.2% below its 52-week high of $153.86 The Robinhood Ventures Fund II roadshow began 3 August, outside this window. The listing is 13 August on the NYSE as RVII, up to 8 million shares at $25, about $200M, of which Robinhood itself sells 400,000
Why it mattersMatching the index to within a tenth of a point is the tell that nothing company-specific happened here.
Next date13 August, RVII lists. Q3 results 4 November.
Apple rose 2.0% and ended three sessions of underperformance, with nothing released since 30 July.
Notable · Tuesday close · no company news
Close $309.38, +1.96%, against QQQ +3.40%. It still lagged the index by 1.4 points 10.2% below its 52-week high of $344.57. Premarket $310.54, +0.37%
Why it mattersA bounce that lags the index by 1.4 points on a risk-on day is not a change of view, it is the selling stopping. The memory cost problem from the 30 July guidance is untouched, and Marvell's 12.8% day is a reminder of who is on the other side of that shortage.
Next date10 August, $0.27 dividend ex-date. Tim Cook hands over to John Ternus on 1 September.
Alphabet rose 1.1%, well behind the index, with nothing announced.
Notable · Tuesday close · no company news
Close $377.65, +1.11%; 7.6% below its 52-week high of $408.61, the second smallest gap here Premarket $383.11, +1.45%, the strongest megacap indication this morning
Why it mattersLagging a 3.4% index day after three sessions of gains is what a stock does when it has already re-rated. The premarket lead this morning is the more interesting number, and there is no news behind it to explain.
Microsoft rose 1.1% with nothing company-specific since its 28 July quarter.
Notable · Tuesday close · no company news
Close $492.81, +1.06%; 11.0% below its 52-week high of $553.72. Premarket $496.00, +0.65%
Why it mattersMonday it led on a rate move; Tuesday it lagged on a risk move. The money that bought megacap balance sheets when yields fell went to chips and Palantir when the appetite returned.
Meta fell 0.4%, one of only two on the list to decline, with nothing announced.
Minor · Tuesday close · no company news
Close $587.94, -0.39%, having risen 6.02% the day before. Still 26.2% below its 52-week high of $796.25, the largest gap here after Robinhood and Tesla Premarket $596.06, +1.38%
Why it mattersMeta is the purest test of the day's logic. It spends heavily on AI and sells none of the equipment, so on a session that paid for suppliers it had nothing to offer. The 26% hole below its high has not closed on any of this.
Next dateQ3 results, late October.
Read-through
Two beats, two opposite reactions, and the test that separates them
AMD is not on this list but it decided the morning. It closed +7.00% at $518.58, then reported after the bell and fell 8.58% to about $474 premarket. The quarter beat: revenue $11.536B, +52% y/y against $11.28B expected, adjusted EPS $1.66 vs $1.62, data centre $6.7B, +107%, and Q3 guided to roughly $12.7–13.3B, above consensus. Reports differ on the margin line: some quote a Q2 gross margin of 54% against 56% expected, others a flat 56% Q3 guide. Note first that AMD's +7% happened before the report. It was not a reaction to it. Now the asymmetry. Palantir beat and rose 29%. AMD beat and fell 9%. The difference is what the beat was made of. Palantir's acceleration arrived with a 62% operating margin attached and almost no capital behind it. AMD's growth is being bought with gross margin and with a costly ramp. Investors are paying a high price for AI revenue that comes without a bill and discounting AI revenue that comes with one. That same test explains why Nvidia rose 2% premarket on the SpaceX news while AMD fell: an exclusivity commitment is revenue at no incremental cost, and it is taken from a competitor. The read-through that matters most for this list is the size of SpaceX's cheque. $15.8B of AI compute spending in a single quarter, doubling from $7.7B, is a cost line for SpaceX and a revenue line for Nvidia, and by extension for Marvell and the neoclouds that build alongside it. Hon Hai's +54.2% July sales say the same thing from the assembly side. But note what the market did with the messenger: SpaceX itself fell 11% premarket for spending the money. That is the third time in two weeks a company has been punished for AI capex while its suppliers were rewarded. Alphabet, Meta and Amazon all took that treatment in late July. The buyers of AI capacity and the sellers of it are being valued by opposite rules, and this list contains both.
Nothing material
AAPL · MSFT · GOOGL · META · HOOD · INTC · NBIS, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not today's news
Four of the twelve had company-specific events in the window: NVDA through SpaceX's call, AMZN's Form 144, MRVL's product launch and TSLA's July China volumes. PLTR's move is the settled reaction to Monday's report, already covered yesterday. Everything else moved on the tape. Be careful with recycled coverage this morning. Robinhood's RVII roadshow began 3 August and its FCA crypto registration is dated 31 July. Marvell's $540M XConn acquisition was announced 6 January and completed 10 February, not now. Intel's Fortinet foundry deal was 21–22 July. Apple's guidance was 30 July, Amazon's AWS figures 30 July, Meta's capex guide 29 July, Robinhood's Q2 29 July, Microsoft's quarter 28 July, Intel's 23 July, Alphabet's and Tesla's 22 July. Nebius's Reflection AI contract was 14 July. None of that is news from the past 24 hours. Across the twelve, no M&A, buyback, dividend change, debt or equity issuance or new regulatory action was announced in the window. The only SEC filing was Bezos's Form 144. Note also that sec.gov was unreachable from this run, so filing details here come from press coverage of the filing rather than from the document itself.
Earnings within 14 days
12 AugNBIS Q2, before the open, company-confirmed. The only one of the twelve reporting within 14 days
13 AugHOOD: Robinhood Ventures Fund II lists on the NYSE as RVII at $25, about $200M. Not an earnings event, but a dated one
~27 AugMRVL Q2 FY27, expected but not company-confirmed
26 AugNVDA Q2 FY27, the first test of the SpaceX commitment
Palantir accelerated when it was supposed to slow. Revenue $1.935B, +93% y/y, against consensus of $1.80B and +81%. Growth was 85% last quarter. The full-year guide went from $7.656B to $8.150–8.158B. Premarket +16%, provisional.
Monday was a macro session, not a company one. QQQ closed +1.76% at 700.07 as the 10-year fell to 4.67%. Yesterday's split reversed completely: the debt-funded names led, NBIS +11.6% and MRVL +3.3%. Ten of the twelve had no company news.
Apple was the only one of the twelve to fall. Down 1.78% on a day the index rose 1.76%, with nothing released since the 30 July guidance. That gap is the second thing worth your time today.
Market-wide
The Fed is the one that matters, and it is pointing the wrong way. July's FOMC held at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with all three dissents wanting an immediate rise. Futures and prediction markets put a September hike somewhere between 57% and 68%; reports differ because they quote different instruments
How it reaches these stocksAlmost every model here values profits that arrive years out, so the rate used to discount them does more damage than any single quarter's numbers. A hiking cycle, rather than a cutting one, caps how much investors will pay per dollar of distant earnings. It hurts the companies that must borrow to build before they earn, which is why the list splits the way it does.
Oil kept falling and the long end finally followed. The 10-year yield fell to about 4.67%, down from 4.74% last week, its highest since January 2025. Brent stayed near $84 after the weekend's slide on the Iran talks
Why this is different from yesterdayOn Monday morning crude had collapsed and yields had barely moved, so the borrowers were sold. By the close the yield had come down and the same names led the market. That is the clearest evidence you will get that this list trades on the cost of money, not on the oil price. Watch the 10-year, not the barrel.
QQQ closed at 700.07, +1.76%, its first close above 700. It remains 6.5% below its 52-week high of 748.65. Premarket it indicates near 704, about +0.6%, though sources differ slightly
Does the gauge agreeIt does, and that is the point. A near 2% index day with no earnings behind it means the whole move came from the discount rate easing. Do not read Monday's individual gainers as company stories. Only Palantir and Robinhood had anything of their own.
Palantir reported Q2 after Monday's close, beating on revenue and raising full-year guidance sharply.
Major · earnings · after Monday's close
Revenue $1.935B, +93% y/y, vs consensus $1.80–1.81B and +81%. Last quarter was +85% US commercial $764M, +149%; US government $809M, +90% Adjusted EPS $0.41 vs consensus near $0.35; reports differ on the estimate, between $0.33 and $0.35 GAAP net income $1.062B, a 55% margin; adjusted operating income $1.194B, 62% margin Full-year guide raised to $8.150–8.158B (+82%) from $7.656B (+71%). US commercial guide now above $3.424B, at least +134% Adjusted free cash flow guide (cash left after spending) $4.5–4.7B. Q3 guide $2.160–2.164B. Rule of 40 score 155. 220 deals of $1M or more
Why it mattersThe direction of the growth rate was the whole question, and it went the wrong way for the sceptics. Investors had been discounting a business decelerating from a peak, which sets a limit on how many years of compounding they will pay for. An acceleration removes that ceiling and forces them to extend the runway instead, which lifts the valuation far more than the earnings beat does. The raise to the US commercial line matters most. That is the part with no government budget cycle attached, and the part that justifies the multiple.
Already priced in?No. Monday's +2.10% close at $125.65 happened before the report and is not a reaction to it. The premarket +16% is the reaction, and it is provisional. Options had priced a 12% move either way. The open will settle whether this is a re-rating or a squeeze.
Would flip ifThe US commercial jump turns out to lean on a few very large deals rather than broad adoption. That would make 149% a one-off, not a run rate.
Apple fell alone while the other eleven rose, with nothing released since its 30 July guidance.
Notable · Monday close · no new company news
Monday close $303.42, -1.78%, against QQQ +1.76%. A gap of about 3.5 points in one session Now 11.9% below its 52-week high of $344.57 The cause is still 30 July: Q4 revenue guided to +9–11%, roughly $113B, against $114.9B expected, with memory costs and China named Careful with the coverage this morning: the -7.35% day was Friday 31 July, not Monday The $0.27 dividend, declared 30 July, goes ex on 10 August
Why it mattersFalling on a day when the discount rate eased tells you Apple's problem is not the cost of money. It is the cost of components, and that lands on gross margin rather than on the multiple. Rising memory prices are a direct consequence of everyone else's AI spending. So the same boom lifting this list squeezes the one company here that buys memory rather than sells it. That makes Apple the natural funding source when investors want to own the boom.
Already priced in?Flag this one. Three straight sessions of underperformance on a single guidance statement suggests holders are still repositioning, not that the news is fully absorbed. The window is Monday's close, which is settled.
Would flip ifMemory contract prices roll over, which would take the margin pressure out of the December quarter before it is reported.
Next date10 August, dividend ex-date. Tim Cook hands over to John Ternus on 1 September.
Amazon closed above a $3 trillion market value for the first time, the fifth company ever to do so.
Major · Monday close · milestone, not new information
Monday close $284.02, +4.58%, after an intraday record of $287.16 Fifth company ever above $3T, after NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT and AAPL The figures behind it are from Thursday 30 July, not from Monday: AWS $42.2B, +37% y/y, against $40.54B expected Third straight session of gains since that report
Why it mattersThe milestone itself is arithmetic and changes nothing. What it marks is worth noting: a third consecutive session of buying, on volume, after a 15% gap. Gaps that keep filling upward mean long-term holders have re-rated the business rather than traders chasing a headline. The market has decided AWS is an AI winner, not a cloud business with an AI problem. That judgement is what the extra trillion represents.
Already priced in?Largely, yes. Monday's close is settled and no new figure has been released since 30 July. Do not treat the $3T headline as an event; it is a consequence of one.
Would flip ifAWS growth slows next quarter while the $220B capex guide keeps running, turning the spend into a margin problem before the backlog converts.
Nebius rose 11.6% with no company announcement, alongside every other neocloud stock.
Major · Monday close · sector, not company
Monday close $212.58, +11.64%; still 29% below its 52-week high of $299.86 CRWV and IREN rose with it. That is the tell Its $1B Reflection AI contract was 14 July, three weeks ago, and is being recycled in this morning's coverage Q2 results are confirmed for 12 August, before the open
Why it mattersSay this plainly: there was no Nebius news. This is the rate move reaching the most leveraged name on the list first. Nebius borrows to build data centres and bills the capacity out over years. So a seven basis point fall in the 10-year changes its economics more than anyone else's here. A double-digit move on a small yield change also shows how thin the equity cushion is under that debt.
Already priced in?There is nothing company-specific to price. Flag it: an 11.6% move with no event is a positioning move, and those reverse faster than facts do.
Would flip ifThe 12 August results show contracted revenue converting to cash slower than the build-out consumes it.
Robinhood's UK arm was added to the FCA's register of approved cryptoasset firms.
Major · Monday close · regulatory, no dollar value
Monday close $90.34, +4.37%; still 41% below its 52-week high of $153.86 The register entry is dated 31 July. It was reported on 3 August Scope is narrow: it can arrange and transmit orders, but cannot hold customer crypto, take client money or run an exchange The full UK regime starts 25 October 2027. Applications open 30 September 2026 and this registration does not convert automatically
Why it mattersNo revenue attaches to this yet, so treat it as an option rather than an earning asset. Its value is that it converts a closed market into an addressable one, and Robinhood's UK business currently earns nothing from crypto. The caveat matters as much as the approval. Without custody or an exchange, it captures only the thinnest part of the fee stack until it wins the 2027 authorisation.
Already priced in?Hard to separate. Monday's 4.37% came on a day the whole market rose 1.76%, so perhaps two-thirds of it is the tape. The window is Monday's close, settled.
Would flip ifThe FCA application window opens on 30 September and Robinhood's filing reveals it cannot meet the custody requirements.
Next date30 September, applications open. Q3 results 4 November.
Meta rose 6% on no company news, the biggest megacap gain of the session.
Major · Monday close · no company news
Monday close $590.24, +6.02%; still 25.9% below its 52-week high of $796.25 Its $130–145B capex guide came with the 29 July quarter
Why it mattersThe size of the bounce is the information. Meta was punished hardest in July for its capex guide, so it gains most when the rate used to judge that spending falls. Nothing about the spending changed. Only the arithmetic applied to it did, which is why a 25.9% hole remains.
Microsoft rose 4.9% with nothing company-specific since its 28 July quarter.
Major · Monday close · no company news
Monday close $487.65, +4.93%; 11.9% below its 52-week high of $553.72
Why it mattersRead this against Apple, which fell the same day. Both are megacaps with strong balance sheets, but Microsoft sells the AI capacity that is bidding up memory prices while Apple buys the memory. The tape separated the seller from the buyer.
Alphabet rose 4.9% on no news, a third straight session of gains.
Major · Monday close · no company news
Monday close $373.51, +4.88%; 8.6% below its 52-week high of $408.61, the smallest gap on this list after Amazon
Why it mattersThree sessions of buying with no event means flows, not facts. Alphabet has recovered nearest to its high because it funds its AI build from search cash. Investors treat that capex as self-financed rather than borrowed. That distinction is doing most of the work across this list right now.
Tesla rose 3.5% with nothing company-specific since its 2 July delivery figures.
Major · Monday close · no company news
Monday close $322.08, +3.49%; 35.4% below its 52-week high of $498.83, the weakest recovery on the list
Why it mattersWorth one caution. Cheaper petrol shrinks the running-cost saving that sells an electric car, so the oil move is a mild negative for Tesla's demand. It rose anyway, which means it traded as a high-beta index proxy on Monday rather than on its own economics.
Next dateJuly China registrations, due in the coming days.
Marvell rose 3.3% with no company announcement, on the same funding-cost relief that lifted Nebius.
Major · Monday close · sector, not company
Monday close $193.77, +3.31%; 41.3% below its 52-week high of $329.88 Marvell has announced nothing since June and has not yet reported this quarter
Why it mattersMarvell's custom silicon programmes are funded years before the revenue arrives, so it trades on the discount rate more than on orders. The 41% hole below its high measures what a year of rising yields did to a company whose products are still selling well.
Next dateQ2 FY27 results, expected around 27 August, not yet company-confirmed.
Nvidia rose 2.9% on no company news, lagging the software names it supplies.
Major · Monday close · sector, not company
Monday close $206.64, +2.93%; 12.6% below its 52-week high of $236.54
Why it mattersNvidia rising less than Meta or Microsoft on a pure rate day is mildly informative. It suggests investors are treating the AI trade as a question about who monetises, not about who supplies, since supply is no longer in doubt.
Intel rose 0.9%, the weakest gain of the eleven that rose, with no news since July.
Minor · Monday close · no company news
Monday close $91.00, +0.89%, against QQQ +1.76% Its Fortinet foundry deal was 21–22 July and carried no disclosed dollar value
Why it mattersUnderperforming a rate-relief rally is the opposite of what a heavily indebted rebuild story should do. It suggests the market doubts Intel converts cheaper money into returns, which is a company judgement rather than a sector one.
Next dateQ3 results, late October.
Read-through
Yesterday's split ran backwards, and that tells you what this list actually trades on
Monday morning the borrowers were being sold: Nebius, Marvell and Intel were all down before the bell while Microsoft and Alphabet were up. By the close the order had flipped. Nebius finished +11.6% and Marvell +3.3%, both ahead of the index. What changed between the open and the close was not oil, which had already fallen over the weekend. It was the 10-year yield coming down to 4.67% from 4.74%. Seven basis points reversed the entire ranking. Hold on to that: the dividing line across these twelve is the cost of money, and the oil price only matters through it. The asymmetry worth your attention is Apple against Microsoft. Both are cash-rich megacaps, both moved on no news, and they finished 6.7 points apart. Microsoft sells the AI capacity driving memory prices up. Apple buys that memory and has already told the market it will cost margin. The same boom is a revenue line for one and an input cost for the other. Monday was the session where investors priced that difference, not the balance sheets. Palantir sits on the same side as Microsoft, and more purely. It sells enterprise AI software with almost no capital intensity. That is why 149% US commercial growth arrives with a 62% operating margin attached. If that print holds through today's open, it strengthens the case that the market now pays for AI monetisation, not for the machinery underneath it. Nvidia's 2.9%, the smallest gain among the big AI names on a day made for them, is the quiet evidence for that.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · TSLA · MSFT · GOOGL · NVDA · INTC · NBIS · MRVL · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not today's news
Only PLTR and HOOD had company-specific events in the window, and Robinhood's register entry is dated 31 July. Everything else moved on the rate and the tape. Be careful with recycled coverage this morning. Several stories are being retold with fresh datelines. Apple's -7.35% session was Friday 31 July, and its guidance was 30 July. Amazon's AWS figures were 30 July. Meta's capex guide was 29 July. Microsoft's quarter was 28 July, Intel's was 23 July, Alphabet's and Tesla's were 22 July. Intel's Fortinet foundry deal was 21–22 July. Nebius's $1B Reflection AI contract was 14 July. Marvell has announced nothing since June. None of that is news from the past 24 hours. No 8-K, 13-D/G, M&A, buyback or dividend change was announced across the twelve in the window.
Earnings within 14 days
12 AugNBIS Q2, before the open, company-confirmed. The only one of the twelve reporting within 14 days
Mon 3 Aug 2026PLTR, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, MRVL, INTC, NBIS, META
The 30-second version
The weekend undid last week's driver. Trump called off a planned strike on Iran on Sunday and said talks resume today. Brent fell as much as 7.3% to $81.55. Index futures rose.
The relief is not spread evenly. Premarket, software is up and silicon is down: MSFT +1.8%, GOOGL +1.8%, META +1.2%, against MRVL -1.6%, INTC -1.6%, NBIS -1.3%, NVDA -0.4%.
Everything below the macro section is premarket and provisional. Volume before the bell is thin and these moves reverse often. The open settles it. PLTR reports after tonight's close, the only hard company event on the list.
Market-wide
Iran, and the oil unwind. Trump said on Sunday he called off a "massive attack" after Gulf allies pressed for a deal, and that talks restart today. Brent for October fell as much as 7.3% to $81.55; WTI traded near $80 against Friday's $84.67 settle. Reports differ on the exact drop, between 5% and 7.5%, because they quote different contracts
How it reaches these stocksOil was the whole chain last week: crude up, headline inflation up, rate-rise odds up, and a higher rate used to value distant profits. Take 7% off crude and the chain runs backwards. Tech holds most of its earnings far in the future, so it gains the most per point of yield relief.
The bond market barely moved. The 10-year yield fell just over 1 basis point to 4.688%. The 30-year fell about 4 basis points to 5.226%, still near Friday's 19-year high of 5.25%. Iran's foreign ministry then said on Monday it has no immediate plan for direct talks with Washington
This is the day's real tellA 7% oil collapse bought four basis points at the long end. That says last week's yield damage was never mainly about oil. It is about government borrowing and doubt over the Fed's next move. So the funding-cost headwind on capital-hungry names does not lift with the oil price, which is exactly what the premarket split shows.
QQQ indicates near 691 premarket, about +0.47% on Friday's 687.99 close. Nasdaq-100 futures were up about 0.59%. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,489.72
Where the gauge disagreesHalf a percent is a thin reward for unwinding a month-long war premium in crude. Either the market doubts the truce holds, and Tehran's Monday comment supports that, or it never priced the war as heavily as the oil tape implied. Treat the number as provisional until the bell.
Palantir reports second-quarter results after tonight's close, the only confirmed company event on the list.
Major · premarket · no news yet
Consensus: revenue $1.812B, +81% y/y; EPS $0.34 Last quarter: revenue $1.6B, +85% y/y, the company's highest growth rate ever Company's own full-year guide, raised in May: $7.656B, +71%, with US commercial up at least 120% Segment estimates: government $916M (+66%), commercial $892M (+98%) Options price a move of roughly 12% either way; the stock closed Friday at $123.06, well below its high
Why it mattersPalantir is priced on the growth rate, not this quarter's profit. Consensus already assumes it slips from 85% to 81%, so meeting it confirms the peak is behind. What decides the stock is the full-year guide. Each raise extends how many years investors assume this compounding lasts, and that assumption, not the quarter, is most of the share price.
Already priced in?Cannot be. The premarket +3.4% is positioning ahead of the print, not a reaction to it. Nothing has been reported. Eight straight beats mean a beat alone is the base case, so the bar is a raise.
Would flip ifUS commercial growth falls below the 120% full-year guide, since that line is the entire agentic-AI case for the stock.
Microsoft indicates near $473 with nothing company-specific in the window.
Notable · premarket · no company news
Friday close $464.72, +3.0% on the day Premarket $473, about +1.8% Last news: Wednesday's quarter, five sessions ago
Why it mattersThis is the oil unwind reaching the names that fund growth from their own cash. Microsoft's Azure case rests on demand it has already contracted, so a lower discount rate lifts it without needing cheaper debt. That is why it leads a risk-on tape while the borrowers lag.
Already priced in?Premarket only, so provisional. There is no company news to price. This is the sector and the macro, not Microsoft.
Would flip ifThe Iran talks collapse today and crude retakes $88, putting the discount-rate pressure straight back on.
Alphabet indicates near $362 on no company news, extending Friday's 6.7% gain.
Notable · premarket · no company news
Friday close $356.13, +6.7% Premarket $362.40, about +1.8% Its quarter was 22 July, twelve days ago
Why it mattersTwo straight sessions of gains on no news means the buying is positional, not informational. Investors are moving money into the cash-rich end of large-cap tech while the funding cost for everyone else stays high. That widens the valuation gap between self-funded and debt-funded AI.
Already priced in?Nothing to price. Flag this one: a second large move without an event usually means flows, and flows reverse faster than facts.
Would flip ifThe $195–205B capex guide comes back into focus as long yields resume rising, since that spend is what the market punished in July.
Amazon indicates near $276, adding to Friday's 15.3% gain with nothing new reported.
Notable · premarket · no company news
Friday close $271.58, +15.32%, on 128M shares Premarket $276, about +1.6% Behind it: AWS $42.2B, +37%; backlog $496B; capex guide ~$220B, all from Thursday night
Why it mattersA third consecutive session of buying after a 15% gap is the useful signal here. Gaps that keep filling upward on volume mean long-term holders re-rated the business, rather than traders chasing a headline. Cheaper fuel also cuts Amazon's delivery cost and leaves households more to spend, which reaches the retail half directly.
Already priced in?Friday's move is settled and largely priced. Today's premarket is not a reaction to anything, since no new figure has been released.
Would flip ifAWS growth slows next quarter while $220B of capex keeps running, turning the spend into a margin problem before the backlog converts.
Marvell indicates near $184.52 with no company news at all, on a day the wider market is up.
Notable · premarket · sector, not company
Friday close $187.56, +2.3%, having been up 8.8% intraday Premarket $184.52, about -1.6% Marvell has not reported this quarter and has announced nothing since June
Why it mattersFalling while the index rises is the whole story. Long yields did not fall with oil, and Marvell's custom-silicon programmes are funded years ahead of the revenue they produce. When the cost of that money stays high, investors pay less per dollar of future earnings, whatever crude does.
Already priced in?There is nothing company-specific to price. Do not read this as a Marvell event. It is the same funding-cost split that killed Friday's chip rally.
Would flip ifThe 30-year yield breaks back below 5%, which would restore the discount rate the group was valued on in June.
Next dateQ2 FY27 results, expected late August, not yet company-confirmed.
Intel indicates near $88.80, a second day of giving back Friday's early spike.
Notable · premarket · sector, not company
Friday: opened $96.72, high $97.90, closed $90.20, -1.0% on the day Premarket $88.80, about -1.6% Its quarter was 23 July. No filing or announcement since
Why it mattersIntel opened Friday up 6% and closed down 1%, and is now lower again. That pattern is capital cost, not chip demand. Intel funds the most expensive build-out on this list and earns the least from it today, so it is the purest read on what expensive long money does to a rebuild story.
Already priced in?No news to price. Flag the shape rather than the level: two sessions of selling into strength usually means holders are using rallies to leave.
Would flip ifA named foundry customer signs with a dollar value attached, which would put revenue against the capital for the first time.
Nebius indicates near $188 with nothing announced since July.
Notable · premarket · sector, not company
Friday close $190.41, +1.1%, after trading as high as $204.57 Premarket $188, about -1.3% Its $1B Reflection AI contract was 14 July. Q2 results are set for 12 August
Why it mattersNebius borrows to build data centres and bills the capacity out later, so it is the most rate-sensitive name here. Falling on a risk-on morning tells you the market is still pricing the cost of that debt, not the contracts. The gap between its $40B-plus contracted revenue and its share price is a financing question.
Already priced in?No company news in the window. This is the rates trade reaching the most leveraged name on the list.
Would flip ifThe 12 August results show contracted revenue converting to cash faster than the build-out consumes it.
Meta indicates near $563.50, extending Friday's 3.3% gain on no fresh news.
Notable · premarket · no company news
Friday close $556.71, +3.3% Premarket $563.50, about +1.2% Its capex guide of $130–145B came with the 29 July quarter
Why it mattersMeta sits between the two groups: heavy spending, but funded from advertising cash. Lower oil helps twice, by easing the discount rate and by leaving consumers with more to spend, which is what advertisers bid against. That second channel is why it can rise with software rather than with the chipmakers.
Already priced in?Premarket only, and no event behind it. Provisional.
Would flip ifYields resume climbing, which in July made the $130–145B capex look like a cost rather than an investment.
Tesla indicates near $314 with nothing company-specific since its 2 July delivery figures.
Minor · premarket · no company news
Friday close $311.21, +0.8%; premarket $314, about +0.9%
Why it mattersWorth one caution. Cheaper petrol is a mild negative for Tesla, because it shrinks the running-cost saving that sells an electric car. The stock is up anyway, which means it is trading with the index this morning rather than on its own economics.
Next dateJuly China registrations, due in the coming days.
Apple indicates near $310, steadying after Friday's 7.4% fall.
Minor · premarket · no company news
Friday close $308.91, -7.35%; premarket $310, about +0.35% The $0.27 dividend, declared 30 July, goes ex on 10 August
Why it mattersA third of a percent after a 7.4% fall is not a rebound, it is an absence of sellers. The supply-constraint guidance that caused Friday's drop is unchanged, and nothing has been released since. Treat the flat premarket as no new information, not as relief.
Next date10 August, dividend ex-date. Tim Cook hands over to John Ternus on 1 September.
Nvidia indicates near $200, slightly lower, with no company news in the window.
Minor · premarket · sector, not company
Friday close $200.75, +2.9%; premarket $200, about -0.4%
Why it mattersSmall in size, useful in direction. Nvidia falling while Microsoft rises nearly 2% is the day's split in one pair. The market is paying this morning for AI revenue that already exists and marking down the equipment that has to be financed first.
The IPO roadshow for Robinhood Ventures Fund II opens to the public today at noon ET.
Minor · premarket · dated event, no figures
Friday close $86.56, -0.05%; premarket $86.75, about +0.2% on thin trade RVII filed its Form N-2 on 30 June 2026. No offering size or price has been disclosed Q2, reported 29 July: revenue $1.308B, +32%; EPS $0.62
Why it mattersThis is a dated event with no number attached, so it stays minor until the size is filed. The reason to watch it: a second venture fund would add fee income that recurs, unlike trading revenue that rises and falls with volumes. Investors pay more per dollar of predictable fees.
Would flip ifThe pricing filing shows a fund large enough to move Robinhood's fee line, rather than a marketing exercise.
Next dateRoadshow today, noon ET. Q3 results 4 November.
Read-through
Oil fell 7%. Long yields fell 4 basis points. That gap explains the whole list
Last week's story was that expensive oil was driving inflation, and inflation was driving the yield that crushed long-duration tech. The weekend removed the oil. The yield stayed. The 30-year sits at 5.226%, four basis points off a 19-year high, after crude gave back a month of gains in one weekend. So the funding problem was never the war. Now watch the same dividing line reappear, premarket, exactly as it did on Friday. The names that fund growth from their own cash flow are up: Microsoft +1.8%, Alphabet +1.8%, Amazon +1.6%, Meta +1.2%. The names that fund it from capital markets are down: Marvell -1.6%, Intel -1.6%, Nebius -1.3%, Nvidia -0.4%. Two AI stories, opposite directions, on a morning when neither had any news. The asymmetry worth holding on to is Microsoft against Nvidia. Both sell the same boom. This morning the market pays for the one that already collects the revenue and discounts the one that must build the capacity first. Tonight's Palantir print is the clean test: it sells enterprise AI software with no capital intensity at all, so a strong US commercial number would confirm buyers are choosing monetisation over machinery, and a weak one would suggest they are simply hiding in size.
Nothing material
AAPL · AMZN · TSLA · MSFT · GOOGL · NVDA · INTC · NBIS · MRVL · META, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not today's news
Ten of the twelve had nothing company-specific in the window. The weekend produced no earnings, no filings and no contracts for this list, which is normal for a Saturday and Sunday. Everything moving before the bell is the Iran headline and the rates backdrop. Be careful with recycled coverage this morning: Apple's quarter was 30 July, Amazon's and Meta's were 29 July, Microsoft's was 28 July, Intel's was 23 July, Alphabet's and Tesla's were 22 July. Nebius's $1B Reflection AI contract was 14 July. Marvell has not reported. None of that is news from the past 24 hours.
Earnings within 14 days
3 AugPLTR Q2, tonight after the close, company-confirmed
Thursday night's verdicts held and grew. Amazon opened +12.5%, matching the premarket, then closed +15.3%. Apple closed -7.4%. The session extended both moves rather than fading them.
The chip rally died during the day. SOXX opened +4.4% and closed +0.1%. Intel opened +6.1% and closed -1.0%. Marvell gave back three quarters of an 8.8% gap.
The cause is bonds, not chips. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.25%, a 19-year high, as oil rose again on Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Timing note. This edition replaces the one sent at 07:00 New York this morning. This run fired at 19:52 New York, about 13 hours late, so the market has already closed. Every figure below is a settled Friday close, not a premarket guess. Where the morning edition could only offer provisional premarket reads, this one reports what actually happened.
Market-wide
Oil and yields, one chain. WTI closed above $85, up about 3.8% on the day and roughly 20% across July. Brent sits near $89.50, up about 22% in the month. The cause is renewed US-Iran hostilities and tankers turning back in the Strait of Hormuz
How it reaches these stocksOil feeds headline inflation, inflation raises the odds of a rate rise, and those odds lift the rate used to discount future profits. Fast-growing tech holds most of its profit far in the future, so it loses the most value per point of yield.
The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.25%, its highest in 19 years. The 10-year sat near 4.7%, with sources split between 4.71% and 4.75%. The officials who dissented in Wednesday's 9–3 hold said publicly on Friday that they favour raising rates
How it reaches these stocksThis is a funding cost now, not only a discount rate. Amazon's $220B and Meta's $130–145B capex plans are increasingly debt-financed. Dearer long money raises the cost of every data centre in them, which is why the most capital-hungry names fell hardest.
QQQ closed +0.65% at 687.99, after opening +1.25%. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,489.72; the Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 25,373.85; the Dow gained 0.53% to 52,485.03
Where the gauge disagreesRead this one carefully. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta alone should have added about 1.05 points to QQQ. It delivered 0.65. The other ninety-odd names were net negative. The index rose. The average Nasdaq stock did not.
Friday's full session confirmed and then extended Thursday night's AWS beat.
Major · bullish · settled
Closed +15.32% at $271.58 from $235.50 Its largest one-day gain in over a decade Opened +12.5%, matching Thursday's premarket, then added through the day Volume 126M shares against 45M on Wednesday, about 2.8x normal The quarter behind it: AWS $42.2B, +37%, fastest in 18 quarters; backlog $496B; capex guide raised to ~$220B
Why it mattersAn after-hours move on thin volume often unwinds at the open. This one did the opposite. Near three times normal volume means long-only institutions repriced the business, rather than fast money trading a headline. That distinction usually decides whether a gap holds or fills over the following weeks. The morning edition could only call the premarket provisional; the session has now settled it upward.
Already priced in?Yes, and settled rather than provisional now. Note what the market waved through: a Q3 revenue guide of $197–202B against $204B expected. It paid for AWS growth and the $496B backlog instead.
Would flip ifAWS growth stalls next quarter while capex stays at $220B, turning the spend into a margin problem before the contracted revenue arrives.
The September-quarter guide, not the quarter itself, set Apple's price all day.
Major · bearish · settled
Closed -7.35% at $308.91 from $333.43 Gapped down 8.6% at the open, then clawed back 1.4% through the session Volume 127M against 56M on Wednesday Reports differ on the size, some citing 7.2% and some 9.5%; the close gives 7.4% The guide behind it: September quarter +9–11% y/y against ~12% expected, down from +16%; gross margin guided to 47–48% from 50.1%
Why it mattersThe partial recovery from the open is the useful detail. Buyers turned up, which says the market reads this as a timing problem rather than a broken franchise. Cook said orders ran ahead of forecast, so a parts shortage is capping revenue while demand holds. A supply ceiling lifts when supply does. Failing demand does not.
Already priced in?Yes. The morning edition's premarket read of about -7% proved almost exactly right, which is unusual for premarket. The fall is the guidance: shares rose with the market during Thursday's session, before the release landed.
Would flip ifMemory contract prices ease, or Apple signals it will pass the cost through on the autumn iPhone.
Next dateSeptember-quarter results, late October; iPhone launch event expected September.
The asymmetry, and how the session judged it
Amazon guided revenue below expectations and rose 15%. Apple beat and guided to 9–11% growth, and fell 7%. Both blamed the same memory shortage. The difference is what the extra cost buys. Amazon's higher spending buys revenue-generating capacity against a $496B booked backlog, so its shortfall reads as revenue deferred. Apple's higher cost buys nothing. It compresses margin on a product whose price is already set, so its shortfall reads as revenue lost. A full session of heavy volume has now ratified that distinction rather than fading it.
Google DeepMind released new robotics models, Gemini Robotics 2 among them. No dollar figure was attached.
Major · bullish · no hard number
Closed +6.73% at $356.13 from $333.66 Opened only +2.35%, so most of the gain came during the session, not at the bell No contract value, no revenue guide, no filing Alphabet's quarter was reported 22 July, nine days earlier, and is not today's news
Why it mattersTreat this one with care. Nothing was sold and no revenue was booked, so none of Alphabet's near-term numbers changed. What rose is what investors will pay per dollar of existing earnings. That rests on belief about Alphabet's place in AI compute, and belief re-rates in both directions. A move of this size with no hard number under it is the least durable kind.
Already priced in?The move is settled, but there is no figure to compare it against. Read the size as sentiment, not as a repricing of known cash flows. Several outlets attributed Friday's gain to Alphabet's quarterly earnings; those landed on 22 July and were priced then.
Would flip ifA rival ships comparable robotics work, or the next quarter shows no revenue attached to it.
Intel gapped up hard on Amazon's raised capex, then sold off all day to close red. No company news.
Notable · sector, not company
Opened +6.1% at $96.72, closed -1.02% at $90.20 A 6.7% slide from the open, the largest reversal on the list SOXX opened +4.4% and closed +0.1% Intel last reported on 23 July, a week ago, not Friday
Why it mattersThis is the yield story landing in the most rate-sensitive corner of the list. Intel's foundry case rests on profit years out, so a jump in long rates cuts the present value of that profit hard. The market bought the Amazon read-through at the bell, then sold it as the 30-year climbed to a 19-year high. Nothing about Intel's customers or costs changed.
Already priced in?No company news existed to price. Do not read this as an Intel event. The reversal is a rates event that happened to Intel.
Would flip ifLong yields retreat, or a hyperscaler names Intel as a second source with a dollar value attached.
Next dateQ3 results, expected late October.
Asymmetry of the day
Alphabet rose 6.7% on a product release with no revenue attached. Intel handed back a 6.1% gap and closed red on no news at all. Both are AI stories. The difference is that Alphabet already sells compute, while Intel is still hoping to be asked. When funding costs jump, the market keeps paying for the story that has a business underneath it, and stops paying for the one that is still a hope.
Meta rebounded 3.3% with no fresh company news, after Wednesday's 9% fall on results.
Major · rebound · no news
Closed +3.28% at $556.71 Recovers only a slice of Wednesday's -9% Wednesday's quarter: revenue $60.8B, +28%; free cash flow $784M from ~$8.6B; capex guide $130–145B
Why it mattersA rebound of this size after a 9% fall recovers about a third of the damage and settles nothing. The question that sank Meta on Wednesday, whether its own revenue is accelerating enough to justify the spending, was not addressed by anything that happened on Friday. Note that rising long yields make that question harder, not easier, because the capex is increasingly debt-funded.
Already priced in?Nothing new to price. The move tracked the mega-cap tape.
Microsoft added another 3% with no fresh news, extending Wednesday's Azure quarter.
Major · continuation · no news
Closed +3.02% at $464.72 Follows Thursday's +16%, the largest one-day value gain by any stock ever Azure +43%, guided to 45% next quarter
Why it mattersTwo straight sessions of gains on one earnings report is unusual, and it tells you the repricing was too large for a single day to absorb. Microsoft's building programme is also the revenue line for much of the rest of this list, which is why its quarter keeps reaching other tickers days later.
Already priced in?Largely. No new information arrived on Friday.
Nvidia closed back above $200 with no company announcement.
Notable · read-through, not company news
Closed +2.93% at $200.75 Back above $200 Lagged the mega-cap winners despite the capex news
Why it mattersThe genuine read-through is arithmetic, not sentiment. Amazon's $220B and Meta's $130–145B capex budgets are Nvidia's order book, and Friday was the first full session in which the market could price Amazon's raise. That Nvidia gained under 3% on it suggests investors already assumed those budgets, so the confirmation added less than the size of the number implies.
Already priced in?No company news to price. The Amazon capex read-through is real but appears to have been largely expected.
Marvell opened up 8.8% and gave back three quarters of it by the close. No company news.
Notable · sector, not company
Opened +8.8% at $199.38, closed +2.32% at $187.56 A 5.9% slide from the open Marvell has not reported; its next release is late August at the earliest
Why it mattersCustom-silicon names are geared to hyperscaler budgets, so they gap hardest when those budgets are confirmed and fade hardest when funding costs rise. Friday delivered both in the same session. The shape of the day, a big gap that leaks away, is what a rates-driven tape looks like in a long-duration name.
Already priced in?No company news existed to price. Do not read this as a Marvell event.
Next dateQ2 results, expected late August or early September; sources differ.
Nebius opened up 6.6% and closed up just 1.1%, giving back most of the gap.
Notable · sector, not company
Opened +6.6% at $200.94, closed +1.05% at $190.41 A 5.2% slide from the open Follows Thursday's +26.7%, its biggest one-day gain of 2026 The $1B+ Reflection AI contract recycled by several outlets was signed 14 July
Why it mattersNebius is the clearest case of the rates effect on this list, because it borrows to build. A rising 30-year yield raises both the discount applied to its future profits and the actual cost of financing the data centres that produce them. That double hit is why a 6.6% gap could not survive the session, even with Amazon's capex raise supporting the story.
Already priced in?No company news in the window. Note that Thursday's 27% move was a forced seller being cleared out, not a change in what the business is worth.
Would flip ifLong yields retreat, or Nebius signs contracted revenue large enough to cover its build cost.
Next dateQ2 results, reported as 12 August, not company-confirmed.
Worth keeping straight
Several outlets ran Nebius's $1B+ Reflection AI contract again on Thursday and Friday as though it were fresh. It was signed on 14 July. Fresh coverage of an old event is still an old event, and it did not drive either day's move.
Palantir drifted up 0.7% ahead of Monday's results.
Minor · drift · reports Monday
Closed +0.65% at $123.06 Reports Monday 3 August, after the close, confirmed by the company
Why it mattersA flat drift into a results date means the market has no strong prior. That raises the size of the move Monday's numbers can produce, in either direction.
Next dateQ2 results, Monday 3 August, after the close.
Robinhood finished unchanged, two days after its Wednesday-night beat.
Minor · flat
Closed -0.05% at $86.56 Wednesday's quarter: revenue $1.308B, +32%, a record; EPS $0.62 against ~$0.41 expected Crypto revenue -38% y/y
Why it mattersA record quarter that produces a flat tape two days later is the market telling you it doubts the mix. Growth came from event contracts, a young line with unsettled regulation, while the high-margin crypto engine nearly halved. Investors pay less per dollar of earnings when they cannot tell whether those earnings recur.
Next date4 November.
Read-through
One rate move, showing up in three places
Friday had a single organising fact: the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high of 5.25%, driven by oil above $85 on Strait of Hormuz disruption. Follow it through the list. The most capital-hungry, longest-duration names gave back their gaps: Intel from +6.1% to -1.0%, Marvell from +8.8% to +2.3%, Nebius from +6.6% to +1.1%. The cash-generative mega caps kept theirs: Amazon +15.3%, Alphabet +6.7%, Meta +3.3%, Microsoft +3.0%. The dividing line is not chips against software. It is who funds their growth from cash and who funds it from borrowing. That is also why QQQ managed only +0.65% while six mega caps alone should have delivered about 1.05 points: beneath the winners, the average Nasdaq stock fell.
Nothing material
TSLA · PLTR · HOOD · MSFT · META · NVDA · INTC · MRVL · NBIS, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
What is not today's news
Only Amazon, Apple and Alphabet had anything company-specific in the window, and Alphabet's was a product release with no dollar figure attached. Everything else on this list moved on rates, oil and the tail of Wednesday and Thursday's earnings. Alphabet's quarter was 22 July. Tesla's was 22 July. Intel's was 23 July. Nebius's $1B Reflection AI contract was 14 July. Marvell has not reported at all. Several outlets recycled these as Friday news; they are not.
Earnings within 14 days
3 AugPLTR reports Monday, after the close, confirmed by the company
12 AugNBIS Q2, reported date, not company-confirmed
Thu 30 Jul 2026MSFT, NBIS, META, INTC, MRVL, HOOD
The 30-second version
Microsoft's cloud growth sped up instead of slowing. But its headline building budget went down, not up, and that is accounting rather than restraint.
Meta raised spending too and fell about 9%. The gap between the two reactions is the most useful thing on this page.
GDP came in weak and inflation ran hot this morning. Tech ignored it entirely.
Timing note. This run fired late. It was scheduled for 7am in New York, before the open. It ran at 3:15pm, with the market trading. Every price below is live intraday, not a close. The record above is not settled until the bell.
Market-wide
Second-quarter growth slowed to 1.5%, down from 2.1%, against forecasts near 2%
How it reaches these stocksWeaker growth reaches shoppers and business budgets first. That puts more of the risk on Amazon and Apple, which sell to consumers, than on Microsoft, which sells to committed enterprise contracts.
Prices rose faster at the same time: the index for what Americans buy rose 5.7%, up from 3.6%
How it reaches these stocksSlower growth with faster inflation removes the Fed's room to cut. High rates hurt fast-growing tech most. Their value sits in profits expected years out, and distant profits are worth less when money costs more.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% yesterday, with three officials dissenting in favour of a rise
How it reaches these stocksThree dissents in one direction is unusual. It signals that the next move is more likely up than down, which is the opposite of what a market priced on long-dated growth wants to hear.
The gauge contradicts all of it
The gaugeQQQ is up about 3.1%. Earnings are overriding macro today. But the rally is narrow and rests on a handful of results, so the macro risk is still sitting there unpriced.
Azure grew faster than last quarter, reported Wednesday after the close.
Major · bullish
Revenue $90.0B vs $87.6B expected (+18% y/y) EPS $4.74 vs $4.24 expected Azure +43%, up from 40% last quarter Contracted future revenue $678B, +84% y/y Calendar-2026 capex guide fell to ~$175B from ~$190B Value added ~$490B, would be a record if it holds to the close
Why it mattersThe $678B of signed but undelivered work is what changes the argument. The spending is backed by orders already placed, not by hope. That extends how many years of fast growth investors will assume, which lifts what they pay per dollar of earnings. Two cautions sit underneath the headline. Capex fell because more leases now count as rent rather than purchases, not because Microsoft is building less. And Microsoft stretched the assumed life of its data centres from 15 to 25 years, which lowers the annual cost charged against profit and flatters future earnings with no change in the business.
Already priced in?Yes, on live intraday prices. A 16% move is a full repricing. The record itself is provisional until the bell.
Would flip ifAzure growth slips back toward 40% next quarter.
A hedge fund holding a large Nebius stake was forced to sell out, and Citadel bought the book.
Major · flows, not company
Situational Awareness sold its entire public equity portfolio Triggered by margin calls from its three prime brokers Fund ran leverage as high as four times; was +439% through 30 June Its concentrated holdings fell 35–47% during July CoreWeave and IREN rose alongside it
Why it mattersThis changes who owns the shares, not what the company earns. A forced seller pushes a price below what the business is worth, because the selling is driven by a margin call rather than by any view on value. Removing that seller lets the price snap back. Nothing about Nebius's contracts, costs or customers changed today.
Flows, not companyA 27% move with no company news. Its $1B Reflection AI deal was signed on 14 July, and several sites are wrongly recycling it as today's driver.
Would flip ifCitadel resells the position into the open market.
Sales beat, profit missed badly, and Meta raised the floor of its spending range.
Major · bearish
Revenue $60.8B vs $60.3B expected (+28% y/y) EPS $6.18 vs $7.23 expected, and $7.14 a year ago Operating margin 31%, down from 43% 2026 capex floor raised to $130B from $125B Q3 sales guided $61–64B, midpoint below the $63.1B expected
Why it mattersRaising the floor of a spending range is a commitment. Raising the ceiling is only an option. Meta removed its own escape route. Guiding next quarter's sales below expectations while locking in higher spending squeezes profit from both ends at once. Margins falling 12 points in a year shows the cost landing now, while any payoff sits years away.
Already priced in?Yes. The 9% fall reflects it, on intraday prices.
Would flip ifQ3 shows margins stabilising.
Next dateQ3 results, late October.
The asymmetry worth understanding
Microsoft and Meta both raised spending sharply on the same night, to opposite verdicts. The difference is not the amount. It is what stands behind it. Microsoft can point to $678B of signed contracts. Meta cannot point to any. Investors call the first investment and the second cost. Alphabet failed the same test on 22 July, lifting capex to as much as $205B on its first negative free cash flow since listing, and fell about 7% the next day. Ask that question of every spending headline you read.
Intel announced nothing today. The move came entirely from the semiconductor sector.
Major · sector, not company
Lam Research +20% on its own results Samsung warned the memory shortage runs into 2028 Micron +13% · SanDisk +21% · AMD +13% Intel's own quarter was 23 July: revenue $16.1B (+25%), adjusted EPS $0.42 vs $0.21 expected
Why it mattersThis distinction is the whole point. A sector move can reverse as fast as it arrived, because nothing changed at the company itself. Intel's value still rests on industry-wide demand rather than on winning named foundry customers, and that demand can be taken back just as quickly as it was given.
Sector, not companyA 12% move with no company news. Read it as chip-sector beta, not as anything Intel did.
Marvell rose with the chip sector on the same drivers. It released no company news.
Major · sector, not company
Same drivers as Intel: Lam Research results, Samsung's memory warning, Microsoft's spending
Why it mattersMarvell sells custom silicon into exactly the data centres Microsoft is building, so it moves on hyperscaler spending news even when it says nothing itself. That makes the gain real but borrowed. It rests on someone else's capital budget rather than on any order Marvell has announced.
Sector, not companyNo company-specific event today.
A large profit beat, reported Wednesday after the close.
Notable · mixed
EPS $0.62 vs about $0.41 expected, and $0.42 a year ago Revenue $1.308B (+32% y/y), but in line with the $1.306B expected Prediction markets $156M, roughly 10× last year Crypto −38% · funded customers +7.2% y/y
Why it mattersThe beat came from costs and mix, not from selling more. Revenue landed almost exactly on expectations, so Robinhood is swapping one volatile engine for another rather than adding customers. Funded accounts growing 7.2% is the real constraint. Revenue per customer cannot rise forever, so slow customer growth eventually caps the model, and that is what sets the multiple investors pay.
Partly pricedWednesday's fall came before the results, not after them. It was not a reaction to this quarter.
Would flip ifAugust account additions reaccelerate.
Nvidia drifted up with the chip sector. No company news.
Minor · sector, not company
Notably lagged the sector, Intel +12%, Marvell +10%, Micron +13%
Why it mattersThe gap is the interesting part. Nvidia rose least among the large chip names on a day built around AI spending. That suggests investors already assume its demand, so hyperscaler capex news adds little to the case, while it still adds a lot to companies whose orders are less certain.
Sector, not companyNo company-specific event today.
Apple reports fiscal Q3 results after the close tonight, roughly 30 minutes after this brief goes out.
Minor · pending
Expected revenue ~$110B Expected EPS ~$1.88 vs $1.57 a year ago
Why it mattersNothing has happened yet. This is a scheduled event, not news. The one structural item: this is Tim Cook's last results call before John Ternus becomes chief executive on 1 September. Succession and strategy comments therefore carry more weight than the quarter's numbers do.
Amazon reports Q2 results after the close tonight, roughly 30 minutes after this brief goes out.
Minor · pending
Expected revenue ~$196B Expected EPS ~$1.82 vs $1.68 a year ago AWS growth seen near 31%, up from 28% last quarter
Why it mattersScheduled event. The reaction will not turn on revenue. It will turn on whether Amazon can show contracted demand sitting behind its spending, the way Microsoft could and Meta could not. That is the test the market applied to both companies last night, and it is the one that matters tonight.
Next dateTonight, after the close.
Correction to this morning's edition
Today's earlier edition said Microsoft guided FY27 capex to $255–260B against about $190B this year. That is wrong. The headline guide actually fell to about $175B, on an accounting change that reclassifies more leases as rent rather than purchases; underlying spending plans are unchanged. It also gave Meta's expected EPS as $7.14, which was the year-ago figure; the estimate was $7.23. And it treated Microsoft's record one-day gain as settled, which it is not until the close.
Read-through
Where Microsoft's spending lands
A cloud company's building programme is revenue for the companies it buys from, which is most of why chips rallied today on news that was technically about a software company. Read the lower headline capex figure carefully though. Underlying spending is unchanged and management guided next year higher, so the read-through to the chip suppliers (NVDA, MRVL, INTC) and to the smaller cloud builders (NBIS) still holds.
Nothing material
TSLA · GOOGL · PLTR, no company-specific events in the past 24 hours.
Three things that are not today's news
Tesla and Alphabet both reported on 22 July. Alphabet's capex rise to as much as $205B and its first negative free cash flow since listing are eight days old, and the 7% fall happened on 23 July. Palantir's sovereign-AI deal with Nvidia and its US Army win were 1–2 July. Fresh coverage of an old event is still an old event.
Earnings within 14 days
30 JulAAPL and AMZN report tonight, after the close
3 AugPLTR reports Monday, after the close
Live news · checked every 5 minutes
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Only concrete, dated items: results and guidance, M&A, issuance, buybacks, dividends, contracts, and regulatory or legal action. Price targets, ratings and opinion pieces are filtered out. Selection is a keyword rule applied to headlines, not a judgement, so read it as a wire to check rather than a verdict, and date anything before relying on it: recycled coverage of an old event is an old event.
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Earnings
Two questions, asked of every quarterly report these
twelve companies have filed since 2020. Does a stock
drift up in the weeks before it reports, and what does the price
actually do in the hours after? Both are measured the same way
throughout: against what that same stock does on an ordinary stretch of trading,
because most of these names drift upward anyway and a number that ignores that
flatters every one of them. The tables rebuild every day, so a stock that stops
behaving this way will stop showing it here.
Coming up
None of the twelve is inside the four-week window. The next to enter it is TSLA, reporting 2026-10-21, 1 sessions away. Sessions counted are trading days, not calendar days, and the last
two columns are that stock's own record in the tables below, not a forecast
of this one.
Reports ahead, nearest first
Stock
Reports
Sessions away
Window
Past median
Rose / usual
TSLA
2026-10-21
21
1 to go
-1.85%
42%/55%
INTC
2026-10-22
22
2 to go
+1.08%
58%/52%
GOOGL
2026-10-28
26
6 to go
+6.56%
81%/61%
AAPL
2026-10-29
27
7 to go
+1.61%
62%/62%
Dates marked est are projected from
the same quarter last year because the company has not confirmed one yet.
Everything on this page was recalculated on 2026-09-22.
Before the report
Buy at the close four weeks before the report, sell at the last close before
the news reaches the tape. Among the stocks with a full record the gains run
from +7.52% on
NVDA down to -1.85%
on TSLA, and the ordering is not what the headlines would suggest.
Ignore NBIS near the top: one of the twelve has fewer than 12 reports on file, too short a record to mean much.
Four weeks before the report: 20 trading sessions
Stock
Median
Edge
Rose / usual
Best run
Typical dip
Repeats?
NBIS
+10.69%
-1.89%
57%/67%
3
-27.19%
below base
NVDA
+7.52%
+3.51%
85%/65%
15
-8.19%
p 0.022
GOOGL
+6.56%
+4.01%
81%/61%
10
-4.54%
p 0.026
PLTR
+4.63%
+2.31%
56%/55%
5
-12.49%
p 0.53
MRVL
+3.76%
+1.21%
69%/58%
5
-10.16%
p 0.16
META
+3.70%
+1.13%
62%/58%
5
-7.63%
p 0.43
MSFT
+3.69%
+2.16%
73%/57%
7
-5.43%
p 0.071
AMZN
+3.01%
+0.60%
62%/60%
4
-6.16%
p 0.53
HOOD
+1.75%
+0.39%
50%/52%
4
-12.28%
below base
AAPL
+1.61%
-0.58%
62%/62%
4
-5.54%
below base
INTC
+1.08%
+0.84%
58%/52%
7
-8.50%
p 0.34
TSLA
-1.85%
-4.08%
42%/55%
5
-12.19%
below base
Edge is the part that matters: the median gain minus what the same
stock returns over any random stretch of the same length. Repeats? asks
whether the stock rose into earnings more often than it usually rises, tested
against its own record. Two clear it. NVDA rose into 22 of its last 26 reports against a 65% norm. GOOGL rose into 21 of its last 26 reports against a 61% norm.
NVDA's run of 15 consecutive positive
quarters is the longest in the study.
Read that with one hand on the brake. Two window
lengths were tested across twelve stocks, which is 24 looks at
the data; at that many, roughly one result crossing the 5% line is what chance
alone produces. NVDA and GOOGL do not survive a correction for having looked that many times. Treat them as the best candidates found, not as established facts.
Two weeks before the report: 10 trading sessions, for comparison
Stock
Median
Edge
Rose / usual
Best run
Typical dip
Repeats?
NBIS
+13.61%
+9.14%
71%/61%
3
-9.21%
p 0.43
NVDA
+4.43%
+2.17%
73%/59%
3
-5.32%
p 0.10
HOOD
+3.04%
+2.04%
65%/53%
5
-7.09%
p 0.19
MSFT
+2.34%
+1.49%
67%/57%
7
-3.91%
p 0.21
MRVL
+2.01%
+1.07%
58%/54%
4
-6.95%
p 0.43
META
+1.89%
+0.67%
67%/57%
6
-5.06%
p 0.20
GOOGL
+1.51%
+0.42%
70%/59%
7
-3.98%
p 0.16
INTC
+0.80%
+0.79%
56%/50%
5
-5.69%
p 0.35
AMZN
+0.47%
-0.40%
59%/56%
4
-3.99%
p 0.45
AAPL
+0.23%
-1.04%
56%/59%
4
-3.34%
below base
PLTR
-0.34%
-1.55%
50%/54%
4
-8.76%
below base
TSLA
-0.62%
-2.07%
48%/55%
3
-7.06%
below base
Halving the window roughly halves the gain and dissolves the significance:
the best ten-session result is NVDA at
p 0.10,
nothing reaching the 5% line.
Whatever this effect is, it needs the longer runway. It also costs less to hold,
since the typical dip along the way is -5.51% against -8.34% over the
longer window.
Every quarter, oldest to newest
A median hides the shape. These are the individual quarters at four weeks,
so a steady record can be told apart from one good run carrying an average.
NVDA22/26 up · +7.52%
usually 65% · worst -7.83%
GOOGL21/26 up · +6.56%
usually 61% · worst -16.12%
MSFT19/26 up · +3.69%
usually 57% · worst -15.73%
MRVL18/26 up · +3.76%
usually 58% · worst -17.73%
AAPL16/26 up · +1.61%
usually 62% · worst -11.25%
AMZN16/26 up · +3.01%
usually 60% · worst -15.51%
META16/26 up · +3.70%
usually 58% · worst -23.91%
INTC15/26 up · +1.08%
usually 52% · worst -23.92%
NBIS4/7 up · +10.69%
usually 67% · worst -18.83%
PLTR13/23 up · +4.63%
usually 55% · worst -31.75%
HOOD10/20 up · +1.75%
usually 52% · worst -32.08%
TSLA11/26 up · -1.85%
usually 55% · worst -26.18%
The eve of the report
A common worry is that a stock sells off the day before it reports. Across
all 293 events it does not: the final session is
+0.16%
at the median and falls only 46% of the time,
against 48% on an ordinary day. Where it shows up at all
it is a matter of one or two names, not a habit of the group.
The five weakest final sessions before a report
Stock
Median move
Fell / usual
NBIS
-1.22%
71%/49%
HOOD
-0.48%
60%/49%
NVDA
-0.24%
54%/46%
MSFT
-0.04%
50%/47%
MRVL
+0.08%
46%/48%
After the report
The second question, and the more surprising answer. Measured from the
opening bell of the first session after a report to four hours later, a stock
that beat expectations has a median move of
-0.75% and is higher only
36.8% of the time. A stock that missed does the
opposite: +0.51%, higher
54.3% of the time.
Good news reliably going down is not a paradox, it is a question of where the
clock starts. The news is already in the price by the opening bell. A beat gaps
the stock up +2.00% overnight, a miss gaps it down
-5.14%, and the hours that follow lean back against
whichever way the opening auction overshot. Anyone measuring the reaction from
the open is measuring the correction, not the news.
What actually decides it
Neither the direction of the surprise nor its size. The size of the overnight
gap does, and it does so identically in both directions: large gaps carry on,
small ones give it back.
After a beat, by size of the gap
Opening gap
Next four hours
n
Gapped down
-0.85%
95
Gap 0 to 3%
-1.00%
32
Gap 3 to 8%
-1.10%
54
Gap over 8%
+0.18%
47
After a miss, by size of the gap
Opening gap
Next four hours
n
Down over 8%
-0.83%
18
Down 0 to 8%
+0.86%
17
Up 0 to 8%
+0.22%
7
Up over 8%
+0.31%
4
The stocks that fade hardest on good news
Open to four hours later, after a beat
Stock
Median
Higher / usual
t
TSLA
-2.08%
29%/50%
-1.90
HOOD
-1.81%
29%/50%
-1.08
INTC
-1.56%
33%/50%
-2.39
META
-1.34%
32%/52%
-2.18
GOOGL
-1.29%
18%/54%
-1.14
MSFT
-0.90%
24%/51%
-1.80
Only INTC and META separate from their own base rate here, and both do so downward.
TSLA has the largest median drop at -2.08%,
on 17 reports.
Note that no stock in the set shows a reliable upward move after a beat.
One number worth distrusting
The 17 occasions where earnings landed exactly on the estimate
have a median of -1.87% and are higher
only 23.5% of the time, worse than the misses. That is
almost certainly an artefact: landing exactly on an estimate is usually a
rounding coincidence on a low forecast rather than a real category of event. It
is reported here because omitting an inconvenient number is how a study starts
misleading.
Sources and limits
Prices
Thirty-minute bars for all 12 tickers,
2020-01-03 to 2026-09-21, from
Twelve Data. Around 1,529 trading sessions per
stock, 18,352 in total.
Earnings dates and figures
Reported date, release timing, reported and estimated earnings per share,
from Alpha Vantage. 293 reports in total. Upcoming
dates come from the same source where the company has confirmed one, and are
projected from the year-ago quarter where it has not.
How current
Rebuilt every weekday morning from the same two sources. Prices are topped
up to the last completed session, so a report that lands overnight is in these
numbers the following morning. A day when the data providers cannot be reached
leaves the previous numbers standing rather than publishing a partial rebuild.
What counts as the reaction
The first regular session that opens after the release: the next
trading day for an after-hours release, the same day for a pre-market one.
Not included
Guidance and revenue, which routinely move these stocks more than the
earnings line itself. No options data of any kind: no implied volatility, no
premiums. A move in the share price is not the return on a contract.
Sample
7 to 26
reports per stock is enough to rank and not enough to confirm.
NBIS has 7, which is why the thin rows are called out above. Every
window length reported here was fixed before testing, and both are shown rather
than only the flattering one.
Nothing on this page is financial advice, a recommendation,
or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. It is a description of what a set of
past prices did, published for interest. Past patterns do not predict future
returns, and a pattern that survives a statistical test can still be a
coincidence. Anyone acting on this does so entirely at their own risk and should
take professional advice first.
I write Ticker Brief, a daily pre-market note on twelve companies, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Palantir, Microsoft, Alphabet, Robinhood, Nvidia, Intel, Nebius, Marvell and Meta. It goes out every weekday morning before the US market opens.
The rule behind it is simple. Anyone can find the numbers; what is hard is knowing why a number changes what a company is worth. So every figure here comes with the mechanism attached, what it moves in the business, and why that changes the price. Opinion pieces, analyst price targets and commentary are excluded by design.
Each edition is dated, sourced from company filings and results, and kept permanently in the archive below. When a figure is uncertain or two sources disagree, the brief says so rather than picking the tidier number.